2020 MVP Race

[PackAttack12]

*before I get rolling, please leave the "I don't care about the MVP race" or "I'd rather have a Super Bowl than an MVP award" comments elsewhere.*

It's currently a two man race for the 2020 MVP award. And, in my humble opinion, our guy is the front runner.

Lets dive in:

Aaron Rodgers:

69% completions
3,395 yards
36 touchdowns
4 interceptions
8.2 yards/attempt
118.5 passer rating
84.6 QBR
9-3 team record (currently the 2 seed)

Patrick Mahomes:

68.3% completions
3,815 yards
31 touchdowns
2 interceptions
8.2 yards/attempt
113.8 rating
85.7 QBR
11-1 team record (currently the 2 seed)

The numbers are remarkably similar. Differences are the significant difference in touchdown passes in favor of Rodgers, and significant difference in yards for Mahomes.

Both quarterbacks are close to, or are, dead even in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and QBR. Rodgers also holds a considerable lead in passer rating, which could obviously change quickly.

Again, I think Rodgers is the front runner simply due to the improvement from last year. I think it's a bigger story than Mahomes, who just came off of a Super Bowl MVP journey. I also think Rodgers has done more with less. Mahomes clearly has the better arsenal of weapons when you consider everything. Many think Tyreek Hill could be the best wideout in the NFL right now, although I feel like Davante is playing like the best in the league. But the difference that Travis Kelce makes is immeasurable. And I feel like they have better supporting options than that of the Packers.

Unless something truly dramatic changes, it'll be one of these two guys. Remarkable though that Rodgers has competed on a level to be mentioned in the same breath as Mahomes after many left Rodgers for dead before the start of this season.

 

[Fredrik87]

Rodgers should be the clear front runner but a lot people seem to be biased towards Mahomes despite Rodgers playing better.

The Stats for Mahomes should honestly be a lot worse in the INT category he's had a unbelievable amount dropped or negated by penalty I think if defenders playing him start hanging onto those balls maybe we could see Rodgers widen the gap between them a bit.

 

[bigbubbatd]

Rodgers numbers are even more impressive when you factor in the discrepancy I pass catching talents between GB and KC. Then factor in Adams missing time and lazard missing time.

 

[tynimiller]

I wish they announced the MVP the days prior to our first playoff game and it is Mahomes....I love when Rodgers can thrown another log or two on the fire.

 

[Hans Solo]

One should also note that Rodgers had 48 less in total attempts

 

[PackAttack12]

One should also note that Rodgers had 48 less in total attempts

True, that pretty much negates the total yards difference. Good point.

 

[Hans Solo]

True, that pretty much negates the total yards difference. Good point.

Just a little bit of math right here (in real life, of course, everything can happen):

Let's assume Rodgers would be equal with Mahomes in passing attempts, then you have 48 more attempts of which 68% are completions.
That's 32 catches. With an average of yards per attempt of 8.2 you get 267 of total yards. Which would get Aaron a total of 3662 yards by now.

 

[Krabs]

Rodgers will not win the MVP this year no matter what he does. They will give it to Russel Wilson or Patrick Mahomes. This is too political of a season. I will leave it at that.

 

[tynimiller]

To be fair Mahomes has nearly 200 additional rushing yards than Rodgers.

 

[jon]

MVP used to be most valuable player; now it is BQB, best quarterback. It doesn't mean as much to me anymore. Granted, QBs win almost all of the time, but these nobody even considers players like Derrick Henry, Aaron Donald, ....

 

[tynimiller]

It has NEVER been much other than a RB or QB award...

I mean you have to go back to 1986 to see a non RB/QB which was Lawrence Taylor ROLB

82' - K Mark Moseley
71' - DT Alan Page

The only other positions is arguably just another RB, but is listed as FB and that is the 3 Jim Browns and one Jim Taylor

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

Rodgers will not win the MVP this year no matter what he does. They will give it to Russel Wilson or Patrick Mahomes. This is too political of a season. I will leave it at that.

Totally agree and it's not only a season of political nature, it's the way the NFL operates.

 

[Mondio]

MVP used to be most valuable player; now it is BQB, best quarterback. It doesn't mean as much to me anymore. Granted, QBs win almost all of the time, but these nobody even considers players like Derrick Henry, Aaron Donald, ....

i could see Henry, they aren't much of a team without him. They'll win some and lose some instead of being in contention for top of the AFC. Donald is good, but unless a DL at any position is a stud against the run and getting 20+ sacks and 5-10 turnovers himself they just don't affect the game enough throughout a season. Donald is awesome, but it's too hard to generate stats. QB's are at an unfair advantage because they get the ball every play and just naturally have a greater influence than any other position on the field. at least a greater opportunity to be one.

 

[Wi. Mike now in Florida]

QB's are at an unfair advantage because they get the ball every play and just naturally have a greater influence than any other position on the field. at least a greater opportunity to be one.

I never looked at it this way......Good Point

 

[Fredrik87]

So I was just looking at some advanced stats PFR has Rodgers having 7% off his passes dropped it's crazy how good his numbers could be if he didn't have so many dropped passes especially considering how many I have witnessed to be way down field

 

[tynimiller]

So I was just looking at some advanced stats PFR has Rodgers having 7% off his passes dropped it's crazy how good his numbers could be if he didn't have so many dropped passes especially considering how many I have witnessed to be way down field

What is the league average?

 

[pacmaniac]

It will be close, last 4 games will decide it. I actually saw an article a couple weeks ago saying the Packers have the best wide receiving corps in the league. Don't know what they've been watching.

 

[tynimiller]

It will be close, last 4 games will decide it. I actually saw an article a couple weeks ago saying the Packers have the best wide receiving corps in the league. Don't know what they've been watching.

Yikes....love to see what analytics or data they used to drive that opinion???

I mean I am obviously not in the camp that we are autrocious and all should be cut like some...but the best? I mean sure give us a LEGIT #2 and I think you could make the argument because we have:

-Arguably the best WR in the game (Adams)
-Arguably the best pass catching tandem in the game out of the backfield (Jones/Williams)
-A TE1 having a BREAK OUT year

But without a BIG TE2 or a legit WR2 not a soul without bias or ignorance would argue we have the best receivers.

 

[gbgary]

it's a two man race with rodgers nipping at mahomes heels. the press gives mahomes the hype. rodgers will run away with it if they get back to the O efficiency of the of the first month.

 

[Do7]

Rodgers will not win the MVP this year no matter what he does. They will give it to Russel Wilson or Patrick Mahomes. This is too political of a season. I will leave it at that.

As of last week, the ship for Wilson winning MVP has long sailed. It's between Rodgers and Mahomes now.

 

[Krabs]

As of last week, the ship for Wilson winning MVP has long sailed. It's between Rodgers and Mahomes now.

Point is, it won't be Rodgers.

 

[Fredrik87]

What is the league average?

so I haven't calculated this but it looks to be around a touch less then 5%.

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Important to note these are also PFR's numbers and they tend to be lenient to the WR's in the case of drops.

 

[swhitset]

so I haven't calculated this but it looks to be around a touch less then 5%.

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Important to note these are also PFR's numbers and they tend to be lenient to the WR's in the case of drops.

Interesting that Rodgers is literally at the top. (Or bottom depending on your perspective).

 

[GreenNGold_81]

I think Rodgers is the front runner, with an easier remaining schedule. If you had to pick one now, based on trends in the past, I think he's the man. He just has to keep this up and it's his to lose.

 

[PackAttack12]

I think Rodgers is the front runner, with an easier remaining schedule. If you had to pick one now, based on trends in the past, I think he's the man. He just has to keep this up and it's his to lose.

I think the touchdown advantage is a big factor. Rodgers is at 36 and would need 3.5 per game to reach 50. Extremely doable. Mahomes would need 4.75 per game to reach 50. More difficult for Mahomes to get there.