Watson - 1 year extension

[tynimiller]

Sounds like it’s been confirmed that we have agreed to a one year extension with Watson…sounds like in the $12M range but likely some is this year for sure spreading the hit.

First thing I thought of was, wonder what Doubs is thinking.

FTR I mentioned doing something like this for Watson awhile back, it would be a good thing for the team to tie down a gamechanger for one more year and hope he heals and is still that guy (no denying when healthy he tilts a field) AND it is good for Watson to build up and breathe a little not worrying about rushing back while putting some millions away and playing for that first BIG contract now after next season.

 

[tynimiller]

Correction $13+ M

 

[OldSchool101]

Correction $13+ M

I like this. First of all it speaks to his recovery being successful. He’s close.

One ingredient in the recipe to offset this Micah contract Tsunami is to get ahead of contracts earlier. As an example, if you wait and Watson misses time, but has a 700yds+ 6-7 TD type, partial season?
He’s likely to see a 3yrX50/55Mil
type offer from outside.

I’d be curious how much is guaranteed?

 

[tynimiller]

I like this.

One ingredient in the recipe to offset this Micah contract Tsunami is to get ahead of contracts earlier. As an example, if you wait and Watson misses time, but has a 700yds+ 6-7 TD type, partial season?
He’s likely to see a 3yrX50/55Mil
type offer from outside.

I’d be curious how much is guaranteed?

I wouldn't be shocked ONE bit if they fully guaranteed it and treated it similar to a split fifth year option had he been a first rounder...but we shall see. I bet at least $10M...especially with the ability to slide some of the hit to this year.

 

[milani]

Sounds like it’s been confirmed that we have agreed to a one year extension with Watson…sounds like in the $12M range but likely some is this year for sure spreading the hit.

First thing I thought of was, wonder what Doubs is thinking.

FTR I mentioned doing something like this for Watson awhile back, it would be a good thing for the team to tie down a gamechanger for one more year and hope he heals and is still that guy (no denying when healthy he tilts a field) AND it is good for Watson to build up and breathe a little not worrying about rushing back while putting some millions away and playing for that first BIG contract now after next season.

Not sure on this one. The guy has speed but he still struggles with separation and catches. He can be a klutz. He is liable to trip on the pylon and land on his head. I would have waited until after the season. You just spent a lot of money on Golden.

 

[tynimiller]

Not sure on this one. The guy has speed but he still struggles with separation and catches. He can be a klutz. He is liable to trip on the pylon and land on his head. I would have waited until after the season. You just spent a lot of money on Golden.

This is not Musgrave lol

Only knock on Watson is health, he is one of the most productive young receivers in the league when out there and field shifter.

 

[mradtke66]

Not sure on this one. The guy has speed but he still struggles with separation and catches.

He had 2 drops in 2024, a rate of 3.8%. Only Jacob’s with 0 drops was better.

He can be a klutz. He is liable to trip on the pylon and land on his head. I would have waited until after the season.

The setup is giving him some money so he doesn’t come back prematurely and hurt himself more. This gives him the flexibility to recover properly and if he goes off when he returns, you’ve locked him up for 2025.

You just spent a lot of money on Golden.

Golden is a rookie. In terms of cap, he’s getting paid peanuts. 17.5M or 4.74M per year (roughly).

 

[Magooch]

Great deal for both us and Watson. IMO probably means the writing is on the wall for Doubs (if it wasn’t already)

 

[OldSchool101]

Great deal for both us and Watson. IMO probably means the writing is on the wall for Doubs (if it wasn’t already)

I think Doubs plays himself right out of GB. He’s going to be a Top 3 fed Receiver earlier which will boost his production and future stock. Let’s just say conservatively Doubs logged 650 yards and 5 TD’s. He’ll probably get a $13/yr offer outside of GB and we can’t keep matching or beating those. It’ll likely be a higher contract offer though imo.

Now we know we’ve got our deep threat through 2026 (Watson)
We know Reed is here through 2026. The positional flexibility that Golden offers is he’s Watson’s replacement for 4-6 Weeks and then he flips into the 2026 replacement for Doubs at 25% the cost.

 

[tynimiller]

I think Doubs plays himself right out of GB. He’s going to be a Top 3 fed Receiver earlier which will boost his production and future stock. Let’s just say conservatively Doubs logged 650 yards and 5 TD’s. He’ll probably get a $13/yr offer outside of GB and we can’t keep matching or beating those. It’ll likely be a higher contract offer though imo.

Now we know we’ve got our deep threat through 2026 (Watson)
We know Reed is here through 2026. The positional flexibility that Golden offers is he’s Watson’s replacement for 4-6 Weeks and then he flips into the 2026 replacement for Doubs at 25% the cost.

IF Reed and Wicks or minimum one has showcased to staff to think either or one can become a serious part of the offense even more than they already have....
IF Golden appears none of this is too fast and too big as a rookie...
IF Watson is truly as vastly ahead of healing schedule as it seems and it seems is good once back....
IF Malik Heath still shows out as a fully capable WR5...
IF Savion Wiliams shows promise of also WR5 level role when needed....

There simply is no where room wise for Doubs in the future....

Which as many know but I will say it every time - PAINS ME TO SAY THAT. Doubs is one of my favorite Packers and I want nothing more than his career to play out like Driver's...just be a constant presence for YEARS.....but roster structure and responsible management likely should listen to legit offers for him if they come in this year before trade deadline - because you absolutely know he's going to leave in FA because he'll get paid to be someone's WR2 or worst case 3rd option in their passing game.

 

[Magooch]

I agree with both of you for sure....as much as I would love for Doubs to be that Driver-type guy, honestly part of me feels like with the way the game is going today, that role is a dying breed (if not dead already lol). You're always gonna have a team willing to step in and make a better offer than you can afford to pay your "Driver-role," so unless the player just LOVES his team/town and is willing to take a big discount, it's probably not happening in today's league...

 

[tynimiller]

I agree with both of you for sure....as much as I would love for Doubs to be that Driver-type guy, honestly part of me feels like with the way the game is going today, that role is a dying breed (if not dead already lol). You're always gonna have a team willing to step in and make a better offer than you can afford to pay your "Driver-role," so unless the player just LOVES his team/town and is willing to take a big discount, it's probably not happening in today's league...

100%...now to be fair I know Doubs and his introverted nature type, IF there is any guy on our team that might offer GB a willingness to take a deal that has too much of a home team discount to ignore it would be Doubs.

I will say IF that might be the case...that is likely already known....and would likely cause some coming news to break that he took a one year or two year extension as well and Wicks is being traded to someone.... *Not advocating this but if you sign Doubs you now IMO must likely find yourself willing to move Reed or Wicks.

 

[Capitol 8805]

This morning on ESPN Wisconsin Wilde-Taush, Taush said GB has 2 to 3 offers on the table for Doubs.

Interesting!

 

[tynimiller]

This morning on ESPN Wisconsin Wilde-Taush, Taush said GB has 2 to 3 offers on the table for Doubs.

Interesting!

Yeah, a few of my contacts all but confirmed there was a team in the Preseason that 100% had an offer for him. They wouldn't tell me who, but did let it slip that they don't think I'd be surprised.

Which of course the obvious choice would be Steelers.

 

[tynimiller]

Just so folks know it is being reported that the structure of this contract really changes NOTHING in 2025 (mildly shocked) AND is purely a $13.25M for 2026 deal.

No word on guarantee, but in truth if he is Healthy GB ain't walking from him at that price. Now I could see them guaranteeing like half that as a dice roll and walking would cost us say half of that for one year...but we will see exact figures when released.

 

[El Guapo]

Micah Parsons ensured that players like Elgton Jenkins, Romeo Doubs, Quay Walker, and others will not be able to stay because the Packers won't have enough cap space. It means even more that this is a do-it-now year with these players. Hopefully it motivates these guys to play their best for a FA contract, and it manifests into a championship trophy for Green Bay.

 

[gopkrs]

How is it that KC is able to keep it going year in and year out? They have some big contracts they must be paying.

 

[El Guapo]

Just so folks know it is being reported that the structure of this contract really changes NOTHING in 2025 (mildly shocked) AND is purely a $13.25M for 2026 deal.

No word on guarantee, but in truth if he is Healthy GB ain't walking from him at that price. Now I could see them guaranteeing like half that as a dice roll and walking would cost us say half of that for one year...but we will see exact figures when released.

Last week, the Detroit Lions gave a $83 million 3yr extension to Jameson Williams, who is almost identical to Watson. The worry was whether the Packers would feel that Watson is worth the same amount or more.

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Giving Watson a small extension was a shrewd move.

 

[tynimiller]

Last week, the Detroit Lions gave a $83 million 3yr extension to Jameson Williams, who is almost identical to Watson. The worry was whether the Packers would feel that Watson is worth the same amount or more.

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Giving Watson a small extension was a shrewd move.

So yes, looking at stats alone this was something I knew folks would go to when the Williams news broke.

The biggest difference is their timeline of play during their careers and one team is dealing with a guy farther removed from an ACL injury that they feel is fully healed from and one that is in the midst of recovery.

If someone wants to know the year to year comparison of the two guys I'll share it below the short blurb about Williams who not all might be familiar with like they are for GB guys.
Jameson like many might remember essentially was drafted with no promise he'd even be able to play his rookie year due to injury...he ended up dressing in just 6 and only have 9 targets. Then in 2023 he had two hamstring injuries which hindered his health at first for that year....but 2024 the young man saw 15 games and started 11 games - 1,001 yards on just 58 receptions (17.3 yards per catch)

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Yes, if Watson comes back and lights it up in whatever portion of 2025 he sees, and starts 2026 right where he left off and GB would decide to give him a true extension again Williams deal would be the bottom figure likely.

 

[tynimiller]

How is it that KC is able to keep it going year in and year out? They have some big contracts they must be paying.

So to be fair one thing KC did that keeps their window so wide for a time is Mahomes ten year deal...they can keep mortgaging future to a point more than most teams BUT it will eventually come due, it always does....now of course one can always mortgage the future can to cover the now but that is not something GB does often EXCEPT for the few times they really do and push for a few years and then we swallow massive dead cap eventually.

 

[gopkrs]

So to be fair one thing KC did that keeps their window so wide for a time is Mahomes ten year deal...they can keep mortgaging future to a point more than most teams BUT it will eventually come due, it always does....now of course one can always mortgage the future can to cover the now but that is not something GB does often EXCEPT for the few times they really do and push for a few years and then we swallow massive dead cap eventually.

I had thought they already, maybe twice, restructured Mahomes contract. So you are saving they keep extending it 10 years?

 

[tynimiller]

I had thought they already, maybe twice, restructured Mahomes contract. So you are saving they keep extending it 10 years?

Whenever you sign that long you can delay it then and restructure options can for sure be used if needed further.

 

[mradtke66]

Micah Parsons ensured that players like Elgton Jenkins, Romeo Doubs, Quay Walker, and others will not be able to stay because the Packers won't have enough cap space.

I don't think this list changed much as a result of getting Parsons. Some people will move on, some will stay, but their fate was determined by their age and performance.

Jenkins' base salary explodes next year, he'll be on the wrong side of 30, and this would be his 3rd contract. It is rare for us to give 3rd contracts.

Romeo is in that tier where you're willing to let him walk if he's too expensive. He's a good player, but he isn't necessarily great. Put another way, he's replaceable and we might have already drafted his replacement.

Quay is the one oddball. We have another good linebacker in Cooper, but you really need two good off-the-ball linebackers to run any base scheme or nickel. He's playing better. It's also a non-premium position. Highest paid MLB is 21M per year. 5th is 15M per year. 15M is less than 5.5% of the cap in 2025, 21M is ~7%. If he proves he's worth it, that would be an easy contract to fit.

 

[tynimiller]

I don't think this list changed much as a result of getting Parsons. Some people will move on, some will stay, but their fate was determined by their age and performance.

Jenkins' base salary explodes next year, he'll be on the wrong side of 30, and this would be his 3rd contract. It is rare for us to give 3rd contracts.

Romeo is in that tier where you're willing to let him walk if he's too expensive. He's a good player, but he isn't necessarily great. Put another way, he's replaceable and we might have already drafted his replacement.

Quay is the one oddball. We have another good linebacker in Cooper, but you really need two good off-the-ball linebackers to run any base scheme or nickel. He's playing better. It's also a non-premium position. Highest paid MLB is 21M per year. 5th is 15M per year. 15M is less than 5.5% of the cap in 2025, 21M is ~7%. If he proves he's worth it, that would be an easy contract to fit.

To pretend that spending money from a pot isn’t an influence of things just as much as the players age and performance which you presented as reasons seems a little short sighted no?

 

[mradtke66]

To pretend that spending money from a pot isn’t an influence of things just as much as the players age and performance which you presented as reasons seems a little short sighted no?

As always, some yes, some no.

Because the cap is a finite resource, teams are always picking and choosing who stays and who goes. Teams apparently work within some rules for they offer extensions to to keep themselves free to offer the big bucks to the special players. (The Yes.)

Jenkins is an example of a player who would (likely, anyway) be gone after this year had we got Parsons or not. He's getting old, his current 2026 salary out paces norms for his new position, and the Packers are loathe to hand out 3rd contracts. The few they do give out are for premium positions. (Bhak at LT, Rodgers at QB.). We can go back and look at this forum. Many were projecting his departure/calling 2025 his last year well before we got Parsons.

Doubs is in the unfortunate spot of churn in a draft and develop league. I think he's a better player than MVS on the whole, but he's in the same spot. Pending a sudden improvement this year, we are likely to judge him not work an extension and/or a different org will value him more. I'm not going to sit here and say he's bad, because he's not, but he's not special. As such, we won't pay him special money.