Jared Abbrederis

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Almost every D1 college and pro WR runs the 40 in shorts and tee in the range of 4.4 - 4.7 .... The exact number has nothing to do with how good that WR is or will become. The game isn't played in shorts and tee.
Speed, quickness, route running, catch radius, jumping height, and body control all factor into getting the opportunity to catch a pass. You dont need to excel in every one of those, but you cant be horrible either. Speed is just another tool in the toolbox that makes you a better WR. If you dont have speed you can make ip for that with other tools.
 

mradtke66

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You dont need to excel in every one of those, but you cant be horrible either. Speed is just another tool in the toolbox that makes you a better WR. If you dont have speed you can make ip for that with other tools.

True.

However, there seems to be a very, very clear line. 4.7 speed seems to be "horrible." Which I believe is HRE's thesis. And one I completely agree with.

If you're a 4.7 guy, you need to be other-worldly with your other tools. And its seems only 2 receivers in the last 35 years or so that could succeed with that time.
 

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While I expect Adams to make significant improvements from his rookie season it's tough to have three 1,000 yard receivers on the team, especially with a QB like Rodgers who likes to spread the ball around. This feat has only been accomplished four times in NFL history



If I recall correctly Janis had two circus catches in camp and turned amother two shorts into TDs with his speed during the preseason playing against second- and third-stringers. His route running wasn't close to being polished enough to get on the field with Rodgers though. There's hope he has improved significantly to add another dimension to the Packers offense.

Charles Johnson was fifth in receptions, third in receiving yards and had only two TDs for the Vikings. He put up nice stats for a seventh rounder coming out of a small program but he wasn't the Vikings #1 receiver last season.
He was the #1 at the end of last season. Stats over 16 games wouldnt disprove that. On the actual depth chart on line he was listed as #1 over Patterson and Jennings. Thats what caught my attention in the first place. Since Jennings was let go and Wallace came there for big bucks. He is down to #2. Still ahead of their #1 Patterson. Watching the games too, you could see Johnson had taken the lead role with their young QB whats his name...
 

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Now that Montgomery is added into the mix I would say anything after #3 is up in the air. I think Adams is our #3 guy without much of a doubt but that is not to say any of the others couldn't come in and displace him. You have to figure the Packers plan on keeping 6 WRs this year if everyone makes it to the season healthy. Nelson, Cobb and Adams are gimmies. Unless Montgomery totally blows it (which I don't think he will) he is pretty much a lock, especially if he can take over either of the return duties and his elusiveness after he has the ball are to be believed. That leaves Abbredaris and Janis (I don't think White or any of the UDFAs are much of a threat beyond PS material) If Abby has completely recovered from the injury and can compete fully you have to figure he will be given every chance to show what he can do since he didn't get the opportunity last season. I could see Janis being sort of like Boykin. He had a chance to shine and he didn't really take advantage of it so he could be low man on the totem pole so to speak.
 
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On the subject of Cordarrelle Patterson, a #29 pick in 2013, the guy scored an 11 on the Wonderlic, about on par with the average random answer score of 10.

Some bonus info: Tavon Austin, the #8 also in 2013, scored a 7. Justin Hunter, the #34 in that same draft, scored a 12.

All three have had underwhelming production in their first 2 years. Patterson and Austin saw their numbers go down from their rookie seasons.

Whether it's a matter of cognitive ability or functional illiteracy, these kinds of scores raise serious questions as to whether these players can read and comprehend an NFL playbook.

Thompson avoids these kinds of guys, to his credit. One notable exception comes to mind in the form of the Vince Young emergency move.

The average NFL player scores a 20, in line with the general population. The current Packer draft class scored at or above the NFL average for their position group. (I don't see any data for D-linemen from two different sources, but it's likely 19 or lower):

Randall - 18
Rollins - 19
Montgomery - 24
Ryan - 22
Hundley - 26 (at the low end of the range where successful QBs are clustered; Favre was an outlier at 22; the NFL average is 24).
Ripkowski - 31
Ringo - 19
Backman - 22
 

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Now that Montgomery is added into the mix I would say anything after #3 is up in the air. I think Adams is our #3 guy without much of a doubt but that is not to say any of the others couldn't come in and displace him. You have to figure the Packers plan on keeping 6 WRs this year if everyone makes it to the season healthy. Nelson, Cobb and Adams are gimmies. Unless Montgomery totally blows it (which I don't think he will) he is pretty much a lock, especially if he can take over either of the return duties and his elusiveness after he has the ball are to be believed. That leaves Abbredaris and Janis (I don't think White or any of the UDFAs are much of a threat beyond PS material) If Abby has completely recovered from the injury and can compete fully you have to figure he will be given every chance to show what he can do since he didn't get the opportunity last season. I could see Janis being sort of like Boykin. He had a chance to shine and he didn't really take advantage of it so he could be low man on the totem pole so to speak.

They are not going to arbitrarily put Abbrederis ahead of Janis. Janis has a full year of experience in the Packers' system and they aren't going throw that away based on a maybe. Janis will enter TC ahead of Abbrederis and if Abbrederis is going to make the team, he is going to have to earn it.
 
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HardRightEdge

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They are not going to arbitrarily put Abbrederis ahead of Janis. Janis has a full year of experience in the Packers' system and they aren't going throw that away based on a maybe. Janis will enter TC ahead of Abbrederis and if Abbrederis is going to make the team, he is going to have to earn it.
Janis will have to earn a job no less than anybody else vying for the 5th. and/or 6th. spots. I believe there will be a 6th. spot given the lack of experience past #3.

As a third round pick, Montgomery would have to melt down to not get a roster spot.
 
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In all seriousness. If Ty continues to impress like he did last week Abby will be fighting for a roster Spot. That said, presuming this thread saying he's 100% holds.. I think Abby makes the cut due to his prowess on returns
 

sschind

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They are not going to arbitrarily put Abbrederis ahead of Janis. Janis has a full year of experience in the Packers' system and they aren't going throw that away based on a maybe. Janis will enter TC ahead of Abbrederis and if Abbrederis is going to make the team, he is going to have to earn it.

And if Janis is going to make the team he is going to have to earn it. If they only keep 5 it will be one of these two that is gone although I like what HRE said about keeping 6 due to lack of experience beyond #3. heck I'd go so far as to say beyond #2 since #3 on down are all no more than 2nd year guys.

If I had to make my predictions I'd say they keep 6 with the order as follows

Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Montgomery, Abbredaris and Janis although the last two could easily flip flop and it really doesn't matter as neither one will get more than 10 catches.
 

GoPGo

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Janis will have to earn a job no less than anybody else vying for the 5th. and/or 6th. spots. I believe there will be a 6th. spot given the lack of experience past #3.

The actual point being that Abbrederis will not go into TC ahead of Janis on the depth chart. Janis has earned the right to be ahead of him going into camp. For that matter, he'll be ahead of Montgomery too. That doesn't mean that can't/won't change.
 

GoPGo

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And if Janis is going to make the team he is going to have to earn it. If they only keep 5 it will be one of these two that is gone although I like what HRE said about keeping 6 due to lack of experience beyond #3. heck I'd go so far as to say beyond #2 since #3 on down are all no more than 2nd year guys.

If I had to make my predictions I'd say they keep 6 with the order as follows

Nelson, Cobb, Adams, Montgomery, Abbredaris and Janis although the last two could easily flip flop and it really doesn't matter as neither one will get more than 10 catches.

I think you got the last two backward, but otherwise probably right.
 

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True.

However, there seems to be a very, very clear line. 4.7 speed seems to be "horrible." Which I believe is HRE's thesis. And one I completely agree with.

If you're a 4.7 guy, you need to be other-worldly with your other tools. And its seems only 2 receivers in the last 35 years or so that could succeed with that time.
Depends how you define succeed. I don't define a successful receiver as those only of HOF calibre. Probably 95%
The actual point being that Abbrederis will not go into TC ahead of Janis on the depth chart. Janis has earned the right to be ahead of him going into camp. For that matter, he'll be ahead of Montgomery too. That doesn't mean that can't/won't change.
I expect to see Abbrederis begin the season on PUP list.
 

mradtke66

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Depends how you define succeed. I don't define a successful receiver as those only of HOF calibre. Probably 95%

Maybe. The problem is no one seems to be able to define "success" and wide receivers who make that list and ran a 4.7 40.

Jerry Rice obviously is successful, but at the extreme end. Who else is there?

What is success? Is it averaging 600 yards or more in a season? One 600+ yard season? Number of touchdowns? Snaps played?
 
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HardRightEdge

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Maybe. The problem is no one seems to be able to define "success" and wide receivers who make that list and ran a 4.7 40.

Jerry Rice obviously is successful, but at the extreme end. Who else is there?

What is success? Is it averaging 600 yards or more in a season? One 600+ yard season? Number of touchdowns? Snaps played?
Rice and Boldin. Nobody who wants to make the counter argument has been able to come up with another name.

It's pretty simple. Start with how few of those receivers there actually are in the NFL. Very few. The only 4.7 Combine guy in this last draft happened to run a 4.5 at his pro day, and he's built as much like a TE as WR. That tells you a lot. So start with what the league thinks about that number.

Now, among those very few who make a roster, a typical level of success would be on par with Jarrett Boykin, a guy who's field speed matches the 40 time. Serviceable, has some ball skills, can run a route. Not a starter, maybe a #4 on a thin roster. And the longer he plays, the more aware of the lack of speed corners become, particularly the guys in the division. That tends to neutralize the strengths.
 

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Physically he really isn't that impressive. I only see him shining if he has complete grasp of his position and the playbook. He is coming off of a knee injury I believe, so my expectations would also be between what Janis & Richard Rodgers did.
Maybe a practice squad guy. Montgomery will be doing more than returning kicks. Injury and lost time didn't help him.
 

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I guess I just don't understand the argument. Wide receivers at the college and pro level all run between 4.4 and 4.7. I'd bet even the walkon WR's at Wisconsin fit in that category.
 
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They are not going to arbitrarily put Abbrederis ahead of Janis. Janis has a full year of experience in the Packers' system and they aren't going throw that away based on a maybe. Janis will enter TC ahead of Abbrederis and if Abbrederis is going to make the team, he is going to have to earn it.

Janis has done absolutely nothing during his rookie season to justify him being ahead of Abbrederis on the depth chart entering training camp. Both of them will have to earn a spot on the roster with Abbrederis having to stay healthy first and foremost.
 

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True.

However, there seems to be a very, very clear line. 4.7 speed seems to be "horrible." Which I believe is HRE's thesis. And one I completely agree with.

If you're a 4.7 guy, you need to be other-worldly with your other tools. And its seems only 2 receivers in the last 35 years or so that could succeed with that time.
Rice never looked slow on the field. There was a track guy on NFLN a few years ago talking about training for the 40. Said the difference in the start can be as much as .15 sec in the guys he trains. If someone is poor or doesnt even train for it, a 4.7 Rice could have been a 4.55 guy all along. I dont know if that os tdue, but i saw him running with much faster dbs and not losung ground. If i was an nfl gm, i think i run the 40 with the players standing upright. Just like in a game.
 

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Janis has done absolutely nothing during his rookie season to justify him being ahead of Abbrederis on the depth chart entering training camp.

You suggesting Abby should be ahead of Janis or that they should be about even? I get Abby had a good start to TC last year, but that's all we've seen of him. He should absolutely be given the chance to compete for that spot, but, coming off a season-ender and having no experience beyond practice, not really sure why he deserves to be ahead of Janis.
 
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You suggesting Abby should be ahead of Janis or that they should be about even? I get Abby had a good start to TC last year, but that's all we've seen of him. He should absolutely be given the chance to compete for that spot, but, coming off a season-ender and having no experience beyond practice, not really sure why he deserves to be ahead of Janis.

I think they should be about even entering training camp. Abbrederis is a way more polished receiver than Janis and he proved that at Wisconsin against elite competition. Take a look back at the Ohio State game when he schooled Bradley Roby (10 catches, 207 yards and a TD) who turned out to be a first round pick by the Broncos and played a significant amount of snaps during his rookie season. Janis, on the other hand, was covered by a NFL ready cornerback once during his last season at Saginaw Valley in Brandon Dixon (sixth round pick by the Jets) and had his worst game of the season with only three receptions.

The reason why they should be on par is that Abbrederis can´t stay healthy.
 

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Janis has done absolutely nothing during his rookie season to justify him being ahead of Abbrederis on the depth chart entering training camp.

He has a full year of actual WORK in the Packer's system. Even though he only played in a couple games, he participated in nearly every practice. He also had two TDs and a nice kickoff return in preseason. What, exactly, did Abbrederis do in HIS rookie season? Oh, right...
 
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He has a full year of actual WORK in the Packer's system. Even though he only played in a couple games, he participated in nearly every practice. He also had two TDs and a nice kickoff return in preseason. What, exactly, did Abbrederis do in HIS rookie season? Oh, right...

Wow, Janis already has an entire season of working on the scout team with either Flynn or Tolzien throwing him the ball??? That doesn´t make up for his shortcomings playing for a division II college.

And please stop putting too much stock into preseason stats, nobody cares about a receiver making plays against second- or third-stringers on defense.
 
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I still see Abby as a primary candidate on returns and possible contributor on long down sets. As a returner, it doesn't hurt to have a primary backup there of even if he doesn't win that starting role. Right now, the return role is up for grabs more than any.
As we each Know, Every player is 1 injury away from being a major contributor (James Starks in the 2010 playoffs is a perfect example of how injuries propel players into the limelight). Remember, Starks missed his Senior year due to injury and was a DB through much of his college career. Anything goes. We also all know too well how quickly an injury can happen and it is also a part of this game and one that needs to planned for. Every player going in has to compete 100% for their right to be there.. No exceptions. IMO There is no battle for 6th WR.. In this business its what have you done for me lately" the battle starts who's gonna be #1 WR this year. If they take that attitude they just might make the team.
 

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