Is it time?

[milani]

Actually I was thinking a few weeks back that the period between OTA and camp opening was busier this off season than the recent past. A new QB and takes on the former one drove a lot of it. We were getting comment quantity daily what was weekly 2-4 years ago. I recall days from then with 3-5 posts.

Well, we do not have a QB controversy nor a resigning issue now. And Rodgers' injury came as a Jet. If it came as a Packer the bombs may be flying. We have a new, rather young team. There are no immediate expectations. We are just watching a green egg hatch in the hope that the little creature will fly someday.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It is being reported that Carr signed a 4 year $150 deal with the Saints.

Saints, QB Derek Carr agree to four-year, $150 million contract

Not sure where to put this and if anyone really cares but.... Derek Carr announced that he was retiring today, after 11 years in the NFL. There was a lot of questions as to whether he would even play this season due to the labral tear he suffered in March. Evidently, they also found a significant degenerative changes to his rotator cuff at the same time.

It will be interesting to see how the dead cap is dealt with. Currently, I am seeing that he on the books, he is a $80.132M dead cap hit to the Saints.

Also interesting to note, his contract called for this:

• $30M 2025 salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2025 (injury guaranteed at signing)

 

[Pkrjones]

This will be VERY interesting to watch play out. Saints already have $52mil dead $ on the '25 books. Can they stretch out Carr's $80mil dead $ as a post 6/01? Per OTC they only have about $32mil in cap saving ability on rostered players in the top 51 IF they cut EVERY ONE of the cap-savers. 2 of those cuts would include QB's Rattler & Haener.

No cap space for Willis' $1.408mil. Their situation is REALLY screwed!

*** EDIT ***
If they cut all of those players on 6/02 they'll only save $42mil in '25, but would then push significantly more into their already -$42mil in '26.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This will be VERY interesting to watch play out. Saints already have $52mil dead $ on the '25 books. Can they stretch out Carr's $80mil dead $ as a post 6/01? Per OTC they only have about $32mil in cap saving ability on rostered players in the top 51 IF they cut EVERY ONE of the cap-savers. 2 of those cuts would include QB's Rattler & Haener.

No cap space for Willis' $1.408mil. Their situation is REALLY screwed!

My bad.....I just looked at his contract details again. I must not have had enough coffee.....the current dead cap is $50+M not $80+M.


Still, this will be interesting to watch. Since he retired due to medical reasons as a result of injuries he suffered while playing for the Saints, I don't see the Saints being able to get back any amounts that were already paid out or guaranteed.

I will say it again, for probably the 100th time, these huge contracts, with big guarantees can sink a team. That situation gets even worse, when a team does what the Saints did with Carr, push a good portion of those hits out into future years.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

This was posted an hour ago....I still want to see how it shakes out, since the article kind of skims over the actual dead cap accounting.

This article talks about Carr keeping $10M of roster bonus he received in March. Yet when I look at his contract on Spotrac....it states this:

• $30M 2025 salary fully guarantees the 3rd league day of 2025 (injury guaranteed at signing)

How Derek Carr's Retirement Affects Saints Salary Cap Situation

Carr's retirement provides the Saints with some cap relief.

www.si.com

 

[Pkrjones]

My bad.....I just looked at his contract details again. I must not have had enough coffee.....the current dead cap is $50+M not $80+M.

It's $80mil total, $59mil pre-6/01 with other $20+ next year. Those numbers flip if post 6/01.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

It's $80mil total, $59mil pre-6/01 with other $20+ next year. Those numbers flip if post 6/01.

Thanks, then I didn't see it wrong! I wonder though if Spotrac has changed the numbers since I looked earlier this morning?

I see the $80M on OTC, but Spotrac now has it at $50M

Derek Carr Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money, and Contract History | Over The Cap

Derek Carr contract and salary cap details, including signing bonus, guaranteed salary, dead money, roster bonuses, and contract history

overthecap.com

 

[Pkrjones]

I see the $80M on OTC, but Spotrac now has it at $50M.

You're correct, Carr gave up his guaranteed '25 salary of $30M, but gets to keep his $10M roster bonus... so $50mil is correct outstanding $.

 

[Heyjoe4]

This will be VERY interesting to watch play out. Saints already have $52mil dead $ on the '25 books. Can they stretch out Carr's $80mil dead $ as a post 6/01? Per OTC they only have about $32mil in cap saving ability on rostered players in the top 51 IF they cut EVERY ONE of the cap-savers. 2 of those cuts would include QB's Rattler & Haener.

No cap space for Willis' $1.408mil. Their situation is REALLY screwed!

*** EDIT ***
If they cut all of those players on 6/02 they'll only save $42mil in '25, but would then push significantly more into their already -$42mil in '26.

How did the Saints land in cap hell? It can't just be Carr. Just curious.

 

[Pkrjones]

How did the Saints land in cap hell? It can't just be Carr. Just curious.

The Saints’ NFL salary cap doom spiral, explained

The Saints are in NFL salary cap hell, with no way out.

www.sbnation.com

 

[Firethorn1001]

the Saints land in cap hell? It can't just be Carr. Just curious.

Right now 3 parts bad luck (Carr, Lattimore, Thomas injuries) and 1 part stupid spending on gadget players (Taysom Hill). Plus looks like they have absolutely no flexibility on the top end to release guys because like 16 of them have a dead cap of 15M+ (Packers have like 8)

Needless to say their capologist doesn't appear to be the greatest.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Saints’ NFL salary cap doom spiral, explained

The Saints are in NFL salary cap hell, with no way out.

www.sbnation.com

Thanks Pkr. Yikes, what a cluster. It's analogous to the Bucks trading all of their first round picks, and a bunch of second rounders, to chase guys like Lillard and Crowder (remember him? I think the bucks gave up like four second round picks for him, or some ridiculous amount of draft capital.

Now they have one heathy superstar, another superstar with what could be a career-ending injury, and a lot of guys on minimum contracts. It happens. Although in the case of the Bucks, I don't see the logic of extending the GM who is responsible, Horst.

Anyway, I was surprised to see the Drew Brees' extension is part of this. He hasn't played in, I think, four years.

 

[Firethorn1001]

Anyway, I was surprised to see the Drew Brees' extension is part of this. He hasn't played in, I think, four years.

Think it was the ramifications of trying to get around the Brees extension that are causing issues with contracts/cap now and not necessarily the Bree's contract itself. Almost like they just need to do a reset and go with rookies/street free agents for a year or two and just clear the books and do a hard reset.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Right now 3 parts bad luck (Carr, Lattimore, Thomas injuries) and 1 part stupid spending on gadget players (Taysom Hill). Plus looks like they have absolutely no flexibility on the top end to release guys because like 16 of them have a dead cap of 15M+ (Packers have like 8)

Needless to say their capologist doesn't appear to be the greatest.

Yeah that's putting it mildly. I forgot about Lattimore. Even Drew Brees is still contributing to the pain, and he's been gone for years.

And it's not like the Saints have much to show for it. They will be drafting in the top five for a while. Well, if they can afford their rookies.......

"Sorry Saints' fans. We won't be participating in the NFL draft this year. We can't afford it."

 

[Heyjoe4]

Think it was the ramifications of trying to get around the Brees extension that are causing issues with contracts/cap now and not necessarily the Bree's contract itself. Almost like they just need to do a reset and go with rookies/street free agents for a year or two and just clear the books and do a hard reset.

Sure sounds like that is the only way out.

And it's fine to be able to get smaller cap hits for 4 or 5 years for a major signing bonus. There have to be lists on those. A rule isn't required beyond common sense.

It still amazes me how GB moved on so seamlessly from Rodgers while fielding very good teams. Gluten and Ball are very good at what they do.

 

[milani]

Sure sounds like that is the only way out.

And it's fine to be able to get smaller cap hits for 4 or 5 years for a major signing bonus. There have to be lists on those. A rule isn't required beyond common sense.

It still amazes me how GB moved on so seamlessly from Rodgers while fielding very good teams. Gluten and Ball are very good at what they do.

I feel bad for the Saints. I recall Carr playing at Lambeau in 2023 and getting hurt in the 3rd quarter. They had a 17-0 lead and his back up Winston, did nothing. Love brought us back to win 18-17.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The other thing to note about the Saints, they haven't been relevant for the last 4 seasons. That also corresponds to when Brees retired.

If I am the Saints Owner or GM, I look at the current team and say to myself "We are in cap hell and we don't have the roster to contend for the playoffs, so it is time to make some trades, build up our draft picks and start shedding cap."

Basically, the Saints need to have a fire sale.

 

[Pkrjones]

I feel bad for the Saints.

Don't (imho)... they created their hell 8-10 years ago & now it'll take at least another 4-5 years to get out IF they start spending responsibly. HUGE IF as they haven't had ANY fiscal responsibility in a decade.

 

[mradtke66]

The Saints could have taken their medicine when Brees retired and did a house cleaning of their old contracts. They did a lot of stuff to push out cap hits while Brees was playing. When he retired, they needed to stop doing that and cut a few players (probably a lot) to get their future lined up. IMHO, nothing with trying to keep the band together while they had Brees.

The problem was they didn’t stop. They tried to roll on by signing Carr. Because their cap was a mess, they had to stick to their old ways of getting space now at the expense of the future, and let’s be honest, Carr wasn’t quite the caliber of player to carry the team.

So they keep doing this nonsense and this past offseason, they had to restructure Carr again. Even if the players plan was to cut him, they had push out enough of his hits to the future to get under the cap and sign this years rookies.

 

[OldSchool101]

Speaking of which, the Packers currently have the 10th most remaining cap space at $31Mil.

Rarely saw that when ARod was here. It was always a constant maneuvering of converting $ to signing signing bonus’ to spread the pain. Many years we carried around $5m after signing the draft class and PS etc.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I feel bad for the Saints. I recall Carr playing at Lambeau in 2023 and getting hurt in the 3rd quarter. They had a 17-0 lead and his back up Winston, did nothing. Love brought us back to win 18-17.

I remember that game. It was looking like an embarrassing home loss for the Packers. I don't remember the Carr injury.

Seems like the NOLA FO has brought this on themselves. There were too many bad decisions for this to be bad luck. It's more like extreme incompetence. What makes it worse is the sizable increases the NFL has provided to the cap the last few years.

Makes me even more thankful for a guy like Russ Ball. He does very important work, mostly behind the scenes. He's not a news maker, but a bio story at some point would be interesting imo.

 

[OldSchool101]

Not that we have to rely on this or necessarily use it. Both the Lions ($42M) and Packers ($31m) are in positions to add more help if needed. The Vikings $16m) and Bears not so much.
The Bears went all in. I suppose they can because they benefit from a Rookie contract for a couple seasons, so they and the Vikings even out their cap next season by luxury of cheap QB $. So they even out with us across 2 seasons of projected capital.

Chicago plugged $75Mil in combined average salary across their first 4 FA signings. It left them on fumes in 2025 with $6.8M towards the top 51. GB and Detroit have more immediate Bend and if needed we can plop another $5-10m on a player(s) IF needed before trade deadline. That gets you a prorated player contract around $10-15Mil area if we need to bring 1 more player additive if we’re thinking Division leader around Week6-7

 

[OldSchool101]

Detroit and Minnesota on paper have the biggest ? It’s hard enough to maintain a 14+ Win season with returning Coaches and Players. Much less doing it switching out QB,LT or replacing Coordinators.

The Bears added some big time resources with likely 3 bonafide starting OL coming into the picture. Plus plugged the best TE from the draft. They did miss at RB though imo and that might be their demise if they are relying on Run block to change their backfield. Longhorns Roschon has a poor showing and Swift was mediocre at 3.8 per carry last year. It takes a lot of Run block to change both.

 

[OldSchool101]

The Packers went a very similar pathway to Chicago by upgrading OL. Partly by benefit of our returning Day1 2024 selection. We added SF49rs Banks, add Jordan Morgan and seriously upgraded our Depth with Belton, who’s good enough to challenge for a starter in year 1.

We have 6 guys that could likely be + starters and they have position versatility to Match it. What I’m noticing is Pundits largely focus on Watson, but mostly ignore we return our 1st Rd 2024 LT and 3rd Round 2024 RB. That like having
TWO 1st Rounders (LT, WR)
2nd Rounder (OG)
TWO 3rd Rounders (RB, WR)
One of the better RG starters in FA

The Math won’t lie. That’s at worst neutral at our 2 biggest losses snap count wise.. WR and OC.

Packers go ++++ at LT, OG, RB, WR all inside Day1-2 Draft (24-25).

You couid argue we throw a 2nd RD veteran TE in that mix also. I’m not counting on him, but to be fair Luke played Week1, Week 4 with his starting QB healthy (debatable). The rest was an injury riddled season showing after missing too much time in rehab. If he’s healthy he could be an outlier + added.


Not to mention there’s an outside possibility of fielding Golden and Watson opposite each other in the second half of the season. That’s a speed load combined with more high level competition at OL. The trenches are likely better in O and that benefits both QB, TE, WR and RB. I’d be happy if I’m Jacobs with these changes.

 

[OldSchool101]

If we stay realistic, the over/under on Offense is improving into that top 6+-area offense.

It’s a similar ares for Defense. We kept the vast majority of our D intact. I have our biggest losses as:
TJ (39% snaps)
Wilson (49% snaps)
Stokes (54% snaps)

While these were good to serviceable starters, they are not irreplaceable either.

TJ was a good run stopper, but not a consistent pass rusher either. I like the 2 Georgia players we added, it’s an interesting mix of Well Rounded or Run Stop option. It’s the only unknown imo

Eric Wilson was a good player. He did everything good. However in year 2 this gives Cooper a more consistent role in our Defense. We also have Simmons, who should be in line to win 1/2 of Eric’s snap count at rotational LB. Then we added Oliver, who’s can play as a big, physical LB. He’s deceptively quick in short areas and shoots into the play with near elite burst (1.57 10-yard was 93% tile) His athletic profile ranked #84 out of 3,182 LB’s tested at the NFL Combine. That’s pretty darn stout.
Sorrell is our Bonus player on Defense. He doesn’t really replace anyone either. He’s just a group of solid depth pieces. Behind Gary and Van Ness we have Sorrell, Ensgbare, Brenton Cox and Collin Oliver. That’s a really nice depth chart imo. It’s like we don’t have any Heroes there (yet) but we have a strong LB/DE committee approach.