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unrealistic expectations

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by ivo610, Jan 12, 2014.

  1. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Teddy is so great he didn't have a viable backup qb on the roster and lucked out Flynn got released when he did or the playoff argument would be moot. Heck if you wanna get technical it took him forever to add a rb worth a dam to take pressure off Rodgers. Now all he has to do is find another pass rusher to help out Matthews which we have been waiting for for over three years now.
     
  2. ThxJackVainisi

    ThxJackVainisi Lifelong Packers Fanatic

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    I’ll bet like most of us he knows no method always work. And again, what if the Packers would have had an average season regarding injuries? How far away would that team have been vs. the 49ers, for example?
    “no experience necessary” contradicts the “develop” part of Thompson’s method, doesn’t it? And you didn’t mean to type undrafted rookies need not apply, did you? The Packers are among the most welcoming of teams regarding undrafted rookies.

    Look I’m in favor of Thompson acquiring a UFA safety because the only candidate to pair with Burnett IMO is Richardson if they don’t switch Hyde to S. And even if they do, neither is a sure thing there so I would like the “insurance” of a mid-priced UFA. Someone Richardson, perhaps Hyde and any other safety would have to be good enough to replace to earn snaps. And if they succeeded in finding a good UFA safety, look at the depth they’d have. But with all the free agents the Packers have coming up IMO it’s not likely Thompson will sign even a mid-range UFA.

    So what about the develop part of Thompson’s method? On the DL Datone Jones and Jerel Worthy have a decent chance of improving to the point of significant contributions. Remember Jones was looking very good early in TC before he got hurt. And we’ll see if Worthy can rush the passer in the sub packages. Josh Boyd just needs to continue improving and I hope he’s counted on to replace Raji. And the 2012 fourth rounder Mike Daniels going into his third year is no longer a question mark, is he?

    At LB Nick Perry is going into his third year but really his second if you count just experience. Andy Mulumba looks like he’s got some natural talent and he’s another undrafted rookie who could contribute significantly. Nate Palmer and Sam Barrington are headed into their second seasons and Mike Neal, if he returns will have a season of experience at OLB under his belt.

    In the secondary, Micah Hyde and Chris Banjo will be going into their second seasons in the system. Hyde has already proven he’s a player, the only question is where he’ll play. Casey Hayward will be going into his second season, experience wise. All he has to do is be healthy. Sean Richardson gained some valuable experience this season and has the physical attributes needed. James Nixon also has the physical attributes to play cover corner, he has to stay healthy enough to see if he has the instincts for it. And it’s do or die time for Davon House, we’ve seen flashes; he has to be consistent.

    Obviously all those mentioned won’t work out. But all will have more experience in the system and all are young enough to improve physically and mentally, with experience in the system. If you had asked me before this season about Jarrett Boykin I would have said he has potential but he shouldn’t be counted upon. He made a huge leap in his season. If a few of those above do the same and Matthews stays healthy, the Packers aren’t that far away.
     
  3. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    This is why you anti TTs are missing the big picture. It's not just trading a couple picks, it's so much more than that (wait why not bring up Trent Richardson? Oh right, terrible trade). You only mention what the trade value is, not the value of position, the cost of the contract, or how they fit on the team. The nfl has this thing called a cap... Paying boldin $6 mil? I'll pass. Our offense is fine without Blount. Lynch argument has been hammered to death.
     
  4. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    It´s true we don´t need any of the guys mentioned above. But getting a safety and an ILB for a reasonable price should be a priority this offseason.
     
  5. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Yet when one is suggested it's someone who will command $6-7 mil a season.
     
  6. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Don´t think Chris D. Clemons would ask for that kind of money.
     
  7. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    I could swing that. That's more what I want to see. Names and expected salaries of desired guys.
     
  8. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    Every single one of them! My God, this is not that hard to understand! I'm not saying some FA deals may not have been worth it. I AM saying that ALL FA deals take away from CAP money. PERIOD.

    At the very least, you should attempt to understand the logic behind Thompson's madness. You don't have to agree with it and you can choose to ignore that Ted got us a Super Bowl just THREE years ago, but at least you should attempt to understand his approach. Cuz.... by your line of questioning... you really don't.

    Ted Thompson saves the Packers CAP space by re-upping our own players. It's not hard to understand. The closer to the end of a contract you get, the more money it costs teams. Now, we can debate who he's extended and the decisions he's made, some proved good and some not, but the fact is, it is prudent to re-up rather than delay it.

    The Seahags, instead of re-upping a few of their key players, went and signed several free agents. Not just this year, but several over the course of a few years now. I'll use one small example. Michael Bennett only cost them 5 million to get under contract for one year. That's not much at all but the fact is, that's just another 5 million they can't use towards a signing bonus to get somebody extended. THAT is how teams get in trouble and THAT is why some teams are crappy for several years in a row (like 27 teams below the Packers were the past 10 years) even if they have a decent run of a few years like the Searags and Niners.

    This is the most important point IMO, that 5 million in "contract" to Bennett is basically worth TWICE that in signing bonus to a player that might have two years left on his contract! So, instead of using that 5 million towards a signing bonus to re-up a key player, they contract for what amounts to a one year mercenary contract for Michael Bennett! Season ends... Michael Bennett and that 5 million is gone forever, they need to fill that hole Bennett left and an opportunity to re-up a player is lost! Compounding the issue is that they need to start planning for a giant pay-day for Wilson! NIGHT-MARE

    Below is a link to a complete rundown of Seattle's 2014 CAP issues. The authors last line tells all that needs to be said. "The Seahawks simply lack the cap flexibility to avoid major changes to the roster in the coming offseason."

    I would not trade this roster and CAP situation for the Packers in a million years!

    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/...ahead-for-the-seattle-seahawks-2014-offseason
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2014
  9. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    And yet, if they win the Super Bowl (either the Seahawks or 49ers) it will be worth it. Would you rather win the NFC North every year and get bounced from the playoffs in the first two rounds, or win a title followed by a poor year clearing cap space? I'll take the Super Bowl every time. You can't always plan for the future, Rodgers has maybe another 7 years where he will be an elite QB in Green Bay weather. At some point you have to start planning to put all your eggs in the basket.
     
  10. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    Do you realize that re-signing your own
    players counts against the cap as well?? After reading your posts I highly doubt that by now.

    Extending your players early has some risks as well, same as acquiring other teams free agents. Sometimed it works out (Nelson), sometimes it doesn't (Burnett)
     
  11. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    I hate that this team is so close yet so far. We need a few pieces to put us over the top...not a full roster overhaul. If we can add a linebacker who can get to the Qb besides Matthews and a run plugger on the d-linethe improvement of this defense would be like night and day. Thats where our beloved TT comes to mind...there will be some solid FA this year and bringing in two guys won't cripple the cap i promise. The only big money he needs to spend is on Sam Shields.
     
  12. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Not sure I agree with all the points in that article. The only free agents that will really hurt would be Bennett, McDonald and McDaniel (though they should be able to resign McDonald since he's getting up there in age). Harvin should be able to exceed Tate'e production at WR and at corner, Maxwell only played eight games (none since week 10) and Thurmond is their slot corner (important but not back breaking if they lose him).

    The article also doesn't look at how players cap number can be lowered by extending their deals and they gloss over the cap savings from cutting Rice (a cursory mention with no real emphasis that it will free up $7.3m!). You could free up $1m plus by extending Avril at around $8m per year. If they freed up additional money by cutting Clemons (who fell off a cliff last year) they should easily be able to use the combined $16m to sign who they need to.
     
  13. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Then name them and name the salary they should offer along with years.
     
  14. JacobInFlorida

    JacobInFlorida Cheesehead

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    And what if putting all your eggs in one year basket fails? Then you're looking at a couple years rebuild just to get back. We are close. With some health we're going to be right there every single year with Rodgers. I think we stand a much better chance of winning Super Bowls than going all in on 1 or 2 years.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  15. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    Would I rather win a title and stay in contention every year or roll the dice to win a title and then be in cap hell? Uhhhh
     
  16. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    BINGO... these people... these Ted critics just DO NOT get it! We are in fact "so close" because of the very fact that Thompson has managed the roster like he has! I'm not talking only about the players, but the CAP and contracts! There is no two ways about it, the Seahags and 49ers rosters are about to be turned upside down the next few years because of the way they signed and rostered the past few years. It's one "opinion" to want to "go for it" and go "all in" to win it one year... that's fine... but you CAN NOT do that and be in the chase every year. Can't happen.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  17. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    At last, I agree with you on something. I would sign several big FAs if it would guarantee a SB victory. But there are no guarantees in the NFL. One or two key injuries and your season is in doubt and your next few years are gone. Too big of a risk. Not sure where I posted the 'Amish Math' but I believe the biggest of FA splashes would only boost our chances to win the SB only 2%ish - and decrease the next few years by 25%.

    You are much better off not signing the big FA and keep in the 'elite team' tier for several years rather than being thee top team for one season (they rarely win anyway).
     
    Last edited: Jan 15, 2014
  18. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    AMEN! ...and this idea that signing a big name FA only sets you back ONE season is horsehockey! These decisions impact teams for years.

    Ted doesn't say much but I heard Jason Wilde quote him as saying something like "My entire approach is to take as many swings at the plate as we can". ... meaning... at least the Packers are up at the plate in the playoffs year after year, unlike all of these teams that don't manage their rosters well and don't even make it or go a few times every ten years!
     
  19. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Well one is via the Draft. Trade up and take Clowney who immediately boost your pass rush and paired with a healthy Matthews the tandem could wreck havok for years to come.

    Clowney:Realistic Salary imo APY: $4,086,751 spread over a four year rookie contract period.

    Franchise Tag Sam Shields: Give him about $8.50 million

    Dante Whitner: 3yr contract 4.5 a yr

    All i'm looking for is a good safety and another pass rusher. I've chosen to adress pass rusher via draft. These moves don't cripple the cap and leave us with options to potentially bring back James Jones.
     
  20. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    To get Clowney for sure TT would have to get the first overall pick, that would cost at least our next three first rounders.

    There's no chance TT would do that and he shouldn't.
     
  21. JacobInFlorida

    JacobInFlorida Cheesehead

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    And what do you think we'd have to give up to get clowney? He's a freak but nowhere near a sure thing. Theres been a lot of question over his motivation. You don't make it in the NFL on talent alone. It'd be a huge risk to trade away a ransom to get Clowney.

    Franchise Shields and IMO you say goodbye to him after next year. Already not sure how bad he wants to be in GB.

    Whitner is overrated and even at 4.5 a year you're overpaying and I'm not sure you'd even get him for that.
     
  22. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Why does it have to be all or nothing? I'm not saying that you go out and sign everyone and ruin next year's cap. But if there's a guy or two out there that you think can help the team NOW then go sign them. Yeah, it might make for some difficult decisions in a couple years but if the team is better NOW and you're so close to the Super Bowl, then do it. This is the NFL, weird things happen. You think anyone saw Finley or Collins getting their injuries? You play for today because there is no assurance that your window is actually open for another 5-7 years.
     
  23. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    Most people haven't been advocating a big name signing. Signing a free agent safety for instance, at around $4-5m per season isn't going to destroy the Packers' future.
     
  24. JacobInFlorida

    JacobInFlorida Cheesehead

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    most people have been advocating signing a LB, S and DL in free agency at the modest figures you listed. If you did all that there's no guarantee they're worth that much more than what we have. 3 guys at that money would make it almost impossible to sign Shields and have enough left over to sign Nelson and Cobb next year.

    I think you can count on one modest free agent on defense this offseason, likely at safety.
     
  25. Sunshinepacker

    Sunshinepacker Cheesehead

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    I'd be perfectly happy if the Packers signed Spikes and Clemons this offseason and it cost us $8m per year combined. Not too expensive and big upgrades over our current guys at those spots. Now, I don't think we'll sign a linebacker since Thompson just gave Jones that new contract.
     

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