The Aaron Jones 2021 FA thread.

[Pokerbrat2000]

My only question with not resigning Jones is "who do you have to pick up the slack?" It is no secret that Jones was a heavy contributor in the success of the Packers offense over the last 2 years and prior to him, there was more of a reliance on the passing game. So if the Packers want to continue to run MLF's offense, who picks up the slack?

Trust me, I don't want to see Jones resigned at the money I see being talked about that it might take to do it. However, if they don't resign him, the Packers are going to need a contingency plan better than "We are going with Dillon and Juice Williams". The good news, with the cap issues hitting most teams, there probably will be a decent FA vet running back with some tread left on him that will play for under $4M/year.

 

[tynimiller]

My only question with not resigning Jones is "who do you have to pick up the slack?" It is no secret that Jones was a heavy contributor in the success of the Packers offense over the last 2 years and prior to him, there was more of a reliance on the passing game. So if the Packers want to continue to run MLF's offense, who picks up the slack?

Trust me, I don't want to see Jones resigned at the money I see being talked about that it might take to do it. However, if they don't resign him, the Packers are going to need a contingency plan better than "We are going with Dillon and Juice Williams". The good news, with the cap issues hitting most teams, there probably will be a decent FA vet running back with some tread left on him that will play for under $4M/year.

While it isn't a ton of situations, the team has answered the bell without Jones being playable due to injuries he has succumbed to over the past two years. Whether that has been Dillon, Williams or both point production was not impacted measurably.

NONE of that changes that Jones is special, but IMO the majority of what Jones does can be supplemented by committee...what you will undoubtedly lose is the massive home run threat he offers especially in second half of games when he seemed to be hitting stride while defenses were wearing down...

That $4M/Year if you want to spend on someone should be on Williams - a contract I still think we will eventually seen offered and accepted to keep Williams here since Aaron Jones talks are pretty much done at this point. The problem is even Williams may be able to get more guaranteed elsewhere than Packers are willing to spend.

 

[Mondio]

No doubt there is a lot of production that will need to be accounted for somehow in this offense. I don't see Juice Williams as being a viable option. He just doesn't strike me as the guy we could count on. But I don't see how it would be smart to pay Jones 10+ million per and reports are he's asking for 12-14?

 

[tynimiller]

Folks may call me nuts, but we are much better suited to handle with this offense and staff presently to cover the Jones loss vs King or Linsley even...

 

[Mondio]

Folks may call me nuts, but we are much better suited to handle with this offense and staff presently to cover the Jones loss vs King or Linsley even...

and since we're likely losing them too, i'm more concerned that money and resources be spent back on lines on both sides of the ball and DB really before anything else.

Though I think where we are in the draft again, I would not be surprised to see a highly rated WR available and it being our pick in the 1st because of how things fall. On the list of concerns, losing Jones is down there for me at around 5th and like you say, probably the more likely of losses that we can account for. It will look a little different in that it won't be him making explosive plays, but I think this offense will still be good enough to get to where we want to.

I'd hope we can keep Williams, but he might get a big contract from someone too. Not 10+ million big, but bigger than the offer for a "solid" RB we might make.

 

[Poppa San]

I just don't see him coming back
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/aaron-jones-21924/market-value/

Market Value

• 4 yrs, $58,470,544
• Avg. Salary: $14,617,636

 

[Mavster]

Let him walk and draft a back in the middle rounds. They're a dime a dozen

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Let him walk and draft a back in the middle rounds. They're a dime a dozen

While it's not true that Jones could be that easily replaced the Packers simply don't have the cap space to re-sign him.

 

[Pkrjones]

At this moment, without any of the cap-reducing moves that are used by teams there are 19 teams with positive cap to spend and 13 teams in the red. Not sure if AJ will get his "market value" of $14+Mil/yr. but there are more teams than I expected that could be in play for his services... but GB isn't one of them at approx. that price.

 

[Half Empty]

Per the thread title, and not comparing Jones to Barry Sanders in any other way, and not really sure if it's positive or negative, it appears he's a feast-or-famine player. In 2020, he had six games with 90+ yards, averaging from 5.29-9.4 YPC. In the remaining ten, his totals ranged from 15-71 and YPC from 1.5-4.73, quite pedestrian. I realize attempts, opponents, game flow, et. al. are other factors, but I'd really gotten the feeling that he was really special, something these stats don't support.

 

[tynimiller]

Per the thread title, and not comparing Jones to Barry Sanders in any other way, and not really sure if it's positive or negative, it appears he's a feast-or-famine player. In 2020, he had six games with 90+ yards, averaging from 5.29-9.4 YPC. In the remaining ten, his totals ranged from 15-71 and YPC from 1.5-4.73, quite pedestrian. I realize attempts, opponents, game flow, et. al. are other factors, but I'd really gotten the feeling that he was really special, something these stats don't support.

Yup quite a few of us have shared how his production doesn't match the feeling or caliber player he "can" be for a team. Truly a feast or famine type...but holy crap those feast moments are SPECIAL.

 

[pacmaniac]

Per the thread title, and not comparing Jones to Barry Sanders in any other way, and not really sure if it's positive or negative, it appears he's a feast-or-famine player. In 2020, he had six games with 90+ yards, averaging from 5.29-9.4 YPC. In the remaining ten, his totals ranged from 15-71 and YPC from 1.5-4.73, quite pedestrian. I realize attempts, opponents, game flow, et. al. are other factors, but I'd really gotten the feeling that he was really special, something these stats don't support.

Jones only had 1 bad game this season, in Week 6. He had a couple games with YPC between 3.5-4.0, but all other games were above 4.0. He had several games with seemingly low total yards, but then all of those were with 15 or fewer carries.

 

[swhitset]

Jones only had 1 bad game this season, in Week 6. He had a couple games with YPC between 3.5-4.0, but all other games were above 4.0. He had several games with seemingly low total yards, but then all of those were with 15 or fewer carries.

I’d say 2 fumbles in the NFCCG would be a bad game:

 

[Firethorn1001]

Didn't realize that the franchise tag on RBs is only about $8M this year? Seems like a no-brainer then to franchise him this year. If Miami really wants him then tag and trade and get something if they don't want to pay the 8M or Jones threatens to sit without a long term deal in place.

 

[thequick12]

Didn't realize that the franchise tag on RBs is only about $8M this year? Seems like a no-brainer then to franchise him this year. If Miami really wants him then tag and trade and get something if they don't want to pay the 8M or Jones threatens to sit without a long term deal in place.

Is that correct? I've seen that too in which case I agree. But most stuff I've seen has said the number for running backs is 11 million...I know there is no official number yet because salary cap hasnt been set yet

 

[Firethorn1001]

Is that correct? I've seen that too in which case I agree. But most stuff I've seen has said the number for running backs is 11 million...I know there is no official number yet because salary cap hasnt been set yet

Profootballrumors had an article on it this morning and Ian Rapoport mentioned the number at $8M so.. who knows if 100% accurate. Would think those numbers would be set in stone relatively soon though.

 

[Pkrjones]

Is that correct? I've seen that too in which case I agree. But most stuff I've seen has said the number for running backs is 11 million...I know there is no official number yet because salary cap hasnt been set yet

According to Overthecap.com the Transition tag is $8.9mil, Franchise tag is $11.1mil.

Jones turned down(supposedly) multi-year deal a few $mil/yr MORE than that.

 

[PackerDNA]

Jones won't be back. This is likely his one shot at a big contract he's got to go for the gold.

 

[gopkrs]

I think it would suck of us to franchise him. For the very reason a lot of people don't want to pay him. I like the guy. This business does not have to always be cutthroat. I'm not saying being nice all the time but I would make an exception with him. Just the way I feel about it. Now if we use it for leverage to sign or trade him...I guess I would be up for that. But if push came to shove; I would let him walk.

 

[Firethorn1001]

According to Overthecap.com the Transition tag is $8.9mil, Franchise tag is $11.1mil.

Jones turned down(supposedly) multi-year deal a few $mil/yr MORE than that.

There was a tweet from OTC that said their site was incorrect and the numbers in the tweet on 2/7 were the expected #'s (which was a little over $8M for a RB)

If the Packers tagged him, I wouldn't expect him to play at that number. Really the tag would just be to probably trade him.

 

[thequick12]

I think it would suck of us to franchise him. For the very reason a lot of people don't want to pay him. I like the guy. This business does not have to always be cutthroat. I'm not saying being nice all the time but I would make an exception with him. Just the way I feel about it. Now if we use it for leverage to sign or trade him...I guess I would be up for that. But if push came to shove; I would let him walk.

We're trying to win if the number is 8 million you do the smart thing and tag him. It's nothing personal you just want to do what's best for you. Then you have the leverage in a trade, which is what happens most of the time in these situations because I'm sure his agent wouldn't let him play the year on that franchise tag

 

[mradtke66]

We're trying to win if the number is 8 million you do the smart thing and tag him. It's nothing personal you just want to do what's best for you. Then you have the leverage in a trade, which is what happens most of the time in these situations because I'm sure his agent wouldn't let him play the year on that franchise tag

The concern is the single year deal. 8 million isn't horrible, but you lose the ability to spread the cap hit out over 4 years.

Hypothetically, a 15 million signing bonus bonus and a year one salary of the vet minimum works out to less than 5 million in year one.

Of course, I don't know the numbers we're offering or what he's looking for, but the structure of the contract is the issue. A franchise tag removes that flexibility.

 

[thequick12]

The concern is the single year deal. 8 million isn't horrible, but you lose the ability to spread the cap hit out over 4 years.

Hypothetically, a 15 million signing bonus bonus and a year one salary of the vet minimum works out to less than 5 million in year one.

Of course, I don't know the numbers we're offering or what he's looking for, but the structure of the contract is the issue. A franchise tag removes that flexibility.

There's a deadline but using the tag doesn't prevent the team and player for working out a long term deal. But yeah obviously about not being able to spread the cap hit out. 8 m is a lot but I think it would be doable

 

[tynimiller]

I 100% understand the sentiment of not franchising to trade, but in the end this is a business. We've seen this type of agreement done before and honestly I think it is entirely fair thing to do. The question is just what is a team willing to give up for Aaron? Miami already made the most sense and with their plethora of draft picks (well top heavy plethora) they could be the perfect suitor...

 

[gopkrs]

I 100% understand the sentiment of not franchising to trade, but in the end this is a business. We've seen this type of agreement done before and honestly I think it is entirely fair thing to do. The question is just what is a team willing to give up for Aaron? Miami already made the most sense and with their plethora of draft picks (well top heavy plethora) they could be the perfect suitor...

I don't know why Miami would be willing to trade for Jones. It sounds like they might already be willing to pay him top dollar. If I were them I would just wait for The Pack to release him. What am I missing? Is it that they would save a couple million dollars on the franchise tag for a year (to be built in on a long term contract)?