Projecting the Offense

Dantés

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I've been thinking about the projected 53 man roster and the strengths/weaknesses of the Packers offense and I've tried to put together a semi-realistic projection of what I think they could accomplish.

This is a pretty optimistic outlook, but I am a fan and this team is good, so I make no apologies for that.

Basically the idea here is to try to get a feel for what the Packers offense could be if it took another step towards the running game. What if they run more and more effectively, and Rodgers is more limited in his attempts, but still efficient?

Passing:

-A. Rodgers:
344/500, 3962 yards, 69% completion, 7.9 YPA, 32 TD, 5 INT
-J. Love: 28/45, 324 yards, 62% completion, 7.2 YPA, 2 TD, INT

-Team: 372/545, 4286 yards, 68% completion, 7.9 YPA, 34 TD, 6 INT

Rushing:

-A. Dillon:
215 carries, 968 yards, 4.5 YPC, 9 TD
-A. Jones: 200 carries, 980 yards, 4.9 YPC, 6 TD
-A. Rodgers: 20 carries, 70 yards, 3.5 YPC, 2 TD
-J. Love: 5 carries, 25 yards
-Misc (Depth RB's): 65 carries, 286 yards, 4.4 YPC, TD

-Team: 505 carries, 2329 yards, 4.6 YPC, 18 TD

Receiving:

-A. Lazard:
70 receptions, 875 yards, 12.5 YPR, 8 TD
-A. Jones: 64 receptions, 512 yards, 8.0 YPR, 4 TD
-S. Watkins: 40 receptions, 520 yards, 13.0 YPR, 4 TD
-C. Watson: 38 receptions, 684 yards, 18.0 YPR, 5 TD
-R. Cobb: 36 receptions, 396 yards, 11.0 YPR, 3 TD
-A. Dillon: 35 receptions, 280 yards, 8.0 YPR, 2 TD
-R. Tonyan: 30 receptions, 360 yards, 12.0 YPR, 3 TD
-R. Doubs: 20 receptions, 300 yards, 15.0 YPR, 2 TD
-J. Deguara: 15 receptions, 150 yards, 10.0 YPR, TD
-T. Davis: 9 receptions, 90 yards, 9.0 YPR, TD
-M. Lewis: 8 receptions, 64 yards, 8.0 YPR, TD
-Misc (Depth RB's): 7 receptions, 55 yards, 8.0 YPR

-Team: 372 receptions, 4286 yards, 34 TD

Notes:

-This would mean 1,050 combined attempts, rushing and passing, which is only 11 more than 2021 (a conservative estimate, since GB was 32nd in pace of place last year).
-The run/pass balance would be 48/52, which would exceed the high water mark of LaFleur's tenure set in 2020 (46/54).
-This scenario would see the Packers score 52 touchdowns after scoring exactly that many on offense in 2021 (just shifted towards rushing TD's).
-If this scenario unfolded, but Crosby regressed positively in FG % and DEF/ST scored a little bit more, they could end up with a higher scoring output.
-Many of the reception suggestions assume missed time (e.g. I project Watkins to average 4 receptions per game for 10 games, Cobb likewise 4 receptions/game for 9 games).
-I don't think this scenario is unrealistic at any point and it illustrates how GB could field a dangerous offense in 2022 despite losing Adams.
 

PikeBadger

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I think the TE's will catch more passes and the WR's less than what you have projected. My reasoning being that I'm expecting the offense to have more shorter fields this year due to increased turnovers by the defense. I'm expecting more running plays as a result this year.
 
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Dantés

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I think the TE's will catch more passes and the WR's less than what you have projected. My reasoning being that I'm expecting the offense to have more shorter fields this year due to increased turnovers by the defense. I'm expecting more running plays as a result this year.

That could be. With Tonyan probably starting slow and the team not having a lot of receiving talent elsewhere at the TE position, I projected those targets to go to Lazard (who plays much like an F tight end) and the backs.
 

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I'm thinking it is low on Watkins and Deguara. And that those extra catches would just be additions to the total. So maybe 50 more receptions.
 

tynimiller

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Personally, unless Deguara misses games, I don't see a world where he doesn't put up minimum 300 yards this year. Honestly given his injury, I place Tonyan's odds at hitting 400 yards less than Deguara.

I've started dabbling at projections of production and will try and refine and provide here for discussion (and ridicule LOL).
 

tynimiller

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Okay here's my stab at it as of 7/14/2022 - and I'm concerned with the similarity of the overviews with Dantes LOL but we do disagree on some players productions....most notably Amari Rodgers, Deguara and RBs.

PassingCompletionsAttemptsYardsYPATDsINTs
Rodgers35552038757.45346
Love27382255.9221
Totals:38255841007.35367
2021 Season40259345267.63397
RushingCarriesYardsYPCTDs
Dillon23011004.7810
Jones1858654.686
Hill401754.381
Rodgers30852.833
Love6305.000
Others301254.170
Totals:52123804.5720
2021 Season44619004.2613
ReceivingReceptionsYardsYPRTDs
Lazard6680012.128
Jones604407.336
Watkins4555012.504
Dillon353008.573
Deguara353259.292
Watson3046015.334
Cobb2525010.003
Tonyan2527511.003
Doubs1522515.001
Rodgers1517511.671
Lewis121109.171
Davis89011.250
Others111009.090
Totals:382410010.736
2021 Season402452611.339



Notes or Takeaways

Took me awhile to make everything line up, but by comparison of receiving stats broken down by position group my predictions compared to 2021 are:
ReceptionsYardsYPCTDs
WR Totals196246012.621
2021 WR Totals238307212.927
TE Totals8080010.06
2021 TE Totals7273210.24
RB Totals957407.89
2021 RB Totals897128.08

I predict 2022 we will have 1,079 attempts which would be 40 more attempts than 2021 - it might seem like a lot more but we were essential bottoms last year and with more rush attempts I predict more snaps will occur for us. Could be tick aggressive but I'm actually optimistic Rodgers forced to spread things is going to be deadly at times.

My predictions washed out mirroring almost @Dantés predictions as far as ratios go with 48.3% of attempts rushing vs 51.7% being passing

I'm of course a bigger fan of the belief Deguara will continue clicking as he closed out the 2021 campaign and finally in his true second season we see more and more growth. I also personally expect between Cobb/Rodgers/Doubs that those three combine for 600 yards...by committee those three will hold down the 4th WR spot behind Lazard/Watkins and Watson on the year.
 
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Dantés

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Personally, unless Deguara misses games, I don't see a world where he doesn't put up minimum 300 yards this year. Honestly given his injury, I place Tonyan's odds at hitting 400 yards less than Deguara.

I've started dabbling at projections of production and will try and refine and provide here for discussion (and ridicule LOL).

Deguara could easily out-stat my projection for him, but he would need to take a pretty big step forward if he's going to produce significant numbers. And that's possible (TE is a notoriously slow developing position), but it's also far from a lock. In 16 games last year he was only given 35% of the offensive snaps. That turned into 33 targets, 25 receptions, and only 9.8 YPR. So I don't think he necessarily did anything to demand more playing time. That would have to happen in camp.
 
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Dantés

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I'm thinking it is low on Watkins and Deguara. And that those extra catches would just be additions to the total. So maybe 50 more receptions.

Watkin's season-long projection for me would be 68/884/7, but I only gave him 10 games of production.
 

tynimiller

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Deguara could easily out-stat my projection for him, but he would need to take a pretty big step forward if he's going to produce significant numbers. And that's possible (TE is a notoriously slow developing position), but it's also far from a lock. In 16 games last year he was only given 35% of the offensive snaps. That turned into 33 targets, 25 receptions, and only 9.8 YPR. So I don't think he necessarily did anything to demand more playing time. That would have to happen in camp.

You have to look at how he closed out the year...he essentially didn't become part of the gameplan till halfway point and put up a pace better than Tonyan's breakout year. I truly think he will deliver an adaquate to solid season. Not a massive or breakout year that catches national attention like Tonyan but quietly delivers. I actually have a $50 side bet with a buddy on which TE hits 400 yards him or Tonyan. My buddy took Tonyan. If neither or both make it no one pays the other.
 
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Dantés

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Okay here's my stab at it as of 7/14/2022 - and I'm concerned with the similarity of the overviews with Dantes LOL but we do disagree on some players productions....most notably Amari Rodgers, Deguara and RBs.

PassingCompletionsAttemptsYardsYPATDsINTs
Rodgers35552038757.45346
Love27382255.9221
Totals:38255841007.35367
2021 Season40259345267.63397
RushingCarriesYardsYPCTDs
Dillon23011004.7810
Jones1858654.686
Hill401754.381
Rodgers30852.833
Love6305.000
Others301254.170
Totals:52123804.5720
2021 Season44619004.2613
ReceivingReceptionsYardsYPRTDs
Lazard6680012.128
Jones604407.336
Watkins4555012.504
Dillon353008.573
Deguara353259.292
Watson3046015.334
Cobb2525010.003
Tonyan2527511.003
Doubs1522515.001
Rodgers1517511.671
Lewis121109.171
Davis89011.250
Others111009.090
Totals:382410010.736
2021 Season402452611.339



Notes or Takeaways

Took me awhile to make everything line up, but by comparison of receiving stats broken down by position group my predictions compared to 2021 are:
ReceptionsYardsYPCTDs
WR Totals196246012.621
2021 WR Totals238307212.927
TE Totals8080010.06
2021 TE Totals7273210.24
RB Totals957407.89
2021 RB Totals897128.08

I predict 2022 we will have 1,079 attempts which would be 40 more attempts than 2021 - it might seem like a lot more but we were essential bottoms last year and with more rush attempts I predict more snaps will occur for us. Could be tick aggressive but I'm actually optimistic Rodgers forced to spread things is going to be deadly at times.

My predictions washed out mirroring almost @Dantés predictions as far as ratios go with 48.3% of attempts rushing vs 51.7% being passing

I'm of course a bigger fan of the belief Deguara will continue clicking as he closed out the 2021 campaign and finally in his true second season we see more and more growth. I also personally expect between Cobb/Rodgers/Doubs that those three combine for 600 yards...by committee those three will hold down the 4th WR spot behind Lazard/Watkins and Watson on the year.

Very reasonable to me.

Minor quibble:

I would be surprised if Aaron Jones' YPC clip was lower than Dillon's, especially if he's lower volume. His career YPC average is still 5.1.
 

tynimiller

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Very reasonable to me.

Minor quibble:

I would be surprised if Aaron Jones' YPC clip was lower than Dillon's, especially if he's lower volume. His career YPC average is still 5.1.

Fair quibble for sure. I could see carries being same but production slightly higher. I do strongly feel Dillon delivers more big plays this year over the 15/20 yard mark and will elevate his YPC some.
 
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Dantés

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You have to look at how he closed out the year...he essentially didn't become part of the gameplan till halfway point and put up a pace better than Tonyan's breakout year. I truly think he will deliver an adaquate to solid season. Not a massive or breakout year that catches national attention like Tonyan but quietly delivers. I actually have a $50 side bet with a buddy on which TE hits 400 yards him or Tonyan. My buddy took Tonyan. If neither or both make it no one pays the other.

Yeah, maybe.

If you throw out week 17 (no Rodgers-- not trying to win), he played a little bit more than his season average, but still only accounted for 151 yards in his final 8 games (weeks 9-16).

I'm not ruling it out, but I just haven't seen it yet. What would help him a lot is if he became more of a fixture in the running game as a lead blocker. If they go to more of that in their run game design, he will get more snaps, which will lead to more targets and catches.
 

tynimiller

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Yeah, maybe.

If you throw out week 17 (no Rodgers-- not trying to win), he played a little bit more than his season average, but still only accounted for 151 yards in his final 8 games (weeks 9-16).

I'm not ruling it out, but I just haven't seen it yet. What would help him a lot is if he became more of a fixture in the running game as a lead blocker. If they go to more of that in their run game design, he will get more snaps, which will lead to more targets and catches.

For sure would assist. All I know is he catches when targeted and showcased his ability to get open and produce in college very well - and Rodgers doesn't seem to shy away from throwing his way albeit in a limited basis last year when he was option what 6 on the field usually...4th at highest on a snap?

I had predicted this being the year we see a ton of Tonyan/Deguara snaps but with Tonyan's injury last year that now is massively questionable to occur.
 

Heyjoe4

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Okay here's my stab at it as of 7/14/2022 - and I'm concerned with the similarity of the overviews with Dantes LOL but we do disagree on some players productions....most notably Amari Rodgers, Deguara and RBs.

PassingCompletionsAttemptsYardsYPATDsINTs
Rodgers35552038757.45346
Love27382255.9221
Totals:38255841007.35367
2021 Season40259345267.63397
RushingCarriesYardsYPCTDs
Dillon23011004.7810
Jones1858654.686
Hill401754.381
Rodgers30852.833
Love6305.000
Others301254.170
Totals:52123804.5720
2021 Season44619004.2613
ReceivingReceptionsYardsYPRTDs
Lazard6680012.128
Jones604407.336
Watkins4555012.504
Dillon353008.573
Deguara353259.292
Watson3046015.334
Cobb2525010.003
Tonyan2527511.003
Doubs1522515.001
Rodgers1517511.671
Lewis121109.171
Davis89011.250
Others111009.090
Totals:382410010.736
2021 Season402452611.339



Notes or Takeaways

Took me awhile to make everything line up, but by comparison of receiving stats broken down by position group my predictions compared to 2021 are:
ReceptionsYardsYPCTDs
WR Totals196246012.621
2021 WR Totals238307212.927
TE Totals8080010.06
2021 TE Totals7273210.24
RB Totals957407.89
2021 RB Totals897128.08

I predict 2022 we will have 1,079 attempts which would be 40 more attempts than 2021 - it might seem like a lot more but we were essential bottoms last year and with more rush attempts I predict more snaps will occur for us. Could be tick aggressive but I'm actually optimistic Rodgers forced to spread things is going to be deadly at times.

My predictions washed out mirroring almost @Dantés predictions as far as ratios go with 48.3% of attempts rushing vs 51.7% being passing

I'm of course a bigger fan of the belief Deguara will continue clicking as he closed out the 2021 campaign and finally in his true second season we see more and more growth. I also personally expect between Cobb/Rodgers/Doubs that those three combine for 600 yards...by committee those three will hold down the 4th WR spot behind Lazard/Watkins and Watson on the year.
Good analysis Ty, thanks. I hope Rodgers can get back over 4,000 yards again. But without Adams chipping in 1500 yards, well that's a lot to make up.

I'm not so sure Lazard can double his production. Sure he'll get more targets but he doesn't have the route versatility of Adams, making him easier to cover. So the only change I'd make is to switch the numbers for Lazard and Watkins. It would represent a reasonable production increase for Lazard (and who knows, he's likely to be working on new routes in camp) and for Watkins, more in line with what he's done in the past. Watkins also seems genuinely excited to be in GB and sees it as a chance to revive a sagging career while he's still fairly young. He's a very good receiver and if he can stay away from injury, I see no reason why he can't get back, especially working with Rodgers.

That's it Ty. Good job!
 

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Good running game and inconsistent passing game will lead to this team having a mediocre offense between the 20's but having a great QB means they'll score TD's at an above-average rate in the red zone. Gute really dropped the ball when it came to the group of receivers on this team and this is the year the Packers are going to pay for that.

Lazard will have a few big games, as will Watson, but overall I don't think any of the receivers clears 1,000 yards this season (I think quite a few will be between 400-800). But our backup QB situation is potentially AMAZING (or not, nobody really knows).
 

tynimiller

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Good running game and inconsistent passing game will lead to this team having a mediocre offense between the 20's but having a great QB means they'll score TD's at an above-average rate in the red zone. Gute really dropped the ball when it came to the group of receivers on this team and this is the year the Packers are going to pay for that.

Lazard will have a few big games, as will Watson, but overall I don't think any of the receivers clears 1,000 yards this season (I think quite a few will be between 400-800). But our backup QB situation is potentially AMAZING (or not, nobody really knows).

Over the last decade only half the Super Bowl winners had a 1,000 yard WR just FTR
 

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As was I merely in reference of no 1,000 guy but numerous 400-800 has been part of recipe for success in recent history is all.

Okay, i concur. I didn’t say the offense would tank, just that it’s going to be a very erratic passing game. It’s going to be a much different offense this season and a lot of fans are going to blame players or coaches while the blame should pretty much be completely on Gute.
 

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Okay, i concur. I didn’t say the offense would tank, just that it’s going to be a very erratic passing game. It’s going to be a much different offense this season and a lot of fans are going to blame players or coaches while the blame should pretty much be completely on Gute.
I agree that the WR position was neglected. When the draft was used, it was 4th, 5th, 6th round guys, and only MVS really contributed. I don't recall the last time there was a legit #2 WR.
 

captainWIMM

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Good running game and inconsistent passing game will lead to this team having a mediocre offense between the 20's but having a great QB means they'll score TD's at an above-average rate in the red zone. Gute really dropped the ball when it came to the group of receivers on this team and this is the year the Packers are going to pay for that.

I actually believe the Packers lacking talent at receiver will result in them struggling in the red zone. It might not have that much of an impact between the 20s.
 

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I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we'll get more production from Watson than we anticipate. Sometimes rookies will make the jump faster than we anticipate. We know that he has the skills.
 

Heyjoe4

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I'm going to go out on a limb and say that we'll get more production from Watson than we anticipate. Sometimes rookies will make the jump faster than we anticipate. We know that he has the skills.
Yeah I hope he's the next Justin Jefferson or J'Marr Chase. It's tough for rookies, even guys selected in the top 10. But guys drafted later do surprise, and for all intents and purposes, Watson is a first rounder considering what Gluten paid to get him. I think he's a much better choice than Treylon Burks, another guy associated with GB. Apparently burks reported to camp (I forget who drafted him) out of shape and unable to finish some OTA drills. Ugh, no thanks........
 
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Good running game and inconsistent passing game will lead to this team having a mediocre offense between the 20's but having a great QB means they'll score TD's at an above-average rate in the red zone. Gute really dropped the ball when it came to the group of receivers on this team and this is the year the Packers are going to pay for that.

Lazard will have a few big games, as will Watson, but overall I don't think any of the receivers clears 1,000 yards this season (I think quite a few will be between 400-800). But our backup QB situation is potentially AMAZING (or not, nobody really knows).
I know you’d naturally think that.
I think we have a 40% chance of 1 WR surpassing 1,000 yards.
I think we have a 70% chance of at least 1 WR surpassing 800+

Here’s my logic. If you asked me of any 1 player (not a group question) of a WR reaching 1,000 yards? I’d call it 25% because It leaves too much to chance. Any one of Injury, suspension, playbook, personality mismatches, all can derail a player.

However over an entire group?
I think you have a realistic probability shot 1-2 will be a significant riser. We do have 17 games now also. My guess of that probability of a 1,000 receiver is:
Sammy 30%
Christian 20%
Lazard 15%
Cobb 10%
Amari/Doubs 5%

Of a 800 yard Receiver:
Sammy 50%
Christian 30%
Lazard 30%
Cobb 20%
Amari/Doubs 10%

I’m pretty sure (60%) either 1 of Lazard, Cobb, Watson or Doubs will step up this season over 800 yards. Don’t underestimate what Rodgers csn do with an island of misfit toys :)
 
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Heyjoe4

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Okay, i concur. I didn’t say the offense would tank, just that it’s going to be a very erratic passing game. It’s going to be a much different offense this season and a lot of fans are going to blame players or coaches while the blame should pretty much be completely on Gute.
For whatever reason, Gluten must have been absolutely sure Adams was staying in GB. Maybe that's a lack of communication on his part - we know that's not his strong suit. But the result is a severely depleted receiving corps, WRs and TEs, and that does fall on the GM. He's certainly made other moves that have been outstanding, and he turned the Adams situation to the teams' advantage with a first and second round pick.

I think he must be counting on Rodgers now, after writing him off two years ago. We'll see how that works.
 

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