Rebuild a new LaFleur offense or get what Pettine needs on defense?

[Deleted member 6794]

And they had the second highest yards per completion in the whole league. Second to KC. Again, they're a top 5 passing offense. Not that it means much, but Monken wouldn't have been a hot coaching candidate with an average offense. Evans, Humphries, Godwin, Jackson was probably the top WR corps in the entire NFL. Howard and Brate probably a top 5 TE duo (when healthy). When Fitzmagic was throwing the ball he had a 100.4 QB rating (9th amongst mentionable starting QB's).

Top 5.

Once again, there's no reason to ignore the Buccaneers league leading 26 interceptions. Therefore they weren't a top five passing offense.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Once again, there's no reason to ignore the Buccaneers league leading 26 interceptions. Therefore they weren't a top five passing offense.

Well, I'm just gonna leave this here. This guy knows more than the both of us as he analyzes NFL stats for a living.

 

[GleefulGary]

We are more of a two year project than a one year project.

I'm not against signing free agents, I think we need to, but this isn't the year to go all out.

If we're going to go all the way up against our cap by signing aging free agents, then the year to do that is 2020, not this year. With the rest of our roster, the new coaching change, the amount of draft picks we have coming up, it just makes more sense to go all out in 2020 if we're going to go all out.

I think we can be a playoff team in 2019, but not a SB contender. But ya never know, with a great QB anything is possible.

 

[Mondio]

We are more of a two year project than a one year project.

I'm not against signing free agents, I think we need to, but this isn't the year to go all out.

If we're going to go all the way up against our cap by signing aging free agents, then the year to do that is 2020, not this year. With the rest of our roster, the new coaching change, the amount of draft picks we have coming up, it just makes more sense to go all out in 2020 if we're going to go all out.

I think we can be a playoff team in 2019, but not a SB contender. But ya never know, with a great QB anything is possible.

No kidding, the new coach doesn't even really know for sure what he has in players, what he feels he can get out of them, or who he feels he needs to replace. they haven't had a single practice together, MaLF has a lot to learn about this team and this team has a ways to go before they start reaching for it.

There seem to be a few posters that would be just as satisfied sinking the next 5 years in one off season and they don't even see it.

 

[brandon2348]

No kidding, the new coach doesn't even really know for sure what he has in players, what he feels he can get out of them, or who he feels he needs to replace. they haven't had a single practice together, MaLF has a lot to learn about this team and this team has a ways to go before they start reaching for it.

There seem to be a few posters that would be just as satisfied sinking the next 5 years in one off season and they don't even see it.

Rodgers drops back. Gets sacked and leg snaps.

Your big 5 year plan just went right out the window. We have to go after it now!

 

[Mondio]

do you realize your 1 year plan just went out the window and sunk us for 5 more years. At least i'd have a chance against next year LOL You'd be doing the same thing all over again with less to work with.

 

[brandon2348]

do you realize your 1 year plan just went out the window and sunk us for 5 more years. At least i'd have a chance against next year LOL You'd be doing the same thing all over again with less to work with.

Rodgers is one more significant injury away from this whole show being over. We need to go after a Super Bowl every year from here on out.

That decision was made when they gave Rodgers the extension.

 

[brandon2348]

As i've posted elsewhere the goal from here on out should be to get Rodgers as many weapons as possible.

Its our only chance.

 

[Mondio]

yeah, because clearly no team can win a Super Bowl without Aaron Rodgers. Better to make a bunch of desperate decisions on top of new coaching staffs and new offense. Make these decisions before the players and new coaches even get their feet under them. It's the only way

 

[GreenNGold_81]

yeah, because clearly no team can win a Super Bowl without Aaron Rodgers. Better to make a bunch of desperate decisions on top of new coaching staffs and new offense. Make these decisions before the players and new coaches even get their feet under them. It's the only way

I don't know about desperate decisions... I think you can make a top ten offense with just picking the right players (and staying healthy I suppose).

WR: Adams, Humphries, MVS...
RB: Jacobs (if he's there at 30), Jones, Williams
TE: Graham, Brate, Kendricks
O-line: FA RG, two early picks on O-line including an RT for depth.

That would be one somewhat realistic offseason that would give us two legit TE's (we'd have to trade for Brate), round out our WR corps, and improve our offensive line. As long as we're making sound decisions we should get there.

 

[brandon2348]

yeah, because clearly no team can win a Super Bowl without Aaron Rodgers. Better to make a bunch of desperate decisions on top of new coaching staffs and new offense. Make these decisions before the players and new coaches even get their feet under them. It's the only way

Yes, Mondio we are somewhat "desperate". The sooner you realize that the easier it will be to understand the moves we need to make.

We have a QB with a 100 million guaranteed $. Let me repeat that "100 million fully guaranteed". How does that sound?

To me it sounds like were in "win now mode".

 

[Mondio]

I don't know about desperate decisions... I think you can make a top ten offense with just picking the right players (and staying healthy I suppose).

WR: Adams, Humphries, MVS...
RB: Jacobs (if he's there at 30), Jones, Williams
TE: Graham, Brate, Kendricks
O-line: FA RG, two early picks on O-line including an RT for depth.

That would be one somewhat realistic offseason that would give us two legit TE's (we'd have to trade for Brate), round out our WR corps, and improve our offensive line. As long as we're making sound decisions we should get there.

I think the far more successful and realistic path to success is picking the right players. Desperate moves are for people that like to lose. The only way I see going for anything high priced is if it's a young player that they determine they must have and invest in him for the next 4-5 years. A player they don't think there is a good possibility of drafting and having hit a stride in a year or so, or a player they don't think they can pick up in FA next year.

I think this team is too far away to start reaching for patches that will take us to the top this year, but with the right moves could easily be a team that doesn't really need to reach for anything this time next year.

 

[OldSchool101]

Most damning, in my point of view, is how little having a successful running back is to over-all wins.

If that’s the meat of your argument, you’re grossly incorrect. It’s an absolute fact that 4 of the leagues top 6 producing RBs are on teams that made the playoffs (66% of the top 6 RBs are on “winning teams” above .500, while only 37.5% of the leagues teams make the playoffs).
The myth that RBs are not important in today’s game is a factual untruth. I’ve also noticed how some people conveniently forget that RBs are used multi-purpose in the passing game (not to mention ST return game). These stats are either conveniently ignored OR articles with nothing more than conjecture are put in their place or both.

It’s also an absolute myth in here that the best RBs are found in latter rounds. The top 4 producing RBs in 2018 were ALL picked inside the top #10 overall. Literally, those same RBs overall production was EXACTLY in order of their draft (that stat actually went at least 6 RBs deep).

Youre welcome to have an opinion, but not all opinions support the facts.

I’m 100% ok with someone just not liking the RB position, but be prepared to back it with hard concrete facts

 

[mradtke66]

If that’s the meat of your argument, you’re grossly incorrect. It’s an absolute fact that 4 of the leagues top 6 producing RBs are on teams that made the playoffs (66% of the top 6 RBs are on “winning teams” above .500, while only 37.5% of the leagues teams make the playoffs).

Here's the part where we have to start arguing correlation vs. causation.

I will say that the biggest stat that correlates with "good teams" is passer rating. Yards, yards per carry, etc, does not. In fact, sometimes it's the reverse: Score a lot of points early with the pass, grind out the clock with low yards-per-carry against a loaded box to protected the lead. Bad rushing stats, but more wins.

The myth that RBs are not important in today’s game is a factual untruth.

Ah, but I never said they were unimportant.

I’ve also noticed how some people conveniently forget that RBs are used multi-purpose in the passing game (not to mention ST return game). These stats are either conveniently ignored OR articles with nothing more than conjecture are put in their place or both.

But I'm not spending high picks for a special teamer.

Similarly 3rd down backs tend not to be valued by anyone, in terms of draft capital. Yeah, those guys are useful, but a lot of them are 3rd down backs because they're tweeners.

It’s also an absolute myth in here that the best RBs are found in latter rounds. The top 4 producing RBs in 2018 were ALL picked inside the top #10 overall. Literally, those same RBs overall production was EXACTLY in order of their draft (that stat actually went at least 6 RBs deep).

I'm not arguing production. I'm arguing victory. In the extreme example, 2000 yards means squat if you aren't in the post season.


I guess the crux of my argument is the difference between the 1st or 2nd best and 15th best running back in the league is negligible. Elliot was no.1 (1-4) in yards, Barkley no. 2 . Sony Michel was 15th (1-31). Marlon Mack of the Colts (4-143) was 16th in yards yards, but had more TDs and a higher yards per carry.

And then there's they Saints and Alvin Kamara: good player, 3rd round pick.

 

[OldSchool101]

Ah, but I never said they were unimportant.

You Explicitly listed both types of RBs last and next to last out of 11 positions in what you called “ranked in value”. You’re back peddling here.

I will say that the biggest stat that correlates with "good teams" is passer rating. Yards, yards per carry, etc, does not. In fact, sometimes it's the reverse:

Today’s RBs also catch passes. Since when did passer rating not include RBs production? Those 2 positions are not mutual exclusive

Points win games.....whoever scored the most points wins... FG’s, Extra points, Defensive TDs, Defensive Safety’s + Offensive TDs combined.. whoever has the most points wins.

A. the top 5 RBs in 2018 scored 87 TDs

B. the top 5 WRs in 2018 scored 65 TDs

And don’t try to say the WRs gave them the ball at the goal line because the top 5 RBs had far more total yards of production than their top 5 WR counterparts.

That’s not even close. You’re trying to convince me to want group B.
That makes absolutely zero sense.
Again, you can dislike RBs or try to devalue them all you want but if the top 5 RBs are taken off their roster it hurts more than losing the top 5 WRs.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well, I'm just gonna leave this here. This guy knows more than the both of us as he analyzes NFL stats for a living.

I don't consider Jason Moore to be a credible source.

It’s also an absolute myth in here that the best RBs are found in latter rounds. The top 4 producing RBs in 2018 were ALL picked inside the top #10 overall. Literally, those same RBs overall production was EXACTLY in order of their draft (that stat actually went at least 6 RBs deep).

I’m 100% ok with someone just not liking the RB position, but be prepared to back it with hard concrete facts

One season is an extremely small sample size. From 2014-17 only seven of the 20 running backs finishing in the top five in yards from scrimmage per season were drafted in the first round. That's the same amount as RBs drafted in the third round or later.

I agree that running backs are still important in today's game but it's definitely possible to draft an impact player at the position later in the draft.

 

[elcid]

One season is an extremely small sample size. From 2014-17 only seven of the 20 running backs finishing in the top five in yards from scrimmage per season were drafted in the first round. That's the same amount as RBs drafted in the third round or later.

I agree that running backs are still important in today's game but it's definitely possible to draft an impact player at the position later in the draft.

Wouldn't the same hold for receivers for that matter if you apply the same restrictions? Furthermore were there actually a total of 20 different running backs or were some RB's in the top 5 twice?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Wouldn't the same hold for receivers for that matter if you apply the same restrictions? Furthermore were there actually a total of 20 different running backs or were some RB's in the top 5 twice?

Actually three running backs made the list at least twice (Le'Veon Bell 3, LeSean McCoy 2, DeMarco Murray 2). I didn't research the numbers for wide receivers as I was replying to a post mentioning it's necessary to draft a running back early.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I don't consider Jason Moore to be a credible source.

.

LOL, ya a guy who consistently ranks in the top 10 of fantasy football analysts and co-hosts an award-winning podcast is a scrub. /sarcasm.

Unbelievable, he literally makes a living off making calls like this.

I guess you don't have to agree, you'd certainly be in the minority IMO.

 

[mradtke66]

You Explicitly listed both types of RBs last and next to last out of 11 positions in what you called “ranked in value”. You’re back peddling here.
.

You are correct--I listed them the lowest for draft value. And I will stand by that. Value. Not importance.

If the team were a machine, I see running backs as consumable wear-parts. They're bushings, tires, a shear pin. Yes, your machine needs those parts--they are no less important than the power center, the transmission, and everything else, because your machine will not run without all of the parts. At least not for long and not very well.

And sadly, that's running backs in the current NFL. When they hit their magic carry number, (what is it, 10,000 on the career) they are largely done. They get hurt a lot. It's a brutal position. And you grab another from the parts bin, shove it in, and get back to work.

Part of running backs being able to be replaced easily isn't just the talent level. It's how they fit into the machine. I never played running back, but I more or less know how to take a handoff. Now consider someone who's done it for 10 or so years. Pass blocking is mostly want-to and coaching.

I struggle to see how someone is going to the same value from a Rd.1 running back vs. a Rd.1 pass rusher or cornerback (of course giving both picks the benefit of the doubt that they are very good, highly graded prospects, etc etc.)

Just looking at our own team, it's hard to say we got appropriate value from Eddie Lacey as a Rd.2 pick.

A. the top 5 RBs in 2018 scored 87 TDs

B. the top 5 WRs in 2018 scored 65 TDs

An interesting way to look at it, but the top 2 quarterbacks threw more TDs (89) than the top 5 running backs ran in. Yes, running backs certainly caught some of those, but that kind of highlights my point. Passing is more valuable in the modern game.

And finally...

Part of the draft is getting the rare player. 6'6" 230 pound giants that can jump over a house and run a 4.5 or faster are rare. Plenty of guys around 5'10" 215 pounds that can take punishment between the tackles.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

LOL, ya a guy who consistently ranks in the top 10 of fantasy football analysts and co-hosts an award-winning podcast is a scrub. /sarcasm.

Unbelievable, he literally makes a living off making calls like this.

I guess you don't have to agree, you'd certainly be in the minority IMO.

Oh, he's a fantasy football analyst. Well in that case he's definitely the most credible source out there

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Oh, he's a fantasy football analyst. Well in that case he's definitely the most credible source out there

You can always rebut with a different source rather than scoff at sources. Till then I'll take the win.

Top 5.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

You can always rebut with a different source rather than scoff at sources. Till then I'll take the win.

Top 5.

Once again, the Buccaneers finished 15th in passer rating last season, therefore they weren't a top five unit.

 

[GreenNGold_81]

Once again, the Buccaneers finished 15th in passer rating last season, therefore they weren't a top five unit.

I've rebutted that. See prior posts.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I've rebutted that. See prior posts.

No, you didn't. You just ignored the FACT.