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unrealistic expectations

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by ivo610, Jan 12, 2014.

  1. ivo610

    ivo610 Cheesehead

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    uh huh. sure. Wanna buy a bridge?
     
  2. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    Something to consider when analyzing what kind of job TT has done:

    That the Saints already are projected to be about $17 million over next year’s cap only adds to the potential headaches here. Factor in a franchise tag, even near the 2013 TE price of approximately $6 million, and the Saints’ wallet will be even more overstuffed.



    Meanwhile, as always, the Packers have cap space - even after signing the likes of Clay and Rodgers - to resign Shields, EDS, etc. Will we have enough leftover to sign other FA's? Probably not. But, we also don't need to have a fire-sale and cut a bunch of players.

    TT may be cheap. But he doesn't mortgage the teams future cap for a single year. I think that's wise and important for long term success. How he manages the cap space in signing players is a different debate - i.e. propensity to sign his own players (Hawk, B. Jones, Burnett) rather than looking elsewhere.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  3. adambr2

    adambr2 Cheesehead

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    Very much agree on both points. Great restraint in avoiding putting himself in cap hell with other teams' FA's. Also may tend to overrate and overpay his defensive players particularly in recent years when cheaper FA vets may be a better option.

    I had no idea the Saints were in that bad of shape. They'll have to find a way to keep Graham somehow, won't they?
     
  4. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    Signing guys like Bernard Pollard, Everson Griffen, Vincent Rey don't mortgage any future.
    Giving long term expensive deals to draft & devloping guys like Morgan Burnett, Brad Jones, and BJ Raji can do that though.

    The only megasuperstar free agent blockbuster additions I can remember leading to a Super Bowl were Reggie White and Drew Brees.

    But mid-range and guys like Keith Jackson, Sean Jones, Santana Dotson, Eugene Robinson, can help a team a lot more than a 1st round pick like Perry or Datone or Harrell can. Remember we got fans here who don't even expect a 1st rounder to have any immediate impact.
     
  5. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Holy CRAP! With 40+ years of sucking under their belt, when the Lions take off they are going to REALLY TAKE OFF!

    ;)
     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  6. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Amish math.

    There are perhaps 6 teams each season with a 50% aggregate chance of winning the SB. Then there about 12 teams that are going to have an aggregate 45% chance. The bottom 14 teams have about 5% amongst them. This last season I would put it like this:

    Seattle 10%
    49ers 9%
    Broncos 9%
    Packers 8%
    Texans 8%
    Patriots 7%
    Colts 7%

    Okay - we were wrong about the Texans - but the Chiefs emerged to take their place early. But this will support a point I will make later.

    Now, signing a big FA, like Byrd this season will fill a need and help our odds to win the SB. Having him, say he plays very well, our defense improves and now our odds shoot up to 10% and we become thee favorite to win (Niners and Seattle both drop 1% because we are better and it all needs to add up to 100%). But with the money spent on him, we have less to spend on FAs in 2015 - Cobb, House, Daniels, etc. Our odds for the next 2 years drop significantly.

    The choice to me looks like this:

    Packer chance to win the SB
    2014 10% (with Byrd)
    2015 6% (with loss of FAs - creation of several holes)
    2016 7%
    2017 7%
    2018 8%

    Or, going status quo and we have an 8% chance of winning each season. But some seasons we may have a surprise superstar emerge - like Clay Matthews and our odds shoot up to 10% anyway. Or maybe we lose a superstar to injury and our odds decrease (like this season).

    I really think that some posters here think that winning a SB is easy and is just a decision that TT can make. They don't realize, apparently, that there are 20 other teams doing absolutely everything they can do to win a SB as well. And they are all drawing from the same talent pool with identical financial resources.

    If there was any move out there, that would guarantee the Packers a SB victory, we should do it. And I am positive that TT would do it without any hesitation. But there are no such moves, every signing comes with risk - and there are ramifications down the road. I like the position the Packers are in and the way this team is built. I firmly believe it offers us the best opportunity to win another SB in the next few years.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    Want and expect are two different concepts
     
  8. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    To work off Amish's post, even if we sign Byrd, there is no guarantee he'd bump up our chance of SB success that much. How'd Nnamdi Asomgha (sp???) signing fare for the Pats? Or Julius Peppers in Chicago? And to his excellent point, signing a guy like Byrd basically means we can say goodbye to Shields, James Jones, Cobb (or Jordy) ... It comes with a stiff price for the Packers to spend big in FA.

    Frank's approach is the most logical. Try to find some good bargains without risking future cap space. The problem is that this approach has rarely happened with TT and free agents have been getting overpaid in recent years. So, as much as I'd love Griffen, I have very little hope that'll happen.
     
  9. NOMOFO

    NOMOFO Cheesehead

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    I agree... I would love to see TT sign a veteran safety at a decent price on a 2 year. Here is another thought completely. I would actually be fine with TT trading away a first round pick for a proven vet safety. I just think our offense is in very good shape and the numbers tell me that this is the year TT can really try to fill needs and focus on the defense. I would be 100% fine going into camp with our current offensive roster. Well... if we can sign Jones.
     
  10. El Guapo

    El Guapo Cheesehead

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    ...and to work of both of those posts, targeting those reasonable free agents and actually landing them are two different things. Every GM is trying to get the "bargain" player. How much you offer them matters. Your system and coaches matter. Your city and amenities, or lack thereof, affect whether a player signs. TT went after Moss but wouldn't over-reach on price. He put the team ahead of a player as he should, and that roiled Favre. GMs make the tough calls
     
  11. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Go look at the Packers from the late 90s on till Brett left

    Other than a few teams here or there, that is exactly how those Pack teams did...Got to the playoffs all the time but never moved past the 1st rounds...

    Vikings and Atlanta beat us at home...Why? Because we won the division by default most years is my theory.
     
  12. Bignutz

    Bignutz I'm a victim of coicumstances!

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    +1 Agree!
     
  13. FrankRizzo

    FrankRizzo Cheesehead

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    This is a bigger factor than most fans realize.
    I know some fans say "well the type of player we want won't feel that way about our little village."
    But a lot of people don't like that small time thing, and some hate being in the North Pole if they don't have to be.

    One more factor is this: In the draft, which is Theodore's so-called "bread & butter", the players he chooses have no say in the matter (unless they're Eli). We draft em, they become Packers.
    In free agency, the GM typically has to sell the team, city, etc.

    Ted Thompson has more of a mortician, librarian personality than a charming, smooth-talking, fun, personable salesman.
    I think this aspect has been at least a little factor in him relying more on the draft than anyone else in the NFL.
     
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  14. BorderRivals.com

    BorderRivals.com Cheesehead

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    Other factors in free agency are teams success and star players. Playing for the three-time division champ, SB XLV champ, and with the best QB and one of the best defensive players in the league is very appealing. Not to mention a historic stadium with great fans.

    So, there are pro's and con's for the Packers in free agency, just like every destination.
     
  15. JacobInFlorida

    JacobInFlorida Cheesehead

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    All I've read are about the horrible contracts of Burnett and Jones. Well if those are the bad contracts TT gives out, we're not in bad shape.

    We only owe Burnett 6.5 mil more guaranteed. That's 17th among safeties and there's still hope he turns into a solid player.

    We only owe Brad Jones 2 mil more. Not that big a deal.
     
  16. raj34

    raj34 Cheesehead

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    Obviously tongue in cheek. It would really help though if Ted could draft somebody that can play defense well.

    Well regarded around the league? Are you referring to that recent puff piece in the sentinel? Are there training staffs that aren't well regarded around the league?

    McCarthy canned the strength coach when he fired the DC Sanders. Maybe he should fire this one too. Or maybe just carry on exactly the same as he has for the past four years and hope for a different result.

    I live in the Bay Area and have watched what Harbaugh has done at Stanford and now with the 49ers. Stanford was a finesse, oft injured team before Harbaugh got there. He instituted a new training regimen and now they're tough as hell and their injury rate has plummetted. He brought a lot of the same staff to the Niners and as we all know, they have stayed remarkably healthy.

    Maybe it's steroids. Maybe it's all luck. Or maybe they're doing something better than we are.

    Amusing girlfriend anecdote aside, you're wrong when you say any free agent won't help.

    When your safeties are ranked #63 and #67 respectively (ProFootballFocus) and have combined for zero picks in 17 games (first time in half a century), any free agent safety could help. I would prefer a good one, but any average veteran could help back there.
     
  17. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Burnett was a very good player in 2012...That is why he was awarded...
     
  18. JacobInFlorida

    JacobInFlorida Cheesehead

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    Exactly. I don't think his contract is some huge overpayment of a bad player.
     
  19. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    tried real hard to find PFF ranking of safeties, no luck

    May of 2012 athlon had Burnett at #10

    http://athlonsports.com/nfl/2012-nfl-fantasy-football-rankings-defensive-backs


    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1444324-br-nfl-1000-2013-top-75-safeties/page/11

    MD Jennings #45 . Burnett #20

    So at start of the year seems nationally people on board with Burnett..
     
  20. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    No, if I read right, they can cut him with a very low cap hit, around 6 mill?
     
  21. raj34

    raj34 Cheesehead

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    ProFootballFocus is premium. They did have Burnett rated #16 overall last year, so he's capable of being pretty good. Hopefully he bounces back.
     
  22. JacobInFlorida

    JacobInFlorida Cheesehead

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    Yep, and Brad Jones is 2mil. neither that crushing.
     
  23. AmishMafia

    AmishMafia Cheesehead

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    Great point in the first paragraph. But even if he does help, it is still a very small (relatively) impact on our odds. And still, even though you are the most likely team to win the SB, the odds are still well against you winning it. It has been a long time since the strongest team going into the season has won the SB. The Pats were the strongest team in the last decade or so - thanks to a bunch of FAs - but they didn't win the SB, losing to the Giants. The Pats had to go into semi-rebuild mode having lost a bunch of their own FAs they could no longer afford. One has to wonder if they didn't sign all those FAs and they kept their own FAs if they would have had a better chance at a SB.

    Not sure I agree with the 2nd paragraph. TT does sign FAs, but a player who can come in and contribute is going to be more expensive. We have a lot of talent on this roster (believe it or not) and not your average FAs would be able to step in and provide a meaningful impact.
     
  24. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    Bring back Woodson! the Raiders gave him a little over 1 million last year and he was head and shoulders above our safties. He knows the system, has veteran leadership, and play making ability has been missed big time. IMO it was a huge mistake for TT to let him go and it bit them in the butt. None of his sorry picks (Jennings, MCMillen) worked out this year.
     
  25. rodell330

    rodell330 Cheesehead

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    I know you have your Packer blinders on..and that's ok.
     

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