Projecting the Offense

Mondio

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The offense is without Bahktiari, Jenkins, Tonyan, Watson is hurt, Turner and MVS are gone. I would say that's a huge drop off in talent. I know training camp is when the Homers are at their most delusional, but once the real games start, talent matters.
Really it’s turner, mvs and Adam’s. The other guys we played half a season or more without already. It’s more of a bump when they’re back than a drop from what we’re used to.

I don’t think turner will be all that missed. Mvs missed a bunch last year. Adam’s hurts but we still have the most important piece in that puzzle
 

captainWIMM

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We haven’t even considered that GB isn’t finished adding players. They do have some Room to make a move. While understandably it’s fun to compare to past seasons like 2015, we have to consider the personnel story of 2022 is not necessarily fully written. One major example Is JJ wasn’t re-signed until September of that 2015 season.
Point being teams are in a constant search for contingency options, upgrades and the like. Your 2015 example just displays that eloquently. This Receiver room won’t necessarily mirror your projection this time next January. I’d even venture to say it’s just as likely some more changes will happen.

I agree it's possible the Packers add some help at wide receiver if they need to but at this point I can only evaluate the talent currently on the roster.
 

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Really it’s turner, mvs and Adam’s. The other guys we played half a season or more without already. It’s more of a bump when they’re back than a drop from what we’re used to.

I don’t think turner will be all that missed. Mvs missed a bunch last year. Adam’s hurts but we still have the most important piece in that puzzle
Thanks for bringing up Adams. So the offense needs to replace Adams, Jenkins, Bahktiari, Turner, MVS, Tonyan and one of key replacements, Watson had knee surgery already. Those are 3 pro bowlers, 2 good staters and your deep threat. Good luck replacing that amount of talent. We saw in the Niner game how ineffective this offense is with all those guys out with the exception of Adams who may be the best WR in the league. Just keepin it real.
 

captainWIMM

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Thanks for bringing up Adams. So the offense needs to replace Adams, Jenkins, Bahktiari, Turner, MVS, Tonyan and one of key replacements, Watson had knee surgery already. Those are 3 pro bowlers, 2 good staters and your deep threat. Good luck replacing that amount of talent. We saw in the Niner game how ineffective this offense is with all those guys out with the exception of Adams who may be the best WR in the league. Just keepin it real.

I agree the offense seems to be weaker on paper compared to last season.

You need to consider the unit played pretty well without Bakhtiari for all as well as Jenkins and Tonyan for half of last season though. In addition it's possible that aside of Adams, Turner and MVS all of the players you mentioned will return to action at some point this year.
 
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The offense is without Bahktiari, Jenkins, Tonyan, Watson is hurt, Turner and MVS are gone. I would say that's a huge drop off in talent. I know training camp is when the Homers are at their most delusional, but once the real games start, talent matters.

Really it’s turner, mvs and Adam’s. The other guys we played half a season or more without already. It’s more of a bump when they’re back than a drop from what we’re used to.

I don’t think turner will be all that missed. Mvs missed a bunch last year. Adam’s hurts but we still have the most important piece in that puzzle
That was perfectly said Mondio.

We we’re darn successful considering we had 1/2 season of J’aire, 1/2 of Tonyan, 1/2 season of Rasul, a 1/2 season of Elgton, near Zero of Z’adarius and near Zero Bakhtiari.

Not to say it’s a given, but we have the potential of a FULL SEASON of J’aire, near full season of Tonyan, full season of Rasul.

As you said. We did lose Adams, Turner and MVS and EQ.
We replaced that with Watkins, Watson, Doubs

We drafted 3 OL in Rds 3/4/7 to help cover losses Turner/Patrick. We have a decent shot getting back Bakhtiari and he would not only erase our net loss, him being on the field could greatly improve our OL from 2021.
 

captainWIMM

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That was perfectly said Mondio.

We we’re darn successful considering we had 1/2 season of J’aire, 1/2 of Tonyan, 1/2 season of Rasul, a 1/2 season of Elgton, near Zero of Z’adarius and near Zero Bakhtiari.

Not to say it’s a given, but we have the potential of a FULL SEASON of J’aire, near full season of Tonyan, full season of Rasul.

As you said. We did lose Adams, Turner and MVS and EQ.
We replaced that with Watkins, Watson, Doubs

We drafted 3 OL in Rds 3/4/7 to help cover losses Turner/Patrick. We have a decent shot getting back Bakhtiari and he would not only erase our net loss, him being on the field could greatly improve our OL from 2021.

I guess most Packers fans definitely expect the defense to be improved over last season. It's realistic to be concerned about the offense regressing though.
 

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Last season, the Packers opened the season with Jenkins and Turner at OT. With Bahktiari likely finished, the OT situation is a huge downgrade in comparison. Who are the starting OT's. Josh and a rookie? I like Josh but he's no Jenkins and a rookie won't replace Turner's solid play at RT last season. Sane can be said for the other position groups. No one on the roster can replace Tonyan. Unless the Packers figure out ways to avoid their injury epidemic and get healthy in a hurry, the offense will struggle to be in the 16 - 22 in the league range.
 
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I guess most Packers fans definitely expect the defense to be improved over last season. It's realistic to be concerned about the offense regressing though.
Sure. That said, I’m not that concerned because imo the biggest factor in the success of our Offense has been Aaron Rodgers. I’ve just witnessed him too many times make chicken salad from chicken poo

I was watching old film of Lazard from the last couple seasons. While he might not be an Adams, he’s very reminiscent of a young Jordy Nelson type (Lazard is a smidge slower) from back in our SB days. Also, Rodgers has eluded to Lazard being a key target. I think Lazard at peak this season could be around a 900-1,000 yard guy which while is nowhere close to Adams, it’s still very respectable. He’s got a good understanding of this system now and he’s also a fantastic blocker. If he plays anywhere close to how he finished last season he’ll be our WR1. I think he will draw the CB1 matchup.

I’ve got Sammy scaled back a smidge (650+ yards). He’s going to produce when he’s available. He just has that injury cloud following him around. I hope I’m wrong. If he remains healthy he’ll be closer to 800+ As WR2
 
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Heyjoe4

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I guess most Packers fans definitely expect the defense to be improved over last season. It's realistic to be concerned about the offense regressing though.
Correct. And until they start playing real games, we won’t know what kind of team they’ll be. But you pointed out the guys missing last year. They still were the number one seed in the NFC. I’ll take that again……….
 
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I’m going to throw an abstract hypothesis out there.

If one of either Doubs or Watson remains healthy and sees the field often, one will put up 600+/5TD+ in their Rookie season.
 
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captainWIMM

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Unless the Packers figure out ways to avoid their injury epidemic and get healthy in a hurry, the offense will struggle to be in the 16 - 22 in the league range.

While it's realistic to expect the offense to regress to some degree I don't believe it will be as bad as you're concerned.

Sure. That said, I’m not that concerned because imo the biggest factor in the success of our Offense has been Aaron Rodgers. I’ve just witnessed him too many times make chicken salad from chicken poo

You continue to ignore the 2015 season for some reason.

But you pointed out the guys missing last year. They still were the number one seed in the NFC. I’ll take that again……….

I would gladly take the #1 seed in the NFC again as well. The offense needs to perform above my expectations for that to happen though.
 

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While it's realistic to expect the offense to regress to some degree I don't believe it will be as bad as you're concerned.



You continue to ignore the 2015 season for some reason.



I would gladly take the #1 seed in the NFC again as well. The offense needs to perform above my expectations for that to happen though.
As far as the offense, it seems just as likely that someone will step up from that WR group as not. There's certainly a lot of potential in that group. I'd like to see that translate to production.
 

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Really it’s turner, mvs and Adam’s. The other guys we played half a season or more without already. It’s more of a bump when they’re back than a drop from what we’re used to.

I don’t think turner will be all that missed. Mvs missed a bunch last year. Adam’s hurts but we still have the most important piece in that puzzle
I feel like Patrick is going to be missed on the OL more than people think.
 

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I feel like Patrick is going to be missed on the OL more than people think.
I'll disagree with you, in a friendly, bantering way. ;) Patrick was good, and gave the Packers flexibility as he could play any of the G/OC spots slightly more than adequately. I don't think he is/was a standout, just a solid, OK guy. Bears paid him 2yr/$8Mil to be their starting OC... broke his thumb 2nd day of workouts & will be in a cast after surgery until opening day. The Packers have a lot of young interior OL talent looking for game-snaps... short of multiple severe injuries we'll be fine.
 

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I'll disagree with you, in a friendly, bantering way. ;) Patrick was good, and gave the Packers flexibility as he could play any of the G/OC spots slightly more than adequately. I don't think he is/was a standout, just a solid, OK guy. Bears paid him 2yr/$8Mil to be their starting OC... broke his thumb 2nd day of workouts & will be in a cast after surgery until opening day. The Packers have a lot of young interior OL talent looking for game-snaps... short of multiple severe injuries we'll be fine.
I thought Patrick was a little better than "just a guy". When it comes to the OL and guys who aren't in the elite tier, the Packers' OL coaching shines through. The coaches probably don't get as much credit as they should. When was the last time/season you remember the Packers having a bad OL? It seems like for as long as Rodgers has been around, they've protected him and opened gaps for the runners. There have been times as injuries piled up that they've had less than stellar games, but mostly the OL has been solid.

I did like Patrick and he did well when we were playing musical Centers. But $4 mil/year and guys coming back healthy, nah.
 

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To be fair I'm picking Z Tom over Patrick 100%. What little edge Patrick has in experience, Tom makes up for in price/contract.

Personally speaking I'd take S Rhyan over him at guard position as well.

I've never once loved a draft class more than this one and a lot of that is these two (plus Walker late).
 

Heyjoe4

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To be fair I'm picking Z Tom over Patrick 100%. What little edge Patrick has in experience, Tom makes up for in price/contract.

Personally speaking I'd take S Rhyan over him at guard position as well.

I've never once loved a draft class more than this one and a lot of that is these two (plus Walker late).
Agreed. It was a great draft class for the O line and for the D and for WRs. It's still gotta play out on the field, but at this point, it's hard to ask for more considering all the needs.
 
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I agree it's possible the Packers add some help at wide receiver if they need to but at this point I can only evaluate the talent currently on the roster.
If that’s true. Then you need to erase James Jones from our debate. He didn’t resign with GB until the regular season of 2015. It’s just now August and he would’ve been a Giant
You continue to ignore the 2015 season for some reason.
See underneath posts. Hmmmm
Either I’m not ignoring the 2015 season or you are not interested in reading my lengthy responses to it? If I was any more verbose on the 2015 remarks I’d put everyone into a long slumber! Please reRead (correction read!) posts #35 and #45 for your homework assignment. and no more vacations! they are making you fall asleep in Packer class! :whistling:

.
I still think our potential in 2022 is more solid with these choices receiving
Sammy, Cobb, Watson, Lazard, Doubs, Amari
Big Dog, Tonyan, Deguara

VS 2015
JJ, Cobb, Adams,
Janis, Abbredaris
Quarless, Rodgers, Perillo

It’s just similar Crowd at the top, but with a much deeper WR potential in 2022. I’ve got 4 potential #2 types in 2022 vs 3 in the 2015 season.

The TE group wins a tiebreaker imo
It’s a similar look, but I’d take this years 2022 TE group over that slow 2015 group

That 2015 group was just ok+. 31TD, 8INT. 3,821 yards. I would argue that this group surpasses either 2015 category of TD’s or Yards or even possibly both.
I’ll risk a guess hypothesis:
37TD/8INT/4,010yds

We haven’t even considered that GB isn’t finished adding players. They do have some Room to make a move. While understandably it’s fun to compare to past seasons like 2015, we have to consider the personnel story of 2022 is not necessarily fully written. One major example Is JJ wasn’t re-signed until September of that 2015 season.
Point being teams are in a constant search for contingency options, upgrades and the like. Your 2015 example just displays that eloquently. This Receiver room won’t necessarily mirror your projection this time next January. I’d even venture to say it’s just as likely some more changes will happen.
 
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captainWIMM

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As far as the offense, it seems just as likely that someone will step up from that WR group as not. There's certainly a lot of potential in that group. I'd like to see that translate to production.

I fully expect the wide receiving corps to regress compared to last season. Even if one of them steps up significantly there's no way to adequately replace Adams.

I'll disagree with you, in a friendly, bantering way. ;) Patrick was good, and gave the Packers flexibility as he could play any of the G/OC spots slightly more than adequately. I don't think he is/was a standout, just a solid, OK guy. Bears paid him 2yr/$8Mil to be their starting OC... broke his thumb 2nd day of workouts & will be in a cast after surgery until opening day. The Packers have a lot of young interior OL talent looking for game-snaps... short of multiple severe injuries we'll be fine.

I don't think Patrick was an above average offensive lineman as well but you need to consider that he played a ton of snaps last season (911, Newman and Runyan were the only OL with more than that). It might be unrealistic to expect a rookie to perform at a decent level on that many plays this year.

If that’s true. Then you need to erase James Jones from our debate. He didn’t resign with GB until the regular season of 2015. It’s just now August and he would’ve been a Giant

If that's true than I need to include Jordy Nelson in the debate as he wasn't injured until the second preseason game in 2015. That doesn't make any sense though.

Either I’m not ignoring the 2015 season or you are not interested in reading my lengthy responses to it? If I was any more verbose on the 2015 remarks I’d put everyone into a long slumber! Please reRead (correction read!) posts #35 and #45 for your homework assignment. and no more vacations! they are making you fall asleep in Packer class! :whistling:

As I have mentioned before there's no doubt the 2015 wide receiving corps had much more proven talent than the current one. Your lengthy replies to it don't change anything about that.
 
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If that's true than I need to include Jordy Nelson in the debate as he wasn't injured until the second preseason game in 2015. That doesn't make any sense though.
Good stuff, That is an excellent observation I commend you for that nice. Players are added and deleted throughout the season and it could happen tomorrow. So we’d better tread lightly when making some assumption that our Roster is “fixed”. That was 1 of the points I made that you conveniently sidestep in the overall conversation.

In addition in comparing 2015vs2022, I was going to offer also that while Cobb is definitely “older Cobb” he’s definitely not any less “proven” today. You make him sound like he’s inexperienced. I don’t agreee with that.

Lazard unproven? I “mostly” disagree with that label. It’s not like he’s a Rookie. Allen 100% has Aaron Rodgers confidence and #12 has said as much. Yes, I could argue that he’s not proven as a WR1, but using “unproven” is leaning towards discounting his current value.

Sammy is definitely NOT “unproven”. Not sure where you got that from? I’ve got a guy that’s a KC diehard and sits 25 feet away from me. To be fair, I simply asked him yes or no question. Is Sammy Watkins “unproven”? He says NO

I also 100% disagree that you think2015
Rookie Montgomery
Rookie Miracle Janis
2nd year Stud Abbredaris

Are in any general or practical format “proven” players at that juncture. The grouping below would overwhelmingly best that former group imo.

Rookie Christian Watson
Rookie Romeo Doubs
4th year player Juan Winfree

For our group of WR compared to 2015? we can argue injury prone, emerging, declining or developing, but not “unproven”. I just hope you don’t still feel like I am ignoring your 2015 argument. I thought about making this post longer but I didn’t want to get Banned! :eek:
 
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Heyjoe4

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I fully expect the wide receiving corps to regress compared to last season. Even if one of them steps up significantly there's no way to adequately replace Adams.



I don't think Patrick was an above average offensive lineman as well but you need to consider that he played a ton of snaps last season (911, Newman and Runyan were the only OL with more than that). It might be unrealistic to expect a rookie to perform at a decent level on that many plays this year.



If that's true than I need to include Jordy Nelson in the debate as he wasn't injured until the second preseason game in 2015. That doesn't make any sense though.



As I have mentioned before there's no doubt the 2015 wide receiving corps had much more proven talent than the current one. Your lengthy replies to it don't change anything about that.
I don't think anyone here has ever even hinted that any of the current WR group will replace Adams. Will the group regress? Probably. But that's a "glass half empty" view. I think the WR group and the rest of the team will do well enough to compete for a SB, the same as when Adams was here. Are their chances better or worse? I don't really care. The D is better, the running game is solid, they have arguably the best QB in the league. I see no reason to be pessimistic.
 
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I don't think anyone here has ever even hinted that any of the current WR group will replace Adams. Will the group regress? Probably. But that's a "glass half empty" view. I think the WR group and the rest of the team will do well enough to compete for a SB, the same as when Adams was here. Are their chances better or worse? I don't really care. The D is better, the running game is solid, they have arguably the best QB in the league. I see no reason to be pessimistic.
I fully agree. I am doing my best not to bring up Defense or ST etc.. in order to narrow our focus to the thread.

I don’t expect this WR group to rank
#1-3 in the NFL. However, these experts in the media that rank the Packers Receiving group at or near Dead last? Really? Doesn’t the QB and HC and OL/TE (blocking) and RB threat have something to say about that? It’s like we’re in a WR funnel
 
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Heyjoe4

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I fully agree. I am doing my best not to bring up Defense or ST etc.. in order to narrow our focus to the thread.

I don’t expect this WR group to rank
#1-3 in the NFL. However, these experts in the media that rank the Packers Receiving group at or near Dead last? Really? Doesn’t the QB and HC and OL/TE (blocking) and RB threat have something to say about that? It’s like we’re in a WR funnel
Yeah I see no reason to be pessimistic about the passing game. Two of the guys, Lazard and Watkins, are very motivated to do well and have shown they can play in the NFL. The rookies are motivated because they want to stand out, early, and set themselves up for better things. And Rodgers is the QB. IMO there's no good reason to be pessimistic entering the season about the passing game.

Maybe I'm wrong. That happens! Not this time though.
 
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Yeah I see no reason to be pessimistic about the passing game. Two of the guys, Lazard and Watkins, are very motivated to do well and have shown they can play in the NFL. The rookies are motivated because they want to stand out, early, and set themselves up for better things. And Rodgers is the QB. IMO there's no good reason to be pessimistic entering the season about the passing game.

Maybe I'm wrong. That happens! Not this time though.
Amen. It is true that we have not invested properly at WR lately.
As an example (before 2022 draft) the last time we invested before Rd4 was 2014. It worked. We got Adams #53, a serviceable ST/Depth guy in Janis #236 and Abby #176.

On the last 25 drafts at WR by Round the WR count

Round 1
1
Walker

Round 2
7
Ferguson, Murphy, Jennings,Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Watson

Round 3
2
J. Jones, Amari

Round 4 (4) ; Round 5 (7)
Round 6 (3) ; Round 7 (10)

That’s 1.36 WR picked per season.
4% chance in Rd1
28% chance in Rd2
8% chance in RD3
16% chance in Rd4
28% chance in Rd5
12% chance in Rd6
40% chance in Rd7


The bad thing is as bad as that looks for investing at WR, it’s actually leaning worse because we average picking at the end of each round. Since 1998, we’ve picked just 4 WR’s inside top #50 overall over a 25 year span.
Walker, Ferguson, Watson, Jordy
 
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Heyjoe4

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Amen. It is true that we have not invested properly at WR lately.
As an example (before 2022 draft) the last time we invested before Rd4 was 2014. It worked. We got Adams #53, a serviceable ST/Depth guy in Janis #236 and Abby #176.

On the last 25 drafts at WR by Round the WR count

Round 1
1
Walker

Round 2
7
Ferguson, Murphy, Jennings,Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Watson

Round 3
2
J. Jones, Amari

Round 4 (4) ; Round 5 (7)
Round 6 (3) ; Round 7 (10)

That’s 1.36 WR picked per season.
4% chance in Rd1
28% chance in Rd2
8% chance in RD3
16% chance in Rd4
28% chance in Rd5
12% chance in Rd6
40% chance in Rd7


The bad thing is as bad as that looks for investing at WR, it’s actually leaning worse because we average picking at the end of each round. In 25 drafts we’ve picked just 3 WR’s inside #36 overall.
Javon, Watson, Jordy
Yeah Adams was a huge exception, but overall and across more than one GM, GB hasn't done a good job maintaining a solid WR corps, with legit #1, 2, and 3 receivers. Even the last few years, it was Adams, and everyone else. Yeah Lazard and MVS were ok, but no more than a typical #3 WR.
 

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