The Jordan Love Era Begins

Will Jordan Love be 3 in a row for the Packers?

  • Yes, he's a FHOF Player

    Votes: 4 5.8%
  • He'll be pro bowl good but not FHOF good

    Votes: 20 29.0%
  • He'll be average

    Votes: 12 17.4%
  • No, he'll be a below average bust

    Votes: 4 5.8%
  • Too early to Tell

    Votes: 29 42.0%

  • Total voters
    69
  • This poll will close: .

GleefulGary

Cheesehead
Joined
Sep 9, 2017
Messages
5,012
Reaction score
505
While I whole heartedly agree with your logic there...it doesn't work in all cases. 99 billion served at McDonald's certainly doesn't mean its good food

But qb wins isn't a useless stat. Its similar to pitcher wins in baseball. Yes Aaron Rodgers went 6 and 10 in his first year as a starter. And qb wins didnt mean sht cuz you could see that the qb did enough to win but the rest of the team didnt. Over a larger sample size, what happened? Rodgers qb win/loss record improved dramatically which coincided with him becoming one of the greatest to ever play the game
It’s largely useless. Over time, as a volume stat, it can show more value, but in general, meh.

Matthew Stafford, Trent Dilfer, Eli Manning, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert could all be examples of how QB wins can understate and overrate a QB.

The Eagles won more than the Chargers. Is any logical person taking Jalen Hurts over Herbert? I sure wouldn’t. Stafford was viewed as a loser before he went to the Rams. He was the same QB there as he was in Detroit but with a better coach and talent around him, but now people view him as an elite QB who can win games. He was always that guy, just stuck on a crap team. Even Jared Goff! Couldn’t do crap under Fisher, solid with McVay, been good with Detroit, but is anybody taking him over Herbert? I doubt it.
 

Half Empty

Cheesehead
Joined
Oct 29, 2014
Messages
4,473
Reaction score
604
It’s largely useless. Over time, as a volume stat, it can show more value, but in general, meh.

Matthew Stafford, Trent Dilfer, Eli Manning, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert could all be examples of how QB wins can understate and overrate a QB.

The Eagles won more than the Chargers. Is any logical person taking Jalen Hurts over Herbert? I sure wouldn’t. Stafford was viewed as a loser before he went to the Rams. He was the same QB there as he was in Detroit but with a better coach and talent around him, but now people view him as an elite QB who can win games. He was always that guy, just stuck on a crap team. Even Jared Goff! Couldn’t do crap under Fisher, solid with McVay, been good with Detroit, but is anybody taking him over Herbert? I doubt it.
Probably why several folks have said
Definitely don't think it's a useless stat, it just doesn't exist in a vaccuum.
 
OP
OP
thequick12

thequick12

Cheesehead
Joined
Feb 17, 2014
Messages
3,154
Reaction score
576
It’s largely useless. Over time, as a volume stat, it can show more value, but in general, meh.

Matthew Stafford, Trent Dilfer, Eli Manning, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert could all be examples of how QB wins can understate and overrate a QB.

The Eagles won more than the Chargers. Is any logical person taking Jalen Hurts over Herbert? I sure wouldn’t. Stafford was viewed as a loser before he went to the Rams. He was the same QB there as he was in Detroit but with a better coach and talent around him, but now people view him as an elite QB who can win games. He was always that guy, just stuck on a crap team. Even Jared Goff! Couldn’t do crap under Fisher, solid with McVay, been good with Detroit, but is anybody taking him over Herbert? I doubt it.

Herbert will end up with more wins in the long run I'll bet

Stafford was considered to be an above average qb while in Detroit
 

rmontro

Cheesehead
Joined
Feb 8, 2017
Messages
4,614
Reaction score
1,286
What about Brady versus Rodgers? Rodgers had better stats, but was he the better quarterback? I used to think so, but I'm not so sure anymore. I think Brady was more clutch, give him the ball on one last drive in a big game. He seemed to have some sort of intangible that made him a great leader, and made guys want to play for him. And I know he had the benefit of Belichick's defenses, but it's hard to fault a guy with seven rings. I mean, that's so insane, it's like it's not even possible.
 

shockerx

Cheesehead
Joined
Oct 11, 2010
Messages
304
Reaction score
91
Well now that its been over a week, I thought about J Love and where I hope he can improve in 24. The eye test for me was two things. First in Playoff football...from the Bears game forward i would of liked to see Love use his feet more to get out of jams. He is very athletic and could be a key chain mover in critical moments. Look at early Rodgers he extended drives many times when you had to have it. Another was Purdy killing the Lions late with scampers. I think year two of Love we will see more of this. Second Love's deep ball, overall it looks to me he has to go a tick sooner and or take a little bit of rainbow out of it. to many times guys had to slow up or jump ball the catch. I cant even think of one in stride catch deep for a TD....maybe wrong there. I think year two with the WR this works better too.
 
OP
OP
thequick12

thequick12

Cheesehead
Joined
Feb 17, 2014
Messages
3,154
Reaction score
576
I liked this...
 

Attachments

  • RDT_20240204_061654840354747507776651.png
    RDT_20240204_061654840354747507776651.png
    819.2 KB · Views: 29

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,197
Reaction score
7,974
Location
Madison, WI

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,197
Reaction score
7,974
Location
Madison, WI
Has this crossed anyone's mind, besides mine? So Jordan had what I would call a much better than expected 1st year as a starter. I expect his experience as a starter and a whole offseason to study and improve, is going to make him even better in year 2. On the flipside, I would expect opposing DC's to have a lot of game film on Jordan and might be able to figure out better ways to defend him. I guess this is where MLF comes in and makes sure that Jordan isn't predictable and is fixing any mistakes that DC's might prey on.

Fingers crossed that 2023 was Jordan's least productive season and he just keeps getting better, while DC's scratch their heads, trying to figure out how to defend against him.
 

gopkrs

Cheesehead
Joined
May 12, 2014
Messages
5,371
Reaction score
1,274
Has this crossed anyone's mind, besides mine? So Jordan had what I would call a much better than expected 1st year as a starter. I expect his experience as a starter and a whole offseason to study and improve, is going to make him even better in year 2. On the flipside, I would expect opposing DC's to have a lot of game film on Jordan and might be able to figure out better ways to defend him. I guess this is where MLF comes in and makes sure that Jordan isn't predictable and is fixing any mistakes that DC's might prey on.

Fingers crossed that 2023 was Jordan's least productive season and he just keeps getting better, while DC's scratch their heads, trying to figure out how to defend against him.
I agree that that is where MLF comes in. Love is capable of throwing the ball accurately and I expect him to do just that. And maybe learn to run a bit more. $50M per year? Only in today's world imho. I hope he never misses an easy throw again like the one he did to A. Jones in the 4th quarter. We're riding his coattails now. I do think we need to give him help on the O line this off season.
 

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,197
Reaction score
7,974
Location
Madison, WI
I agree that that is where MLF comes in. Love is capable of throwing the ball accurately and I expect him to do just that. And maybe learn to run a bit more. $50M per year? Only in today's world imho. I hope he never misses an easy throw again like the one he did to A. Jones in the 4th quarter. We're riding his coattails now. I do think we need to give him help on the O line this off season.
My thoughts exactly. Too many times where Jordan could have tucked the ball and picked up some yardage, instead of throwing a bad pass or throwing it away.

The Packers are no doubt in a "tough spot" when it comes to Jordans contract. No doubt they want to keep him and pay him what he is worth, but after just 1 year, committing that kind of money ($50M/year) and guarantees, is just "NFL lunacy" at a high level.
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
13,907
Reaction score
4,864
I don't see it too tough...you have to pay him and essentially you have to hook your fiscal wagon to it for two years minimum. Pay the man $50M a year on a three year deal you guarantee only $115M of it or 76% of it which is a similar percentage to many....as you add years you lower that guaranteed amount. Personally I predict a four year extension (which makes it essentially like a five year and about 66% of it guaranteed).

So around $210M on the next four years...around $140M guaranteed...which would make it impossible to part until after 2025 season, and even then it'd be a costly walk away but a small savings.
 

gopkrs

Cheesehead
Joined
May 12, 2014
Messages
5,371
Reaction score
1,274
I don't see it too tough...you have to pay him and essentially you have to hook your fiscal wagon to it for two years minimum. Pay the man $50M a year on a three year deal you guarantee only $115M of it or 76% of it which is a similar percentage to many....as you add years you lower that guaranteed amount. Personally I predict a four year extension (which makes it essentially like a five year and about 66% of it guaranteed).

So around $210M on the next four years...around $140M guaranteed...which would make it impossible to part until after 2025 season, and even then it'd be a costly walk away but a small savings.
No, not so hard. Luckily it's just play money and if it doesn't work out ala Daniel Jones; we just look for another QB like the Giants are. No problem. I've got confidence in Love and I know we have to do it some way. Just that nothing is certain. Especially after only 1 year of starting and less than half a year of playing very well.
 

milani

Cheesehead
Joined
Jun 11, 2012
Messages
4,188
Reaction score
1,506
Has this crossed anyone's mind, besides mine? So Jordan had what I would call a much better than expected 1st year as a starter. I expect his experience as a starter and a whole offseason to study and improve, is going to make him even better in year 2. On the flipside, I would expect opposing DC's to have a lot of game film on Jordan and might be able to figure out better ways to defend him. I guess this is where MLF comes in and makes sure that Jordan isn't predictable and is fixing any mistakes that DC's might prey on.

Fingers crossed that 2023 was Jordan's least productive season and he just keeps getting better, while DC's scratch their heads, trying to figure out how to defend against him.
A lot of other 1st and 2nd year players on offense getting equivocally improved will alleviate his task and continue to make it difficult for opposing Ds.
 

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,197
Reaction score
7,974
Location
Madison, WI
Whatever contract he gets, it's going to look like a bargain two or three years from now.
Obviously, as a Packer fan, I hope that is the case. All I am saying is that this isn't a contract that has a ton of playing time to support the numbers. It's more of a leap of faith, that the Jordan Love that played well in the last half of the season, is the future. Not the Jordan Love we saw against teams like the Raiders, Broncos, Saints and Lions (Game 1).
 

Poppa San

* Team Owner *
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Aug 29, 2010
Messages
12,838
Reaction score
2,749
Location
20 miles from Lambeau
Obviously, as a Packer fan, I hope that is the case. All I am saying is that this isn't a contract that has a ton of playing time to support the numbers. It's more of a leap of faith, that the Jordan Love that played well in the last half of the season, is the future. Not the Jordan Love we saw against teams like the Raiders, Broncos, Saints and Lions (Game 1).
Wasn't AR12's first extension also a leap of faith in that he was given 5 years during 2008?
 

tynimiller

Cheesehead
Joined
May 2, 2012
Messages
13,907
Reaction score
4,864
Wasn't AR12's first extension also a leap of faith in that he was given 5 years during 2008?

Absolutely. Personally I really think we have a four year extension (on top of 2024) coming. Provides the most flexibility to use 2024 as a little bit of a guaranteed money shave off depending on what all other fiscal shuffling does.
 

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,197
Reaction score
7,974
Location
Madison, WI
Wasn't AR12's first extension also a leap of faith in that he was given 5 years during 2008?
Yup. It was a six-year, $65 million extension that made him the NFL’s fourth-highest paid quarterback. I believe it carried a $20M guarantee. So in todays numbers, probably not all that much different than what the Packers face with Love.

I am not questioning if the Packers should or shouldn't do it, I think they pretty much have to. What I was pointing out was the ridiculous nature of the NFL and contract guarantees. In the case of Love and yes, Rodgers back in 2008, laying this kind of money out, on an unsure thing. I understand that a guy can get injured and never play again, but the frequency and odds of that happening? Also, are they insuring if that happens, that he will have enough money to not have to work again? Seems like they are now insuring that he, his family and 20 others are set for a life of luxury if he stops playing football, injured or not.

EDIT: Had to add, that Rodgers contract in 2008 was done on Halloween. Sort of fitting, based on what happened in his final years in Green Bay.
 

rmontro

Cheesehead
Joined
Feb 8, 2017
Messages
4,614
Reaction score
1,286
I'm mostly concerned that we'll be paying Love so much we won't be able to fill in the other pieces needed to compete at the top level. Basically the same situation we were in with Rodgers. I'm more worried about that, than the prospect that Love won't be any good.
 

Pokerbrat2000

Opinions are like A-holes, we all have one.
Joined
Oct 30, 2012
Messages
32,197
Reaction score
7,974
Location
Madison, WI
I'm mostly concerned that we'll be paying Love so much we won't be able to fill in the other pieces needed to compete at the top level. Basically the same situation we were in with Rodgers. I'm more worried about that, than the prospect that Love won't be any good.
I can think of much worse problems. Let's face it, the teams that have an above average QB, are typically paying a lot more for him and also, hopefully winning more games than they are losing. I can think of an exception and that is the 49'ers with Mr. Irrelevant, Brock Purdy. However, if he continues to play well, it won't be long before they are paying big bucks for his services too.

The worst problem is paying a guy like Daniel Jones $40M/year and finding out he isn't a very good QB. So I don't mind the Packers paying Love, if he earns it.

If Gute nailed the Jordan Love pick with a late 1st round selection and he ends up with a big contract and earns it, that is the "best problem" that an NFL team can have.

Finally, I have to point out a team like the Bears, they keep throwing high first round picks at QB's, which also is a big rookie salary, and still suck.
 

Members online

Latest posts

Top