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We dont have as much money as you think

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by longtimefan, Mar 13, 2014.

  1. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    In my draft evaluation I label picks purely as a success or failure. I think that we've gone through this in years past. My official definition is: "The terms "Success" and "Fail" refer to whether the draft pick was a successful evaluation of a player's talent. It takes neither draft position nor salary into account to determine success. In essence, did the player succeed for Green Bay as a starter, quality backup, or valuable role player?"

    Taking TT's first draft as an example, I have the players ranked as such:

    R1: Aaron Rodgers - Success (no brainer)
    R2: Nick Collins - Success
    R2: Terrence Murphy - Fail
    R4: Brady Popinga - Success
    R4: Marviel Underwood - Fail
    R5: Junius Coston - Fail
    R6: Craig Bragg - Fail
    R6: Mike Montgomery - Success
    R7: Kurt Campbell - Fail
    R7: William Whitticker

    Murphy was actually a good pick but never was able to really play due to the neck injury he suffered. Popinga was never great by any stretch, but he was a starter and situational LB for several years.

    I could rank players on scale like some people, but it's just as easy to argue against those grades. It's all subjective. I'd like to think that no matter you methodology, as long as one is consistent you will get consistent results across the history of our GMs.

    Below is a sample of the past 15 years (if it's readable on here). I'm sure people will have issues with some of it. To each their own:
    upload_2014-3-15_14-28-48.png
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. NelsonsLongCatch

    NelsonsLongCatch Cheesehead

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    That's not true. The Bears were a Julius Peppers away from the Super Bowl. Evidenced by the fact they MADE THE NFC CHAMPIONSHIP the year he was signed. If Cutler doesn't sit out the second half "injured", the Bears might have made the Super Bowl instead of the Packers.

    The Bears went from 7-9 in 2009 to 11-5 and the NFC Championship Game in 2010. If we're ignoring reality, then the Bears were not a Julius Peppers away from the Super Bowl.
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2014
  3. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    I strongly agree with this philosophy. Unless Ted sees a guy that is top 10 on his board, I think he should trade back as well. Where I diagree with you AM is that Ted can get better than picks 41,73 for pick 21. I am expecting 2 trades back from 21, ending up with our first pick between 36-42. I think we'll have six top 100 picks.
     
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  4. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    Back to the title of this thread. The pressgazette has an article on the Packers’ cap situation after “signing seven players and tendering one” RFA is about $14M under the cap. http://www.greenbaypressgazette.com...ers-about-14M-under-salary-cap?nclick_check=1

    They have to sign their rookie class – the article says they’ll likely spend between $4-$6M but “as little as one-third of that probably will count against the cap”. They’ll probably sign a couple more FAs – their own most likely. And they always keep a reserve for the season. Then how will they structure the extensions for Nelson and Cobb?
     
  5. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    I discussed about that with Dougherty on Twitter, it seems like he doesn't completely understand how that works.

    All guys the Packers will draft in May will be allowed to count $4.6 million vs. the cap in 2014. While he's right they will only count a portion of that during the offseason when probably only the first two picks will be in top 51 contracts they will count fully against the cap during the season. So if the Packers will keep all of their draft picks that will be pretty close to the $4.6 million as there 's a wage scale in place.

    Compensatory picks and trades will influence these numbers though.
     
  6. Luca

    Luca Cheesehead

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    You are right, but if you keep all your draft picks, some of those guys will probably replace more expensive veterans. Essentially the cap hit of the final 53 can't be higher than the cap hit of the top 53. That would add only $840.000 to the cap.

    So 16.1 million (source: overthecap) - 2 million for the rookies - 840K for player 52 and 53 : means that we will have at least 13.3 million cap space

    By the way, it would be smart to keep some rollover cap, since we have only 21.6 million cap space for 2015 (obviously that is without Cobb, Nelson and Bulaga, and with Peppers).
     
  7. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    All players on the team during the season count toward the cap, that includes players on IR, PUP and on the practice squad.

    Even if the rookies replace some more expensive veterans those guys getting cut will count towards the cap in dead money.
     
  8. Luca

    Luca Cheesehead

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    El Guapo inspired me to make a graph with Pro football Reference's Career Approximate Value versus draft position for all Ted Thompson's draft picks. Career Approximate Value is based on starts, snaps, stats and pro bowls. Athough it has some flaws, it seems to like the most objective measure to test this his hypothesis.

    upload_2014-3-24_20-47-24.png

    It seems that his earlier picks are more successful than his late round picks. It also seems that Ted is slightly more successful in the first round than in the second round (as you would expect). The highest dot obviously is Aaron Rodgers.

    I adjusted the graph also for years played in the league (so that rookies can be taken into account):

    upload_2014-3-24_20-50-36.png

    Again, first rounders are slightly more successful than second rounders (note 9 first rounders vs 13 second rounders).
    The high scores are Rodgers, Matthews and Lacy.

    So it seems that Ted is more succesfull in the first round than the second round, although by a small margin. So the general rule of thump that higher draft picks are on average more successful also holds for Ted.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2
  9. SoonerPack

    SoonerPack Cheesehead

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    The biggest reason I love and agree with the way TT runs this team can be summed up in one word: CONSISTENCY.
    Don't get me wrong, seeing all these other teams make these "big splash" moves get me riled up and sometimes wishing we were the ones doing the splashing. The reason I always come to my senses is because I look at the teams making all of these moves and typically speaking they never end up in the big game come seasons end. The draft and develop method works for so many reasons and has and will continue to keep us near the upper end of the league for years to come. I guess what I am saying is that I am grateful that every year we as Packer fans don't have to hope and pray that we pull some stud of the FA wire to give us a shot. There are some times when I wish we would have got this guy or that guy but beggers can't be choosers, right? When you step back and look at the big picture you can see how the TT system keeps us relevant year in year out and can be summed up in one word...consistent. GPG!
     
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  10. Luca

    Luca Cheesehead

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    You are right! Didn't think about that!

    When I'am correct, those guys only count during the weeks they are on the roster. So if we IR a guy in week ten, his replacement will count for 7/17th (= $170.000) versus the cap right?
     
  11. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    That's correct.
     
  12. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    I think we are in good shape financially for the future. I counted up approximately $135 million in signing bonus commitments going out through 2019 (6 seasons). Rodgers, Matthews & now Shields being the only ones over 10 million left to cap. I count 20 players with 1m or more in bonus money to be capped. With significant cap jump coming again next year which will cause salary and bonus jumps throughout the league in the next two years, it looks to me like we are pretty well positioned for the future.
     
  13. Ace

    Ace Cheesehead

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    I assume you aren't counting Jordy and Randall resigns in this post. It's going to get tight past 2015. Not saying they are going to be in trouble but its going to get tight.
     
  14. PikeBadger

    PikeBadger Cheesehead

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    I think we are in good shape financially for the future. I counted up approximately $135 million in signing bonus commitments going out through 2019 (6 seasons). Rodgers, Matthews & now Shields being the only ones over 10 million left to cap. I count 20 players with 1m or more in bonus money to be capped. With significant cap jump coming again next year which will cause salary and bonus jumps throughout the league in the next two years, it looks to me like we are pretty well positioned for the future.
    Correct. I didn't count Nelson or Cobb because I have no idea what their next contract will look like. I didn't guess very well with Shields, I guessed we'd offer 34M for 4 years, with 15M guaranteed.
     

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