Post draft conference call: Gutekunst emphasizes confidence in current WR group

[Deleted member 6794]

If a team is drafting successfully, then over time the biggest in-house improvements to the roster will be 2nd and 3rd year players, not rookies. This is painfully obvious to anyone who takes just a passing glance around the league.

There's no doubt that there are a lot of players making significant improvement in their second season, already less doing the same in the third year. But most of them already made some kind of impact as a rookie as well.

Therefore it's unrealistic to expect second or third year players who didn't show at least some promise in their rookie campaign to perform at a significant higher level in following seasons.

In addition the number of the players actually making such a jump is definitely lower than you think.

We don't know if Gutekunst is drafting successfully right now because his first class hasn't even played its 3rd season yet.

True, the first of Gutekunst's draft classes has completed its second season and it's not looking promising. First of all none of the players made an improvement in their second season and three of the 11 picks aren't even on the roster anymore.

This is what I said in the first place, and you, apparently desperate to stamp down anything that might resemble optimism regarding the Packers, took it a different direction and argued with a point I didn't make.

That's utter nonsense. I'm not one of the debbie downers around here and was actually pretty optimistic that the Packers could improve the talent level on the roster enough to be considered a legit Super Bowl contender entering the 2020 season. Unfortunately the front office hasn't done that in my opinion over the past few weeks.

You, on the other side, aren't capable of taking an objective look at this year's offseason moves because there's no way Gutekunst or any other member of the front office could be wrong about any move they make.

In this case, you only want to look at GB. In another case, say 6th round draft picks not staying on rosters, you want to look at the scope of the NFL.

You're only choosing the data that backs up your theory.

Will every player improve in their 2nd and/or 3rd years? Of course not! Nobody is saying that. But do a good amount of NFL players improve in that time span? Obviously yes.

You're making this so much more difficult than it is.

At least I'm using data to back up my opinion while you declare yours a fact without supporting your claim at all.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I'm not putting much confidence in Gute's WR evaluations. Just look at the the big mistake in expecting a slow UDFA like GMO to play a big role in the offense. He made a few plays but overall his production matched his level of athleticism. The fact that Gute is again expecting adequate production from the 2-6 receivers, despite their obvious limitations shows that he just doesn't get it. Same for Lowry and Lancaster. Their lack of impact has shown that they are reserve players at best. Despite that, they are once again expected to play a lot of snaps this season.

 

[Dantés]

There's no doubt that there are a lot of players making significant improvement in their second season, already less doing the same in the third year. But most of them already made some kind of impact as a rookie as well.

Therefore it's unrealistic to expect second or third year players who didn't show at least some promise in their rookie campaign to perform at a significant higher level in following seasons.

In addition the number of the players actually making such a jump is definitely lower than you think.

True, the first of Gutekunst's draft classes has completed its second season and it's not looking promising. First of all none of the players made an improvement in their second season and three of the 11 picks aren't even on the roster anymore.

That's utter nonsense. I'm not one of the debbie downers around here and was actually pretty optimistic that the Packers could improve the talent level on the roster enough to be considered a legit Super Bowl contender entering the 2020 season. Unfortunately the front office hasn't done that in my opinion over the past few weeks.

You, on the other side, aren't capable of taking an objective look at this year's offseason moves because there's no way Gutekunst or any other member of the front office could be wrong about any move they make.

At least I'm using data to back up my opinion while you declare yours a fact without supporting your claim at all.

If a player does little or nothing in year one, the odds that they will be a good player in the future go down. If a player does little or nothing in year one AND two, the odds that they will be a good player in the future go down even further.

But that does not change the fact that most of the in-house improvement that any team can expect is from players in their 2nd/3rd seasons, and NOT rookies. The two realities are not mutually exclusive. And I was really careful to say that the 2nd/3rd year players of the Packers are not at all guaranteed to improve and make a positive impact. IIRC, I even said that few or none of them might. But apparently that didn't stop you from disagreeing with what I wasn't saying.

Which has been your theme lately. You can say "utter nonsense" all you like. It's just funny that rather than interact with what I say (which is surely difficult for you-- I understand), you take it in a different direction to correct or refute something that isn't my point.

Case in point-- I've advocated constantly for waiting before judging Gutekunst's moves, good or bad. How stupid does someone have to be to argue that we should look at them "objectively?" We're talking about players who haven't done anything yet. How exactly are we supposed to be "objective" about judging the abilities of players who haven't played? I've explained what I think the rationale behind them might be, and how the players might fit in a larger approach. I have never (literally never) said that Gutekunst can't make a mistake, hasn't made a mistake, or even is definitively good GM.

Just one more example of you skewering a straw man opponent. One of these days you should try disagreeing with one of my actual points.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

But that does not change the fact that most of the in-house improvement that any team can expect is from players in their 2nd/3rd seasons, and NOT rookies.

Do you care to back up that statement with actual data???

Case in point-- I've advocated constantly for waiting before judging Gutekunst's moves, good or bad. How stupid does someone have to be to argue that we should look at them "objectively?" We're talking about players who haven't done anything yet. How exactly are we supposed to be "objective" about judging the abilities of players who haven't played?

It should be pretty easy to form an objective opinion on Gutekunst using the team's first four picks on backups while ignoring obvious positions of need, especially considering it was only one win away from the Super Bowl.

 

[Dantés]

Do you care to back up that statement with actual data???

It's surprising that you need me to give you data to illustrate something that's so evident to anyone paying attention, but if you really need me to teach you the basics, then sure!

I'll use the Packers as a sample.

Let's take a 10 year sample ending with the most recent class that we have three seasons of familiarity with; 2008-2017.

Here are all the players that the Packers took in that span that made notable (using this pretty broadly-- basically anything that was not negligible) positive impacts on the team:

• Jordy Nelson
• Jermichael Finley
• Josh Sitton
• Matt Flynn
• B.J. Raji
• Clay Matthews
• T.J. Lang
• Bryan Bulaga
• Morgan Burnett
• Marshall Newhouse
• James Starks
• Randall Cobb
• Davon House
• Nick Perry
• Casey Hayward
• Mike Daniels
• Eddie Lacy
• David Bakhtiari
• J.C. Tretter
• Micah Hyde
• Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
• Davante Adams
• Richard Rodgers
• Corey Linsley
• Jeff Janis
• Damarious Randall
• Ty Montgomery
• Jake Ryan
• Kenny Clark
• Kyler Fackrell
• Blake Martinez
• Dean Lowry
• Kevin King
• Jamaal Williams
• Aaron Jones

Ok, now-- ask yourself, 'Self: were these players most impactful as rookies, or did their positive impact increase with seasons and development?'

That should help you arrive at an answer!

 

[Dblbogey]

Is Jordy still serviceable?

Why not don Hutson?

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

I'm not putting much confidence in Gute's WR evaluations. Just look at the the big mistake in expecting a slow UDFA like GMO to play a big role in the offense. He made a few plays but overall his production matched his level of athleticism. The fact that Gute is again expecting adequate production from the 2-6 receivers, despite their obvious limitations shows that he just doesn't get it. Same for Lowry and Lancaster. Their lack of impact has shown that they are reserve players at best. Despite that, they are once again expected to play a lot of snaps this season.

To be fair, GMo was Thompson's pick. He and Trevor Davis were two of Thompson's bad apples that ended his tenure.

The problem so far though is that Gute has not used his draft capital wisely to replace our former greats in Cobb, Jordy and Jones. Now... Considering some big time plays Lazard came up with over the stretch of last year, I would agree with @OldSchool101 that we may have found a late round star there.

But for just about any other WR picked up by Gute, it's produce or go time.

 

[Sanguine camper]

It's surprising that you need me to give you data to illustrate something that's so evident to anyone paying attention, but if you really need me to teach you the basics, then sure!

I'll use the Packers as a sample.

Let's take a 10 year sample ending with the most recent class that we have three seasons of familiarity with; 2008-2017.

Here are all the players that the Packers took in that span that made notable (using this pretty broadly-- basically anything that was not negligible) positive impacts on the team:

• Jordy Nelson
• Jermichael Finley
• Josh Sitton
• Matt Flynn
• B.J. Raji
• Clay Matthews
• T.J. Lang
• Bryan Bulaga
• Morgan Burnett
• Marshall Newhouse
• James Starks
• Randall Cobb
• Davon House
• Nick Perry
• Casey Hayward
• Mike Daniels
• Eddie Lacy
• David Bakhtiari
• J.C. Tretter
• Micah Hyde
• Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
• Davante Adams
• Richard Rodgers
• Corey Linsley
• Jeff Janis
• Damarious Randall
• Ty Montgomery
• Jake Ryan
• Kenny Clark
• Kyler Fackrell
• Blake Martinez
• Dean Lowry
• Kevin King
• Jamaal Williams
• Aaron Jones

Ok, now-- ask yourself, 'Self: were these players most impactful as rookies, or did their positive impact increase with seasons and development?'

That should help you arrive at an answer!

I would disagree with your assessment of Marshall Newhouse. He was a sieve/turnstile as a Packer.

 

[Dantés]

I would disagree with your assessment of Marshall Newhouse. He was a sieve/turnstile as a Packer.

Fair

 

[OldSchool101]

It's fine to expect second and third year players to rise to the occasion but actually it doesn't happen that often. Just take a look at the past six years with the Packers.

2014 Randall Cobb (3rd season) 1287/12TDs
2015 No WR qualifies in 2nd-3rd season N/A
2016 Davante Adams (2nd season) 997/12TDs
2017 Jeff Janis (2nd season) 7th round ZERO starts but played significant ST
2018 Trevor Davis (5th round) ZERO starts as WR but played significant ST and was traded after year 2
2018 Geronimo (3rd season) 303/2TD
2019 MVS (2nd season) 452/2TD
2019 Lazard (2nd season) 477/3TD



Since 2014
Two WR came on extremely strong.
Two were largely relegated to ST and didn’t produce at WR.
One failed (Gmo)
Two more have met year 2 expectations and are still on the rise and Roster in year 2020 (TBD)

One was injured all 2nd season (EQ) so incomplete information there.


2020 has the best chance of any season I can remember to resolve this debate. Will at least 1 WR rise to the occasion? Or will all 4 WR level off or regress? IDK, but I’d put my $ on at least 1 rising
EQ (3rd season)
MVS (3rd season)
Lazard (3rd season)
Kumerow (2nd season)

 

[GleefulGary]

Allen Lazard went from doing nothing as a rookie to putting up a 51/700 season when expanded across 16 games. There is at least one player on the roster who CLEARLY hit that 2nd year jump.

The important thing to note is that while obviously not every player will do the same, it's reasonable to expect 2-3 across the roster to do so, and honestly, that's on the low side of things.

 

[GleefulGary]

To be fair, GMo was Thompson's pick. He and Trevor Davis were two of Thompson's bad apples that ended his tenure.

The problem so far though is that Gute has not used his draft capital wisely to replace our former greats in Cobb, Jordy and Jones. Now... Considering some big time plays Lazard came up with over the stretch of last year, I would agree with @OldSchool101 that we may have found a late round star there.

But for just about any other WR picked up by Gute, it's produce or go time.

GMO wasn't a pick. He was an UDFA.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

GMO wasn't a pick. He was an UDFA.

He was Thompson's guy was the point, semantics aside

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

2014 Randall Cobb (3rd season) 1287/12TDs
2015 No WR qualifies in 2nd-3rd season N/A
2016 Davante Adams (2nd season) 997/12TDs
2017 Jeff Janis (2nd season) 7th round ZERO starts but played significant ST
2018 Trevor Davis (5th round) ZERO starts as WR but played significant ST and was traded after year 2
2018 Geronimo (3rd season) 303/2TD
2019 MVS (2nd season) 452/2TD
2019 Lazard (2nd season) 477/3TD



Since 2014
Two WR came on extremely strong.
Two were largely relegated to ST and didn’t produce at WR.
One failed (Gmo)
Two more have met year 2 expectations and are still on the rise and Roster in year 2020 (TBD)

One was injured all 2nd season (EQ) so incomplete information there.


2020 has the best chance of any season I can remember to resolve this debate. Will at least 1 WR rise to the occasion? Or will all 4 WR level off or regress? IDK, but I’d put my $ on at least 1 rising
EQ (3rd season)
MVS (3rd season)
Lazard (3rd season)
Kumerow (2nd season)

Well I think one does rise for sure. But as to the group as a whole beyond Adams and Lazard, there seems to be a lot of inconsistencies in production. The overall satisfaction with how this group does this year is going to depend on how the addition of Funchess pans out I think. I don't have very high hopes of that.

In the end, I think our current group will be marginally better than last year, but not on the level of the elite groups we had from 2007-2014.

 

[OldSchool101]

Well I think one does rise for sure. But as to the group as a whole beyond Adams and Lazard, there seems to be a lot of inconsistencies in production. The overall satisfaction with how this group does this year is going to depend on how the addition of Funchess pans out I think. I don't have very high hopes of that.

In the end, I think our current group will be marginally better than last year, but not on the level of the elite groups we had from 2007-2014.

Yeah that’s a reasonable default I guess...very slight improvement.
In a scale of positive changes being:
Very slight, Slight, moderate, Marked and Dramatic.

I’m even leaning “Slight to Moderate”. I say that because I see Three advantages over 2019(granted all questionable)
1. A proven veteran presence in Funchess (as you noted)
2. A possible 4 veteran WR returning in years 2,3 which offers an increased level of competition and depth
3. A 2nd year in MLF system


Any one of those could give us “Slight” improvement. any 2 combined could give us “Moderate” to a status of “Marked” improvement.

 

[Sanguine camper]

2014 Randall Cobb (3rd season) 1287/12TDs
2015 No WR qualifies in 2nd-3rd season N/A
2016 Davante Adams (2nd season) 997/12TDs
2017 Jeff Janis (2nd season) 7th round ZERO starts but played significant ST
2018 Trevor Davis (5th round) ZERO starts as WR but played significant ST and was traded after year 2
2018 Geronimo (3rd season) 303/2TD
2019 MVS (2nd season) 452/2TD
2019 Lazard (2nd season) 477/3TD



Since 2014
Two WR came on extremely strong.
Two were largely relegated to ST and didn’t produce at WR.
One failed (Gmo)
Two more have met year 2 expectations and are still on the rise and Roster in year 2020 (TBD)

One was injured all 2nd season (EQ) so incomplete information there.


2020 has the best chance of any season I can remember to resolve this debate. Will at least 1 WR rise to the occasion? Or will all 4 WR level off or regress? IDK, but I’d put my $ on at least 1 rising
EQ (3rd season)
MVS (3rd season)
Lazard (3rd season)
Kumerow (2nd season)

The question in expecting young players to make a jump in their second or third seasons is how high is their ceiling? With Cobb and Adams, they possessed the cutting ability to get open on nearly every type of route. I think the current group has a higher ceiling than GMO, but they've not showed the ability that they will approach the skills of Cobb or Adams. I think at the end of the day, they will fill in nicely as the 3rd or 4th WR's, but the Packers still lack a true number 2.

 

[gopkrs]

Sometimes a first year man just does not get an opportunity to show what he has. That said, though a player can definitely improve a lot in the 2nd or 3rd year simply from practice and maturation; much of it depends on the coaching too. I did not like our coaching staff under McCarthy. Coaches can ruin a player also. imho A good coach knows how to get the most out of each individual. And knows what they need to learn and how to motivate them.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

It's surprising that you need me to give you data to illustrate something that's so evident to anyone paying attention, but if you really need me to teach you the basics, then sure!

I'll use the Packers as a sample.

Let's take a 10 year sample ending with the most recent class that we have three seasons of familiarity with; 2008-2017.

Here are all the players that the Packers took in that span that made notable (using this pretty broadly-- basically anything that was not negligible) positive impacts on the team:

• Jordy Nelson
• Jermichael Finley
• Josh Sitton
• Matt Flynn
• B.J. Raji
• Clay Matthews
• T.J. Lang
• Bryan Bulaga
• Morgan Burnett
• Marshall Newhouse
• James Starks
• Randall Cobb
• Davon House
• Nick Perry
• Casey Hayward
• Mike Daniels
• Eddie Lacy
• David Bakhtiari
• J.C. Tretter
• Micah Hyde
• Ha Ha Clinton-Dix
• Davante Adams
• Richard Rodgers
• Corey Linsley
• Jeff Janis
• Damarious Randall
• Ty Montgomery
• Jake Ryan
• Kenny Clark
• Kyler Fackrell
• Blake Martinez
• Dean Lowry
• Kevin King
• Jamaal Williams
• Aaron Jones

Ok, now-- ask yourself, 'Self: were these players most impactful as rookies, or did their positive impact increase with seasons and development?'

That should help you arrive at an answer!

There are way too many players on that list who either had an immediate impact during their rookie season, took them longer than three years to improve or never made a significant jump for it to be even close to accurate.

2014 Randall Cobb (3rd season) 1287/12TDs
2015 No WR qualifies in 2nd-3rd season N/A
2016 Davante Adams (2nd season) 997/12TDs
2017 Jeff Janis (2nd season) 7th round ZERO starts but played significant ST
2018 Trevor Davis (5th round) ZERO starts as WR but played significant ST and was traded after year 2
2018 Geronimo (3rd season) 303/2TD
2019 MVS (2nd season) 452/2TD
2019 Lazard (2nd season) 477/3TD

Janis, Davis, Allison and MVS don't qualify among players making a significant jump in either their second or third seasons.

2020 has the best chance of any season I can remember to resolve this debate. Will at least 1 WR rise to the occasion? Or will all 4 WR level off or regress? IDK, but I’d put my $ on at least 1 rising
EQ (3rd season)
MVS (3rd season)
Lazard (3rd season)
Kumerow (2nd season)

FWIW Kumerow will be in his sixth season in the NFL.

The important thing to note is that while obviously not every player will do the same, it's reasonable to expect 2-3 across the roster to do so, and honestly, that's on the low side of things.

Last season one of 21 Packers draft picks who were either in their second or third seasons made significant improvement.

 

[Dantés]

There are way too many players on that list who either had an immediate impact during their rookie season, took them longer than three years to improve or never made a significant jump for it to be even close to accurate.

Avoiding the question because you don't have an answer. Which is all the answer I need. Get a clue next time.

 

[Mavster]

A rookie WR won't give the Packers immediately help

A backup RB, and Hback will.

someone better tell Seattle, Tennessee, SF, Washington, Baltimore, NY, KC and Pitt.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

A rookie WR won't give the Packers immediately help

A backup RB, and Hback will.

someone better tell Seattle, Tennessee, SF, Washington, Baltimore, NY, KC and Pitt.

I'm guessing sarcasm here? Not sure who is saying this.

 

[Mavster]

I'm guessing sarcasm here? Not sure who is saying this.

None at all.

GB has the best receivers in the NFL. With the most potential. Forget wasting a pick on some rookie. Last season proved rookie receivers can’t positively contribute to a football team.

 

[OldSchool101]

Janis, Davis, Allison and MVS don't qualify among players making a significant jump in either their second or third seasons.

Precisely Captain..it’s why Janis and Davis are noted in RED

One failed (Gmo)

That’s also why I said this..

MVS hasn’t played a 3rd season so the jury’s out in that 2nd/3rd year argument. Not enough information yet, although this season should be telling though and there’s no more excuses (1st year in system etc..) It’s put up or shut up for several of these guys.

My best guess is one of the 3 of EQ, Lazard or MVS make that significant jump. My best guess is EQ. Lazard is my Runner up.

 

[OldSchool101]

Last season one of 21 Packers draft picks who were either in their second or third seasons made significant improvement.

19 TD Aaron Jones and Allen Lazard come to mind immediately as qualifiers. So I have more than that before I even look further.
It just occurred to me! No wonder why you are so pessimistic this season!!

 

[Deleted member 6794]

19 TD Aaron Jones and Allen Lazard come to mind immediately as qualifiers. So I have more than that before I even look further.

Jones was the one player I was talking about. Lazard wasn't drafted by the Packers, therefore not part of my list.