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NOMOFO

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I know I did not hear from you. Someone (not you) will also tell me I'm nuts when I say the following: When Orton is clicking as in these past few weeks and when Jackson and Spiller are on the field, the Bills exhibit the best run/pass balance on offense and defense taken together of any team in the league. It makes them dangerous because there are no clear weaknesses to exploit; getting the running backs back on the field will be pivotal.

I think Kyle Orton is more than capable of taking a team to the playoffs if there's great talent around him. I think there are probably 15 QBs I would much less have as my starting QB.

Spiller? Again...what? The guy is one of the biggest disappointment of high draft picks of recent history. For God's sake, we got more value out of AJ Hawk as the 5th and that's really not saying much!

THIS is C-R-A-Z-Y: "Spiller are on the field, the Bills exhibit the best run/pass balance on offense and defense taken together of any team in the league."

Do you really believe that the combo of Orton/Spiller and Jackson strikes fear in ANY defensive coordinators in the NFL?

I'm starting to think you are just messing with us. Are you messing with us? You have to be.
 
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HardRightEdge

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Do you really believe that the combo of Orton/Spiller and Jackson strikes fear in ANY defensive coordinators in the NFL?

I'm starting to think you are just messing with us. Are you messing with us? You have to be.
Add Watkins, Woods and Chandler and a defense that is equally effective against the run and the pass. Whether there's anything there to strike fear in anybody's heart is irrelevant; it represents a lot of decent pieces to account for and no particular weakness to exploit. Balance.

The quote was "Jackson and Spiller". Regardless, when healthy (which has frequently not been the case), Spiller is a weapon. A. J. Hawk has been the league leader in reliably mediocre play, I'll grant you that. Sadly, he'll never have seasons like Spiller had in 2012 and 2013:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/13203/cj-spiller

As I predicted, someone would tell me I'm nuts. Truth be told I had you in mind. You did not disappoint.
 
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NOMOFO

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Add Watkins, Woods and Chandler and a defense that is equally effective against the run and the pass. Whether there's anything there to strike fear in anybody's heart is irrelevant; it represents a lot of decent pieces to account for and no particular weakness to exploit. Balance.

The quote was "Jackson and Spiller". Regardless, when healthy (which has frequently not been the case), Spiller is a weapon. A. J. Hawk has been the league leader in reliably mediocre play, I'll grant you that. Sadly, he'll never have seasons like Spiller had in 2012 and 2013:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/13203/cj-spiller

As I predicted, someone would tell me I'm nuts. Truth be told I had you in mind. You did not disappoint.

I didn't even question your opinion of the defense. I commented on "When Orton is clicking as in these past few weeks and when Jackson and Spiller are on the field, the Bills exhibit the best run/pass balance on offense and defense taken together of any team in the league".

I would call that offensive trio "serviceable". Spiller was showing signs of life but AGAIN... why is it that we're so damn quick to anoint guys after a couple decent games in row even if they have several seasons of very non- spectacular play?
 
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HardRightEdge

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I didn't even question your opinion of the defense. I commented on "When Orton is clicking as in these past few weeks and when Jackson and Spiller are on the field, the Bills exhibit the best run/pass balance on offense and defense taken together of any team in the league".

I would call that offensive trio "serviceable". Spiller was showing signs of life but AGAIN... why is it that we're so damn quick to anoint guys after a couple decent games in row even if they have several seasons of very non- spectacular play?
I know what you said, but run/pass balance when the offense and defense are taken together is what I said.

While Woods is serviceable as a possession receiver, Chandler grades a bit higher than that and Watkins is a talent worthy of his draft position. Jackson's also a weapon in the passing game.

I would point out that I'm not "anointing" anybody. I'm pointing out why a 5-3 team surviving a failed QB might be a tough game on the road. Does everything need to be a talk radio hyperbole?

By the way, I would not call Spiller's 2012 season (6.0 yds. per carry, 1,700 yds. from scrimage) "showing signs of life". When healthy he's a legit threat, and when both he and Jackson are healthy it's as good a change of pace tandem as you'll find.
 
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Deleted member 6794

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Spiller? Again...what? The guy is one of the biggest disappointment of high draft picks of recent history. For God's sake, we got more value out of AJ Hawk as the 5th and that's really not saying much!

Spiller has been a pretty productive RB when being healthy. Since he was drafted in 2010 he is second in the league in yards per attempt (minimum 500 attempts). The problem with him has been injury related.
 

PikeBadger

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I'm definitely not completely sold on either Detroit or Buffalo. The NFL in November and December is a different animal than the first half of season. Watch the injury reports closely. Some coaches are better than others at patching holes and adapting to changing circumstances, and exploiting opponents deficiencies. Detroit and Buffalo may not have what it takes to do that. Show me, I say.
 
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I'm definitely not completely sold on either Detroit or Buffalo. The NFL in November and December is a different animal than the first half of season. Watch the injury reports closely. Some coaches are better than others at patching holes and adapting to changing circumstances, and exploiting opponents deficiencies. Detroit and Buffalo may not have what it takes to do that. Show me, I say.

I don´t think Kyle Orton will lead Buffalo to the playoffs. The way they´re build they´re capable of providing some trouble for the Packers though.
 

NOMOFO

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I know what you said, but run/pass balance when the offense and defense are taken together is what I said.

While Woods is serviceable as a possession receiver, Chandler grades a bit higher than that and Watkins is a talent worthy of his draft position. Jackson's also a weapon in the passing game.

I would point out that I'm not "anointing" anybody. I'm pointing out why a 5-3 team surviving a failed QB might be a tough game on the road. Does everything need to be a talk radio hyperbole?

By the way, I would not call Spiller's 2012 season (6.0 yds. per carry, 1,700 yds. from scrimage) "showing signs of life". When healthy he's a legit threat, and when both he and Jackson are healthy it's as good a change of pace tandem as you'll find.

No, quite the opposite. In fact that's exactly my point. So many opinions come from nothing but the latest news on these guys and complete say nothing hyperbole. Facts are facts and history repeats itself but we constantly want to fight that and ignore that.

Let me ask you this. If I was to ask 100 pro-football execs to rate Spillers career to date from 1-10, what do you think the average would be? I would say the average would be about 5 and maybe less. Not exactly very good for a guy drafted that high.

...if you have to include the "ya butt" s you just prove my point. It's always the same. "ya butt, Spiller has often been injured". Whatever. He's hurt and it'll go down as yet another disappointing season for a very high pick.
 

NOMOFO

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Spiller has been a pretty productive RB when being healthy. Since he was drafted in 2010 he is second in the league in yards per attempt (minimum 500 attempts). The problem with him has been injury related.

So was Marcus Allen...so will you be picking the Raiders to go to the super bowl this year?
 

NOMOFO

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I've always considered Fred Jackson to be seriously underrated.

By what standard of measure? He's been in the league for 7 seasons and has what to show for it? It's the same exact type of debate as with Spiller..."Ya butt...if he was healthy...." Ya butt...4 plus yards per carry...."

Forget the ya butts... take a look at his total yards and his career and he is who he is. Just my opinion.

He's also a guy that perennially is over-rated in fantasy football.
 
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So was Marcus Allen...so will you be picking the Raiders to go to the super bowl this year?

:speechless::speechless::speechless: In addition to being completely wrong this is the one of the most stupid responses I´ve ever seen on this forum. As HRE mentioned earlier it´s not a surprise it´s coming from you. Once again it took only several weeks (after you disappeared for several months - what a great time around here) that more and more posters just get tired of you.
 

MichiganSportsTalk

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I'm definitely not completely sold on either Detroit or Buffalo. The NFL in November and December is a different animal than the first half of season. Watch the injury reports closely. Some coaches are better than others at patching holes and adapting to changing circumstances, and exploiting opponents deficiencies. Detroit and Buffalo may not have what it takes to do that. Show me, I say.

Well, Detroit is 6-2 with Calvin Johnson being hurt the majority of the season. In fact, Detroit is 4-1 while Johnson was hurt, 3-0 when he didn't play at all. That wouldn't have happened last year. On top of Johnson, they've had a rotating door of players not being in games. Reggie Bush, Joseph Fauria, Brandon Pettigrew, Eric Ebron, Joique Bell, Theo Rid**** and LaAdrian Waddle have all missed multiple games this year, sometimes all at once. In Atlanta, they were without Johnson, Bush, Fauria, Pettigrew, Ebron and Waddle on offense, and without Mosley and Fairley (left in the 2nd quarter) on defense. It was almost the same the prior week against New Orleans. They weren't pretty by any means, but they found ways to win.

They get back Johnson, Bush, Fauria, Ebron, Waddle, Mosley and possibly Pettigrew coming off a bye week. They are rested and healthy. The pieces are there for them to succeed, I just hope they do.
 

NOMOFO

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:speechless::speechless::speechless: In addition to being completely wrong this is the one of the most stupid responses I´ve ever seen on this forum. As HRE mentioned earlier it´s not a surprise it´s coming from you. Once again it took only several weeks (after you disappeared for several months - what a great time around here) that more and more posters just get tired of you.

...actually... when you are proven wrong THIS is what happens. Start the personal attacks.

Clearly you are about as dynamic thinking as a toad so I need to explain ...The point is...if a guy isn't on the field how exactly can he help his team? Marcus Allen has about as much impact on the Raiders outcome as Spiller does for the Bills!

Who else would consider Greg Olson some sort of stud that people should be frightened to play? lol ... hey... how many catches and total yards has he had the past 2 weeks? You are EXACTLY the type of guy that finishes dead last every year in fantasy football because you bet on guys like Greg Olson to be something they're not.
 
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...actually... when you are proven wrong THIS is what happens. Start the personal attacks.

See, that´s the problem with you. You´ve never proven anyone wrong with FACTS nor do I expect you will ever be able to do it.
 

NOMOFO

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See, that´s the problem with you. You´ve never proven anyone wrong with FACTS nor do I expect you will ever be able to do it.

...as usual... in your last post you started getting personal rather than just attempt to back your opinions, no matter how uninformed they are. Why exactly do you do that? Is it a defense mechanism knowing that now the mods will shut this down? Kind of like a lizard the loses it's tail rather than getting eaten whole? Why can't you stick to debate so that the mods don't have to get in the middle?

hmmmmmmmm...wonder why.
 
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...as usual... in your last post you started getting personal rather than just attempt to back your opinions, no matter how uninformed they are. Why exactly do you do that? Is it a defense mechanism knowing that now the mods will shut this down? Kind of like a lizard the loses it's tail rather than getting eaten whole? Why can't you stick to debate so that the mods don't have to get in the middle?

hmmmmmmmm...wonder why.

You really don't get what is wrong with your response on my take of Spiller???

First of all it's substantially wrong (which doesn't surprise me anymore, coming from you). And most importantly what does Marcus Allen have to do with Spiller???

In addition I've never said the Bills will win the Super Bowl but that they will be a tough matchup for the Packers. Why put words in my mouth???

If you think my opinion is uninformed give it a try and prove me wrong with facts. Something you haven't been able to in a single of your 964 posts.
 
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HardRightEdge

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No, quite the opposite. In fact that's exactly my point. So many opinions come from nothing but the latest news on these guys and complete say nothing hyperbole. Facts are facts and history repeats itself but we constantly want to fight that and ignore that.

Let me ask you this. If I was to ask 100 pro-football execs to rate Spillers career to date from 1-10, what do you think the average would be? I would say the average would be about 5 and maybe less. Not exactly very good for a guy drafted that high.

...if you have to include the "ya butt" s you just prove my point. It's always the same. "ya butt, Spiller has often been injured". Whatever. He's hurt and it'll go down as yet another disappointing season for a very high pick.
What pro football execs think of Spiller based on his durability is irrelevant. What's relevant is whether he's healthy to play against the Packers and whether the Bills are still playing for something at that juncture.

The "serviceable" (as you put it) Sammy Watkins (AFC offensive rookie of the month for October) pulled a groin on Wednesday and did not practice yesterday. It looks like Jackson will play but will not be 100%. Orton will be short on skill players this week, which is not good look for him; they'll need a big defensive effort to beat KC.

As for history repeating itself (more like it rhymes rather than repeats), this season is shaping up to confound those expectations to one degree or another. There's an unusual number of chronic doormats and chronic underachievers sitting in playoff contention...Detroit, Cleveland, Miami, Dallas, Buffalo. History would also suggest Arizona should not be sitting in first place. KC is in only the second year of resurrection. What do all those teams have in common? They're all in the top 9 in points surrendered. That's a meaningful reality not disclosed by history.
 

NOMOFO

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What pro football execs think of Spiller based on his durability is irrelevant. What's relevant is whether he's healthy to play against the Packers and whether the Bills are still playing for something at that juncture.

The "serviceable" (as you put it) Sammy Watkins (AFC offensive rookie of the month for October) pulled a groin on Wednesday and did not practice yesterday. It looks like Jackson will play but will not be 100%. Orton will be short on skill players this week, which is not good look for him; they'll need a big defensive effort to beat KC.

As for history repeating itself (more like it rhymes rather than repeats), this season is shaping up to confound those expectations to one degree or another. There's an unusual number of chronic doormats and chronic underachievers sitting in playoff contention...Detroit, Cleveland, Miami, Dallas, Buffalo. History would also suggest Arizona should not be sitting in first place. KC is in only the second year of resurrection. What do all those teams have in common? They're all in the top 9 in points surrendered. That's a meaningful reality not disclosed by history.

Can't you just answer the simple question? If I was to ask 100 pro-football execs to rate Spillers career to date from 1-10, what do you think the average would be?
 
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HardRightEdge

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Can't you just answer the simple question? If I was to ask 100 pro-football execs to rate Spillers career to date from 1-10, what do you think the average would be?
I answered you already. Your question is irrelevant to the bigger issue, it's out of context and, not to put too fine a point on it, prone to fickleness.

I'll demonstrate that for you.

If you asked them after 2011, his second season, they would have said it's hard to tell since he was a change-of-pace sub for Fred Jackson who went for 927 and 934 yds. those two seasons on about 200 carries per year. Since GMs don't watch much film of players they don't have to face or who are not up for free agency in the next off season, I imagine, if pressed, they would have given him a 3.

Fast forward to 2012. Wow. What a season. 9 for sure. Buffalo is getting top value on that pick after all. Of course, Jackson was hurt and only got 115 carries so Spiller was the feature back instead of sharing time with another go-to guy.

Jump to 2013. Jackson's back to 206 carries for 890 yds. Spiller gets 202 for 933 and 4.6 yds per carry and 33 catches for 185. Quite comparable to the Packers offensive rookie of the year. Spiller doesn't score many TDs because Jackson is their go-to guy in the red zone and, simply put, the passing offense is pretty bad thereby limiting red zone opportunities. GMs don't know what to grade him; they're too busy wondering what the Bills are doing with a dual-feature-back setup from a bygone era. If pressed, they'd look at the numbers and give him a 6.5.

As far as injuries go, you might have noticed Spiller hasn't missed many games in his career. That's because unlike a guy like Starks who doesn't take the field unless he's 100%, Spiller has played through knee sprains though not this week. That's not to say he won't be back to full strength in week 15, which is what this is all about...or what it should be about.

Further, as the years tick by, group think among the GM ranks increasingly tells you that no running back provides value in the first round, whether it's true or not. The fact of the matter is given the number of productive and durable backs coming out of the mid-to-lower rounds, if pressed for honesty they'd tell you the state-of-the-art in scouting is poor in projecting who will be a productive and durable ball carrier and who will not, so they avoid the risk altogether.

So the question is...will Spiller be 100% against the Packers and will Orton have his other weapons back in the lineup? I don't care what GMs might think about that.
 
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H

HardRightEdge

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Can't you just answer the simple question? If I was to ask 100 pro-football execs to rate Spillers career to date from 1-10, what do you think the average would be?
If you didn't like the previous response, try this one on for size.

How do you think GMs rate Peppers this season relative to his nearly $8.5 mil per year contract? Maybe a 4 or 5. It's near Pro Bowl money for something less than Pro Bowl performance.

That assessment is, however, irrelevant.

Peppers was one of the few viable options for immediate help at 3-4 OLB. There was cap space that was not going to be used elsewhere. He's probably the front 7's MVP for the first half of the season. As bad as these front 7 experiments have looked, which likely have the players as confused as the fans, Peppers has been a play maker in a unit not making many plays. Nobody will characterize him as stout in holding the edge in the run game, but he does everything else at a good-to-very-good level.

Isolate his play vs. his contract, out of the context of the team, and the conclusion is "meh". But would anybody who watches this team week in and week out take back that signing? No, they would not.
 

NOMOFO

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I answered you already. Your question is irrelevant to the bigger issue, it's out of context and, not to put too fine a point on it, prone to fickleness.

I'll demonstrate that for you.

If you asked them after 2011, his second season, they would have said it's hard to tell since he was a change-of-pace sub for Fred Jackson who went for 927 and 934 yds. those two seasons on about 200 carries per year. Since GMs don't watch much film of players they don't have to face or who are not up for free agency in the next off season, I imagine, if pressed, they would have given him a 3.

Fast forward to 2012. Wow. What a season. 9 for sure. Buffalo is getting top value on that pick after all. Of course, Jackson was hurt and only got 115 carries so Spiller was the feature back instead of sharing time with another go-to guy.

Jump to 2013. Jackson's back to 206 carries for 890 yds. Spiller gets 202 for 933 and 4.6 yds per carry and 33 catches for 185. Quite comparable to the Packers offensive rookie of the year. Spiller doesn't score many TDs because Jackson is their go-to guy in the red zone and, simply put, the passing offense is pretty bad thereby limiting red zone opportunities. GMs don't know what to grade him; they're too busy wondering what the Bills are doing with a dual-feature-back setup from a bygone era. If pressed, they'd look at the numbers and give him a 6.5.

As far as injuries go, you might have noticed Spiller hasn't missed many games in his career. That's because unlike a guy like Starks who doesn't take the field unless he's 100%, Spiller has played through knee sprains though not this week. That's not to say he won't be back to full strength in week 15, which is what this is all about...or what it should be about.

Further, as the years tick by, group think among the GM ranks increasingly tells you that no running back provides value in the first round, whether it's true or not. The fact of the matter is given the number of productive and durable backs coming out of the mid-to-lower rounds, if pressed for honesty they'd tell you the state-of-the-art in scouting is poor in projecting who will be a productive and durable ball carrier and who will not, so they avoid the risk altogether.

So the question is...will Spiller be 100% against the Packers and will Orton have his other weapons back in the lineup? I don't care what GMs might think about that.

If that's your "question"... that's fine. That's not where this debate started. I also never even mentioned anything about contracts or actual value or anything like that so I have no clue why you would go down that road.

My point is simple. It's the exact same point I made for the past 2 seasons now about that vaunted Bears "offense" (and I use that term loosely) that many wanted to tell us would be amazingly unstoppable. A few good games does not a player make. A few good games does not a great offense make.

CJ Spiller is CJ Spiller as Jay is Jay.
 
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HardRightEdge

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If that's your "question"... that's fine. That's not where this debate started. I also never even mentioned anything about contracts or actual value or anything like that so I have no clue why you would go down that road.

My point is simple. It's the exact same point I made for the past 2 seasons now about that vaunted Bears "offense" (and I use that term loosely) that many wanted to tell us would be amazingly unstoppable. A few good games does not a player make. A few good games does not a great offense make.

CJ Spiller is CJ Spiller as Jay is Jay.
Remind me...where did this debate "start"? It certainly had nothing to do with me praising Cutler, now or in the past. Conflating Spiller and Cutler is a straw man.

Getting back to where this debate (if we can call it that) began, the Bills played punishing, smothering defense with the exception of the two KC TDs you saw in the highlights which were misdirection against an injury replacement DE who did not hold his edge. Who would have thought the Bills losing Jarius Wynn might have been the difference in the game, a guy who's key virtue with the Packers was his edge holding? Regardless, the Bills key problem was getting only 6 points on 4 trips to the red zone, and at the end Orton going 0-4 from the 15, with a couple of those tosses not even close. Like I said, he needs all of his weapons.

Notwithstanding, the Bills defense is capable of keeping any game close. If we're lucky they won't be playing for anything come week 15.
 

NOMOFO

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Remind me...where did this debate "start"? It certainly had nothing to do with me praising Cutler, now or in the past. Conflating Spiller and Cutler is a straw man.

Getting back to where this debate (if we can call it that) began, the Bills played punishing, smothering defense with the exception of the two KC TDs you saw in the highlights which were misdirection against an injury replacement DE who did not hold his edge. Who would have thought the Bills losing Jarius Wynn might have been the difference in the game, a guy who's key virtue with the Packers was his edge holding? Regardless, the Bills key problem was getting only 6 points on 4 trips to the red zone, and at the end Orton going 0-4 from the 15, with a couple of those tosses not even close. Like I said, he needs all of his weapons.

Notwithstanding, the Bills defense is capable of keeping any game close. If we're lucky they won't be playing for anything come week 15.


We probably can agree at this point that this is going no place. I never said you mentioned Cutler. Guess what? I never said a single word about the Bills defense. Yes I get your point about team balance but I was only talking about your Spiller commentary.

Like I said to capatingoogle. I usually finish in the top 2 or three every year in fantasy and won it two years running. Not because I know any more than the next guy....but because so many people are just completely unable to look at FACTS and solid historical data to reasonably project results. So many people act on say nothing stats and hyperbole.

Guys were pizzen down their legs to draft Alshon Jeffrey and there was no question in my mind that I would have a better receiver in Randall Cobb and get him later. Now, I completely understand that fantasy value and real world value are two different things….but my point remains the same… people often just don’t look at facts and solid data.

So, yes, I will agree with you. If Spiller happens to actually be on the field when the Packers play them, there will in fact be worse running backs on the field in the NFL that day. THAT my friend, is about as much as I can give you regarding C.J. Spiller.
 
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HardRightEdge

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I also never even mentioned anything about contracts or actual value or anything like that so I have no clue why you would go down that road.
You did attempt to assign value with the your "GMs would rate Spiller a 5 argument" (whatever that means) and you also stated he was a poor value for his draft status.

To state the obvious, teams have 2 resources with which to acquire or retain players: draft picks and salary cap. Evaluating a player's value relative to his draft status and comparing that to another player's value relative to his cap cost are two sides of the same coin. Ergo, the Peppers comparison.

Further, a grade out of context to the team smacks of fantasy football unreality. The value of a player should be measured relative to the team dynamic. You have to ask what the team would look like if you subtract him, i.e., the alternatives on the roster to that player and the risk and/or cost in replacing him.
 
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