Jordan Love signed to 4 year fully guaranteed deal

[GreenNGold_81]

The appropriate way to think about any Favre-Rodgers tutelage is Rodgers was able to observe up close and personal what not to do as well as the other. I seriously doubt Favre ever took Rodgers through the paces on the grease board or with the tape machine rolling.

I think the competitive fire between the two led to Rodgers developing his arm more. He wasn't touted for his arm strength coming into the league. Rodgers undoubtedly learned via osmosis and yes that included watching what not to do.

 

[Packer Fan in SD]

Ya’ll can argue till the cows come home, but the fact of the matter is this: the peeps that are paid a crapload of money to make these picks felt he was the guy they want to place their future on. They either keep making the picks or get fired, but it is their career on the line, and they live or die on their choices.

 

[gopkrs]

I think I have read all the posts but have not seen one that sounds reasonable as to why they gave Love a fully guaranteed contract. I don't think it is a real big deal but there must be a reason. It does not sound normal. And I don't buy that we just want him to feel comfortable. At least that sounds bizarre to me.

 

[OldSchool101]

It had been awhile since I cross examined Love, but this story was an invitation to do just that. I went back and reviewed Jordan’s stats and spent several hours reviewing his game film from 2018 and 2019 in condensed format and reading multiple links by scouts etc..

I’m convinced that Jordan Love is a gamble, but one with an incredible ceiling. He was the consensus 4th best QB in this draft, even with the known deficiencies of being raw and needing more time. That reminded me of why we drafted him likely 1-2 years earlier than we needed a successor at QB.

His 2019 Junior season was repeatedly filled with mistakes by both Love and nearly everyone around him, which led me to believe there was a lot of confusion with the new OC and largely new roster.
I saw multiple times where the Center prematurely snapped the ball and left Love chasing it around in the backfield. Dropped passes (several in the Paint) and multiple fingertip throws that a more athletic Wideout would’ve surely snagged. A somewhat raw QB with a gun for an arm, but with a serious lack of talent and consistency around him. He absolutely smokes Boston College in 2018 and by 2019 their Boston College Match was glaring with a lack of consistency and also lack of playmakers around him.

My initial beef was I didn’t like trading a 4th rounder to get a developmental guy. The way I see it, If he wasn’t there at #30 it wasn’t meant to be and that’s where it’s still value without reaching. Plus, we’ve had a history of success in that 4th round area at LB etc.. But obviously Gute was willing to sacrifice an additional 4th round selection to ensure he was a Packer, so I respect that.

It may be wise to keep Boyle as a 3rd option this year while Jordan learns the playbook. If Love can remedy a few areas of concern (he needs to see dropping LB’s and anticipate out-routes better) he’s going to be really good.

 

[sschind]

I think I have read all the posts but have not seen one that sounds reasonable as to why they gave Love a fully guaranteed contract. I don't think it is a real big deal but there must be a reason. It does not sound normal. And I don't buy that we just want him to feel comfortable. At least that sounds bizarre to me.

22 of the top 26 picks in 2019 received fully guaranteed contracts. Only #1 Murray, #20 Fant, #25 M. Brown and #26 M. Sweat did not. In 2018 it was 21 of the top 26. It's not a rare thing anymore.

Once you get out of the top 10 its less than 20 million for the four years so its not a real big deal. They are making it sound like a ground breaking deal. The first #26 pick to get a 100 percent guarantee. Well just last year the #24 pick got one and he wasn't a QB so a #26 QB getting one for just over 12 million doesn't surprise me at all

 

[jon]

No idea why we should guarantee a backup contract! One headscrather after another regarding Love.

I read that last year the first 24 picks got guaranteed contracts. Love getting it at 26 is not such a big stretch.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...hing-never-given-to-a-no-26-overall-pick-per/

Might or might not be a good idea, but it's being done across the league.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I think the competitive fire between the two led to Rodgers developing his arm more. He wasn't touted for his arm strength coming into the league. Rodgers undoubtedly learned via osmosis and yes that included watching what not to do.

Here's a piece that hits on the key points from scouts's perspectives.

https://www.si.com/nfl/2015/04/24/aaron-rodgers-alex-smith-2005-nfl-draft

Arm strength was a perceived issue which in retrospect it was not. I don't think I've heard a scout or GM say, "this guy has all the tools except arm strength but but we can fix that." That's because it doesn't happen except at the margins with some mechanical adjustments. It is expected that what you buy is what you get.

I believe the key reasons scouts were put off by Rodgers were 1) he was thought to be merely a product of the Tedford system at Cal and (2) the unconventional QB mechanics that Tedford taught:

• "Lande: [Tedford] was just such a brilliant quarterback coach. He’s been able to mask flaws in other quarterbacks that failed in the NFL [Trent Dilfer, Akili Smith, David Carr, Joey Harrington, Kyle Boller], which is a red flag for NFL teams. Because of him playing in that system, you rarely saw Aaron have to manipulate the defense with his eyes. You rarely saw him have to move safeties, things like that. … [Other] scouts I talked to had concerns about arm strength, which was not something I was concerned with.

• "Lyman: People ripped on [Rodgers] for [holding] the ball too high. … [It] allowed him to have a quicker release, and to me [the criticism] did not make any sense."

The pros hate that ball position at the ear. You don't see any QBs in the pros who do that. Changing mechanics is a risky business and when mechanical flaws are detected a discount has to be applied to the prospect. There's actually a good reason for the pros hating that and why you don't see any pro QBs with that ball position. It's fine for standing in a clean pocket making short throws in a spread-like offense, but as soon as the QB has to move to throw it inhibits mobility and is unnatural. Try it. Do little jog around your den with both hands at your ear vs. chest or waist. Now do it imaging the ball is one hand.

So, who fixed Rodgers mechanics, a guy who throws from more platforms, arm angles and body positions than anybody you can think of? Maybe not quite as many as before the put that plate in his shoulder, but that's a topic for another time. Favre sure didn't "fix" him. Was it McCarthy? Nope.

Rodgers has said the mechanical transition was easy because he'd never used those Tedford mechanics until he got Cal. There is a reason to believe him. He went to the unfamiliar Tedford mechanics and made starter in the 5th. game of his first season at Cal. If that transition was fairly easy there's no reason to think swithching back to something familiar would be all that hard. Rodgers may have exaggerated a tad--he was still showing with some high ball postion in his first preseason but it evaporated pretty quickly.

• "Mayock: It’s a little bit similar to the conversations we have today about the quarterbacks coming out of spread offenses. We need “meaningful throws,” throws that aren’t bubble screens. I remember charting a lot of Aaron Rodgers’s throws, and a big percentage were within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, which is similar to today’s spread. And … there was some criticism of the Tedford quarterbacks. They were system quarterbacks."

The arm strength rap was a function of Rodgers not being called upon to use it. Here's the funny thing about all this--Smith who went #1 wasn't scouted to have a big arm and he played in short throw offense. That takes you full circle back to being Tedford system failures in the pros and the Tedford mechanics.

A couple of things not mentioned here that might have also factored into the thinking of some of the GMs that passed on Rodgers:

• He's only 6'2". More so then than now, the picture of the elite QB prospect in the dictionary was 6'5", better to see and throw over the line. Brees had just come off his first good season in his 4th. year. He might have been perceived as a one-off or a guy without staying power. It wasn't until Wilson that the thinking on this started to bend in some quarters. Think about height on a spectrum of risks; 6'2" at that time would have to be discounted.

• Rodgers tends toward the introspective, inner-directed. He might not have impressed some GMs as sufficiently rah-rah, too laid back, lacking competitive fire. Note the Packers did not even interview him so "personality" that is explored in the interview process evidently did not factor in.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I read that last year the first 24 picks got guaranteed contracts. Love getting it at 26 is not such a big stretch.

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...hing-never-given-to-a-no-26-overall-pick-per/

Might or might not be a good idea, but it's being done across the league.

According to the rules of the rookie salary scale, all four years of salary must be guaranteed for 1st. rounders. Signing bonus money is by definition guaranteed. So, right away there is constriction on how much a team can squeeze out.

If you're going to take the stance that you're going to hold onto a 1st. round pick through the 3rd. year to see if he develops into a decent player if he hasn't already, then the only thing that matters is the 4th. year liability. Kyler Murray's #1 pick fully guaranteed contract has $200,000 in cap savings in the 4th. year. Were he deemed a bust at the conclusion of year 3, relegated to the bench in favor of the next shiny new thing, there's an out.

When looking at a 26th. pick at $12 mil, $3 mil per year, for the sake of argument consider last's year's pick, Montez Sweat. As noted previously, only $500,000 of his contract is not guaranteed, a negligible amount.

Even if the rules did not dictate substantial guarantees, how risky would he be at that price fully guaranteed?

Taking an edge guy in the first round you're hoping for maybe at least a top 15 player, maybe not first year but probably in the second. But what if all you get is a decent player by rotational standards, say a Fackrell at a 40% snap count. The $3 mil per year doesn't look too bad. Cheap contracts, guaranteed or not, are de-risked.

 

[OldSchool101]

According to the rules of the rookie salary scale, all four years of salary must be guaranteed for 1st. rounders. Signing bonus money is by definition guaranteed. So, right away there is constriction on how much a team can squeeze out.

If you're going to take the stance that you're going to hold onto a 1st. round pick through the 3rd. year to see if he develops into a decent player if he hasn't already, then the only thing that matters is the 4th. year liability. Kyler Murray's #1 pick fully guaranteed contract has $200,000 in cap savings in the 4th. year. Were he deemed a bust at the conclusion of year 3, relegated to the bench in favor of the next shiny new thing, there's an out.

When looking at a 26th. pick at $12 mil, $3 mil per year, for the sake of argument consider last's year's pick, Montez Sweat. As noted previously, only $500,000 of his contract is not guaranteed, a negligible amount.

Even if the rules did not dictate substantial guarantees, how risky would he be at that price fully guaranteed?

Taking an edge guy in the first round you're hoping for maybe at least a top 15 player, maybe not first year but probably in the second. But what if all you get is a decent player by rotational standards, say a Fackrell at a 40% snap count. The $3 mil per year doesn't look too bad. Cheap contracts, guaranteed or not, are de-risked.

Yes. It’s certainly a cost vs. benefit. I’m a bit of a broken record on the benefit of having a reliable #2 QB, in particular when you have a #1 who is aging or has a track record of injury (Rodgers now qualifies at both). Also in a system that is more balanced in running the ball and doesn’t solely rely on its passing game to succeed.
I see it as a Risk/Reward thing and naturally many fans like myself would’ve rather seen his draft timing meet our needs a little better. I thought 2022 was the ideal year after Rodgers latest extension because, as you pointed out in other threads, his contract monetarily eluded to Rodgers not going anywhere anytime soon. That fits with a high ceiling, 3 year starter who needs time to develop. He’s the QB version of OLB Rashan Gary.

Also we need to recognize that not every draft will the Packers organization have an opportunity to hand pick a QB who fits their system within several selections of our original, 11th hour draft placement. Even if Love is in the shadows for a couple years on a guaranteed salary, imagine what we can do with say..
$14-$30 mil savings (or whatever in 2022-23) at the QB position if he’s to be perform at 90-95% of Aaron Rodgers twilight years level. Plus any trade benefit of Aaron’s last contractual seasons.

There is no better incentive like competition for your job. The worst thing that can happen is we pay him $3mil annual as a backup QB and Aaron re-peaks at MVP caliber, which while unlikely, wouldn’t hurt my feelings.

 

[XPack]

I read that last year the first 24 picks got guaranteed contracts. Love getting it at 26 is not such a big stretch.

How many of that 24 are guaranteed backups?

 

[OldSchool101]

How many of that 24 are guaranteed backups?

Even if that was the case? The average mean salary of backup QB’s in the NFL today floats in between $2 mil and $3 mil, so paying a QB $3 mil as a backup for his entire contract is not out of the normal confines of QB salaries across the league. In addition, one would have to guarantee he is a backup for all 4 seasons, which I think would be a premature assertion. How do we know he isn’t the starter in a couple years? His value won’t be fully realized until his contract is up and if it’s as a career backup, he’s a smidge over league average.

The second point I’d make is QB’s hold a higher monetary priority than other position groups. So when evaluating guarantees, they should command towards the top of the spectrum.

https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2019/...uarterback-value-teddy-bridgewater-matt-moore

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It had been awhile since I cross examined Love, but this story was an invitation to do just that. I went back and reviewed Jordan’s stats and spent several hours reviewing his game film from 2018 and 2019 in condensed format and reading multiple links by scouts etc..

He absolutely smokes Boston College in 2018 and by 2019 their Boston College Match was glaring with a lack of consistency and also lack of playmakers around him.

It might be worth taking a closer look at Love's 2018 stats as I have mentioned in various threads in the days after the Packers selected him.

While that numbers look impressive at first glance it should be noted that he threw 18 touchdown passes in only four games against BYU, UNLV, New Mexico and San Jose State, teams that combined to finish the season 15-34.

He struggled against the only Power 5 conference team Utah State played that season throwing no touchdowns and two interceptions against Michigan State, a team that finished only 7-6 as well.

As a side note, he never played against Boston College.

According to the rules of the rookie salary scale, all four years of salary must be guaranteed for 1st. rounders.

That's not entirely true although teams need to guarantee close to the entire contract if they decide to do it for the fourth year salary for any draft pick as noted below. Obviously that mostly applies to first rounders.

Here's the article from the current CBA:

Guaranteed Rookie Salary.

Rookie Salary (excluding the performance incentives described in Section 6 below) may be guaranteed for skill, football-related injury and/or Salary Cap-related contract terminations, provided, however, that no player’s Rookie Salary (excluding performance incentives) in his third League Year or fourth League Year (for Drafted Rookies) may be guaranteed for skill, football-related injury or Salary Cap-related contract termination unless the player’s entire Rookie Salary (excluding performance incentives) has been similarly guaranteed (i.e., for the same type(s) of contract termination) in the immediately preceding year of the contract. By way of example, if a Drafted Rookie signs a four-year contract with Rookie Salary (excluding performance in- centives) of $1,000,000 in year one, $1,250,000 in year two, $1,500,000 in year three, and $1,750,000 in year four, no portion of his year-four Rookie Salary may be guaranteed for skill and injury unless the player’s full Rookie Salary (excluding performance incentives) for year two ($1,250,000) and year three ($1,500,000) is also guaranteed for skill and injury. For the avoidance of doubt, and by way of further example, a Club may guarantee year- four Rookie Salary for injury only when the Club also guarantees years two and three either just for injury, or for injury, skill, and Salary Cap-related termination.

The worst thing that can happen is we pay him $3mil annual as a backup QB and Aaron re-peaks at MVP caliber, which while unlikely, wouldn’t hurt my feelings.

There's a worse scenario as well with Rodgers either not performing at a high level anymore or getting injured and Love not being up to the task.

 

[OldSchool101]

As a side note, he never played against Boston College.

My bad I got my B’s mixed. You’re right, That was supposed to say BYU, not BC

It might be worth taking a closer look at Love's 2018 stats as I have mentioned in various threads in the days after the Packers selected him.

While that numbers look impressive at first glance it should be noted that he threw 18 touchdown passes in only four games against BYU, UNLV, New Mexico and San Jose State, teams that combined to finish the season 15-34.

I took you up on that. He also had 3 rushing to that remaining 14 passing TD for an additional individual 17 TD’s. Keep in mind he totaled 39 TD’s.

So let me get this right, in an attempt to throttle Jordan Love, you cherry picked his 4 highest passing TD games. Then you choose 1 of the only 2 season losses Utah State had that season in a 13 contest season? Ummm. Ok.

So while I see the “searching splits“ angle to dismantle Jordan’s full body of work, I take issue with partial truths. That selective argument of randomly choosing the highest scoring games method only works if it was their only area of success. Here it does not show that. To be completely fair, let’s also include the other 9 Chapters of the 13 Chapter book of 2018 Jordan Love. The ones which ultimately garnered the respect of being a Rated Football program.

The remaining 8 contests (+1 Bowl game) Utah State went a combined 7-2. As you pointed out, admittedly, Utah State lost by just 7 points to Michigan State 31-38, for an 11-2 final record. Not something so shameful as you’re implying.
Let’s take your own advice and let’s look closer at your own example with 7-6 Michigan State. 2 of Michigan States losses were from the hands of #3 OSU and #14 Michigan. Three more of the remaining 4 losses were be 3 points, 1 point, 3 points. So let’s quit the pretending 2018 Michigan State was some awful team that couldn’t compete.

The argument of “Inferior competition” (SOS) is only admissible if you use the second part of the equation that you conveniently forgot called (SRS). Utah State ranked #22nd out of 130 teams. It specifically accounts for any argument of SOS/SRS and includes the FULL body of work, not cherry-picked chapters. Jordan Love absolutely dismantled those 4 teams you presented (Jordan single handily put up nearly SIX TD’s per game). Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t that what you’re supposed to do to inferior competition? Let’s look further..

btw, in 2018 Utah State finished #2 out of 130 teams in Offensive scoring and led by a Sophomore QB named Jordan Love. The final AP poll had them ranked #22 and we all know the whole idea behind polling rankings take to account the Conference strength and more specifically their Opponent Strength during that 2018 season. I am confident that had love pulled out that last Win against Boise State they would’ve been a consensus top 12 ranked team, which is really strong for a Mountain team.

In retrospect, I guess it’s not so bad then. If the worst thing that a person taking an anti-Jordan Love position can use is him dismantling a group of teams like they were Division 3 types? That’s actually a compliment to him.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

So let me get this right, in an attempt to throttle Jordan Love, you cherry picked his 4 highest passing TD games. Then you choose 1 of the only 2 season losses Utah State had that season in a 13 contest season? Ummm. Ok.

Michigan State being the only Power 5 conference opponent Love faced in 2018 was the obvious reason I pointed out his performance against them.

So while I see the “searching splits“ angle to dismantle Jordan’s full body of work, I take issue with partial truths. That selective argument of randomly choosing the highest scoring games method only works if it was their only area of success. Here it does not show that. To be completely fair, let’s also include the other 9 Chapters of the 13 Chapter book of 2018 Jordan Love. The ones which ultimately garnered the respect of being a Rated Football program.

The remaining 8 contests (+1 Bowl game) Utah State went a combined 7-2. As you pointed out, admittedly, Utah State lost by just 7 points to Michigan State 31-38, for an 11-2 final record. Not something so shameful as you’re implying.
Let’s take your own advice and let’s look closer at your own example with 7-6 Michigan State. 2 of Michigan States losses were from the hands of #3 OSU and #14 Michigan. Three more of the remaining 4 losses were be 3 points, 1 point, 3 points. So let’s quit the pretending 2018 Michigan State was some awful team that couldn’t compete.

The argument of “Inferior competition” (SOS) is only admissible if you use the second part of the equation that you conveniently forgot called (SRS). Utah State ranked #22nd out of 130 teams. It specifically accounts for any argument of SOS/SRS and includes the FULL body of work, not cherry-picked chapters. Jordan Love absolutely dismantled those 4 teams you presented (Jordan single handily put up nearly SIX TD’s per game). Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t that what you’re supposed to do to inferior competition? Let’s look further..

I'm sorry but there's no reason to put any stock into SRS if Utah State ended up ahead of Michigan State in that category while playing as many games against Power 5 conference opponents as FCS teams that finished 1-10.

btw, in 2018 Utah State finished #2 out of 130 teams in Offensive scoring and led by a Sophomore QB named Jordan Love. The final AP poll had them ranked #22 and we all know the whole idea behind polling rankings take to account the Conference strength and more specifically their Opponent Strength during that 2018 season. I am confident that had love pulled out that last Win against Boise State they would’ve been a consensus top 12 ranked team, which is really strong for a Mountain team.

In retrospect, I guess it’s not so bad then. If the worst thing that a person taking an anti-Jordan Love position can use is him dismantling a group of teams like they were Division 3 types? That’s actually a compliment to him.

For the record Utah State finished fourth in the FBS in points scored in 2018, mostly based on facing inferior opponents.

 

[Conso]

I think I have read all the posts but have not seen one that sounds reasonable as to why they gave Love a fully guaranteed contract. I don't think it is a real big deal but there must be a reason. It does not sound normal. And I don't buy that we just want him to feel comfortable. At least that sounds bizarre to me.

It could be as simple as limiting the amount of stressors that Love would have to deal with. If his contract is fully guaranteed that's one stressor off the table when it comes to performing especially when he's probably going to ride the pine for at least a year or two.

 

[PackAttack12]

It could be as simple as limiting the amount of stressors that Love would have to deal with. If his contract is fully guaranteed that's one stressor off the table when it comes to performing especially when he's probably going to ride the pine for at least a year or two.

By all means let's not let the (hopeful) future starting quarterback feel any stress.

 

[gopkrs]

By all means let's not let the (hopeful) future starting quarterback feel any stress.

Anyway, as Sschind pointed out...it is not out of the ordinary and so no big deal.

 

[Hbg Packers fan]

Hopefully he won't injure himself kneeling for the national anthem. Lol.

 

[gbgary]

How many of that 24 are guaranteed backups?

i'll bet half of them aren't starters. he's only a guaranteed backup for one year. a second would be surprising and very disappointing to Gute and MLF. they want/need that huge $50-55m cap windfall they'll get for '22 instead of settling for half that. heck FO and HC jobs could be on the line by then too.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

i'll bet half of them aren't starters. he's only a guaranteed backup for one year. a second would be surprising and very disappointing to Gute and MLF. they want/need that huge $50-55m cap windfall they'll get for '22 instead of settling for half that. heck FO and HC jobs could be on the line by then too.

First of all the Packers would save close to $45 million in cap space by trading Rodgers before the start of the 2021 league year.

While we're at it let's move on from the Smiths and Davante Adams as well resulting in another $69 million saved. That's awesome. Too bad the team won't win any games but we can celebrate being among the league leaders in cap space.

As a side note, if the jobs of Gutekunst and MLF are on the line in 2022 it would be awfully smart to keep Rodgers to save their *****.

 

[gbgary]

First of all the Packers would save close to $45 million in cap space by trading Rodgers before the start of the 2021 league year.

While we're at it let's move on from the Smiths and Davante Adams as well resulting in another $69 million saved. That's awesome. Too bad the team won't win any games but we can celebrate being among the league leaders in cap space.

As a side note, if the jobs of Gutekunst and MLF are on the line in 2022 it would be awfully smart to keep Rodgers to save their *****.

i know we'll have at least $40 million by parting ways with rodgers. i pointed that out in the performance thread. i threw in 10-15m in case there's a cap increase for 22. they'll need that windfall for people they're extending soon when their larger cap bites kick in. so they can keep their best players.
your second paragraph is ridiculous and you know it.
by not moving on, having two more meh seasons with no cap room, and pushing that windfall further away, there very well could be jobs on the line.

 

[PackAttack12]

by not moving on, having two more meh seasons with no cap room, and pushing that windfall further away, there very well could be jobs on the line.

two MORE? I didn't realize this past season was meh. lmao

 

[Deleted member 6794]

i know we'll have at least $40 million by parting ways with rodgers. i pointed that out in the performance thread. i threw in 10-15m in case there's a cap increase for 22. they'll need that windfall for people they're extending soon when their larger cap bites kick in. so they can keep their best players.

It's a fact that the Packers would save close to $45 million in cap space until the end of the 2022 season if they trade Rodgers before the start of the '21 league year. There's no $10-15 million of cap space to throw in.

BTW trading Rodgers precludes keeping the best players approach.

your second paragraph is ridiculous and you know it.

Yeah, I know. It's as ridiculous as considering moving on from a HOF quarterback being a great idea. Unfortunately you don't understand that.

 

[Sanguine camper]

The guaranteed contract is another indication that Gute and MLF are ready to move on from a HOF QB and go with a guy who threw a ton of interceptions in the Mt West conference. At #26 and a sure back up in 2020, Love didn't have the bargaining position to get a fully guaranteed deal but he was handed the perk. Why, because his agent came in arguing like his client is going to be a starter quite soon instead of holding a clipboard for most of that contract.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The guaranteed contract is another indication that Gute and MLF are ready to move on from a HOF QB and go with a guy who threw a ton of interceptions in the Mt West conference. At #26 and a sure back up in 2020, Love didn't have the bargaining position to get a fully guaranteed deal but he was handed the perk. Why, because his agent came in arguing like his client is going to be a starter quite soon instead of holding a clipboard for most of that contract.

A lot of Packers fans put too much stock into Love's contract being fully guaranteed. In my opinion it's a non issue and definitely doesn't mean the team is ready to move on from Rodgers.