Janis certainly has the advantage physically with his size and speed and IMO Abbrederis has the advantage mentally and he has better hands. McCarthy basically said Janis has all the physical attributes to be something special, he just has to ‘put everything together’, including using his catching radius better (as HRE as reiterated) and probably reading defenses better and adjusting his route accordingly. Janis has the advantage of having practiced against NFL players all last year and both have been in the playbook for about a year. If Janis can put everything together I don’t doubt his ceiling is higher than Abbrederis’, but that is not an insignificant “if”. And that doesn't diminish Abbrederis' potential to be the kind of savvy WR who schooled Roby. As we all know, the if for Abby is staying healthy.
I'll put a finer point on the issue of "catch radius" and "putting it all together", particularly with this QB in this offense.
Going back to last year's draft, I observed that Janis' college highlight clips show a lot of body catches.
nfl.com noted the same weakness along with a couple of others:
"Has very small, inconsistent hands -- will cradle the ball and use his body. Is not a nuanced route runner. Does not attack the ball in the air and will give up some break points. Not strong after the catch and will look for a soft landing spot. Can be fazed by traffic. Regularly faced Division II competition. Not a consistent blocker -- does not play to his size."
Why is body catching a problem? Because "Division II open" is a far cry from "NFL open" with an additional jump to "Rodgers open". In the NFL, the margin of separation narrows considerably; receivers must be able to reach out or up for the ball and pull it in without breaking stride, the antithesis of body catching. This becomes more acute with Rodgers who views not throwing INTs as Job #1; he keeps the ball away from defenders more than any other QB thereby calling on his receivers to make catches away from the body while being "thown open". Further, Rodgers throws a faster ball than most...that makes the job that much more demanding.
"Catch radius" issues might not show up on deep balls or fade splash plays in practice where the ball is floating and there's no risk of getting clocked from behind by a LB or safety. But when it comes to the bread and butter short-to-intermediate routes you can't play without it.
In Combine wonky terms, Janis' hands measure 9" even. That's a little small for an NFL wideout. While not a deal breaker, it raises some concerns when considering the "catch radius" or just general hands issues. Consider Nelson measured 10" and Cobb, a smaller man, measured 9 3/8".
As for the issue of "putting it all together", route running is a considerable factor in that equation. Packer wide receivers are called upon to run a lot of option routes, perhaps more than most teams with Packers leaning more than most on down field passing. We're some ways away from the Bill Walsh West Coast that did not rely heavily on option routes or progressions and we're miles away from many of the current spread college offenses that rely on pattern routes with the ball going to the primary receiver.
In running option routes, the receiver has to read the defense the way Rodgers sees it. For example, I believe it was early in 2011 that Jones zigged out when Rodgers was throwing in, resulting in an INT. Jones saw little of the field for 3 or 4 games after that. Or if Rodgers is reading blitz coming from your side, you better know where to break off the route. Route running is not just learning the playbook...that's the rudimentary step 1...it's about reading defenses and film study to identify opponent habits and weaknesses and getting on the same page with the QB.
Janis has had a steep hill to climb, with likely more climbing to go. Will he eventually be a good player? Perhaps. Will he end up being another Heyward-Bay, a tall one-dimensional speed player who consistently leads the league in drop rate? Perhaps. I'd make no assumptions about his being elevated to #4 at this point.
I do look forward to him returning KOs, being a near certain upgrade over Harris.