At 25 Cobb likely has one more lucrative contract to go, or at least he'll want to put himself in position for that to happen if he's looking carefully at his personal big picture. He'll be young enough to cash in again if he puts up similar numbers to last season or close to them over the next 3-4 seasons, the likely duration of his impending contract. If he signs for a longer period of time he risks his next contract negotiations to occur when he's 30 or older. Bad timing. That's getting up there for some WRs and GMs, and the current college game is ideal for developing less-raw WR talent. Cash in big twice? It's possible for Cobb, perhaps. Elite players can and have done that if they're truly elite.
For Cobb to enjoy sustained professional and financial success it is also essential "The Man" be at QB, or darn close to him, for any contending team he signs with. Distill that down even further to include teams with "The Man" also being young enough for Cobb to benefit by remaining relevant for the next 3-4 years. Should he take a chance on signing with a team with an up-and-coming QB? Well, there's no guarantee any young QB will ever become "The Man" so he will be taking a big chance if he goes that route. Great QBs can make a receiver look great but the other way around not so much.
Brady and Manning, for example, are too old to offer Cobb more than a year or two of helping him to remain a consistent, relevant star at WR. As of today, how many teams and their QBs would truly qualify as a sure thing for Cobb's best case scenario? I can think of one. Will Cobb opt for the best short-term deal with the highest guaranteed sum for the immediate future, ala Greg Jennings? Will Cobb roll those dice or does he have more thoughtful and ambitious plan for playing longer and earning more in a more promising, longer lasting productive situation?
Distill it down even further. This is a draft that allegedly has several potential stars at WR. That's plural. A team needing a WR not only has numerous choices to fill their gaps but they can also get that WR through the draft who will be more cap-friendly over the next 3-4 years. And, they would not have Cobb's signing affecting their draft formula for receiving compensatory picks next year should that be a factor. For them, Cobb may represent a luxury more than a necessity thanks to the availability of young talent through the immediate draft. The rookie learning curve for a draftee may be worth enduring in order to stay healthy enough cap-wise to secure other needed championship puzzle pieces. Nobody has it all and everybody needs something. The problem is, nobody can afford everything. Pay a slot receiver $12 million when you may get the whole WR package for less through the draft? Sacrifice other needed players to attain just one guy? He better be special.
This is not a rap on Cobb nor an argument against signing him. I think he's terrific and a definite keeper, but only at the right price for both Cobb and the Packers. Cobb is not enjoying all the leverage in this situation. A talented WR in the draft any Cobb-signing-team passes on drafting causes a domino effect of making one more talented receiver available for somebody else to pick-up via the draft, maybe even the Packers. If Cobb wants too much money -- higher than the more versatile Jordy Nelson receives -- then it may be wise for the Packers to move-0n. They'll survive just as they did when Cobb was injured. They did not draft Adams, Abbrederis and Janis because Thompson is short-sighted and impulsive. He must have been preparing for something to have drafted so many in one year.
