NFCCG: Rodgers vs. Brady @ Lambeau Field

[C-Lee]

He was good in 2016 against Atlanta, the defense just never gave him a shot.

Game was over when Ripkowski fumbled.

Shoutout to starting CB Ladarius Gunter covering Julio Jones (lol)

 

[GleefulGary]

It’s facts... Green Bay beat everyone last year but the one team that’s a thorn always punishes them. The cold weather will have ZERO affect on Brady he has always played in the cold. And Brady is clutch. If they can’t pressure Brady they don’t have a chance Rodgers has to stay upright like against the rams if he plays scared no chance

Are you sure you enjoy cheering for the Packers?

Miserable mope

 

[sschind]

So many non believers. We are a much different team then we were in week 6. Both the O and D are clicking. I love our chances in the frigid cold!!

Yeah, but its an afternoon game so the frigid cold will he negated. I guess cold temps only affect players in night games.

 

[Firethorn1001]

The Packers 38-10 loss to TB early in the season means about as much as the Saints 38-3 victory over Tampa in November. I expect the Packers to win this Sunday and advance to the Super Bowl. Just feels like this is their year and haven't felt like that since the 2010 run. The most recent NFCCG felt like 50/50 games other than that Atlanta one which I didn't think they had a shot to win and had went as far as they could.

 

[C-Lee]

Yeah, but its an afternoon game so the frigid cold will he negated. I guess cold temps only affect players in night games.

Early forecast says 20's and snow

 

[Firethorn1001]

Early forecast says 20's and snow

With sunset at 4:50PM then it's game on with night time cold... or something like that.

 

[pacmaniac]

Can our offense score 40+ points against the Bucs? We're gonna need it.

This is a terrifying stat. Mike Pettine has lost EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES AGAINST TOM BRADY, giving up an average of 34 points in those losses!

2020: Bucs 38-10
2018: Patriots 31-17
2013: Patriots 23-21
2013: Patriots 34-20
2012: Patriots 29-26
2012: Patriots 49-19
2011: Patriots 30-21
2011: Patriots 37-16
2010: Jets 28-14
2010: Patriots 45-3
2010: Jets 28-21
2009: Jets 16-9
2009: Patriots 31-14

 

[Ceodore]

The double shellacking we got from SF last year has me nervous about this one. Keep Suh away from our MVP.

 

[longtimefan]

Can our offense score 40+ points against the Bucs? We're gonna need it.

This is a terrifying stat. Mike Pettine has lost EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES AGAINST TOM BRADY, giving up an average of 34 points in those losses!

2020: Bucs 38-10
2018: Patriots 31-17
2013: Patriots 23-21
2013: Patriots 34-20
2012: Patriots 29-26
2012: Patriots 49-19
2011: Patriots 30-21
2011: Patriots 37-16
2010: Jets 28-14
2010: Patriots 45-3
2010: Jets 28-21
2009: Jets 16-9
2009: Patriots 31-14

I wouldnt even entertain that stay.

 

[GleefulGary]

Can our offense score 40+ points against the Bucs? We're gonna need it.

This is a terrifying stat. Mike Pettine has lost EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES AGAINST TOM BRADY, giving up an average of 34 points in those losses!

2020: Bucs 38-10
2018: Patriots 31-17
2013: Patriots 23-21
2013: Patriots 34-20
2012: Patriots 29-26
2012: Patriots 49-19
2011: Patriots 30-21
2011: Patriots 37-16
2010: Jets 28-14
2010: Patriots 45-3
2010: Jets 28-21
2009: Jets 16-9
2009: Patriots 31-14

Means nothing.

Different teams, different seasons, different players.

 

[red4tribe]

Earlier in this thread, I made a post listing reasons to be optimistic about this matchup. Now here's one about things that concern me.

1. Love him or hate him, Brady is extremely difficult to beat in the playoffs. He has a .744 postseason win percentage, which is just absurd.

2. The most effective way to stop Brady is to get pressure on him. Washington and New Orleans were 6th and 8th in the league in sacks, and only managed to drop Brady four times combined. That's not going to cut it. We are 10th in sacks this year. Need a great game from Gary and the Smith brothers.

3. LaFleur's scheme is very dependent on play action. To have effective play action, you need to have an decent run game. Tampa has the best run defense in the NFL. Jones only had 15 yards on 10 carries in the regular season matchup.

4. Although it's true that we've beaten teams in the postseason who we lost to during the regular season, in those cases, our regular season losses were generally somewhat competitive. Like Atlanta in 2010, where we probably should have won the regular season matchup. When we've been blown out (49ers last year, Cardinals 2015) we have lost in the playoffs.

5. For whatever reason, Rodgers has bad career numbers against Tampa. In five career starts, he has a 74.4 passer rating with 8 TDs 9 INTs. Only his numbers against Buffalo (three starts) are worse. If I recall correctly though, most of those bad Tampa games have been in Florida, and obviously we are talking about very different teams with various players over a long period of time.

6. Outside Crosby, our special teams are hot garbage.

 

[Dantés]

Statistical Comparison:

Points/Drive:

• Packers: 3.08
• Bucs: 2.72

Points/Drive Allowed:

• Packers: 2.18
• Bucs: 1.89

3rd Down Conversions:

• Packers: 49.4%
• Bucs: 43.5%

3rd Down Conversions Allowed:

• Packers: 39.5%
• Bucs: 40.0%

RZ Conversions:

• Packers: 80%
• Bucs: 68.9%

RZ Conversions Allowed:

• Packers: 57.7%
• Bucs: 62.7%

PPG Scored Since 12/1:

• Packers: 32.0
• Bucs: 34.8

PPG Allowed Since 12/1:

• Packers: 17.3
• Bucs: 19.7

The Packers and Bucs are both really good teams who have been playing really good football recently.

The Packers are better on 3rd downs and in the red zone on both sides of the ball, and I think that will ultimately be the difference.

Packers win, and go whoop on whoever from the AFC.

 

[Fat Dogs]

Ball security beats the Bucs.

Brees and the Saints handed the game to the Bucs tonight.

Packers were in control of the first meeting, until the 2 interceptions. After that, Rodgers was rattled and knocked off his game. I don't think either of those things happen this time around.

The Packers offense is also playing better and just tore through the NFL's #1 defense.

Exactly. Anyone who thinks the Packers physicality in the trenches doesn’t match the Bucs needs to go back and watch our past 2 games. Our D plays much better at home.

HOME:
27 sacks and 50 QB hits

AWAY:
14 sacks and 31 QB hits

we had zero sacks against Brady the first time around and that won’t happen again.

 

[pacmaniac]

Means nothing.

Different teams, different seasons, different players.

Yeah, different players. Whatever personnel he has, he can't figure out a way to stop Brady. It's not a good pattern.

 

[Dantés]

The Tampa offense sucked tonight.

They scored three touchdowns because they got three interceptions on the plus side of the field because Brees is shot. Those three drives totaled 63 yards.

They otherwise had 7 drives that started on their own side of the field, and they scored 6 points.

The Bucs are a great offensive team, but they were lousy tonight.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Jeeeesh, after reading some of the posts here, I would have thought the Packers played today....and lost!

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[longtimefan]

Yeah, different players. Whatever personnel he has, he can't figure out a way to stop Brady. It's not a good pattern.

Having greatest coach ever with Brady had nothing to do with it?

 

[red4tribe]

Can our offense score 40+ points against the Bucs? We're gonna need it.

This is a terrifying stat. Mike Pettine has lost EIGHT STRAIGHT GAMES AGAINST TOM BRADY, giving up an average of 34 points in those losses!

2020: Bucs 38-10
2018: Patriots 31-17
2013: Patriots 23-21
2013: Patriots 34-20
2012: Patriots 29-26
2012: Patriots 49-19
2011: Patriots 30-21
2011: Patriots 37-16
2010: Jets 28-14
2010: Patriots 45-3
2010: Jets 28-21
2009: Jets 16-9
2009: Patriots 31-14

To be completely fair to Pettine, those Jets teams after 2010 weren't very good. And our defense didn't really give up 38 points to the Bucs this year. Rodgers threw one pick six, and his other INT was returned to the 2 yard line, so the offense basically spotted them 14 points. Not that the defense played particularly well, but it wasn't as bad as it might seem on first glance.

 

[Poppa San]

The cold weather will have ZERO affect on Brady he has always played in the cold.

And my sister grew up in Wisconsin yet she lost the ability to handle the cold when she moved to Florida in her 20's. Being in the cold adapts one better than just showing up for a weekend business trip. Plus as noted upthread, the other 50 players beyond Gronk aren't NE winter hardened.

 

[pacmaniac]

Having greatest coach ever with Brady had nothing to do with it?

Brady proved this year that he was more integral to the Pats success than Belichick was.

 

[longtimefan]

And my sister grew up in Wisconsin yet she lost the ability to handle the cold when she moved to Florida in her 20's. Being in the cold adapts one better than just showing up for a weekend business trip. Plus as noted upthread, the other 50 players beyond Gronk aren't NE winter hardened.

I thought Brady should be able to handle it..however I posted this article 2 times?

https://sports.yahoo.com/tom-brady-...-after-20-years-in-new-england-160310506.html

 

[longtimefan]

Brady proved this year that he was more integral to the Pats success than Belichick was.

So he didnt make the Pats def better? Brady did that?
That has nothing to do with this

I dont hold lot of stock in this theory..could this be an issue? Maybe but the players arent the same..

So my questions are.

Who were the players he had then?
What were their Def ranks in points scored for entire season those years?


For those stat geeks..

Let PAC figure it out

 

[saintsfan9]

Saints fan here,

Just wanted to pop in to same some things about the game next weekend. Honestly, if the Packers don't beat the Bucs I would be very surprised.

1) As said above, if Brady is pressured, he crumbles. Against the Saints tonight Brady was 18/33 for 199 and 2 TD....our defensive line barely touched him (he was sacked once). So if GB can actually get to Brady those stats will be even lower. He's had better protection in the playoffs but if the Smiths or anyone else can consistently reach Brady he's done for.

2) The Bucs offense padded its stats in its last 4 regular season games against....the Vikings, Falcons, Lions, and Falcons again. I wouldn't underestimate them but Evans, Brown, and Godwin combined for only 6 rec, 47 yds, and 1 TD against the Saints tonight. Granted, the Saints secondary matches up better with Bucs receivers than GB does. Also, Brady has had a good statistical year but his accuracy is not the same - especially in this system. Brown does not look the same either, still good, but not great.

3) Whoever says the cold won't affect the Bucs is mad. Brady may not be affected but the rest of their team certainly will be. Dome/warm weather teams will always struggle more in the cold. Definitely have felt this as a Saints fan.

On the other hand, Fournette looked pretty good against Washington and the Saints gave up 120 rushing yards to Fournette and Jones while being the #3 rushing defense. Packers rushing D isn't as good as the Saints so it will be interesting to see how the Packers fare here. And like I said before, the Saints secondary definitely matches up much better against the Bucs passing attack than GB does so it will be interesting to see how that plays out.

Ultimately, I don't think the Bucs can outscore Rodgers - he looks on top of his game, unstoppable against anyone but maybe Mahomes. Your offensive line looks dominant, I don't see the Bucs getting to Rodgers. Bucs would not be in the NFCCG if not for turnovers so I think Rodgers shuts the door in Brady's face unless there are some major turnovers.

Good luck. New Orleans - and the rest of the NFL - will be rooting for you to stop Brady.

 

[RRyder]

We need to try something different. Kamara went nowhere. So running down the Bucs D won't be useful.

Short throws and good use of TEs is the way. Plus using RBs for catching.

You mean outside of the 85 yards rushing averaging just under 5 yards a carry?

Honestly the Saints would've won if they just used him more

 

[RRyder]

Screw it. I'll say it. This Bucs team is just a slightly better version of Bears teams we've seen over the years.

Not schematically or personal wise. But if they don't force 2 or 3 TOs they can't win against a decent team. Its pretty much the only time they've beaten a good team all year. Actually not even "pretty much". It is the only times they've beaten a good team this year

Gratz they got lucky enough to get Rodgers playing arguably the worst game of his career.

As long as Rodgers and company don't feed points to the other side this Bucs team isn't going to match this Packers offense point for point