On to 2021!

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Sorry I misunderstood this before the breakdown then, you were speaking to what might be a GM's breakdown, not your own?

I was seeking what your test was if it was your breakdown out of sheer curiosity on my part.

That was my specific breakdown on my own analysis. Whether Gute or any GM/FO follows that who's to say. I have certain combine measureables as well based on position but that's A LOT of info, lol.

 

[tynimiller]

That was my specific breakdown on my own analysis. Whether Gute or any GM/FO follows that who's to say. I have certain combine measureables as well based on position but that's A LOT of info, lol.

Okay so I still have the question what is your test score you rely on?

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I was never really a RAS guy until Gute started following it, but RAS to me is somewhat overrated/overhyped.

For instance:

EQSB has a RAS of 9.84 and MVS has a RAS of 9.27, but they haven't exactly turned into perennial All-Pros.

EQSB:
Powerhouse School
Limited Production
Tests Well
Best Player Available Selection (Actually Selected Based on Need)



MVS
Small School (Transfer)
Limited Production
Tests Well
Priority UDFA (Actually Selected Based on Need)

Okay so I still have the question what is your test score you rely on?

I don't have an "end-all, be-all" score for prospects. To me, to narrow it down to one metric is just too dicey.

 

[GleefulGary]

I was under the impression Barmore is in the draft, perhaps not officially declared but it has been common knowledge no?

I never believe Bama underclassmen are declared until it’s past the deadline.

 

[GleefulGary]

I was never really a RAS guy until Gute started following it, but RAS to me is somewhat overrated/overhyped.

For instance:

EQSB has a RAS of 9.84 and MVS has a RAS of 9.27, but they haven't exactly turned into perennial All-Pros.

EQSB:
Powerhouse School
Limited Production
Tests Well
Best Player Available Selection (Actually Selected Based on Need)



MVS
Small School (Transfer)
Limited Production
Tests Well
Priority UDFA (Actually Selected Based on Need)



I don't have an "end-all, be-all" score for prospects. To me, to narrow it down to one metric is just too dicey.

Having a high RAS doesn’t mean a player is going to be great, and I don’t think anybody has said so. So acting like that’s a current theory is a straw man.

Here’s my belief system when it comes to prospects, with the understanding that there are always outliers. Almost every great player is a great athlete compared to their peers. Not every great athlete is a great player.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

Having a high RAS doesn’t mean a player is going to be great, and I don’t think anybody has said so. So acting like that’s a current theory is a straw man.

I never said it was either, I even proved that it certainly doesn't in a previous post(that you just quoted). I did however posit that Gute and the Packers' FO seem to value it more than I think they should.

 

[tynimiller]

I never said it was either, I even proved that it certainly doesn't in a previous post(that you just quoted). I did however posit that Gute and the Packers' FO seem to value it more than I think they should.

It has appeared that they first trust their board, and then one of the deciding factors if say between 4 players is the RAS

 

[GleefulGary]

I never said it was either, I even proved that it certainly doesn't in a previous post(that you just quoted). I did however posit that Gute and the Packers' FO seem to value it more than I think they should.

You said RAS is overrated and used two late round picks with a high RAS to prove it, which is more than a little biased. If anything, MVS’s high RAS should be a positive towards using RAS. He’s done far better than most WR’s selected in his range.

Anyways, the way you wrote it, it seemed like you were inferring the belief is that high RAS = good player.

With that said, I doubt you’d find very many of the great players that don’t have an above average RAS.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

I do believe that RAS is overrated and I stand by that argument. Is it a quality metric? Sure. But what I was trying to illustrate to @tynimiller is that you can't take just one metric and say, "Oh this player is going to be good".

 

[GleefulGary]

I do believe that RAS is overrated and I stand by that argument. Is it a quality metric? Sure. But what I was trying to illustrate to @tynimiller is that you can't take just one metric and say, "Oh this player is going to be good".

Sure, and that’s a fair statement, but I don’t think anybody is saying that.

 

[Dantés]

I was never really a RAS guy until Gute started following it, but RAS to me is somewhat overrated/overhyped.

For instance:

EQSB has a RAS of 9.84 and MVS has a RAS of 9.27, but they haven't exactly turned into perennial All-Pros.

EQSB:
Powerhouse School
Limited Production
Tests Well
Best Player Available Selection (Actually Selected Based on Need)

MVS
Small School (Transfer)
Limited Production
Tests Well
Priority UDFA (Actually Selected Based on Need)

I don't have an "end-all, be-all" score for prospects. To me, to narrow it down to one metric is just too dicey.

A few thoughts.

1-- I think athletic metrics are most useful for ruling guys out. If you can look at historical data, identify minimums below which guys statistically don't succeed in the league, and then avoid those guys, you're winnowing a huge pool of prospects into a smaller one, from which you have a better chance to draw successful players.

2-- When picking late in the draft, I'm all for big swings on guys with high end athletic scores. Beyond the 3rd round, the odds that any player is going to become a good starter, or even a useful role player, is very low. So given that it's a low % proposition regardless, I think it makes sense to take the small edge that comes with high end talent.

3-- Your example of MVS is actually self-defeating. Finding that production at pick #174 is a really good pick. No WR drafted after him has come close to what he's done in the NFL to this point, and you really have to back allll the way up to pick #81 (Michael Gallup) in the 3rd round to find a guy who's been better. 24 receivers were drafted after Gallup, and MVS is the best one. So it would actually be an argument in favor of RAS and other athletic measures, not against it.

 

[tynimiller]

By nearly every stat except catch % MVS has only been out performed by DJ Moore, Calvin Ridley and Michael Gallup. He is better than a plethora of 2nd rounders and 3rds, 4ths, 5ths to boot.

 

[Favre>Rodgers259]

A few thoughts.

1-- I think athletic metrics are most useful for ruling guys out. If you can look at historical data, identify minimums below which guys statistically don't succeed in the league, and then avoid those guys, you're winnowing a huge pool of prospects into a smaller one, from which you have a better chance to draw successful players.

2-- When picking late in the draft, I'm all for big swings on guys with high end athletic scores. Beyond the 3rd round, the odds that any player is going to become a good starter, or even a useful role player, is very low. So given that it's a low % proposition regardless, I think it makes sense to take the small edge that comes with high end talent.

3-- Your example of MVS is actually self-defeating. Finding that production at pick #174 is a really good pick. No WR drafted after him has come close to what he's done in the NFL to this point, and you really have to back allll the way up to pick #81 (Michael Gallup) in the 3rd round to find a guy who's been better. 24 receivers were drafted after Gallup, and MVS is the best one. So it would actually be an argument in favor of RAS and other athletic measures, not against it.

I mostly agree with your post; and yes, relative to his draft position MVS would be seen as a success. Maybe I need to be more specific, with my arguments because you guys take it on tangents that I don't foresee. MVS has the measureables to be great in the NFL, but because of technique/mental issues, he seems permanently entrenched in that "high ceiling/low floor" role.

From my own "Armchair GM" perspective, I abhor those kinds of players, because that "low floor", always seems to rear its ugly head at the worst of times. Should we make it to the Super Bowl against the Bills/Chiefs, I fully expect them to completely shut down MVS, but who knows he could surprise us out of nowhere in the 3rd Quarter with 1 catch for 55 yards after doing nothing all game, just to disappear for the rest of the half.

Again, I never said RAS isn't useful, I just believe its value is somewhat overstated. You even said it yourself, "and other athletic measures". My argument was you can't just SOLELY use RAS and say, "yeah this guy's gonna be good". If anything, despite other measureables, tape, etc. You MIGHT be willing to like you said "make a big swing" on a prospect you'd otherwise overlook.

 

[Dantés]

I mostly agree with your post; and yes, relative to his draft position MVS would be seen as a success. Maybe I need to be more specific, with my arguments because you guys take it on tangents that I don't foresee. MVS has the measureables to be great in the NFL, but because of technique/mental issues, he seems permanently entrenched in that "high ceiling/low floor" role.

From my own "Armchair GM" perspective, I abhor those kinds of players, because that "low floor", always seems to rear its ugly head at the worst of times. Should we make it to the Super Bowl against the Bills/Chiefs, I fully expect them to completely shut down MVS, but who knows he could surprise us out of nowhere in the 3rd Quarter with 1 catch for 55 yards after doing nothing all game, just to disappear for the rest of the half.

Again, I never said RAS isn't useful, I just believe its value is somewhat overstated. You even said it yourself, "and other athletic measures". My argument was you can't just SOLELY use RAS and say, "yeah this guy's gonna be good". If anything, despite other measureables, tape, etc. You MIGHT be willing to like you said "make a big swing" on a prospect you'd otherwise overlook.

Yeah, I don't think anyone can argue with that point-- no single metric, RAS or otherwise, explains everything.

But while I understand that MVS's weaknesses are frustrating at times, I will take that kind of value that late in the draft every time.

 

[ARPackFan]

I think the Packers should double down and pick another project QB in the first round of the 2021 draft.

 

[Ma_GB_12]

Nothing against anyone!

Like I said long time ago, Front Office has to go, along with the change in the Organization structure- should have a majority owner for a better roster and for a better chance for the Packers, including A-Rod to go to SB, which we missed again this time (more about this in coming sections)!

Defense:
- Who on earth will make a call just like that just before half-time that led to a TD!
- I remember Packers GM saying, going to para-phrase here.."we have long receivers.." LOL. Looks like this logic applied here too. Having a cornerback lanky doesn't make one an elite!

Offense:
- What on earth of a decision was that at 8 yard line to go with a Field goal in a Championship game? This tells the mindset of the Coach! Enough of hearing- have to look at the tape....really? going to look at the tape now?

I might not be a certified Fortune teller, but many of my predictions have come true in the past and I knew we all would see this day (same as last year)! Like I said before, A-Rod is the GOAT in my view and better than Brady. So, with deepest sorrow, I am going to say this (have been a fan of Packers for more than two decades): it is time A-Rod moves to a different organization with a better roster and coaching staff to win at least another SB. If A-Rod makes a move this offseason, I will personal go and wish him good luck before the SB game, if this helps A-Rod in winning another SB.


Cheers!

 

[tynimiller]

Nothing against anyone!

Like I said long time ago, Front Office has to go, along with the change in the Organization structure- should have a majority owner for a better roster and for a better chance for the Packers, including A-Rod to go to SB, which we missed again this time (more about this in coming sections)!

Defense:
- Who on earth will make a call just like that just before half-time that led to a TD!
- I remember Packers GM saying, going to para-phrase here.."we have long receivers.." LOL. Looks like this logic applied here too. Having a cornerback lanky doesn't make one an elite!

Offense:
- What on earth of a decision was that at 8 yard line to go with a Field goal in a Championship game? This tells the mindset of the Coach! Enough of hearing- have to look at the tape....really? going to look at the tape now?

I might not be a certified Fortune teller, but many of my predictions have come true in the past and I knew we all would see this day (same as last year)! Like I said before, A-Rod is the GOAT in my view and better than Brady. So, with deepest sorrow, I am going to say this (have been a fan of Packers for more than two decades): it is time A-Rod moves to a different organization with a better roster and coaching staff to win at least another SB. If A-Rod makes a move this offseason, I will personal go and wish him good luck before the SB game, if this helps A-Rod in winning another SB.


Cheers!

I believe you meant for this to be in the normal forum section and not the On to 2021 thread in the Draft Section.

 

[Poppa San]

should have a majority owner

How is that majority owner thing working out in Detroit and Minnesota? Or most anywhere else lately outside of New England?

 

[GleefulGary]

So, what do people think are our top needs?

I think CB, OT, and iDL are the top for me.

Gonna need some depth at edge to replace Preston. Would be nice to get a WR with some juice, but honestly, there are other positions that matter more.

I was pleasantly surprised by Barnes and Martin at ILB. I’d think they’d like to add a veteran, but I would really love a LB like Surratt or Jabril Cox. Riley Cole looks very interesting too.

Looks like the draft has lots of OL and WR help. Top heavy at CB. Some good safeties and versatile DB’s.

 

[tynimiller]

So, what do people think are our top needs?

I think CB, OT, and iDL are the top for me.

Gonna need some depth at edge to replace Preston. Would be nice to get a WR with some juice, but honestly, there are other positions that matter more.

I was pleasantly surprised by Barnes and Martin at ILB. I’d think they’d like to add a veteran, but I would really love a LB like Surratt or Jabril Cox. Riley Cole looks very interesting too.

Looks like the draft has lots of OL and WR help. Top heavy at CB. Some good safeties and versatile DB’s.

CB, OL and iDL are the clear and ahead biggest holes that need figured out. Now I would say depending on plans of management OL could slide easily down and beholding hands with WR for me and also ILB/S depth just behind those two.

IF something happens that we should retain Linsley, Wagner is still gone that scenario slides it down. Organization could also be thinking Bahk and Turner at tackles, Jenkins at Center and Runyon and Patrick at guard "could be the plan" and back-ups/depth with potential to compete to start could be the plan. Hanson could be a dark horse candidate at center for us too. How comfortable are we in house controls where I am on OL.

CB and iDL for me are my focus, but I'm also not a fan of focusing so much you lose focus of the overall drafting process...

With the cutting of Preston I believe is nearly 100% possible Edge depth also becomes a need for sure as well, someone to split the back up snaps with Garvin in 2021 or leap frog Garvin.

 

[Mondio]

So, what do people think are our top needs?

I think CB, OT, and iDL are the top for me.

Gonna need some depth at edge to replace Preston. Would be nice to get a WR with some juice, but honestly, there are other positions that matter more.

I was pleasantly surprised by Barnes and Martin at ILB. I’d think they’d like to add a veteran, but I would really love a LB like Surratt or Jabril Cox. Riley Cole looks very interesting too.

Looks like the draft has lots of OL and WR help. Top heavy at CB. Some good safeties and versatile DB’s.

DB, 2 of them probably in rounds 1-4. OT. Wagner should be gone. Turner is stop gap there at best. BakhT is out at least half the year. We need a good one.

DL and it really could be anywhere. i think Preston will be gone and if you're 3-4 and dont' have a good rotation of at least 3 OLB's you don't have enough IMO. but we obviously need better interior guys too. If Keke can stay on the field I think he's going to keep getting better.

I can't really complain with your list, it's basically mine. WR's are after that in the draft for me.

 

[Poppa San]

So, what do people think are our top needs?

New DC. New ST coach. And after that in no particular order: new punter, kick returner/slot specialist/ gadget player, long snapper, cheaper kicker, #2CB, iDL(2), #3OLB, speed back, RT, #3WR, #3TE, third iOL, #3CB.
Keep the medical trainer staff as they seem to have a handle on not being the team with the longest injury list year after year.

 

[PackFan2]

So, what do people think are our top needs?

I think CB, OT, and iDL are the top for me.

Gonna need some depth at edge to replace Preston. Would be nice to get a WR with some juice, but honestly, there are other positions that matter more.

I was pleasantly surprised by Barnes and Martin at ILB. I’d think they’d like to add a veteran, but I would really love a LB like Surratt or Jabril Cox. Riley Cole looks very interesting too.

Looks like the draft has lots of OL and WR help. Top heavy at CB. Some good safeties and versatile DB’s.

Off season! Lets freakenn gooo!!
Top needs: 1) We Need new DC (But not a surprise if Pettine stays), 2) new ST Coordinator. 3) Bring in a competent Punter or proven vet Punter. 4)We need a home run hitter on punt/kick returns. 5)Need a #2 Corner

Not so urgent but much needed: Add in a cheap veteran RB
Draft: DL,CB,OL,RB,WR

^I really liked Surratt last season (super raw but talented), I'm glad to see him improve, and is one of the top LBs this year. Can't wait to examine this years' players.

 

[PackFan2]

I do believe that RAS is overrated and I stand by that argument. Is it a quality metric? Sure. But what I was trying to illustrate to @tynimiller is that you can't take just one metric and say, "Oh this player is going to be good".

I don't mind RAS but I do think it's overrated. I think I posted something about a longitudinal study (NFL Draft data from 1999-2015) looking at players' measurements and Career Approximate Value to their position. The strongest predictors were broad, 3-cone, & 40yrd (something packers also take into account). However, these 8 measurements only explained 4% of players' CAV. BUT IT'S Still 4% to work with. RAS is constructed from some of the measurements -- Take it as it is.. the draft is a cr@pshoot and we're all in it for the long haul. I like to look at player measurements then see if they "play up" to it or not. My eye test I guess lol (and it ain't always right *AHEM my Justin Jefferson Take).


https://nfldraftcombineanalysis.wordpress.com/

 

[Sunshinepacker]

Top draft needs for this team:
1) Corner - Jaire is AMAZING...after that the cupboard is empty, team might be forced to start Chandon Sullivan at corner with, as of now, Redmond being the nickel corner? That's, uh, frankly terrible.
2) Dline - Packers have one elite pass rusher in Z, an up-and-coming pass rusher in Gary, and Clark is an elite NT which means he pushes the pocket but I wouldn't call him an elite pass rusher. As we all saw against the Bucs, there was very little interior pass rush and that needs to change. Not saying the team needs an Aaron Donald (though it would be nice), just a DE that can put pressure inside while Smith and Gary rush from the ends (yes, I know Z also rushes from the interior but it's on stunts pretty often and that's generally not as reliable).
3) LB - a decent ILB that can cover would be nice but the ILB position is not the same level of impact on a defense that corner or dline is.
4) WR - MVS and Lazard have lessened this a bit but I do think it's still a need; an elite offense can always stress a defense with more receivers (imagine how nice it might have been to force either of the Bucs ILBs to cover Tee Higgins or Michael Pittman last weekend).