Titans preseason studs/duds

[JK64]

This is Kizer's first year in MM's system. It's Hundley's 4th. Hundley has looked great in preseason before. I saw nothing new from the guy to indicate he'd be any better this year than he was last year. He still has absolutely no feel for the pocket.

I'm with you 100%. Hundley needs to go. I have seen enough. I know it's only one game but Boyle looked like the best passer out there and had better pocket presence, as well.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm with you 100%. Hundley needs to go. I have seen enough. I know it's only one game but Boyle looked like the best passer out there and had better pocket presence, as well.

Remember though, the same mistake may have been made with evaluating Hundley early in his career. Everyone remember when people were talking about him being great trade bait? Why? Because he looked pretty decent in preseason, playing against guys that weren't so good. Well now Hundley is seeing the field and going up against more talented guys and we saw the results last year as well, not as easy as it looks in preseason. Boyle on the other hand is seeing the lessor talented defensive players and like Hundley a few years ago, looks good.

Not say Hundley is worth keeping, but just trying to put a prospective on things when it comes to Boyle.

 

[JK64]

Dud -Rollins is showing a lot of rust and he better get it together in the next couple of games or he will be moving on.

Yeah, this guy is a big disappointment. He looked lost as usual. In fact, the starting defense looked basically the same as last year. Lost and confused. Pettine needs to step it up.

 

[JK64]

Remember though, the same mistake may have been made with evaluating Hundley early in his career. Everyone remember when people were talking about him being great trade bait? Well know Hundley is seeing the field and going up against more talented guys. Boyle on the other hand is seeing the lessor talented defensive players.

Not say Hundley is worth keeping, but just trying to put a prospective on things.

I think Boyle is the better passer. Don't forget Boyle was playing with a scrub oline and didn't have D. Adams to throw to. I agree, that we need to see more.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

According to Demovsky's snap counts at espn.com, Donnerson had only 7 snaps in getting that "elite" grade. Way too small of a sample, especially against bench competition, to make anything of it.

I can't say I noticed these guys except for one Thomas tackle, though the stat sheet at espn.com shows 3 solo tackles and a QB hit for what that's worth. In any case, it's better than a sharp stick in the eye.

I guess Donnerson forcing the fumble that Biegel recovered was the main reason he was graded that high.

I'm with you 100%. Hundley needs to go. I have seen enough. I know it's only one game but Boyle looked like the best passer out there and had better pocket presence, as well.

It seems Boyle has a stronger arm than both Hundley and Kizer but he has to make better decisions before moving ahead of either of them on the depth chart.

Yeah, this guy is a big disappointment. He looked lost as usual. In fact, the starting defense looked basically the same as last year. Lost and confused. Pettine needs to step it up.

Pertine pretty much played a vanilla scheme while several starters were either injured or rested. There's no need to panic.

 

[JK64]

It seems Boyle has a stronger arm than both Hundley and Kizer but he has to make better decisions before moving ahead of either of them on the depth chart.

I agree, but he's not far from it. Hundley and Kizer didn't exactly blow me away with their decision making. Three preseason games to go, so we will see. Hundley is a total waste of time, if you ask me. He should be cut.

Pertine pretty much played a vanilla scheme while several starters were either injured or rested. There's no need to panic.

You are right, but so far the defense looks like it did last year, giving up big plays and CBs out of position.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I agree, but he's not far from it. Hundley and Kizer didn't exactly blow me away with their decision making. Three preseason games to go, so we will see. Hundley is a total waste of time, if you ask me. He should be cut.

You are right, but so far the defense looks like it did last year, giving up big plays and CBs out of position.

I expect Kizer to win the backup job as well but Hundley was the one performing at the highest level out of the three quarterbacks while facing the most talented defenders.

There's no reason to panic about the defensive performance because of their play in the first preseason game with seven possible starters not even dressing.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I guess Donnerson forcing the fumble that Biegel recovered was the main reason he was graded that high.

Evidently.

If one were to 7-fold extrapolate those 7 snaps to a full boat 49 snaps, he forces 7 fumbles. Why not a 100.0% grade?

Seriously, out of curiosity I used this as a take off point in looking how PFF grades run defense.

PFF did a piece on O and D linemen grading recently where they explain their run game grading of each play on a -2.0 to +2.0 scale based on their perception of the player's assignment executiion, in line with traditional coach grading:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-how-we-grade-offensive-and-defensive-linemen

I did not find a similar piece on ILBs, but we get a glimpse at how they grade ILBs in the run game with an emphasis placed on run stop percentage. A run stop is defined as follows:

"A stop constitutes a ‘win’ for the defense or conversely a ‘loss’ for the offense. PFF describes a ‘stop’ further as an offensive gain on first down that is kept to less than 40 percent of the line to gain, less than 50 percent of the line to gain on second down and any third- or fourth-down play kept without a first down or touchdown."

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-pff-signature-statistics-a-glossary

That seems reasonable.

In the course of looking for their grading parameters, I stumbled across the following link:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-ilb-spotlight-top-5-in-pff-sig-stats

It's interesting to note that Jake Ryan was tied for 5th. in the league among ILBs in run stop percentage in their 2017 rankings whereas Martinez does not appear on the list.

There has been a tendency in these pages to view Ryan as "just a guy" or a bum. While his coverage skills have been disappointing, anybody with a focused eye didn't need to see this PFF ranking to know he was quite good against the run last season.

Even looking at blunt instrument statistics, courtesy of Football Outsiders, ESPN.com and PFF we find:

Martinez:

Overall 2017 PFF grade: 66.6 ("below average") https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/blake-martinez/10765
982 defensive snaps
96 solo tackle, 9.8% of snaps
48 assists, 4.9% of snaps
10 tackles for loss
1 forced fumble
8 passes defended
1 interception

Ryan:

Overall PFF grade: 75.7 ("average") https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/jake-ryan/9562
507 defensive snaps
52 solo tackles, 10.3% of snaps
29 assists, 5.7% of snaps
3 tackles for loss
1 forced fumble
0 passes defended
0 interceptions

While the general perception is that Martinez was the tackling machine last season (with his eye on 200 this season, LOL), it's worth noting Ryan had higher tackles per snap percentages in both solos and assists.

In terms of those overall grades, Ryan would benefit as a rotational player where his snaps were more limited to doing the things he does best (269 run snaps vs. 238 pass) whereas Martinez had to play to both his strenghts and weaknesses being a 3-down guy where the signal calling responsibility finally fell, out there playing to both his strenghs and weaknesses.

The PD and INT numbers notwithstanding, I think it is fair to say Martinez straying far from the line of scrimage in coverage is not a good look for him. He may have been better in downfield coverage than Ryan but not by much, ergo drafting Jones and then Burks. I don't know how Martinez's PFF grade broke down in run vs. pass, but I'd surmise Martinez's pass defense grade was poor.

Jusdging from this limited view of one preseason game, Burks is not a complete solution. The Ryan run defense role still needs to be filled unless Burks makes some startling jump in the run game as we move through the preseason. The loss of Ryan is not extraneous.

 

[JK64]

I expect Kizer to win the backup job as well but Hundley was the one performing at the highest level out of the three quarterbacks while facing the most talented defenders.

Hundley was performing at the highest level until he reverted to being Hundley. Look at the QB rating for the three qbs. Boyle was on top. So, start Boyle and see how he does.

 

[Dantés]

Yes, let's make decisions based on QB Rating in preseason games... what could go wrong?

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's interesting to note that Jake Ryan was tied for 5th. in the league among ILBs in run stop percentage in their 2017 rankings whereas Martinez does not appear on the list.

There has been a tendency in these pages to view Ryan as "just a guy" or a bum. While his coverage skills have been disappointing, anybody with a focused eye didn't need to see this PFF ranking to know he was quite good against the run last season.

Even looking at blunt instrument statistics, courtesy of Football Outsiders, ESPN.com and PFF we find:

Martinez:

Overall 2017 PFF grade: 66.6 ("below average") https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/blake-martinez/10765
982 defensive snaps
96 solo tackle, 9.8% of snaps
48 assists, 4.9% of snaps
10 tackles for loss
1 forced fumble
8 passes defended
1 interception

Ryan:

Overall PFF grade: 75.7 ("average") https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl/players/jake-ryan/9562
507 defensive snaps
52 solo tackles, 10.3% of snaps
29 assists, 5.7% of snaps
3 tackles for loss
1 forced fumble
0 passes defended
0 interceptions

While the general perception is that Martinez was the tackling machine last season (with his eye on 200 this season, LOL), it's worth noting Ryan had higher tackles per snap percentages in both solos and assists.

In terms of those overall grades, Ryan would benefit as a rotational player where his snaps were more limited to doing the things he does best (269 run snaps vs. 238 pass) whereas Martinez had to play to both his strenghts and weaknesses being a 3-down guy where the signal calling responsibility finally fell, out there playing to both his strenghs and weaknesses.

The PD and INT numbers notwithstanding, I think it is fair to say Martinez straying far from the line of scrimage in coverage is not a good look for him. He may have been better in downfield coverage than Ryan but not by much, ergo drafting Jones and then Burks. I don't know how Martinez's PFF grade broke down in run vs. pass, but I'd surmise Martinez's pass defense grade was poor.

Jusdging from this limited view of one preseason game, Burks is not a complete solution. The Ryan run defense role still needs to be filled unless Burks makes some startling jump in the run game as we move through the preseason. The loss of Ryan is not extraneous.

It's interesting to note that PFF had Martinez graded at 66.6 in 2017 on his player page while according to the article linked below they had him at 80.2 with him excelling defending the run (89.7) while struggling in coverage (44.0).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-schboert-martinez-look-to-take-next-step-in-2018

Hundley was performing at the highest level until he reverted to being Hundley. Look at the QB rating for the three qbs. Boyle was on top. So, start Boyle and see how he does.

While it's a terrible idea to evaluate quarterbacks based on their rating in preseason games you have to realize that Hundley would have had a 113.6 QB rating if not for an interception that wasn't his fault by any means.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It's interesting to note that PFF had Martinez graded at 66.6 in 2017 on his player page while according to the article linked below they had him at 80.2 with him excelling defending the run (89.7) while struggling in coverage (44.0).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-schboert-martinez-look-to-take-next-step-in-2018

That is interesting.

It is also interesting to note Martinez's 36 run stops compares with Ryan's 30, while Martinez had nearly double the snaps.

That coverage grade looks about right.

I would not be surprised if PFF's run / pass grade splits on Ryan were higher on the run and lower on the pass, with 4.5 points total separating them.

The point of my post was not to say Ryan was the better player, noting his snaps were limited and thereby playing to his strenghts whereas Martinez was at 93%.

My point was to illustrate that losing Ryan is not insignificant. And looking at Burks in this early going, the Packers will need to find a guy for run downs, an effective run-stopping 30+% snap guy to reproduce that 9th. ranked 3.9 yards per carry and 9th. ranked 10 rushing TDs against.

 

[Mondio]

For all the grief Hundley got last year, and most of it was well deserved, at a back up position, there was nothing wrong with his performance last week. 1 preseason game, I know, trust me, I know what that means. But he was the better of the QB's last week. We'll see what progress they've made and what opportunities they've created for themselves this week. I'm kind of excited by it. I guess I'm still expecting the days of back ups like Graham Harrell and BJ Coleman. Man those were some bad years at that position.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

My point was to illustrate that losing Ryan is not insignificant. And looking at Burks in this early going, the Packers will need to find a guy for run downs, an effective run-stopping 30+% snap guy to reproduce that 9th. ranked 3.9 yards per carry and 9th. ranked 10 rushing TDs against.

I agree the Packers will struggle to adequately replace Ryan as a run defender at inside linebacker. Hopefully their overall run defense will nevertheless be formidable with the defensive line having the talent to dominate.

 

[AmishMafia]

That is interesting.

It is also interesting to note Martinez's 36 run stops compares with Ryan's 30, while Martinez had nearly double the snaps.

That coverage grade looks about right.

I would not be surprised if PFF's run / pass grade splits on Ryan were higher on the run and lower on the pass, with 4.5 points total separating them.

The point of my post was not to say Ryan was the better player, noting his snaps were limited and thereby playing to his strenghts whereas Martinez was at 93%.

My point was to illustrate that losing Ryan is not insignificant. And looking at Burks in this early going, the Packers will need to find a guy for run downs, an effective run-stopping 30+% snap guy to reproduce that 9th. ranked 3.9 yards per carry and 9th. ranked 10 rushing TDs against.

Interesting stuff.

One thing to bear in mind is that Martinez and Ryan were used differently in different packages. Ryan isnt great in coverage so I could see where he was brought in on plays where a run was more likely. This would skew the stats because Ryan would have more opportunities for run tackles.

The eyeball test for me says Martinez is a better ILB but Ryan is much better than many fans seem to think.

 

[Mondio]

Ryan is good for what he does. He's limited. So is Martinez, but his limits are less. I'd rather have Martinez on the field regardless, he's the better LB'er overall. I'd say his run support is as good or better than Ryan's regardless of what ratings say. Responsibilities and the variability of his play calls play into those ratings where as I think Ryan's are much more limited in terms of what he's supposed to do and what types of situations he finds himself on the field.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I guess I'm still expecting the days of back ups like Graham Harrell and BJ Coleman. Man those were some bad years at that position.

Let's not forget Scott Tolzien. Or Seneca Wallace and Vince Young ever so briefly.

I'd take Hundley or Kizer over any of those guys, though from what we've seen so far that's cold comfort.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Interesting stuff.

One thing to bear in mind is that Martinez and Ryan were used differently in different packages. Ryan isnt great in coverage so I could see where he was brought in on plays where a run was more likely. This would skew the stats because Ryan would have more opportunities for run tackles.

I did keep that in mind. I said the same thing, twice, including the post you quoted, in that his lower snap count "played to his strengths".

 

[HardRightEdge]

Ryan is good for what he does. He's limited. So is Martinez, but his limits are less. I'd rather have Martinez on the field regardless, he's the better LB'er overall. I'd say his run support is as good or better than Ryan's regardless of what ratings say. Responsibilities and the variability of his play calls play into those ratings where as I think Ryan's are much more limited in terms of what he's supposed to do and what types of situations he finds himself on the field.

Yeah, if forced to choose between Martinez and Ryan, Martinez is the choice. But that wasn't the point of of my posts. The point was Ryan is not the bum some want to make him out be, he has situtational value that Burks does not bring, at least not yet and probably not this year, and somebody else is going to have to step up on run downs to maintain a top 10 run defense.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I agree the Packers will struggle to adequately replace Ryan as a run defender at inside linebacker. Hopefully their overall run defense will nevertheless be formidable with the defensive line having the talent to dominate.

Perhaps. I can see Daniels, Clark and Wilkerson out there together in base. Whether Wilkerson (or Adams for that matter) are upgrades over Lowry against the run remains to be seen. Lowry was pretty decent against the run last year. The main benefit is better depth that should keep snap counts manageable and keep the guys fresher longer.

What I'll be interested to see is whether Wilkerson rebounds under a lower snap count than the 80's and 90's percents, year after year, with the Jets. Or will we get the Raji result where dropping to the 60's percent seemed to do nothing to stem the decline?

 

[JK64]

It's interesting to note that PFF had Martinez graded at 66.6 in 2017 on his player page while according to the article linked below they had him at 80.2 with him excelling defending the run (89.7) while struggling in coverage (44.0).

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-schboert-martinez-look-to-take-next-step-in-2018



While it's a terrible idea to evaluate quarterbacks based on their rating in preseason games you have to realize that Hundley would have had a 113.6 QB rating if not for an interception that wasn't his fault by any means.

Give Boyle a chance with the first string and not with the guys Rodgers referred to as **** poor.

Passing
Player ATT COMP YDS COMP% YDS/ATT TD TD% INT INT% LONG SCK SCK/LOST RATE

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DeShone Kizer 18 9 134 50 7.4 0 0 0 0 51 2 9 74.8

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Tim Boyle 15 7 130 46.7 8.7 2 13.3 0 0 52 0 0 116.7

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Brett Hundley 14 9 108 64.3 7.7 1 7.1 1 7.1 48 1 7 81.8

 

[JK64]

Yes, let's make decisions based on QB Rating in preseason games... what could go wrong?

That's really all we have to go by, that and the eyeball test.

 

[Poppa San]

For all the grief Hundley got last year, and most of it was well deserved, at a back up position, there was nothing wrong with his performance last week. 1 preseason game, I know, trust me, I know what that means. But he was the better of the QB's last week. We'll see what progress they've made and what opportunities they've created for themselves this week. I'm kind of excited by it. I guess I'm still expecting the days of back ups like Graham Harrell and BJ Coleman. Man those were some bad years at that position.

From 3 years ago:

and for as much as Hundley showed, he still has room to improve and that's good. He was a bit slow to get rid of the ball. He missed several wide open receivers in his progressions, but was able to show his ability to extend plays and still make them. So good and bad all in one play. Well maybe not "bad", but shows room to grow. He's young, he will and I do think his potential is greater than Tolzien's, but that potential might be a year or 2 away yet.

Seems to have not progressed.

 

[HardRightEdge]

That's really all we have to go by, that and the eyeball test.

Eyeball test adjusting for level of competition. Tricky business, that.

 

[JK64]

Eyeball test adjusting for level of competition. Tricky business, that.

Well, that's all we have to go on. Until one of them is asked to come in for Rodgers. I've seen enough of Hundley.