Jared Abbrederis

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i like janis over abbredaris. even before the knee.

Based on what??? Your extensive analysis of Saginaw Valley State film from 2010-13???

I would love for Janis (like for every other Packers prospect) to turn into a great player but it´s far from a given he ever makes it in the NFL. He has all the athletic abilities necessary to be productive in the league but it´s a huge jump from Division II to the pro level.

Once again, the only time Janis faced an NFL caliber corner during the 2013 season in college he only caught three balls for 49 yards while being covered by Brandon Dixon, who was drafted in the sixth round by the Jets and was released after training camp (Dixon was picked up by the Buccaneers and played 168 snaps for them in 2014).

On the other hand Abbrederis faced elite competition on a regular basis at Wisconsin and had one of his best games against Ohio State in 2013 with 207 receiving yards mostly being covered by Bradley Roby who ended up as a first round pick for the Broncos and played more than 800 snaps as a rookie.

There´s no denying Abbrederis health is a major concern but he has shown during his college career as well as last year´s offseason he´s got all the tools to make it at the pro level.
 

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just from watching with my own eyes. both young wrs are good. but janis has elite speed which is rare. which sets him apart. both guys have good body control, and go get the ball! i honesty believe the d2 factor is the reason we didnt play janis. no injuries at the top of wr depth chart, allowed us to play it safe. but if he had gotten his chance, i dont think you would be so confident in your prediction.
 
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just from watching with my own eyes. both young wrs are good. but janis has elite speed which is rare. which sets him apart. both guys have good body control, and go get the ball! i honesty believe the d2 factor is the reason we didnt play janis. no injuries at the top of wr depth chart, allowed us to play it safe. but if he had gotten his chance, i dont think you would be so confident in your prediction.

Once again, I'm not saying Janis won't make it in the NFL. I don't understand fans appointing him a budding star already though. While he showed some promise in the preseason there's a reason he wasn't able to move past a terrible Boykin on the depth chart.
 

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Janis certainly has the advantage physically with his size and speed and IMO Abbrederis has the advantage mentally and he has better hands. McCarthy basically said Janis has all the physical attributes to be something special, he just has to ‘put everything together’, including using his catching radius better (as HRE as reiterated) and probably reading defenses better and adjusting his route accordingly. Janis has the advantage of having practiced against NFL players all last year and both have been in the playbook for about a year. If Janis can put everything together I don’t doubt his ceiling is higher than Abbrederis’, but that is not an insignificant “if”. And that doesn't diminish Abbrederis' potential to be the kind of savvy WR who schooled Roby. As we all know, the if for Abby is staying healthy.
 
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Janis certainly has the advantage physically with his size and speed and IMO Abbrederis has the advantage mentally and he has better hands. McCarthy basically said Janis has all the physical attributes to be something special, he just has to ‘put everything together’, including using his catching radius better (as HRE as reiterated) and probably reading defenses better and adjusting his route accordingly. Janis has the advantage of having practiced against NFL players all last year and both have been in the playbook for about a year. If Janis can put everything together I don’t doubt his ceiling is higher than Abbrederis’, but that is not an insignificant “if”. And that doesn't diminish Abbrederis' potential to be the kind of savvy WR who schooled Roby. As we all know, the if for Abby is staying healthy.
I'll put a finer point on the issue of "catch radius" and "putting it all together", particularly with this QB in this offense.

Going back to last year's draft, I observed that Janis' college highlight clips show a lot of body catches.

nfl.com noted the same weakness along with a couple of others:

"Has very small, inconsistent hands -- will cradle the ball and use his body. Is not a nuanced route runner. Does not attack the ball in the air and will give up some break points. Not strong after the catch and will look for a soft landing spot. Can be fazed by traffic. Regularly faced Division II competition. Not a consistent blocker -- does not play to his size."

Why is body catching a problem? Because "Division II open" is a far cry from "NFL open" with an additional jump to "Rodgers open". In the NFL, the margin of separation narrows considerably; receivers must be able to reach out or up for the ball and pull it in without breaking stride, the antithesis of body catching. This becomes more acute with Rodgers who views not throwing INTs as Job #1; he keeps the ball away from defenders more than any other QB thereby calling on his receivers to make catches away from the body while being "thown open". Further, Rodgers throws a faster ball than most...that makes the job that much more demanding.

"Catch radius" issues might not show up on deep balls or fade splash plays in practice where the ball is floating and there's no risk of getting clocked from behind by a LB or safety. But when it comes to the bread and butter short-to-intermediate routes you can't play without it.

In Combine wonky terms, Janis' hands measure 9" even. That's a little small for an NFL wideout. While not a deal breaker, it raises some concerns when considering the "catch radius" or just general hands issues. Consider Nelson measured 10" and Cobb, a smaller man, measured 9 3/8".

As for the issue of "putting it all together", route running is a considerable factor in that equation. Packer wide receivers are called upon to run a lot of option routes, perhaps more than most teams with Packers leaning more than most on down field passing. We're some ways away from the Bill Walsh West Coast that did not rely heavily on option routes or progressions and we're miles away from many of the current spread college offenses that rely on pattern routes with the ball going to the primary receiver.

In running option routes, the receiver has to read the defense the way Rodgers sees it. For example, I believe it was early in 2011 that Jones zigged out when Rodgers was throwing in, resulting in an INT. Jones saw little of the field for 3 or 4 games after that. Or if Rodgers is reading blitz coming from your side, you better know where to break off the route. Route running is not just learning the playbook...that's the rudimentary step 1...it's about reading defenses and film study to identify opponent habits and weaknesses and getting on the same page with the QB.

Janis has had a steep hill to climb, with likely more climbing to go. Will he eventually be a good player? Perhaps. Will he end up being another Heyward-Bay, a tall one-dimensional speed player who consistently leads the league in drop rate? Perhaps. I'd make no assumptions about his being elevated to #4 at this point.

I do look forward to him returning KOs, being a near certain upgrade over Harris.
 
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ivo610

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just from watching with my own eyes. both young wrs are good. but janis has elite speed which is rare. which sets him apart. both guys have good body control, and go get the ball! i honesty believe the d2 factor is the reason we didnt play janis. no injuries at the top of wr depth chart, allowed us to play it safe. but if he had gotten his chance, i dont think you would be so confident in your prediction.
Speed is extremely overrated in WRs
 
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Speed is extremely overrated in WRs
I'd say speed is grossly overrated when it is looked at to the exclusion of the many other factors that go into being a good football player, not just WRs.

But there are some minimum thresholds below which the player has to have some highly unusual characteristics to overcome a speed deficiency. I think you have to look long and hard before endorsing the potential of a 4.60 WR that's not a tough-as-nails possession type in the right scheme. Anything better than 4.50 in a WR gets into diminishing returns territory.

While it's nice to have a guy with blazing speed to stretch the field, if he does not have the other goods then he's more decoy than weapon.
 

Curly Calhoun

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I'd say speed is grossly overrated when it is looked at to the exclusion of the many other factors that go into being a good football player, not just WRs.

But there are some minimum thresholds below which the player has to have some highly unusual characteristics to overcome a speed deficiency. I think you have to look long and hard before endorsing the potential of a 4.60 WR that's not a tough-as-nails possession type in the right scheme. Anything better than 4.50 in a WR gets into diminishing returns territory.

While it's nice to have a guy with blazing speed to stretch the field, if he does not have the other goods then he's more decoy than weapon.



I seem to remember us drafting a "speed guy" in David Clowney a few years back......he never made it here but hung on with a bad Jets tam for a little while.....The 'slow' guy we drafted that same year was James Jones, I believe.

Speed is nice, but it isn't everything.
 

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come on now. speed can force defensess to do things. if your goal is to draft a solid quality AVERAGE wr. then go ahead. but in my book, if he isnt huge, he better be blazing quick. i prefer both... if janis wasnt a stud. we wouldnt have let that johnson kid leave and end up in mn. abbredarius too he is a very good wr. big fan. but janis has a gear that makes you cringe.and he is a baller. game on.
 
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I seem to remember us drafting a "speed guy" in David Clowney a few years back......he never made it here but hung on with a bad Jets tam for a little while.....The 'slow' guy we drafted that same year was James Jones, I believe.

Speed is nice, but it isn't everything.
From rotoworld.com:

Driver: 4.45
Jennings: 4.42
Jones: 4.54
Nelson: 4.51
Cobb: 4.46
Boykin: 4.57
Adams: 4.51

Yeah, Jones was the slow guy among the recent starters, Boykin excepted, by a couple of ticks. He always struck me as being less than quick off the line but he had a very quick 2nd. and 3rd. gear that caught CBs by surprise.

Nelson looks faster than 4.51 because he has a 5th. gear that does not show up in the 40 yd. times...long strider/long speed that accounts for him never getting caught from behind. If they ran 100 yd. dashes at the Combine, I think Nelson's number would surprise some people.

Adams looks like a true 4.51 lacking Nelson's 5th. gear.

Cobb looks like a true 4.46...he's very quick through the first 3 gears which you see on punt returns or when running to the edge out of the backfield. He's still quick in 4th., but tops out sooner than Nelson.

Similar 40 times don't even necessarily get you the same type of runner among WRs. And that's just straight line speed. Then there's quickness out of breaks and double moves.

Other recent speedier WRs who didn't crack the roster: Charles Johnson at 4.39 and Myles White at 4.42. I'm sure there were others that don't immediately come to mind. Johnson will probably be the #2 or #3 for Minnesota depending on who they draft; White is still with the Packers after being on PS last season. In fact, I would not rule out White in the competition for the #4 and #5 spots. Clowney was a 4.36 guy. He bounced around for 5+ years, often not on a roster, and ended his career with 22 catches.
 
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HardRightEdge

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come on now. speed can force defensess to do things. if your goal is to draft a solid quality AVERAGE wr. then go ahead. but in my book, if he isnt huge, he better be blazing quick. i prefer both... if janis wasnt a stud. we wouldnt have let that johnson kid leave and end up in mn. abbredarius too he is a very good wr. big fan. but janis has a gear that makes you cringe.and he is a baller. game on.
Quick and fast are different things. Cobb is neither big nor blazing fast, but he's certainly quick, and quick does not necessarily show up in a 40 time.

I welcome Charles Johnson as the Vikings #2. I hope they don't go high in the draft for a WR.
 

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charles johnson beat jennings. and true, quickness and speed are different. but translate to the same in my head. starting faster rather than finishing faster. point a to point b in same amount of time. cobbs quickness is impressive. janis has impressive speed imo.
 

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come on now. speed can force defensess to do things. if your goal is to draft a solid quality AVERAGE wr. then go ahead. but in my book, if he isnt huge, he better be blazing quick. i prefer both... if janis wasnt a stud. we wouldnt have let that johnson kid leave and end up in mn. abbredarius too he is a very good wr. big fan. but janis has a gear that makes you cringe.and he is a baller. game on.

Johnson if im not mistaken was signed off the PS 2 years ago by the browns, cut by the browns and then picked up by the Vikings. Janis had/has no bearing on him not being a Packer. Janis hadnt even been drafted yet when he was signed off the practice squad by the Browns
 
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ivo610

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players have run 4.7s and have gone on to torch the league. I'll take a crisp route runner over a 4.3 speed guy any day.
 
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players have run 4.7s and have gone on to torch the league. I'll take a crisp route runner over a 4.3 speed guy any day.

A receiver doesn´t have to run a 4.3 to be productive in the NFL but a 4.7 is a bit too slow for today´s game.

While Jerry Rice only ran a 4.71 40 he played during a different era. Since 2003, only five out of 129 receivers who ran the 40 in 4.6-or-slower have recorded a 1,000 receiving yards season.
 
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players have run 4.7s and have gone on to torch the league. I'll take a crisp route runner over a 4.3 speed guy any day.
Care to name a couple of those 4.7 WRs that "torched the league"?

If you have to dig deep for legendary slow receivers like Biletnikoff or Largent, I'd observe (1) the speed of the game has increased since those guys played and (2) even in their own times they were exceptions that proved the rule.

Successful 4.7 WRs are rare in the game today. The only such player that I can think of off hand is the guy I alluded to earlier as a tough-as-nails possession receiver...Anquan Boldin...who ran 4.71 at the Combine and looks about that fast on the field. But he just gets open, has hands, and takes on defenders. Again, he's an exception that proves the rule.

Now, would I rather have a 4.25 Hayward-Bay with bad hands and little utility beyond vertical routes that don't fool anybody or the 4.71 Boldin? The obvious answer is Boldin. But that's with 20/20 hindsight.

When projecting college players, it is nearly impossible to look at a 4.7 guy and say he'll have a Boldin-type career because so few have ever materialized.
 
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HardRightEdge

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A receiver doesn´t have to run a 4.3 to be productive in the NFL but a 4.7 is a bit too slow for today´s game.

While Jerry Rice only ran a 4.71 40 he played during a different era. Since 2003, only five out of 129 receivers who ran the 40 in 4.6-or-slower have recorded a 1,000 receiving yards season.
I have no doubt Rice would be an outstanding receiver in today's game. But as your stat's indicate, Rice is one of the uncommon exceptions.

Curious...can you name the 5?

I suspect Fitzgerald is on the list, perhaps at 4.63. But he turned around and ran 4.47/4.51 at his pro day.
 
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paulska

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Care to name a couple of those 4.7 WRs that "torched the league"?

If you have to dig deep for legendary slow receivers like Biletnikoff or Largent, I'd observe (1) the speed of the game has increased since those guys played and (2) even in their own times they were exceptions that proved the rule.

Successful 4.7 WRs are rare in the game today. The only such player that I can think of off hand is the guy I alluded to earlier as a tough-as-nails possession receiver...Anquan Boldin...who ran 4.71 at the Combine and looks about that fast on the field. But he just gets open, has hands, and takes on defenders. Again, he's an exception that proves the rule.

Now, would I rather have a 4.25 Hayward-Bay with bad hands and little utility beyond vertical routes that don't fool anybody or the 4.71 Boldin? The obvious answer is Boldin. But that's with 20/20 hindsight.

When projecting college players, it is nearly impossible to look at a 4.7 guy and say he'll have a Boldin-type career because so few have ever materialized.

There are a few guys that no one accused of being burners who were fantastic move the chains guys- Wayne Chrebet and Hines Ward come to mind as exemplars of that type of player. To me Boldin and Ward are similar types of receivers. That said, I think they both played for coaches that schemed for theme to excel in a niche.

Larry Fitz was a generational talent. He might be slow now, but he was a force of nature for several years without question.

As a hockey fan, this conversation reminds me a lot of how players at the amateur level who have been elite point producers project to the pros as role players. Some of them adapt their game to excel with additional defensive and positional responsibilities, understanding that they don't have the top end skill to supplant elite pro starters on their respective teams. Others never make that leap and remain one dimensional.

Likewise, I think it takes a wise and unique player who puts up big production in college to adopt a different role in the NFL. Both Ward and Boldin were college QB's, so I don't know that becoming a slot/chain mover/possession type receiver represented the "downgrade" that this type of role/responsibility within a pro offense might represent to someone who is acclimated to being option 1 or 1A for their college team as a longtime receiver.

One thing I really like about our WR corps is that we coach them to learn all the positions. Our best receivers know how to get production out of each spot they line up in. Some other receivers are one trick ponies. If I had to bet, I'd say that one thing that's high on any list of criteria for WR in the Packers's war room is ability to learn and adaptability rating at least on par with raw tools and previous production.

All that to say, we seem to have good success coaching guys up. Nelson, Cobb, Jennings, Jones- they were all productive college players with good physical and mental tools, but they honed their skills to become top flight WR's. It makes me excited to think about what's possible with time, patience and execution with guys like Janis and Abbrederis who both have a great set of respective tools/attributes. The luxury we have is that we're not in the wasteland of the post Javon Walker era where we have one really good option and a host of third rate ones. Not having to put up big production really allows our developmental types to come along at a pace other teams simply can't afford.
 
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HardRightEdge

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There are a few guys that no one accused of being burners who were fantastic move the chains guys- Wayne Chrebet and Hines Ward come to mind as exemplars of that type of player. To me Boldin and Ward are similar types of receivers. That said, I think they both played for coaches that schemed for theme to excel in a niche.
Hines Ward ran 4.55, Chrebet 4.53. I think this illustrates a key point. Guys who are perceived as "slow" running in the mid-4.5's illustrates how rare it is for a 4.7 guy to see the field.
 
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Johnson if im not mistaken was signed off the PS 2 years ago by the browns, cut by the browns and then picked up by the Vikings. Janis had/has no bearing on him not being a Packer. Janis hadnt even been drafted yet when he was signed off the practice squad by the Browns
Johnson was a 7th round pick by GB, and one I thought had great potential. Another D2 guy like Janis. And seems to be the #2 WR ahead of Patterson, now that mike wallace was signed...
 

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Once again, I'm not saying Janis won't make it in the NFL. I don't understand fans appointing him a budding star already though. While he showed some promise in the preseason there's a reason he wasn't able to move past a terrible Boykin on the depth chart.
I would still take Janis over Charles Johnson. who is a proven NFL WR now.
 

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