Preseason 2 Washington Redskins Studs/Duds

[Sky King]

It was former Packer LB Brian Noble I believe who shared an anecdote regarding Ron Wolf. He said that Wolf told him that even though he loved him to death as a player that he was constantly on the lookout to replace him with someone better.

Other than Rodgers, who is not going to be replaced by Brady, there may not be one other player on the team who could not be replaced by somebody better. Securing them is another matter, the cap and availability are daunting obstacles. But Janis is in the same boat as anyone else. He'll get replaced eventually. I just have doubts it will be this year.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well said. TT and MM don't say a whole lot in regards to player evaluation and what they are thinking, so I find myself having to interpret a lot of what they do or don't do, to guess what they are thinking.

1. Quickly sign Bahk to a new contract.........Spriggs might not be they guy they thought he was.
2. Draft 3 RB's............Monty alone isn't going to work.
3. Sign Lane Taylor to a decent contract.......Sitton or Lang leaving soon.
4. Sign House and use your first pick for another CB.........Randall and Rollins aren't starting caliber.

Maybe we need a thread on its own: "What TT/MM aren't saying but must be thinking"

Isn't that always in the serious fan's purview?

I agree with all of those points. Your point 3. is often overlooked: potential replacements for the following year's FAs. Your point 1. is a little controversial but I think there's truth to it. Bahktiari was a surprise himself, first earning the starting job week #1 while showing himself to be a good pass blocker right from the start. With Spriggs they may have been looking for a repeat with huge cap savings if he pulled it off. Unfortunately, it wasn't even close. Plan B: Bulaga's a FA after 2019; he'll be 31 years old in 2020. While that's not terribly old for a OT, there's always a concern given his serial knee injuries over the years. He may not have any MCL left in one of those knees. Spriggs will also be a FA after 2019. He's going to have to show something before then. His problem in showing no development now may be discouragement in the fact he sees not chance to start prior to 2020. That, of course, would be a big mistake.

We might add Josh Jones to the list as a 2-factor consideration.

Factor 1: They were using Burnett last season as an ILB hybrid and Thomas as the dime backer with Martinez seeing fewer snaps toward the end of last season. We have to conclude they are not happy with the Ryan-Martinez combo for anything other than base/run downs. Even still, as noted before, their chemistry in the run game still does not look good as they run into each other in competing to get to the ball carrier first. I think Martinez is the loser in that equation.

Factor 2: Burnett is a free agent. Jones is insurance if Burnett starts showing age. I would not assume they will not re-sign Burnett. If he plays this year to last year's level I'm sure they'd love to have him back at age 29 on a shorter term deal. The market for 29 year old strong safeties is not super strong unless you're an All Pro. But Jones helps cover the bases. And for my money Burnett had a Pro Bowl caliber season last year and if he follows that up somebody with an acute need could price him out.

Everybody wants more than one reason when making a significant decision, if they can find them.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Isn't that always in the serious fan's purview?

I agree with all of those points. Your point 3. is often overlooked: potential replacements for the following year's FAs. Your point 1. is a little controversial but I think there's truth to it. Bahktiari was a surprise himself, first earning the starting job week #1 while showing himself to be a good pass blocker right from the start. With Spriggs they may have been looking for a repeat with huge cap savings if he pulled it off. Unfortunately, it wasn't even close. Plan B: Bulaga's a FA after 2019; he'll be 31 years old in 2020. While that's not terribly old for a OT, there's always a concern given his serial knee injuries over the years. He may not have any MCL left in one of those knees. Spriggs will also be a FA after 2019. He's going to have to show something before then. His problem in showing no development now may be discouragement in the fact he sees not chance to start prior to 2020. That, of course, would be a big mistake.

We might add Josh Jones to the list as a 2-factor consideration.

Factor 1: They were using Burnett last season as an ILB hybrid and Thomas as the dime backer with Martinez seeing fewer snaps toward the end of last season. We have to conclude they are not happy with the Ryan-Martinez combo for anything other than base/run downs. Even still, as noted before, their chemistry in the run game still does not look good as they run into each other in competing to get to the ball carrier first. I think Martinez is the loser in that equation.

Factor 2: Burnett is a free agent. Jones is insurance if Burnett starts showing age. I would not assume they will not re-sign Burnett. If he plays this year to last year's level I'm sure they'd love to have him back at age 29 on a shorter term deal. The market for 29 year old strong safeties is not super strong unless you're an All Pro. But Jones helps cover the bases. And for my money Burnett had a Pro Bowl caliber season last year and if he follows that up somebody with an acute need could price him out.

Everybody wants more than one reason when making a significant decision, if they can find them.

Lots of moving chess pieces for sure. I always have fun trying to figure out what move #3 and beyond might be. A lot of us are critical of TT and MM, but there is a method to their madness, even if it isn't inherently obvious or successful. There are also a lot of unknowns to these well laid plans, some workout, some backfire.....might be why there are millions of people watching Football and not chess.

 

[easyk83]

But it really was a sh*tty zone coverage.

And some things never change.

 

[PikeBadger]

Lots of moving chess pieces for sure. I always have fun trying to figure out what move #3 and beyond might be. A lot of us are critical of TT and MM, but there is a method to their madness, even if it isn't inherently obvious. There are also a lot of unknowns to these well laid plans, some workout, some backfire.....might be why there are millions of people watching Football and not chess.

I've always found #3 very intriguing. Thompson has a history of drafting positions where contracts are expiring in 12 months. He likes to back-fill a year in advance.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I've always found #3 very intriguing. Thompson has a history of drafting positions where contracts are expiring in 12 months. He likes to back-fill a year in advance.

Which can work, if all your moves pan out. But as we saw at CB and RB last year, a few failures of drafted guys or backups, leaves you exposed. Only other way to cover your **** is let a guy walk and try to replace him immediately with a Free Agent, but those can backfire too. I love the draft and development model when it works, but when it fails, it can leave you weak at a position for a year or two.

 

[PikeBadger]

Which can work, if all your moves pan out. But as we saw at CB and RB last year, a few failures of drafted guys or backups, leaves you exposed. Only other way to cover your **** is let a guy walk and try to replace him immediately with a Free Agent, but those can backfire too. I love the draft and development model when it works, but when it fails, it can leave you weak at a position for a year or two.

True. Know any teams that aren't weak at a position?

 

[HardRightEdge]

And some things never change.

It's just not a Capers forte. Sure, there's the occasional sneaky zone blitz where he drops a DL or OLB into a passing lane that the QB does not expect (Mathews dropped an easy pick last year as an example). But when you get down to it he's a man / blitz guy which accounts for the high pick search for cover corners in recent years.

Now, the zones looked better in the latter part of last season to the extent that cheap first downs on 3rd. and 15 to wide open receivers in unoccupied zones got cleaned up. Whatever zone concepts he works, young guys really struggle with them. He'll use zone less if the perimeter corners show they can play consistent man. Right now it looks like King and Hawkins, and frankly right now they're looking like an upgrade over Randall / Gunter, admittedly a low bar given Randall's regression. House would have been a presumed starter, but he's got to get on the field to show Hawkins is not making the better case.

I don't know how much Denver will play their starters, but that receiving crew should be a better test than they've faced so far.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I've always found #3 very intriguing. Thompson has a history of drafting positions where contracts are expiring in 12 months. He likes to back-fill a year in advance.

If you're going to avoid free agency, it's pretty much a necessity.

 

[PikeBadger]

If you're going to avoid free agency, it's pretty much a necessity.

Is Thompson still in last place in free agent signings per year? Or did this springs drunken sailor spending binge kick him up the ladder?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

True. Know any teams that aren't weak at a position?

The team that wins the Super Bowl each year?

 

[swhitset]

Well, the bold part indicates that you absolutely agree with my take on it. Of course I would have liked the Packers to re-sign Tretter for a reasonable contract but it was the right decision to not match the offer he received on the open market.

We are in agreement.. I was just pointing out that there were indeed reasons to keep him, and that his loss may prove to be significant.

 

[gopkrs]

Regarding Josh Jones and Burnett. I have high hopes for Brice. He covers deep well and tackles hard. He could turn out to be very good. Burnett does not cover deep well. imho

 

[HardRightEdge]

Is Thompson still in last place in free agent signings per year? Or did this springs drunken sailor spending binge kick him up the ladder?

By NFL standards, the 5 guys of note, two starters and maybe a third along with a couple of guys who should get some decent snaps in rotation and match-ups, kinda gets him on par with the league.

But you still have to look at the long term average...this year's "binge" could be a one-off. I think the pressure has been building to do better in the playoffs and he wanted to cover bases with vets. If the Packers were to win the Super Bowl , or at least get to the game, the pressure would ease he can get back to the "always becoming, never being" business as usual.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Regarding Josh Jones and Burnett. I have high hopes for Brice. He covers deep well and tackles hard. He could turn out to be very good. Burnett does not cover deep well. imho

I'll say one thing for Brice and Evans. These guys seem to get to the deep sideline ball with more frequency than the Pro Bowl FS starter.

That play Clinton-Dix made early in the Washington game, coming like a shot out of nowhere to deflect that short crossing pass was quite a thing to see. He actually read it too well and overran the route. I keep seeing a strong safety in that player, where he's more impressive coming up than going back.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

At the money, I too found the move hard to criticize. Still, it took away our most valuable depth piece, though, on a line which has not gone many years without needing a backup to fill in extensively. Thus my dismay - not with the money, but with the loss. I do not claim to have a counter move which would have been better, I just was not happy overall. Such is the luxury of being a fan

Once again, there's no way to evaluate a move without taking a look at the financial side of it. While I would have liked the Packers to keep Tretter it was a no-brainer not to match the Browns offer for hin.

Why more unused cap this year than in the past? The FA list for 2018 is not especially daunting. Well, the cap cannot keep going up forever and if the TV ratings don't improve the cap growth stall could come sooner rather than latter. Perhaps more importantly, Rodgers thinks he deserves a raise and sooner or later that will be a big number. Since there is always optimism for a Super Bowl win, if that happens this season Rodgers' raise will be a foregone conclusion taking affect next year.

While I definitely agree with most of your pist there's a way to extend Rodgers' contract without an increased cap hit over the next few years.

McCaffrey might provide that versatility. He looks natural and fearless fielding punts. I have not noticed if they've tried him at gunner, but they should if they haven't. He's got a good speed/size combination for the job and he's just a smart football player who should be able to pick up the techniques pretty easily.

I believe Demovsky mentioned the Packers used McCaffrey as a gunner vs. Washington on Saturday.

First, I don't have a "Janis hat." Second it was in direct response to your ridiculous ascertainment that Janis has only had success against "rookies and car salesmen"... a comment BTW that exposes your obvious disdain for JJ for whatever reason. Curiously, you have some pretty high praise for some other WRs based on preseason play. Yet you make no mention of all the rookies and car salesmen that have been covering them.

Again, Larry McCarren and several others are also saying he's looking pretty good. But I guess they're idiots too, right?

Hmmm...It really looks like your disdain for Janis has put you in a tough spot. Unless he gets cut you may be getting a less-than cheerful earful from all those posters that have been belittled as part of your relentless anti-Janis campaign. If he makes the team and, Heaven forbid that he makes a good play here and there, be prepared to reap what you've sown. Maybe you sense this, too, and that's the reason you seem to be cheering so outwardly for him to fail. Whatever, it's uncommon for a Packer fan to be so anti-Packer player.

There have been numerous fans over the past few years declaring Janis will break out as a receiver based on his performance during the preseason but it hasn't happened so far. I think it's smart not to put too much stock into him catching some balls in meaningless games while being covered by second and third stringers.

Regarding Josh Jones and Burnett. I have high hopes for Brice. He covers deep well and tackles hard. He could turn out to be very good. Burnett does not cover deep well. imho

That's why the coaching staff prefers to line up Burnett close to the LOS.

 

[Sky King]

There have been numerous fans over the past few years declaring Janis will break out as a receiver based on his performance during the preseason but it hasn't happened so far. I think it's smart not to put too much stock into him catching some balls in meaningless games while being covered by second and third stringers.

Perhaps, as long as one can totally discount his stellar, near team record performance in a playoff game as being irrelevant as an indicator of his ability. You know, kind of a reverse Mulligan due to it contraindicating certain narratives. Not many Packer receivers ever got so "lucky" in the clutch for me to dismiss it as a total fluke, especially since he seems to be playing very well most recently. How audacious of me to believe that Packer fans actually want all of their players to succeed and that they may find some reason for optimism whenever that success occurs.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Perhaps, as long as one can totally discount his stellar, near team record performance in a playoff game as being irrelevant as an indicator of his ability. You know, kind of a reverse Mulligan due to it contraindicating certain narratives. Not many Packer receivers ever got so "lucky" in the clutch for me to dismiss it as a total fluke, especially since he seems to be playing very well most recently. How audacious of me to believe that Packer fans actually want all of their players to succeed and that they may find some reason for optimism whenever that success occurs.

I would love for Janis to turn into a productive receiver with the Packers but I don´t see it happening based on some catches during preseason and training camp practices.

 

[Sky King]

I would love for Janis to turn into a productive receiver with the Packers but I don´t see it happening based on some catches during preseason and training camp practices.

It's the most recent data we've got though. He's got a chance to steadily improve as well as the next guy and I'm pulling for him to do so, same as for everyone else. However, I don't expect every player to progress at the same rate, especially the small school guys. Maybe, just maybe he's coming into his own. That's my hope, anyway.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I believe Demovsky mentioned the Packers used McCaffrey as a gunner vs. Washington on Saturday.

There you go. I could make out Davis' number on the near side but not the guys on the far side. That would make this a head-to-competition. I'll have to watch next time to see if McCaffrey is getting to the ball, something Davis struggled with.

While I definitely agree with most of your pist there's a way to extend Rodgers' contract without an increased cap hit over the next few years.

I'm not really "pist" about it, though.

You can always defer the cap hit to the out years with a big singing bonus. That has it's own risks, such as an injury or performance decline running headlong into a big dead cap number. Thompson has tended in recent years to favor big contracts that lean toward flatish cap hits over their duration or no later than after year 1. a more pay-as-you go approach with the cap.

Now, if an extension is tacked onto the end Rodgers' current deal that runs through 2019, a big signing bonus would be inevitable to supplement Rodgers current take-home of over the next 3 years of $55.65 million. You probably have to get him up to $81 - $84 mil take home for those 3 years with a signing bonus and then a few years of high base salary where the signing bonus proration gets tacked on. That's more of a back loaded scenario. You're probably looking at some very big cap numbers starting in 2020. That still presents a problem because the guarantees will not be big enough since nothing in 2017 - 2019 is guaranteed

If the deal isn't done until after the season, there will be back pay involved for 2017 in the signing bonus making it that much bigger.

If they wipe out 2018 and 2019 (or even 2017 before the season starts), the signing bonus could be somewhat smaller and the deal more flattish.

I think it's important to note that Rodgers is playing for $13.65 mil cash money this year with zero guarantees left in his contract. I would not be surprised if the matter is under serious discussion now.[/QUOTE]

 

[HardRightEdge]

Perhaps, as long as one can totally discount his stellar, near team record performance in a playoff game as being irrelevant as an indicator of his ability. You know, kind of a reverse Mulligan due to it contraindicating certain narratives. Not many Packer receivers ever got so "lucky" in the clutch for me to dismiss it as a total fluke, especially since he seems to be playing very well most recently. How audacious of me to believe that Packer fans actually want all of their players to succeed and that they may find some reason for optimism whenever that success occurs.

If you want all Packer players to succeed, you'll be rooting for 37 of them either invisible on the PS, wearing somebody else's uniform, or wearing no uniform at all.

It's a war of attrition and a zero sum game. When you get down to the position on the roster where Janis resides, in rooting for him to succeed you are de facto rooting for somebody else to fail. There's no way around that.

Now is a time for observation. Guys are being given an opportunity to beat him out. Rooting comes later when the roster is down to 53.

 

[HardRightEdge]

That's why the coaching staff prefers to line up Burnett close to the LOS.

Not being a FS is not the only reason. He anticipates the play better than anybody out there, making him well suited for ILB/box safety.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's the most recent data we've got though. He's got a chance to steadily improve as well as the next guy and I'm pulling for him to do so, same as for everyone else. However, I don't expect every player to progress at the same rate, especially the small school guys. Maybe, just maybe he's coming into his own. That's my hope, anyway.

The problem being that Janis has made a ton of catches in preseason games and training camp practices during the last three offseasons as well but yet it didn´t translate to success in the regular season. Therefore I advise to not put too much stock into his performance in August.

You can always defer the cap hit to the out years with a big singing bonus. That has it's own risks, such as an injury or performance decline running headlong into a big dead cap number. Thompson has tended in recent years to favor big contracts that lean toward flatish cap hits over their duration or no later than after year 1. a more pay-as-you go approach with the cap.

I would be absolutely fine with Thompson heavily backloading the cap hits in Rodgers´next contract as the Packers will most likely be in for a rebuilding year anyway once #12 decides to retire or a significant decline in performance makes him expendable and a huge amount of dead money counting against the cap for a single season won´t matter a lot at that point.

 

[Carl]

Well said. TT and MM don't say a whole lot in regards to player evaluation and what they are thinking, so I find myself having to interpret a lot of what they do or don't do, to guess what they are thinking.

1. Quickly sign Bahk to a new contract.........Spriggs might not be they guy they thought he was.
2. Draft 3 RB's............Monty alone isn't going to work.
3. Sign Lane Taylor to a decent contract.......Sitton or Lang leaving soon.
4. Sign House and use your first pick for another CB.........Randall and Rollins aren't starting caliber.

Maybe we need a thread on its own: "What TT/MM aren't saying but must be thinking"

Signing Bahk likely had more to do with Bahk becoming on of the league's best pass blockers than Spriggs not playing well.

Even is Spriggs looked good as a rookie, they were not going to let a franchise LT go.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Signing Bahk likely had more to do with Bahk becoming on of the league's best pass blockers than Spriggs not playing well.

Even is Spriggs looked good as a rookie, they were not going to let a franchise LT go.

So what you are saying is that the Packers used 3 picks on Spriggs with the full intention of him being a backup until 2020 and Bulaga's contract was up? Which would also mean that the Packers were able to resign Spriggs to a second contract.

Had Spriggs looked like a starter from the moment he came into camp or at least by the end of the preseason, I don't think the Packers are so eager to resign Bahk that they do it in September.

Again, open to interpretation of what TT and MM say and what they do.