Trade Watson?

[Pokerbrat2000]

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The 55th Annual Amish Mafia Mock Draft

How it works: Supply 20 names of players and the round the Packers may take them. Rules: Select a total of 20 Players Pick at least 1 player per round EXCEPTION FOR THE 1ST ROUND You dont have to select a 1st rounder if you dont want to. List their name and position. Thread gets locked when...

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[Sunshinepacker]

What is elite money in your opinion? If he signs now or during the first part of the season he will I’d bet he within 10% gross of what Alec Pierce got

I'd say that, if he stays healthy, he could expect maybe $25m a year? That would make him the 17th highest paid WR

 

[Magooch]

It's really a tough call because there's two legit ways to look at negotiating his contract.

Watson and his camp are going to point out that *when he plays* his impact on the offense and his product are elite, among the best in the league. PFF, for instance, had him graded out as the 6th-best WR in the league last season. He's 2nd in the league in yards per rec, and 3rd in "deep receptions" (yards the ball has to travel before the catch) and ADOT.
In terms of AAV, the 6th-highest paid WR in the league right now is currently earning about 32m/yr (DK Metcalf/Garrett Wilson).

Meanwhile from the team's perspective they will probably emphasize his injury history, availability concerns, and the lack of "raw" production vs per-snap production. For instance Watson is 120th in receptions, 58th in rec yards, 38th in TD, 38th in EPA, and 17th in yards per game and 18th in rec success percentage. Whatever "rank" you pick from those corresponds to a much, MUCH lower salary.

It's also worth noting where the "floor" here is though. Currently, an "above average" WR is going to make 25m/yr AAV. Period. If you are in the top 16 WRs in the league, that's your minimum. Even 30m is basically "top 10 money" at this point. Watson is 100% going to get top-half money and in all likelihood he will be pushing that top-10 pay as well IMO. I can understand some trepidation about wanting to make him a top-10 paid WR but much worse than that is just dreaming at this point.

 

[tynimiller]

If they don't sniff Alec Pierce level area Watson should say no. Even if that has to be tighted or closed in on it with incentives more than he'd like.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's really a tough call because there's two legit ways to look at negotiating his contract.

Which is why I think the Packers wait until mid to end of season to undertake any kind of new contract with Watson. This gives them a chance to see where he is at, where the rest of their receivers are at.

If you sign him now, I think he gets Alec Pierce like numbers. If you wait, those numbers might go up a tick, but I don't think enough to warrant waiting and possibly avoiding the downsides of such a big contract.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

If they don't sniff Alec Pierce level area Watson should say no. Even if that has to be tighted or closed in on it with incentives more than he'd like.

Get out of my head.

 

[Pkrjones]

I'd say that, if he stays healthy, he could expect maybe $25m a year? That would make him the 17th highest paid WR

Pretty sure Watson's agent isn't aiming for 17th highest paid. Pierce's contract ($28.5mil/yr) is the floor.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Pretty sure Watson's agent isn't aiming for 17th highest paid. Pierce's contract ($28.5mil/yr) is the floor.

I agree with you and @tynimiller. Watson's value is at its highest point in his NFL career right now. The big question for the Packers is this: "Will he be worth giving that big of a contract to for the 2027 season and beyond?" Given that we are 17 months away from the 2027 season, I am just fine with answering that question in 10 months.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Pretty sure Watson's agent isn't aiming for 17th highest paid. Pierce's contract ($28.5mil/yr) is the floor.

Every agent is hoping to reset the market, but there is no world in which Watson gets paid like a top-5 WR next season by any team unless the Packers win the Super Bowl on the back of Watson having 1,800+ yards receiving. That's not really going to happen unless Jacobs is lost for the season early in the year because MLF loves to run the ball.

 

[Magooch]

The nice thing is that while it would be a tough pill to swallow in some ways...that 30m range seems somewhat "set" at the moment. Like, there's just not a ton of variation here. You have JSN and Chase as outliers at the moment, but beyond that, like i said... anyone in the top half is making 25m/yr+, and anyone in the top 10 is making roughly around that 30m ballpark.

So I'm in agreement - if we were to sign him today, it's probably right around that Alec Pierce contract at 28.5m/yr. BUT, I don't know how much more room he has for that number to go upward if we wait. I don't think there's any scenario in which Watson plays himself into a Jamarr Chase or JSN level contract (and I mean, good problem to have if he does lol), so he is probably still realistically looking at that low 30m range. So I'm kinda on board there. Maybe he plays in such a way that you end up paying him 5m more a year but (knock on wood) if he gets hurt or can't consistently produce and/or stay on the field you probably stand to save a pretty good chunk of change too

 

[OldSchool101]

GB will pay Watson after he proves he can play around a full year of football. So far it’s not the case. Potential is there but in NO way, shape or fashion does he get paid for another 600 yard performance. He’s closer to being on thin ice than he is $30-35Mil yearly type $.
Brian won’t be scared to go out and find his replacement and as of now my hunch is he’s already strategizing plan B, C post Watson. Great kid it’s nothing personal but we’d be crazy to dole out that $ if he’s status quo again. 2026 MUST be exceptional or Watson is as good as gone imo and especially if his season starts with another 6…
Not saying I want him gone I don’t. I hope he’s 1,209 yards 11 TD’s
(or elevates to 21.8 Avg per like Pierce)

 

[mradtke66]

Potential is there but in NO way, shape or fashion does he get paid for another 600 yard performance. He’s closer to being on thin ice than he is $30-35Mil yearly type $.

I'm not so sure, but if you've got inside information, do tell.

To me, the 1 year extension (this year) was the prove it deal. He came back from the ACL, no ill effects, and produced. The only question is how much and exactly when. Training camp? 6 games into the season? After the season?

 

[Pkrjones]

I'm not so sure, but if you've got inside information, do tell.

To me, the 1 year extension (this year) was the prove it deal. He came back from the ACL, no ill effects, and produced. The only question is how much and exactly when. Training camp? 6 games into the season? After the season?

I'm sure Watson's advisors want ASAP to minimize risk of injury in TC, and GB would love to extend him week 16 after he's played injury-free all season. Question is will Watson sit out TC until he gets extended?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm not so sure, but if you've got inside information, do tell.

To me, the 1 year extension (this year) was the prove it deal. He came back from the ACL, no ill effects, and produced. The only question is how much and exactly when. Training camp? 6 games into the season? After the season?

Maybe we can extend him for 2027, on another "prove it" deal?

 

[mradtke66]

I'm sure Watson's advisors want ASAP to minimize risk of injury in TC, and GB would love to extend him week 16 after he's played injury-free all season. Question is will Watson sit out TC until he gets extended?

Anything is possible. I doubt Watson sits out, but each week he's healthy and does well, his price goes up. That's the risk vs. reward they'll be weighing.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Anything is possible. I doubt Watson sits out, but each week he's healthy and does well, his price goes up. That's the risk vs. reward they'll be weighing.

Yup and hopefully, other WR's on the Packers stay healthy, as well as improve, giving them more options to choose from as they get closer to 2027.

Watson sitting out would be the worst thing that he could do IMO. I know there are some that think he is on his way to being a FHOF WR and thus would force the Packers to trade him or give him a big contract. I don't think he is at that kind of level of play to warrant the Packers to panic and cave. Not to mention he would be forfeiting about $650K for each game he misses + fines for missing TC.

 

[OldSchool101]

I'm sure Watson's advisors want ASAP to minimize risk of injury in TC, and GB would love to extend him week 16 after he's played injury-free all season. Question is will Watson sit out TC until he gets extended?

It’s pretty simple. Make him bet on himself. Tie a bigger %+ of his $$ to per game bonus. That way he gets his offer it’s just tied to injury risk. For myself I know he’ll perform that’s never been in question (as much as some want to make that a debate). It’s mostly about availability imo. Nobody would be having these conversations if he didn’t miss 20 games

 

[mradtke66]

Yup and hopefully, other WR's on the Packers stay healthy, as well as improve, giving them more options to choose from as they get closer to 2027.

I also hope they improve, but one of Reed or Watson is going to get a raise next year. Losing both of them sets the room back again. Watson has questions around his durability, Reed about his ability to take that next step. Watson is better and scarier, Reed has missed less time. Watson doesn't have an obvious replacement on the roster, Reed does (Golden.)

Watson sitting out would be the worst thing that he could do IMO. I know there are some that think he is on his way to being a FHOF WR and thus would force the Packers to trade him or give him a big contract. I don't think he is at that kind of level of play to warrant the Packers to panic and cave. Not to mention he would be forfeiting about $650K for each game he misses + fines for missing TC.

I agree that he likely doesn't. I agree that doing so probably hurts him more than it helps.

 

[mradtke66]

It’s pretty simple. Make him bet on himself. Tie a bigger %+ of his $$ to per game bonus.

Easy to say, not necessarily easy to execute. Another team might not tie as much money to per game bonuses. And of course, tying money to Likely to be earned vs. Unlikely to be earned does create variability in his cap hits. There is something to be said for knowing when and how the hits are registered against the cap.

For myself I know he’ll perform that’s never been in question (as much as some want to make that a debate). It’s mostly about availability imo. Nobody would be having these conversations if he didn’t miss 20 games

This is valid, but also an incomplete story. First two years, he had soft tissue issues. He addressed them for 2024 and popped his ACL. ACLs are flukes and I consider this distinct from the hammy problems. The team addressed ACL risk with the one year extension. He came back with no ill effects from that.

Were it me, I'd just want him to get through TC and be ready for week 1. If he's healthy then, it's contract time.

Is there risk with his next contract? Of course, but thats every contract.

 

[OldSchool101]

Easy to say, not necessarily easy to execute. Another team might not tie as much money to per game bonuses.

Except Watson is under contract. No other team can touch him until 2027.

Personally I’m just being upfront and truthful and saying we’re not planning any big offer until he’s mid season and healthy. We tried that Bak and others and it bit us big time. If an offer comes a year early it’s going to be heavily tied to playing time and we’d recommend just being patient as a big contract likely coming.

I’ll be frank if GB gets a player like Hurst or Bryce Lance? I’m not in the least bothered by what Watson’s agent thinks or doesn’t think. If he pushes too hard he might become Elgton Jenkins 2.0.

 

[AmishMafia]

Well, looks like its Wicks getting traded. To the Eagles for a 5th in 26 and a 7th in the 27 draft.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well, looks like its Wicks getting traded. To the Eagles for a 5th in 26 and a 7th in the 27 draft.

I’m expecting Philly pick #178, but if Brian lands pick #153 in 2 weeks? This move is genius.

Through my many interactive Mocks and trades, there should be some really good players available in RD5. Especially at WR, RB, TE, CB etc.

 

[gopkrs]

Well, looks like its Wicks getting traded. To the Eagles for a 5th in 26 and a 7th in the 27 draft.

I don't like it much. But he has underperformed.

 

[DoURant]

Looking like all the WR trade noise is finally shaking out. Definitely will be in the market for a Draft pick to fill this void, and validates why some Top 30 visits were scheduled.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I don't like it much. But he has underperformed.

Yeah, why make the trade if the return is so pitiful. It appears that Wicks is viewed as some sort of negative presence on the team because he was dealt for little.

Why not let him play out his contract and get one more year from him. Whatever comp pick they would get is comparable or better to what they are reportedly getting.