Playoff positioning

burt packerack

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Wont happen again???? AP is a down right power house and has BURNED us more than just that once. We have a knack for letting guys have a record setting day on us. Granted we did pull out a win, but that was because Ponder has his head burried up his A-hole. Don't count out AP, he is on pace for a record breaking season.
Ponder really did win the game for us. We cant rely solely on turnovers to beat them again. We need to play better football.
 
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adambr2

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Yes, they need to play better...And Peterson will get his yards...I only say "won't happen again" as in he won't get 10 YPC again...well, certainly shouldn't.
 

FrankRizzo

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3 plays 6
4 plays 5

2 gets a bye.

I am gunning for the #2 seed.
That means besides hoping we go 4-0 these next 4 games (will be the Vegas favorite in all 4 of them, with the Bears one being the close spread), I also am hoping the Niners lose one game, and they have 2 real tough road games so I think they will.

If we get the #2 seed, we will most likely face the winner of the 3 vs 6 game, which figures to be #3 San Fran in that scenario.

Can we win a cold weather, smash-mouth game against the 49ers, the same team who punched us in the mouth in Green Bay in September?
 

FrankRizzo

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The NFC should come down to this as their Final 4:

Atlanta - San Fran - Packers - Giants
To get to the Super Bowl, we probably will have to beat either SF or NYG, and then Atlanta.
Now if we don't get to the #2 seed, we also will have to beat a Seattle or Washington before that.
See why we want a bye (#2 seed)?
 

TecmoBobNelson

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I'd almost rather not have the first round bye. Remember last season, we had way too much time off, the Giants were coming off of a dominating victory and they came to Lambeau and destroyed us.

Give me the wild card game, hopefully a victory which will give us some momentum going into the tougher games.
 

FrankRizzo

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I'd almost rather not have the first round bye. Remember last season, we had way too much time off, the Giants were coming off of a dominating victory and they came to Lambeau and destroyed us.

Give me the wild card game, hopefully a victory which will give us some momentum going into the tougher games.
You can have your Wildcard game, and you have a 50% chance of not making it to the next round.

You WANT the bye.
You WANT someone to beat San Fran.
http://packersinsider.com/?p=4861
 

FrankRizzo

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If we get the 2 seed, it's most likely gonna look like this:

1- Atlanta
2- Packers

3 SF vs 6 Sea/TB
4 NYG vs 5 Chi/Sea/Wash

If SF wins and NY wins, then NY would go to Atlanta, and we'd welcome San Fran back to Lambeau.
If Seattle or whoever was #6 were to upset SF, then they'd go to Atlanta and we'd get the NYG or whoever wins that 4-5 game.

You want the 5 seed instead, then we'd get the Giants a week sooner.
 
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adambr2

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Lol yea the Giants will, just to come to our place and smack us again. After our bye of course.

Has it really come to this? It's not even "the Giants have our number?" It's "we can't beat the Giants?"

Besides, if we only get the wild card, just as good of chance that we're going to be facing the Giants in the first round anyway, only on their turf.

I agree with the previous poster, you still want the bye. Much easier to win 2 games than 3 to get to the Super Bowl. Yes, I fully admit the last 2 Super Bowls have been all about momentum, and that's important. Historically, 1-2 seeds are still far more likely to reach the Super Bowl than 5-6 seeds.

At this point with 4 games left, I don't really see how we're going to lose the division to the Bears and still "have momentum" going into the playoffs anyway.
 

Kitten

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Has it really come to this? It's not even "the Giants have our number?" It's "we can't beat the Giants?"

Besides, if we only get the wild card, just as good of chance that we're going to be facing the Giants in the first round anyway, only on their turf.

I agree with the previous poster, you still want the bye. Much easier to win 2 games than 3 to get to the Super Bowl. Yes, I fully admit the last 2 Super Bowls have been all about momentum, and that's important. Historically, 1-2 seeds are still far more likely to reach the Super Bowl than 5-6 seeds.

At this point with 4 games left, I don't really see how we're going to lose the division to the Bears and still "have momentum" going into the playoffs anyway.

I'm going to disagree and forsake the first round bye. Look to our path to the SB in 2010 and the similar path the Giants took in 2011. Neither of those teams had first round byes. In fact I think last year the first round bye may of done more harm than good. To say "we can't beat the Giant's" is a bit much. Of course we can beat the Giants but it's going to be extremely hard to do especially if we face them at home. Defeating them is more of an improbability than an impossibility if circumstances remain as they are now but those circumstances are apt to change. The playoffs are a whole new ballgame. Now is the time I look to see which teams are getting hot going into the playoffs and not so much teams that were consistently good throughout the year. The Packers are improving and if we hit our stride going into the playoffs along with the Giants and other such teams, this is anyone's race guys.
 
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adambr2

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Okay, let me lay out two different likely scenarios here based on whether we got the first round bye, or lost the division entirely and ended up as the wild card.

Scenario 1 we win out and get the bye. Most likely projections would have San Francisco getting the #3 seed and New York the #4. Chicago gets the #5 and Seattle the #6.

Under this scenario, assuming the 49ers beat Seattle in San Francisco, we couldn't possibly face the Giants until at least the NFC Championship Game. We would have the 49ers at home in the divisional round. The Giants would have to beat both the Bears and the Falcons for us to even face them.

Scenario 2, we end up as the #5 seed with the Bears instead earning the bye, everything else being the same. We would face the Giants immediately in the Wild Card round in New York.

I know what scenario I would want.
 

Vltrophy

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Best case scenario IMO we get the 3 seed. Play Seattle up here. Giants beat the Bears we go to San Fran then play the winner of Atl vs NYGs. Likely playin the Giants at MetLife Stadium for the NFC championship
 

FrankRizzo

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Regardless of what has happened in the past I still think it's better if we get a bye and play at home.
That's correct.... it's always best to have to win 1 less game.... always. Past trends are no guarantee of future results. But with a bye, it IS a guarantee that you make it to the NFC Final Four.
 

13 Times Champs

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That's correct.... it's always best to have to win 1 less game.... always. Past trends are no guarantee of future results. But with a bye, it IS a guarantee that you make it to the NFC Final Four.

We'll probably have a dozen payers nicked who can heal their wounds as well.
 

DevilDon

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As for wanting anything other than the first round bye:
It's one more game for Rodgers that he can get injured in. Trends of the last two years aside, to expect that a lower seeding makes you more likely to win the SB is just...... I dunno - nuts?
I'll go one further, if you ever see a game late in the season where a playoff team is tanking to take a lower seed in the playoffs, please call me. Because we're more likely to be hit by a moon-sized meteor this week.
 

FrankRizzo

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So today's UPSET I would love to see is MIAMI at San Fran..... seems very unlikely. But remember, in week 10, the Rams went to San Fran and tied them... and then last week the Rams beat the Niners.

Also, the Chiefs won at New Orleans in week 3 this year too and nobody was worse than KC this season. Oh, and last season we went to Kansas City and.....
So GO FINS today.

Vikings at home versus the Bears.... if Ponder is only terrible instead of horrendously atrocious like last week, the Vikings have a chance to upset the Bears there.

Think about this: If Ponder wasn't so horrible last week, didn't throw the Int in the end zone, they could have easily beaten us and had they, both we and them would be sitting here at 7-5 tied, with them above us in the tiebreaker. Adrian Peterson was that good.
 

Vltrophy

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Don't forget that if the Saints beat the Giants & the skins beat the Ravens NYGs are out of the playoffs at least until next week
 

FrankRizzo

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Vikings trying to do us a favor... quick 14-0 lead over Da Bears right now!
A Cutler interception, and 2 Peterson TDs....
 

FrankRizzo

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I luv it to. AD is one of my RBs in our ff league
In my KEEPER league where I have never had Peterson... I finally got him last year... the week before he hurt his ankle and missed about 5 weeks..... then they rushed him back for no reason as they were terrible, and you saw it, the horrific ACL..... so when I was able to get MJD this off-season for him, with MJD in everyone's top-5, and the ACL-recovering Peterson in the 10-15 range, I happily did the deal.

How has that worked out for me this year?
 

Vltrophy

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I drafted Greg Jennings & Miami beach Packer drafted Cobb. He asked if I wanted to trade Jennings & I said no. First game Jennings missed I went back to him & asked if he still wanted to trade. He said sure. I got Cobb for Jennings right before Jennings missed all those games
 

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