The Rodgers to Rodgers Hail Mary in historical perspective.

[Packerlifer]

http://www.stack.com/a/was-aaron-rodgers-61-yard-hail-mary-the-longest-pass-through-the-air-in-football-history

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/158802394/packers-lions-longest-hail-mary-nfl-history

 

[Viper556]

How are they getting 61 yards? The replay seems to show that he was at the 36 yard line when he threw the ball. That's 64 yards to the end zone. Richard Ridgers was at least another 2 yards deep in the endzone when he caught it. That makes it about 66 yards minimum. At least that's how it looked to me.

 

[Voltron]

How are they getting 61 yards? The replay seems to show that he was at the 36 yard line when he threw the ball. That's 64 yards to the end zone. Richard Ridgers was at least another 2 yards deep in the endzone when he caught it. That makes it about 66 yards minimum. At least that's how it looked to me.

I think they only count it from scrimage line to endzone. But yes it was longer

 

[Deleted member 6794]

According to the NFL Network Rodgers ball travelled 63 yards in the air. He's the only QB to have completed a pass with more than 60 air yards since 2005, doing it twice over that period.

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BTW I really have a hard time believing a QB throwing an 85-yard ball in 1935.

 

[LarrysCrookedFinger]

According to the NFL Network Rodgers ball travelled 63 yards in the air. He's the only QB to have completed a pass with more than 60 air yards since 2005, doing it twice over that period.

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BTW I really have a hard time believing a QB throwing an 85-yard ball in 1935.

Anyone have a video link to the '09 play? I just don't remember it and I've seen every snap of Aaron's career.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Anyone have a video link to the '09 play? I just don't remember it and I've seen every snap of Aaron's career.

It's at the 11 minute mark of this video.

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[Poppa San]

So both passes were vs the Lions. Should play them more often. What was the Favre to Sharpe pass vs the Lions rated? It was cross field too IIRC.

 

[JBlood]

The most amazing thing about the 60+ yd completion is the liklihood of it succeeding (almost zero): http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/hail-mary-probabilities.html

 

[JBlood]

Which, of course, means we were lucky to win.

 

[AmishMafia]

Which, of course, means we were lucky to win.

No luck at all. It is our destiny!

 

[azrsx05]

It's at the 11 minute mark of this video.

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You know what I noticed from those videos that I thonk this year's guys are missing. The fire they played with. You can see receivers fighting for balls in the air, fighting for extra yards, diving. Something I have not seen from these receivers this year. They run their half *** routes and wait for the ball to get to them. YACs is what made this team scary in the past.

 

[OldSchool101]

You know what I noticed from those videos that I thonk this year's guys are missing. The fire they played with. You can see receivers fighting for balls in the air, fighting for extra yards, diving. Something I have not seen from these receivers this year. They run their half *** routes and wait for the ball to get to them. YACs is what made this team scary in the past.

Yes. Along with that and because of that, comes the extra caution Aaron employs in close coverage.

 

[LarrysCrookedFinger]

The most amazing thing about the 60+ yd completion is the liklihood of it succeeding (almost zero): http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2012/09/hail-mary-probabilities.html

Sample size?

 

[Half Empty]

"From the 2000 through 2011 seasons, there were 223 examples in total--a little over 20 per 10-yard bin of field position. The chart below plots the TD success rate in the sample."

 

[Poppa San]

"From the 2000 through 2011 seasons, there were 223 examples in total--a little over 20 per 10-yard bin of field position. The chart below plots the TD success rate in the sample."

You're implying as many 90+ yard hail mary attempts as 10 yarders. That is how I read the link. I think the sample size over 60 yards in those years is quite small. Off the top of my head I can think of 4 qb's that could throw it that far.

 

[Half Empty]

Actually, I wasn't implying anything, just quoting. However, forced to go back and look a little, there are all sorts of huh? components. First, it's an article about Hail Mary passes, and I think of those as "throw it a long way to the end zone and see if one of our guys can come down with it" plays - implicit in that is not really having it planned out. Therefore, I'd eliminate (certainly) any plays from inside the 10 (or maybe even) the 20 - there are plays designed with routes and blocking to attempt picking up that yardage. Those, to me are just the last play of the game, not Hail Marys.

Next, the percentages almost disappear outside the 40, which pretty much is as expected, but the 71-80 range has a success rate of nearly 5%, which means at least 20 tries - seems way high, unless they're again counting the last play as a Hail Mary and there have been a significant number of those.

So, as with most things sports, and most things statistical, we need a lot more information