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How Many Years Left for AR to replacement

Discussion in 'Green Bay Packers Fan Forum' started by PackinMSP, Dec 14, 2019.

  1. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

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    https://foxsportsradio.iheart.com/c...ill-be-the-next-andrew-luck-and-retire-early/

    I have generally taken things that Collin says with a grain of salt, as I do most sports writers/hosts but what do you all think of this?

    However, I actually might agree with him a bit as I don't see AR playing beyond 38....or maybe 40 tops

    So maybe 4 more years left

    Although he has missed some throws that he might normally make in the past, I don't think he's fallen off "that much" as people are suggesting. But there's obviously been a regression. I think if some of the Aaron Jones touchdowns become AR passing touchdowns, like in years past, then there's no discussion right now. If you swapped 3-5 of Aaron Jones rushing touchdowns and added 3-5 passing touchdowns for AR, wouldn't his stats be somewhat similar? It's all hypothetical of course. But things like Touchdown Passes and QB Rating would improve for AR obviously.


    Don't be shocked if we draft his successor this year or next.

    I really wanted Lock this past year who fell a bit but Elgton Jenkins has been awesome so I'm not dissappointed, our best LG since Sitton.

    How about Tua??? I bet you all anything he falls to late 1st round and people are calling him Russell Wilson but left handed.
     
  2. Poppa San

    Poppa San Levelheaded Staff Member Moderator

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    IMO AR's long term successor is not draft eligible yet. Probably has committed or is on scholarship though.
     
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  3. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

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    I think what will be interesting is to determine what type of quarterback will be needed to be drafted for a successor as well!

    I mean obviously the old addage of the "protypical" 6'4 pocket passer is fine but we saw Andrew Luck retire lol so it means that size doesn't always necessarily hold up

    Do you also go with a running type of QB?

    Lamar Jackson is in the midst of one of the greatest seasons of an NFL QB. Ever. Right now actually. So do you go with a running dual threat QB.

    Who knows?
     
  4. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    the way he's playing (middle third of the league in most stat categories), his inability, or refusal, to run the O as it's designed...38 tops. they could actually release him after 2021 and save $11.5m. they should get a possible bridge qb (as backup) this offseason and seriously consider drafting one in 2021.
     
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  5. WillyP

    WillyP Cheesehead

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    I dont care one iota what Colin thinks about Rodgers at this point since he does nothing but criticize Rodgers all year long to get his ratings..F*** him.......but when Rodgers says he's on the "18th hole of his career" does he mean of his career in GB or his NFL career?...Im not 100% sold he's all in with this new coach/system since his tendencies at time this year seem to reverting back to his MM days....Maybe he see's himself in a different environment to finish his career and depending on what becomes available for QB's in the upcoming draft I wouldnt be too terribly opposed to trade him after the season since he's coming off a winning season and teams will pay top dollar and or let go future high draft picks
     
  6. swhitset

    swhitset Cheesehead

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    This thread is full of speculative nonsense.
     
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  7. buggybill2003

    buggybill2003 Just chillin !

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    Of course it is but what else can they do ?
     
  8. Pkrjones

    Pkrjones Cheesehead

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    Who's to say that after 3 years under AR that Tim Boyle isn't ready to take the reigns after the 2020 season (or sooner if AR goes down)? AR's contract is front-heavy w/ negative cap until after the '20 season. If he chooses to walk or Gute elevates Boyle (or other) & cuts AR there's cap savings then.
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2019
  9. WillyP

    WillyP Cheesehead

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    In your opinion
     
  10. swhitset

    swhitset Cheesehead

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    Yep...and I suspect a few others lol.
     
  11. WillyP

    WillyP Cheesehead

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    There you go assuming again..tisk tisk
     
  12. swhitset

    swhitset Cheesehead

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    Well it certainly isn’t the first assumption made in this thread lol.
     
  13. gbgary

    gbgary Cheesehead

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    of course it is. it's about the future. :confused:
     
  14. WillyP

    WillyP Cheesehead

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    He's having trouble seeing past his green n gold glasses and wrapping his mind about what the word 'speculation' means:giggle:
     
    Last edited: Dec 14, 2019
  15. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

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    the 18th hole comment i felt inappropriate to say.... at least right now/during the season
     
  16. ARPackFan

    ARPackFan Cheesehead

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    It's a fan forum. Speculation is what we do best. :)

    I would speculate that the comment was a message to the Packers organization that the window of opportunity is closing and they better take advantage very soon. It is time to get help on the offense.
     
  17. milani

    milani Cheesehead

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    Just hope it goes better than the Favre Rodgers transition.
     
  18. Pugger

    Pugger Cheesehead

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    I wonder if his old bad habits are tough to break. When he is running the scripted plays early in the game he looks like is old self but later in the game when he starts to improvise things start to go south.
     
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  19. Pugger

    Pugger Cheesehead

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    It will if Rodgers doesn't retire and then try to worm his way back in like Favre did...
     
  20. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

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    I just hope he let's everyone know. I think there's 0% chance he plays until 45

    If he does, that's great! But I don't think he will
    it would be nice if he gives us a heads up
     
  21. PackinMSP

    PackinMSP Cheesehead

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    I just hope he let's everyone know. I think there's 0% chance he plays until 45

    If he does, that's great! But I don't think he will
    it would be nice if he gives us a heads up
     
  22. Mondio

    Mondio Cheesehead

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    or maybe the HC is great at gameplanning and when the other guys adapt to the plan, he has trouble calling a cohesive game plan on the fly? EVERYONE has a lot to learn. It's not just MLF, it's not JUST Rodgers.

    I know the answer for a couple people in here, and for you guys (you know who you are) this is rhetorical, but do you honestly think MLF calls scripted plays to start the game and then Rodgers is on his own to call the rest? I'm sure they've both made mistakes and i'm sure a big part of it, is our first year HC working bugs out of his system too. just like I'm sure Rodgers has things to learn about his coach and the offense. and everyone else on the team.
     
  23. captainWIMM

    captainWIMM Cheesehead

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    The Packers should think about drafting Rodgers successor starting with the 2021 draft.

    Actually Jones and Williams have combined to have more receiving touchdowns than any other running back during Rodgers tenure as the starter helping him improve his rating.

    If Tagovailoa drops to the Packers first round pick it might be smart to pull the trigger though.

    While Rodgers hasn't performed up to his standards over the past two years Packers fans should realize that it's close to impossible to adequately replace a future HOF quarterback and should appreciate having one while it lasts.

    I highly doubt Boyle will ever develop into a decent starter in the NFL.

    On the field the Packers couldn't have imagined a better transition.
     
  24. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    Typical Cowherd. Bear with me for a few excruciating paragraphs on the golf analogies before getting to the actual point.

    For those of you who do not know anything about golf there are 18 holes in a round. If Aaron Rodgers was "on the 18th hole" as Cowherd mis-quoted him, Rodgers will be retiring before the conclusion of this year's playoffs. 15th. season, 18 holes, do the math. Math, accurate quotes and golf analogies are evidetly not Cowherd's strengths.

    John Doran, on the other hand, mis-quoted him as saying he's "making the turn" with the 18th. hole in sight. In golf, "making the turn" typically means on the way to the 10th. hole tee box where on nearly every golf course the 18th. hole is visible. In that case, Rodgers would have 15 seasons left in the tank. To belabor the point, there's an alternative meaning of "making the turn". Rodgers could be on an elevated tee box on the 14th. hole at a far end of the course with the 18th. hole in sight. In this case, "making the turn" (which Rodgers did not even say) might mean there are 5 holes left out of 18 that lead back toward the clubhouse.

    Rodgers actually said he is "seeing the 18th. hole coming up." What does that mean? Who knows. He could picture himself on that elevated 14th. tee box which would equate to 5 more seasons to age 41. On my home course I can see the 18th. hole from 10 and from some part of 14, 15, 16 and 17, but the course doesn't make the final turn toward the clubhouse until the par 5 17th. What do we make of that?

    Am I making too much out of golf analogies? Absolutely. But I didn't start this absurdity with mis-quotes. How hard is it to quote a guy saying stuff on video anyway? It's not that hard.

    More to the point:

    Before 2018, Rodgers said he planned to play to age 40 or beyond, though he thought it realistic that it might not be with the Packers:

    https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/...-the-packers-to-keep-him-around-into-his-40s/

    That was before he signed his extension in 2018 which takes him to age 40. Still, on the eve of the 2019 season, his longevity in Green Bay was still playing on his mind:

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...-got-their-offseason-right-he-might-not-have/

    "My career is at stake every year I go out there. I got to perform, or else they’re going to find someone who can come in here and do it just as well for less. Every great player I’ve been around here has either finished up someplace else or had a disappointing end to their time here. I’d like to not be one of those, but I’m realistic enough to realize it’s happened to a lot of my close friends.”

    There's no great revelation here. It's pretty rare for any player, even the HOFers, to play for one team for an entire career.

    Fast forward to the eve of the 2019 season and we have this:

    “We’ll see. I envision playing as long as my body feels good and I have the love for the game that I do right now that still fuels me and is still a passion. And I still love the daily grind and the practice and the preparation. If I can give everything to a team in that manner and my body feels good, I’m going to keep rolling."

    So, we're pretty much where we thought we were to begin with. Rodgers plans to play as long as the above applies. How long will that be? Nobody knows at this juncture, probably not even Rodgers.

    But succession planning is an entirely different issue. You'd prefer not to be left hanging with an announcement of an upcoming retirement near the conclusion of a season, be it this one or four years from now near the conclusion of the current contract.

    What you don't want to do is draft a successor too soon and then be left like New England with Goroppolo having to be traded after his 3rd. year to get some value back before he hits free agency. 5th. year option or not with a 1st. rounder, you better expect to start that successor no later than year 3 or you run the risk of him going to seed sitting on the bench.

    It's certainly feasible to draft a QB as high as the first round in 2020, with the idea he'll start in 2022 when Rodgers dead cap is manageable, but I highly doubt that will happen. A good draft in 2020 sans QB puts the Packers squarely in the window of championship opportunity. I don't think you pass up a non-QB in the first round.

    2021? That's the most plausible scenario but too many other things can happen in the mean time--another Rodgers injury and an associated loss of love for the game. There is no reason to believe, as Cowherd would have it, that Rodgers is in that place now. But events could put him there before the next draft.
     
  25. HardRightEdge

    HardRightEdge Cheesehead

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    There is a high probability that Jackson will incur a serious injury or a series of smaller ones if keeps doing what he's doing. And once the injuries put a dent in the running ability with the question of how he'd adapt to scheme less reliant on that running, his effectiveness going forward would be in doubt. For Baltimore's sake, they would want that to happen before the second contract.

    It wasn't many years ago the same kinds of things were being said about the rise of the read-option in the NFL. RGIII's injury was a wake up call and put a damper on that.

    You want a mobile QB. You want a guy who can get out of the pocket and run if necessary. You do not want that to be staple of the offense.
     

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