Trade Watson?

[Pokerbrat2000]

"The stare" - Rodgers was/is one of the greatest QBs to play in the NFL. But his interpersonal skills were lacking.

He did bring leadership, but he mostly lead through fear. No receiver, hell no teammate, wanted to get "The Stare".

I don't think it's a good way to motivate people to do better.

Yup, that "AR Stare" and body language was by far his worst trait on the field. His teammates are grown men, they don't need the passive-aggressive BS on or off the field.

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[Pokerbrat2000]

Are you unwilling to sign any receiver to a premium contract?

Depends on the receiver and the other receivers that we have at the time and what their contracts are like. It also depends on the cap outlook for the Packers in whole and what that receivers new deal would look like.

Let's put it this way. I would rather have 4-5 affordable, on the rise receivers, on rookie deals or low guaranteed veteran deals, than 1 Highly paid receiver and 3-4 Jags to go with him.

 

[mradtke66]

Ummm....how is it disengenous? Alex Pierce, who some have compared a Watson contract to, signed the following deal:

Mostly because contracts are complicated. His cap impact will likely be higher, his signing bonus lower.

I think sportrac started splitting “guaranteed at signing” vs “practically guaranteed,” which is more accurate but still not perfect.

 

[Magooch]

Let's put it this way. I would rather have 4-5 affordable, on the rise receivers, on rookie deals or low guaranteed veteran deals, than 1 Highly paid receiver and 3-4 Jags to go with him.

That I'm not so sure I can get on board with. I mean we already saw for a good chunk of the past few years how the "We don't need a #1 WR because we have a few guys who can be our #1 on a given week" approach has worked out for us....with us deciding that we needed to draft a WR in the 1st round for the first time in decades lol

A handful of "risers" with potential is not a bad thing in itself but there's also a point where a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush... broadly speaking I think we've had a bit of an overreliance (not just at WR) on the philosophy that we don't need to invest in a given position because we have so-and-so who COULD grow into a more prominent role for us. Unfortunately more often than not it seems like that doesn't end up actually playing out that way in reality. Give me the proven production lol

 

[mradtke66]

Alex Pierce, who som

I actually love think I like the Jax contract structure more. It’s not a perfect comparison, but the first two years of cap are lower in exchange for more signing bonus.

Those last two years of base salary are higher, so maybe I’m less sure.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think sportrac started splitting “guaranteed at signing” vs “practically guaranteed,” which is more accurate but still not perfect.

Yup. I could be wrong on this but the "practically guaranteed amounts" are the guaranteed bonuses given out if they are still on the roster like after the 3rd day of each new league year. The "practically" part is the fact that they probably wouldn't be cut, due to the large dead cap that the team would suddenly face.

 

[milani]

I remember that game. If it's the one I'm thinking about, the 9ers only TD came on a blocked punt. I think the score was 13-7.

Rodgers just wasn't a clutch QB. That's probably not completely fair, but it seemed that way to me.

On another thread I commented that Rodgers lead mostly by fear, and was far too reliant on Adams and unwilling to give younger players a chance. That hurt the team in the playoffs as well.

Early in that season the Niners had a 28-27 lead with just under 40 seconds left. They decided to rush just 4. Rodgers found Adams twice and with 3 seconds left it enabled Crosby to hit the walkoff winner from 50.
But in the 13-10 postseason loss the Packers had the ball late in the 4th. On 3rd down Lazard was open on a crossing pattern that could have not only kept the drive open but got us to midfield at least. Instead Rodgers targets Adams who is well covered. We had to punt.
In a game in which we get both a FG and a punt blocked but still have a golden opportunity to win the game on home field, you have to get it done. You have to overcome the adversity.

 

[Heyjoe4]

My point is all of those things should be true since he is better than the player that is on the field when he isn't.

Seems to me like you and mradtke66 are both right. Watson is the best WR on the team, he has improved each season, and he is a threat to out up a 1300 plus yard, 12-15 plus TD season. A threat to do it, as in, he hasn't done it yet.

If he wants elite money he has to have an elite year, IMO. Poker provides some solid intel on elite WR comp. Poker also provides this:

"Alec Pierce signed a 4 year, $114,000,000 contract with the Indianapolis Colts, including $26,000,000 signing bonus,"

This is about where I'd expect Watson to land if he has a solid year - ala, 1000 yards plus, 112 TDs plus, plays in all 17 regular season games, or at a minimum, 15. His injury history is just too much to go higher than this.

So to avoid losing him in FA in the offseason to a contract the Packers won't pay, extend him mid-season to Alec-Pierce-like numbers and hope that his chronic injury history is just that, history. That's a risk worth taking.

Now he has seemed to solve his worst injury problem - soft-tissue/hamstring chronic injury. There was a leg-strength discrepancy apparently and he's worked on that.

But his presence on the field impacts the entire offense and the opposing defense. I think it was one of the last two Chicago games. Reed and Watson were lined up on the right side, with Watson on the outside. Watson broke inside and carried two CBs with him. That left Reed, who broke left with only a LB in coverage. Reed caught the pass for an easy TD, but the mismatch that made the play work was due to Watson carrying two CBs away from the play. It was brilliant.

 

[OldSchool101]

Seems to me like you and mradtke66 are both right. Watson is the best WR on the team, he has improved each season, and he is a threat to out up a 1300 plus yard, 12-15 plus TD season. A threat to do it, as in, he hasn't done it yet.

If he wants elite money he has to have an elite year, IMO. Poker provides some solid intel on elite WR comp. Poker also provides this:

"Alec Pierce signed a 4 year, $114,000,000 contract with the Indianapolis Colts, including $26,000,000 signing bonus,"

This is about where I'd expect Watson to land if he has a solid year - ala, 1000 yards plus, 112 TDs plus, plays in all 17 regular season games, or at a minimum, 15. His injury history is just too much to go higher than this.

So to avoid losing him in FA in the offseason to a contract the Packers won't pay, extend him mid-season to Alec-Pierce-like numbers and hope that his chronic injury history is just that, history. That's a risk worth taking.

Now he has seemed to solve his worst injury problem - soft-tissue/hamstring chronic injury. There was a leg-strength discrepancy apparently and he's worked on that.

But his presence on the field impacts the entire offense and the opposing defense. I think it was one of the last two Chicago games. Reed and Watson were lined up on the right side, with Watson on the outside. Watson broke inside and carried two CBs with him. That left Reed, who broke left with only a LB in coverage. Reed caught the pass for an easy TD, but the mismatch that made the play work was due to Watson carrying two CBs away from the play. It was brilliant.

Yeah the bigger ? On Watson is he’s had 50% of his career missing significant time. Not catastrophic level missed time, but still a factor when you hand out $100M+ contracts.

The competition in FA when we start talking $28mil+ yearly becomes past just direct competition like Pierce. You begin to bring in other position groups into conversation when approaching $28mil annual type deals. You’re now less than <$5mil from the group of highest paid at multiple positions. As en example. If you had the choice between DT, Chris Jones and Christian Watson who would you pick? Because that’s like $3mil annual difference there.
The Alec Pierce is a good comparative. Which player would you choose between Alec Pierce and Christian Watson? Now I love Watson, but Alec Pierce has been more reliable, outperformed and is an ascending player already going from 600+ to 800+ to 1000+ and still rising. Watson has never cracked 650 yards across 4 years. So I think you are correct. Watson MUST perform and remain healthy all year or he’s going to tank his value imo. He could be $30mil annual if he finished 1,100 yards and 10 TD’s or $15-20mil annual if he misses 7-8 games again. So #9 has up to $15mil annual riding on his health in 2026 imo.

Can you imagine GB having Chris Jones and Davante Wyatt and Javon Hargrave either side. Then Micah and Lukas coming onto the scene? We could go out and draft at CB and Edge using #52 and #84 without blinking an eye. Then focus on Offense all Day 3. OL, RB, TE etc.

 

[DoURant]

We could go out and draft at CB and Edge using #52 and #84 without blinking an eye. Then focus on Offense all Day 3. OL, RB, TE etc.

I'm all for this scenario. I think Edge at #52, looks a lot better than at #84, and CB at #84 looks to be that sweet spot for that position with Muhammad, Neal, Everette, and Igbinoson most likely being available in that area.

 

[SudsMcBucky]

This is about where I'd expect Watson to land if he has a solid year - ala, 1000 yards plus, 112 TDs plus, plays in all 17 regular season games, or at a minimum, 15. His injury history is just too much to go higher than this.

Man, that's a LOT of TD's in a season. Hope he can do it!

 

[Schultz]

I am pretty sure he is including preseason and the playoffs.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I am pretty sure he is including preseason and the playoffs.

and practice and dreams...

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[DoURant]

Man, that's a LOT of TD's in a season. Hope he can do it!

As long as our Special Teams don't let us down, we should have a good shot at our 5th Lombardi trophy

 

[mradtke66]

As en example. If you had the choice between DT, Chris Jones and Christian Watson who would you pick? Because that’s like $3mil annual difference there.

Chris Jones is a player comparison that doesn't really work. I'll try to break down my thoughts piece by piece.

First, all else being equal, I would prefer an elite DT over an elite WR.

Second, we can't sign Chris Jones. He's never hit free agency. Even if we were granted a special rule exception to offer any free agent a 1 Billion dollar contract, we couldn't offer it to him. He was drafted by KC, franchised by KC, and then extended by KC. IMHO, he's a perfect example of "good players don't make it to free agency." (His dead cap is over 64M, so he's not getting cut.)

Third, he's cap number is almost 45M this coming season. Pierce peeks at 35.2M. Justin Jefferson doesn't cross the 45M number until next year. Chase not until 2029.

Fourth, Jones is (or will turn) 32 this season. With 100% a straight face, I would take Watson over Jones for equivalent money every time. I expect Jones to hit the wall at nearly any time and not be worth his wage. He has earned every penny, but age is not normally kind to athletic pass rushers.

 

[milani]

As long as our Special Teams don't let us down, we should have a good shot at our 5th Lombardi trophy

Or at least have a good chance of recovering an onside kick.

 

[OldSchool101]

Chris Jones is a player comparison that doesn't really work. I'll try to break down my thoughts piece by piece.

First, all else being equal, I would prefer an elite DT over an elite WR.

Second, we can't sign Chris Jones. He's never hit free agency. Even if we were granted a special rule exception to offer any free agent a 1 Billion dollar contract, we couldn't offer it to him. He was drafted by KC, franchised by KC, and then extended by KC. IMHO, he's a perfect example of "good players don't make it to free agency." (His dead cap is over 64M, so he's not getting cut.)

Third, he's cap number is almost 45M this coming season. Pierce peeks at 35.2M. Justin Jefferson doesn't cross the 45M number until next year. Chase not until 2029.

Fourth, Jones is (or will turn) 32 this season. With 100% a straight face, I would take Watson over Jones for equivalent money every time. I expect Jones to hit the wall at nearly any time and not be worth his wage. He has earned every penny, but age is not normally kind to athletic pass rushers.

You’re missing the point. The point is when you start talking $30Mil-$$35Mil annual, these are the types of players that come on radar. You know very well there are “options” if we start tossing around $100Mil guaranteed $$. To be determined but at this point there is a cause for Watson having multiple 1/2 finishes and before you guys start talking $100mil guar or $30Mil-$35Mil annual? For me and apparently many others also, that reason needs to be put to rest.
Watson needs to validate he can stay on that field before I give him a dime over $20Mil a

We’ve all talked about Watson hitting 112 TD or whatever. (Being funny) But let’s look at realistic example 2

Watson finishes..

12 games played 823 yards 7 TD’s.

Do you guys still hit him at $35mil yearly? $120Mil guar?

.

 

[mradtke66]

You’re missing the point. The point is when you start talking $30Mil-$$35Mil annual, these are the types of players that come on radar. You know very well there are “options” if we start tossing around $100Mil guaranteed $$.

I don't think there ARE those options. I'm not trying to be silly.

Looking over Sportrac's list of free agents this year and it's weird list. Ordered by AAV, high to low.

Kirk Cousins is top of the list in terms of AAV 34.4M per year, but the structure (from what we know today) is that its really a 2-ish year deal with team options. Which makes sense, he's 38.

Jaelan Phillips is going to average ~30M per year. He's young enough, but his best year was his rookie year. He's never hit 10 sacks.

Alec Pierce is averaging 28M per year. He's young, good....but never actually hit free agency. He re-signed with the team that drafted him.

Trey Hendrickson is going to average 28M per year. He's old and not a great run defender. Almost any deal would scare me.

Tyler Linderbaum 27M, perhaps the gem of this year's class. Not a bad signing, but I think the Raiders overpaid relative to his skill set.
Odafe Oweh will average 24M. I admit to not knowing that well. He's young enough, but his on-paper history worries me. 1st round pick by the Ravens and traded to the Chargers for a 7th and 5th while on his rookie contract, in the same year he logged 10 sacks. Something doesn't add up here and it isn't immediately good.

Our friend, Malik Willis. 22.5M per year.

John Franklin-Myers 21M per year. Older, will turn 30 this season. Again, not super familiar with him. If he's a 3-4 DE, he's good with 7 to 8 sacks per year. If he's a 4-3 end, he's average. This seems like an over-pay.

Boye Mafe, 20M per year. Young, but doesn't have great production. 2 sacks last year playing 55% of snaps. Only started 4 games.

At that is the list players that average 20M or more per year. I am legitimately asking, who were the options?

Watson needs to validate he can stay on that field before I give him a dime over $20Mil

I don't disagree. I think he's probably there, but I get want to wait 4-8 games. There is risk that he goes off and is healthy the whole year and you pay him more. Earlier or Later, there is risk either way.

Watson finishes..

12 games played 823 yards 7 TD’s.

Do you guys still hit him at $35mil yearly? $120Mil guar?

Unlikely, but I also wouldn't offer him that now. Using Pierce as the baseline, he's ~ 28.5M per year and ~84M guaranteed. I would hope he'd sign for slightly less due to his injury history.

 

[tynimiller]

You’re missing the point. The point is when you start talking $30Mil-$$35Mil annual, these are the types of players that come on radar. You know very well there are “options” if we start tossing around $100Mil guaranteed $$. To be determined but at this point there is a cause for Watson having multiple 1/2 finishes and before you guys start talking $100mil guar or $30Mil-$35Mil annual? For me and apparently many others also, that reason needs to be put to rest.
Watson needs to validate he can stay on that field before I give him a dime over $20Mil a

We’ve all talked about Watson hitting 112 TD or whatever. (Being funny) But let’s look at realistic example 2

Watson finishes..

12 games played 823 yards 7 TD’s.

Do you guys still hit him at $35mil yearly? $120Mil guar?

.

I've already illustrated the AAV has to be ignored IMO as that won't be the structure of the years which hit IF we were to sign him to such a contract...BUT also when someone tells me to envision who the top 4 or 5 paid players are at any position...who do I picture? I picture this:

Likely the last 3 or 4 star players for a given team to sign a contract that plays that position - I don't ever envision persay a level of a player, because contract escalations are a real thing and is just the nature of how it is.

 

[DoURant]

I just found this. Unfortunately Kraft didn't make the TE list, as it was based on 450 snaps last year. Anyway, here is the WR list and how it was weighted for score.

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[Magooch]

I've already illustrated the AAV has to be ignored IMO as that won't be the structure of the years which hit IF we were to sign him to such a contract...BUT also when someone tells me to envision who the top 4 or 5 paid players are at any position...who do I picture? I picture this:

Likely the last 3 or 4 star players for a given team to sign a contract that plays that position - I don't ever envision persay a level of a player, because contract escalations are a real thing and is just the nature of how it is.

Yep I think this needs reiterated. The bottom line is that in this league a new contract is going to be worth more than an old contract and there's often some wide discrepancies between "top players" and "top paid players". At the end of the day it's totally commonplace to see a "worse" player on a new contract making appreciably more than a "better" or even an "elite" player on an older contract, it's just how it is.

I also have said it before but I think it's easy to get hung up on the literal dollar number we assign for the AAV when in reality this number is basically imaginary. Not least of which as you point out that the contract structuring can be maneuvered around that one way or the other, but also because this "number" is only relevant when viewed as a function of the overall cap. So maybe it's nitpicking but we really should not be asking "Are we okay with paying Watson 30m a year" but instead "Are we okay with paying Watson (#)% of our cap each year?".

Or to put it even more simply, top WRs in the league for ages now have been accounting for somewhere like 8% of the cap, give or take a little. And so regardless of what the contract number itself works out to be, that's about how much you can expect to go to a top WR. So we should really just simply be asking ourselves, are we willing to pay Watson at a rate that is in-line with other top WRs or not?

If the answer is Yes, we do think Watson is a top WR and should be paid accordingly, then that 30m number (or wherever it settles) is immaterial. And if we don't think Watson is a top WR and/or don't think he should be paid like one, then again, the actual number is immaterial, unless you think you can get him to accept a massive discount to stay

 

[Pkrjones]

Love's cap # balloons to $75mil in '28, so a new deal will be made prior.
Parson's becomes $74mil in '29.

No reason why Watson can't get a 4 year/$135mil with $60mil SB extension thru '30, and a cap # of $75mil in '30. Does GB really want to keep kicking that can into the future, or does fiscal sanity need to factor in?

That's just 1 example, of course, but a single, oft-injured WR shouldn't command that type of cap usage, imho.

I don't dislike Watson or minimize his value to the GB offense, just don't think he's worth what someone will be willing to pay.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Love's cap # balloons to $75mil in '28, so a new deal will be made prior.
Parson's becomes $74mil in '29.

No reason why Watson can't get a 4 year/$135mil with $60mil SB extension thru '30, and a cap # of $75mil in '30. Does GB really want to keep kicking that can into the future, or does fiscal sanity need to factor in?

That's just 1 example, of course, but a single, oft-injured WR shouldn't command that type of cap usage, imho.

I don't dislike Watson or minimize his value to the GB offense, just don't think he's worth what someone will be willing to pay.

Christian won't receive elite WR money because of his injury past and because GB runs the ball more than most teams. However, his value to this offense is pretty high as when he's off the field the offense turns into a constipated mess because there's no deep speed on this roster outside of Watson and his deep speed is elite in the NFL.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Christian won't receive elite WR money because of his injury past and because GB runs the ball more than most teams. However, his value to this offense is pretty high as when he's off the field the offense turns into a constipated mess because there's no deep speed on this roster outside of Watson and his deep speed is elite in the NFL.

While I don't think Christian will receive elite money, if he stays healthy, he will be paid very well and receive a large chunk of guaranteed cash. Whether the Packers are the team that decides to do that is up for debate. I hope they wait and see how he and their other WR's play in 2026. See if he stays healthy, see if they absolutely need him in 2027 or it would be prudent to just let him walk in Free Agency. There is always the option to try and trade him before the trade deadline, but I only see that being smart if the Packers are not looking like a playoff team.

 

[tynimiller]

Christian won't receive elite WR money because of his injury past and because GB runs the ball more than most teams. However, his value to this offense is pretty high as when he's off the field the offense turns into a constipated mess because there's no deep speed on this roster outside of Watson and his deep speed is elite in the NFL.

What is elite money in your opinion? If he signs now or during the first part of the season he will I’d bet he within 10% gross of what Alec Pierce got