Peter King mentions in this round table discussion that Cobb will stay in GB

[7thFloorRA]

I still want Jacoby Jones. He is cheap, no draft pick attached to signing him and he can return kicks with the best of them.

 

[XPack]

It's ridiculous that we should expect anyone to stay for a hypothetical 25% reduced rate of pay just because we think he should want to play here.

It's not. What we can promise him is 9m plus playoff/SB. Surely for a player, that would be a factor whilst choosing?

 

[Mondio]

I suspect it's not going to come down to 3 million a year in guaranteed money. I think the Packers will give him a competitive offer with guaranteed money. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 3 year deal. If anyone is offering 12 million more over a 4 year contract in guaranteed money, then good for him. I'd rather not get involved in that. I can't imagine many other teams will either. If anyone blows it out of the water it will be with ridiculous end of contract years where everyone knows he'd be cut or restructure. I think those types of deals are largely gone these days. Everyone is realizing you can't play with cap money that far out and get away with it very long, and players are realizing it's better to go shorter and get more guarantees.

 

[sschind]

I will take a small step backwards next year over being in cap hell the next 4-5 years because of a ridiculous contract to Cobb.

I don't think Cobb will ever have as good of a season as he did last year. That was the perfect situation for him to succeed and he did. He had Jordy drawing corner and safety coverage on many plays allowing him soft zones and single coverage. He also had an MVP Qb throwing to him. He was also healthy all year. I just think we saw his ceiling. It was a great ceiling but still not worth 12.

2 million per year is going to put us in cap hell? I say 2 million because that is about what I would expect the difference to be between what we offer and what Cobb gets whether its 8 vs 10 or 9 vs 11. I would be OK with paying him 10 but I doubt we will get him for 8. IMO that leaves somewhere in the 9 million dollar range and I think it is worth having the peace of mind that our WRs are set for the next few years.

I honestly don't think even 12 would put us in cap hell but I agree we should not pay him 12 or even 11. I doubt he gets that much though. I'm guessing that we will get him for around 9-9.5 or he will sign elsewhere for 10-10.5. I think he would give us that much of a hometown discount. Give him a tick over what we gave Jordy to soothe his ego and guarantee a couple of million more than the other team and I think he takes our offer. Of course a lot of that may depend on the team making the offer. He may look at catching passes from Andrew luck as just as beneficial as catching passes from Aaron Rodgers.

Lets say we offer 8 and he walks. Unless we try to replace him with a rookie we are likely going to have to pony up 4-5 million in FA to get anyone with anything even half way close to his ability and we will save 3-4 million. I don't think the savings is worth the risk.

 

[AmishMafia]

The problem with letting Cobb walk is not that we might be able to replace him or his production the problem is we might not be able to replace him or his production. In other words we know what we have now. Two top tier WRs, a promising second year man in Adams and a couple of other 2nd year guys with promise. If we let him walk we might end up even better at the WR position (I doubt it but it could happen) but we might end up far worse. Signing Cobb now means our WR position is taken care of for 3 more years. Not resigning him means we have a big question mark not only this year but in the future. The question is how much is 3 years of stability worth? To me that is worth 3 or 4 million dollars and I think we can afford it.

Im all for resigning Cobb, but $12m is too much.

People were all worried when we lost Driver, Jones, and Jennings too. We had 2 years of great WR drafts and this one looks pretty decent. I think the market in FA WRs is going to be soft and we get Cobb for a reasonable amount. But if we dont, i think we will have a good shot at finding another WR or two to take over.

 

[HardRightEdge]

McCarthy's been talking up Janis:

http://www.packersnews.com/story/sp...hy-expects-janis-to-take-a-big-step/23736557/

Interestingly, this piece was written during the Combine when Cobb's alleged $12 mil/year demand was made. While the demand may be a negotiating plow, it's certainly worth taking seriously as a signal he'll possibly test the market.

Wood says, "McCarthy expects Janis to "take a big step" through the offseason. The young receiver has all the physical tools. If Janis puts everything together, his potential could turn into something special."

"Obviously, I think we all saw his vertical speed," McCarthy said. "He's an extremely physical young man. He's an Olympian in the weight room. He's got a lot of raw skill, and I look for him to make that jump. He has to use that catching radius, and he has the type of body type you really like."

"Probably after Thanksgiving, I thought Jeff really picked it up," McCarthy said. "He was more comfortable, and so I look for him to take a step. He's got to play with extension. That's the one thing he has to do a better job of, but you can see it on the scout team, and at the end of the year he was running some really good routes."

Not using his "catching radius" is, I believe, code for body catching, something I noted from the clips after he was drafted. In the World According to Rodgers, Job #1 is keeping the ball away from defenders and "throwing open" receivers. Division-II-open is one thing; to be "NFL-open" extending for the ball is not optional.

While body catching is a big hurdle to jump, it's always worth noting when McCarthy talks up one developmental player to the exclusion of others. I'm reminded of last preseason where one of the beat writers did a rundown of the developmental LBs on the roster while omitting Barrington from the analysis. I noted it at the time because McCarthy had talked up Barrington on a couple of occasions to the exclusion of other developmental guys. And we saw where that led.

We tend to think of slot receivers as compact and quick...like Cobb or even the smaller phone-booth-catchers. It's worth considering that Nelson, with nearly identical physical dimensions as Janis', ran about half his routes out of the slot in 2013 according to PFF, to such an effect they named him their All Pro slot receiver.

Further, Cobb and the slot guys before him have never been used in this offense in the way they're used on other teams, notably New England where the series of small phone booth receivers have been used heavily in short slants for ball control. Compare Cobb's 14.1 per catch last season to Edelman's 10.6, Amendola's 7.4 or Welker's career 11.0. The Packer's passing offense is first and foremost a downfield game according the guy who knows best...Rodgers.

If Cobb is not re-signed, Janis will get a hard look for the slot role.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The one thing the Packers lose with Cobb that I don't think has been noted in this thread is his broken play ability. He makes a lot of hay when Rodgers extends plays. For his sake, if he decides to go elsewhere, he should weight the QB's mobility and accuracy on the run. That's assuming he considers continued high productivity on a par with the $$$$. Some guys don't.

 

[sschind]

Im all for resigning Cobb, but $12m is too much.

People were all worried when we lost Driver, Jones, and Jennings too. We had 2 years of great WR drafts and this one looks pretty decent. I think the market in FA WRs is going to be soft and we get Cobb for a reasonable amount. But if we dont, i think we will have a good shot at finding another WR or two to take over.

Unless you go back to 2008 I'm not sure what two years of great WR drafts are you referring to? 2006 we got Jennings, 2007 nothing, 2008 we got Nelson 2009 nothing. 2010 nothing, 2011 we got Cobb 2012 nothing, 2013 nothing, 2014 Adams looks decent. In 9 drafts we got 3 big hits a probable and a couple of potentials.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The one thing the Packers lose with Cobb that I don't think has been noted in this thread is his broken play ability. He makes a lot of hay when Rodgers extends plays. For his sake, if he decides to go elsewhere, he should weight the QB's mobility and accuracy on the run. That's assuming he considers continued high productivity on a par with the $$$$. Some guys don't.

I couldn't agree more HRE.......Playing on offense with Aaron is complicated. Not sure how many times he audibles at the line or has a broken play with the ability to find a receiver, but it has to be above average. Having someone familiar with Aaron and the offense is a huge plus and worth more than just signing a guy with equal talent from another team. How much is that intangible worth?

 

[HardRightEdge]

I couldn't agree more HRE.......Playing on offense with Aaron is complicated. Not sure how many times he audibles at the line or has a broken play with the ability to find a receiver, but it has to be above average. Having someone familiar with Aaron and the offense is a huge plus and worth more than just signing a guy with equal talent from another team. How much is that intangible worth?

Of all Cobb's stat's from last season, the ones I'm most impressed with are:

78% of catches going for first downs
56% of targets going for first downs
72% of targets resulting in catches
43% of yards were after the catch

Those were league leading numbers among all WRs with starter-level productivity except for Tate's YAC. I'm not seeing anybody do better in the other categories.

Taken together with gross yards and TDs, he'd be the league leader in productivity+efficiency quotient if there were such a number. I doubt his agent overlooked these numbers; they'd be a basis for the $12 mil/year demand if there is in fact such a demand.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I think we all know its going to come down to how close the Packers can get to another teams best offer. It will be up to Cobb to decide if the difference is worth staying in GB with what could be a SB team. If a team like the Seahawks or Patriots were going after him, I think the money would have to be relatively equal. Although I would much rather have AR throwing to me then Russell Wilson.

That being said, if anyone offers him close to what the Packers could have tagged him for, I don't see them switching gears and going that high.

 

[Pack12TX]

Makes you wonder what Cobb was talking about when he said don't believe everything you see on the internet. Are we not supposed to believe the Packers are willing to let him test free agency which is what seems to have prompted the tweet or are we not supposed to believe he is looking for 9 million.

Sometimes I wish I could just turn all this off and tune in at the end of August and see what we have to go with.

sschind - - man, I wish it was that easy.

 

[TJV]

Unless you go back to 2008 I'm not sure what two years of great WR drafts are you referring to? 2006 we got Jennings, 2007 nothing, 2008 we got Nelson 2009 nothing. 2010 nothing, 2011 we got Cobb 2012 nothing, 2013 nothing, 2014 Adams looks decent. In 9 drafts we got 3 big hits a probable and a couple of potentials.

I made this response to a similar post of yours: “Thompson has done incredibly well when picking a WR in the first three rounds. In addition to Cobb (2nd), he’s picked Nelson (2nd), Jones (3rd), Jennings (2nd), and Terrence Murphy (2nd). The only “miss” in the group is Murphy and that’s only because of injury IMO: I think he was destined to be a very good WR. If Adams turns out into the WR I expect, that’ll be 6 good/very good WRs Thompson has found in the second and third rounds of 10 drafts. My point is there is reason for optimism when Thompson picks a WR in the first 3 rounds.”

When you post “2009, 2010, and 2012 “nothing” I’m sure you aren’t criticizing Thompson’s “WR picks” in drafts he didn’t select one so I don’t know what the point of mentioning those years was. If you go back to the last nine drafts (eliminating 2005 for some reason) Thompson has picked 4 WRs in the second round and IMO hit on each and every one (I saw enough of Adams to include him). I also believe James Jones more than justified his draft status as a third rounder. So IMO the evidence is overwhelming that when Thompson picks a WR in the first three rounds of the draft there is reason for significant optimism. If you accept that it doesn’t make sense to criticize his WR picks when he doesn’t make them or when lower round WRs don’t work I’m not sure what your point is.

Here’s a list of WRs drafted by Thompson and the round they were selected:
2005: 2nd Terence Murphy; 6th Craig Bragg
2006: 2nd Greg Jennings; 4th Cory Rodgers
2007: 3rd James Jones; 5th David Clowney
2008: 2nd Jordy Nelson; 7th Brett Swain
2009: None.
2010: None.
2011: 2nd Randall Cobb
2012: None.
2013: 7th Charles Johnson; 7th Kevin Dorsey
2014: 2nd Davante Adams; 5th Jared Abbrederis; 7th Jeff Janis

(BTW, I’ve strongly advocated retaining Cobb and Thompson’s success drafting WRs doesn’t change that.)

 

[adambr2]

It's ridiculous that we should expect anyone to stay for a hypothetical 25% reduced rate of pay just because we think he should want to play here.

It's not. What we can promise him is 9m plus playoff/SB. Surely for a player, that would be a factor whilst choosing?

I'm sure to many players, it is. To others, it might be further down on the list. Again, it is so easy to prioritize things for Randall Cobb from our perspective when it isn't our money and isn't our lives. This isn't something he enjoys watching on Sunday, this is his career. This is his life. How big of a factor is climate? Big city? Taxes? Proximity to family? And obviously, money. Yet we always seem to just throw these factors to the side and assume that playing for a great franchise with a great QB is above all, because it's not our career and not our life, it's just what we enjoy watching.

To essentially cast stones at a guy if he won't leave $2-3M per year on the table to play here is not something I will ever understand and not something we can assume we would do if we had the same opportunities.

 

[7thFloorRA]

I wish more guys represented themselves. Didn't Jordy represent himself? The agents only care about $$$$. I find it very hard to believe that they ever consider the quality of NFL life for their client.

 

[TJV]

I wish more guys represented themselves. Didn't Jordy represent himself? The agents only care about $$$$. I find it very hard to believe that they ever consider the quality of NFL life for their client.

The agents work for the players so the players are ultimately in charge of the negotiations. If the player tells the agent playing close to family, and/or in a warm climate, and/or in a state with no income taxes, and/or in a big city (or not) are the priorities the agent should take that into consideration. If the agent doesn't then it's the player's responsibility to find one who will.

I'm fine with players representing themselves if they prefer but I have no problem with players hiring professionals to negotiate for them since either the player or the agent will be sitting across the table from a professional negotiating on behalf of the team.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I made this response to a similar post of yours: “Thompson has done incredibly well when picking a WR in the first three rounds. In addition to Cobb (2nd), he’s picked Nelson (2nd), Jones (3rd), Jennings (2nd), and Terrence Murphy (2nd). The only “miss” in the group is Murphy and that’s only because of injury IMO: I think he was destined to be a very good WR. If Adams turns out into the WR I expect, that’ll be 6 good/very good WRs Thompson has found in the second and third rounds of 10 drafts. My point is there is reason for optimism when Thompson picks a WR in the first 3 rounds.”

When you post “2009, 2010, and 2012 “nothing” I’m sure you aren’t criticizing Thompson’s “WR picks” in drafts he didn’t select one so I don’t know what the point of mentioning those years was. If you go back to the last nine drafts (eliminating 2005 for some reason) Thompson has picked 4 WRs in the second round and IMO hit on each and every one (I saw enough of Adams to include him). I also believe James Jones more than justified his draft status as a third rounder. So IMO the evidence is overwhelming that when Thompson picks a WR in the first three rounds of the draft there is reason for significant optimism. If you accept that it doesn’t make sense to criticize his WR picks when he doesn’t make them or when lower round WRs don’t work I’m not sure what your point is.

Here’s a list of WRs drafted by Thompson and the round they were selected:
2005: 2nd Terence Murphy; 6th Craig Bragg
2006: 2nd Greg Jennings; 4th Cory Rodgers
2007: 3rd James Jones; 5th David Clowney
2008: 2nd Jordy Nelson; 7th Brett Swain
2009: None.
2010: None.
2011: 2nd Randall Cobb
2012: None.
2013: 7th Charles Johnson; 7th Kevin Dorsey
2014: 2nd Davante Adams; 5th Jared Abbrederis; 7th Jeff Janis

(BTW, I’ve strongly advocated retaining Cobb and Thompson’s success drafting WRs doesn’t change that.)

Yes, Adams did remarkably well for a rookie in this offense. While "making the jump" in the second year is an iffy proposition for players who got few if any snaps, we saw enough of Adams to believe the jump should be expected.

Yes, Thompson should retain Cobb...but not at $12 mil per year. While Shields got paid over Williams, the latter had a couple of injury-affected sub-par seasons. Paying Cobb over Nelson's $9.75 mil/year deal is truly disruptive to salary discipline and is out of scale.

It's more important to get Bulaga signed, the cover corner of choice signed and shoring up the front 7.

 

[AKCheese]

The truth is WR is a pretty replaceable cog in the wheel. None of GBs guys are elite types, we probably paid too much for Jordy which probably now has Cobb wanting more money than is probably prudent to give him. If Cobb is too spendy he can be replaced, lotta WRs out there who are pretty decent, and they will probably be MORE decent with #12 throwing to them.

 

[7thFloorRA]

What is the easiest thing for the Pack to replace? WR. They grow on trees with this organization. When it gets to being stupid money like 12 per then I would rather grow another WR and spend the money in spots where this team struggles to develop talent.

 

[sschind]

I made this response to a similar post of yours: “Thompson has done incredibly well when picking a WR in the first three rounds. In addition to Cobb (2nd), he’s picked Nelson (2nd), Jones (3rd), Jennings (2nd), and Terrence Murphy (2nd). The only “miss” in the group is Murphy and that’s only because of injury IMO: I think he was destined to be a very good WR. If Adams turns out into the WR I expect, that’ll be 6 good/very good WRs Thompson has found in the second and third rounds of 10 drafts. My point is there is reason for optimism when Thompson picks a WR in the first 3 rounds.”

When you post “2009, 2010, and 2012 “nothing” I’m sure you aren’t criticizing Thompson’s “WR picks” in drafts he didn’t select one so I don’t know what the point of mentioning those years was. If you go back to the last nine drafts (eliminating 2005 for some reason) Thompson has picked 4 WRs in the second round and IMO hit on each and every one (I saw enough of Adams to include him). I also believe James Jones more than justified his draft status as a third rounder. So IMO the evidence is overwhelming that when Thompson picks a WR in the first three rounds of the draft there is reason for significant optimism. If you accept that it doesn’t make sense to criticize his WR picks when he doesn’t make them or when lower round WRs don’t work I’m not sure what your point is.

Here’s a list of WRs drafted by Thompson and the round they were selected:
2005: 2nd Terence Murphy; 6th Craig Bragg
2006: 2nd Greg Jennings; 4th Cory Rodgers
2007: 3rd James Jones; 5th David Clowney
2008: 2nd Jordy Nelson; 7th Brett Swain
2009: None.
2010: None.
2011: 2nd Randall Cobb
2012: None.
2013: 7th Charles Johnson; 7th Kevin Dorsey
2014: 2nd Davante Adams; 5th Jared Abbrederis; 7th Jeff Janis

(BTW, I’ve strongly advocated retaining Cobb and Thompson’s success drafting WRs doesn’t change that.)

TJV- I remember that dressing down you gave me and no I am not criticizing ANY of Teds drafts when it comes to WRs. My comments this time were directed at Amish who said we had 2 great WR drafts and 2014 is looking good as well (I agree with that part.) I was questioning how far back he was going since it would have had to be all the way back to 2008 to get 2 great drafts. Also, if Cobb walks and you look at all those great drafts we had at WR only one of those WRs is still with the team. Draft and develop seems to be Draft and Develop and Delete when it comes to Teds WR policy. It just seems to me that so many people think every WR Ted drafts turns to gold and while that may be true with his high round picks it is not so with his later picks. With that in mind the way I see it if you let Cobb walk you have to address the position in the first 3 rounds probably even 1st or 2nd. If you keep him it lets you focus on other areas and if a WR just happens to to be the BPA at any time you can take him.

I think some people are getting so hung up on the money we might have to pay Cobb they are forgetting the benefits having him gives us during the draft and even during FA and I am not talking about his production, although that is important. Losing him means we have to replace him and that won't be free negating some of the money we save by not signing him. Losing him means we have to address the WR position once again at the potential risk of neglecting another position.

Lastly, to those saying we lost Jennings and Driver and we were fine and we lost Jones and we were fine I would say our WR corps was deeper then. If Cobb walks we have 1 proven WR we can count on who doesn't have question marks. I think Adams will be good but a lot of people thought Boykin was going to be good too and being that he is a 2nd year man I don't think you can say he (Adams) doesn't have question marks.

I understand that we probably shouldn't pay him 12 million. At some point you do have to say enough is enough, what you have been offered, or what you are asking, is too much. I just don't think 9 million or 9.2 or 9.5 or even 9.8 is too much for all the options and freedom that having Randall Cobb on our roster gives us.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I wish more guys represented themselves. Didn't Jordy represent himself? The agents only care about $$$$. I find it very hard to believe that they ever consider the quality of NFL life for their client.

Nelson was represented by Erik Burkhardt of Select Sports Group. This is not some buddy or family attorney. Select has $340 million in NFL contracts under management according Forbes. Nelson also has a booking agent for appearances and endorsements.

Most players seek to maximize their earning potential even if they have a strong attachment to the their current team. They're typically not in a position or have the skills to identify interested teams, explore what the market will bear and make a compelling sales pitch to the incumbent team or others. Agents get something like 5 - 10% of pay and earn it in most cases.

Look at it from the players perspective. When you see the franchise buying up gas stations for $1 million a pop, or most recently a hotel for $2.5 mil, just to acquire the dirt under them in advance of constructing a lodging and entertainment complex, why would you take a big discount?

Nelson took a minor discount, but then again it was an extension. When the player minimizes his risks under an extension, there's a reasonable and expected price to be paid in a smaller deal than the free market would bring.

 

[sschind]

sschind - - man, I wish it was that easy.

I tried. After the Super Bowl I deleted all my NFL and Packer related bookmarks and told myself I wasn't going to look for at least a month. I knew what types of posts there would be regarding who to blame such and I just didn't want to read them. It lasted all of about 3 days before I started going back and maybe a week before I put the bookmarks back.

 

[HardRightEdge]

What is the easiest thing for the Pack to replace? WR. They grow on trees with this organization.

That's a bit too glib for my tastes.

Driver had 3, 21 and 13 catches in his first three seasons.
Jennings had 45 catches on 104 targets his rookie season as primarily a downfield option.
Jones didn't get over 50 catches until his sixth season when he scored 14 TDs.
Nelson didn't break out until his 4th. season.
Cobb had 25 catches as a rookie.
Adams had 38/446/3 as the third option. Other than Jennings, that was the best rookie year out of this group.

The point being, I don't think you can expect a rookie or a relatively cheap FA off the street to replace Cobb's numbers.

More from Adams, serviceable production from the slot and TEs, and most importantly, a consistent and reliable defense should be good for 11 wins and a playoff berth.

I'm a less concerned about missing out on 50 point blowouts and more concerned about winning close games against tough defenses and containing quality QBs...particularly in the playoffs.

 

[RRyder]

A couple arguments people need to STOP using when arguing we'll be fine losing Cobb

1: We lost Jennings, Jones n Driver and the offense didnt skip a beat.....

Driver was regulated to pure spot duty due to losing the battle with father time and really wasnt very good anymore. Jones also was on his last legs here also. The only real argument is Jennings but we actually had depth at WR n weathered it. Still wondering were our depth is if Cobb leaves. I see one promising player and the nothing but question marks after Jordy.

2: if he leaves he'll regret leaving a HoF QB and a chance at winning a SB just to make a few more million but will miss the playoffs every year and have crap QBs throwing to him.

Am I watching a different NFL? Because im pretty sure teams have been able to turn it around quickly, remember when the NFC West was horrid, and the fact that the two teams that have the most room and have to spend are Oakland and Jacksonville where both team have what I would call promising 2nd year QBs.

3: Manning, Brees and Brady look great with less then stellar WR cores so why cant Rodgers?

Manning over the years has had the Thomas's in Denver and had Harrison, Wayne and Dallas Clark in Indy. Brees with Colston and Graham. And Brady outside of Gronk and one year of Moss hasnt had anyone but lest we forget has had one of the best Olines in the league for years. Also without Gronk he didnt look MVP good either last year. All the QBs have weapons.

Im not saying pay Cobb whatever he wants but these arguments need to stop being used

 

[Vrill]

If we lose Cobb, I hope we sign Julius Thomas.