Honest positional needs

[rodell330]

I am still optimistic about Burks and like you said, you have to give him time to develop. There is that fine line between knowing he will and hoping he will. I think for too many years we have seen rookies more on the hope side and they never did. The key is, not depending on it and I don't think the Packers have put themselves into a position that they have.

I thought I read that Burks biggest issue is being able to shed off blockers? If that was the case, wouldn't he just get swallowed up playing Edge?

I can understand your reluctance on him playing outside...but it doesn’t get any easier playing inside either.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I'm not a Burks apologist by any means, but you're talking about a raw, athletic prospect that this FO invested the 88th pick on in order to develop into a WILL. The book on him coming out was that he had great tools, but was underdeveloped on the field because he was constantly asked to change positions in college.

It would be unusual in the extreme to me for them to do that and then turn around and make another sizable investment to replace him. A developmental year was expected, so why would we be surprised? Now if he was just a total disaster on the practice field, can't learn, is a knucklehead, etc. then that's something else. But I don't think we know that.

I'm not suggesting they cut him. That would be silly. I just don't think you can count on much if there has not been at least some progression or some flash in the rookie year. If he turns into a decent player I'd consider that a bonus not an expectation.

 

[Dantés]

Why does everyone act brand new? as if the Packers haven’t never had a player change positions?

Then please, provide me an example of a 230# S/LB converting to edge rusher if it's so normal.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I can understand your reluctance on him playing outside...but it doesn’t get any easier playing inside either.

Right, but his job as an ILB is much different than what he would be expected to do playing the EDGE.

 

[rodell330]

Right, but his job as an ILB is much different than what he would be expected to do playing the EDGE.

I understand that...but what I’m saying is with Martinez as the likely starter and the Packers playing Nickel 80% of the time....I think he could get quality reps as a pass rusher. Heck the knock on Clay coming out was he couldn’t get off blocks either and he is not the same athlete Burks is. He sucks now that he’s off the PEDS?? but you get my point.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I understand that...but what I’m saying is with Martinez as the likely starter and the Packers playing Nickel 80% of the time....I think he could get quality reps as a pass rusher. Heck the knock on Clay coming out was he couldn’t get off blocks either. He sucks now that he’s off the PEDS but you get my point.

Point taken and with your pending windfall of Box Seats, I don't want to mess up sitting next to Amish, so I will agree with you.

 

[sschind]

Since when?

Even if it was in the beginning you could always say since when has that mattered?

 

[sschind]

This would be my opinion:

• QB (1): They should add a mid to late round talent to the competition behind Rodgers.
• RB (1): They should add a mid to late round talent to the mix with Jones and Williams.
• WR (1): They need to add a slot/YAC weapon to replace Cobb. A free agent makes the most sense, as they have a ton of youth in the WR corps as it is. Shouldn't need to be a blockbuster contract.
• TE (2): They should sign an affordable veteran who can block and draft a player to compete with Tonyan and develop into the future receiving role.
• OT (1): They need to draft a future starter at RT, as high as their first pick, value allowing.
• OG (1): They need to draft a future starter at RG, as high as the 2nd day, value allowing.
• DL (1): They should be looking for a 3T/5T versatile player to develop being Mike Daniels.
• OLB (2-3): You figure that Fackrell and Gilbert are back and maybe Perry is they don't want to eat the dead money; they need to at least sign a solid veteran to contribute snaps plus draft a future starter relatively high.
• ILB (1): I would assume that Martinez and Burks are the planned starters moving forward; a mid round pick on a key backup makes sense.
• CB (0): As long as they bring back a veteran like Breeland or Williams, I see no reason to make further investment here.
• S (2): This is another sign and draft situation. They should bring in a veteran who can start immediately, and draft somewhere in the upper to middle rounds for more help.
• K (1): Cut Crosby and draft someone later.
• P (0)
• LS (0)

So on the whole, you're looking at 14-15 total players, with maybe 5-6 being high priority (i.e. sign someone who is ready to go now, or spend a pick in the first two days). Certainly that's plenty of work, but that's not exactly a complete rebuild in this league either.

A little more realistic than the "we need better guys everywhere" type sky is falling posts.

 

[Dantés]

I'm not suggesting they cut him. That would be silly. I just don't think you can count on much if there has not been at least some progression or some flash in the rookie year. If he turns into a decent player I'd consider that a bonus not an expectation.

I'm not suggesting they cut him. That would be silly. I just don't think you can count on much if there has not been at least some progression or some flash in the rookie year. If he turns into a decent player I'd consider that a bonus not an expectation.

That's sensible to me. I think plan A would be him developing into the WILL next season, but I listed ILB as a need because there needs to be a plan B. I wouldn't balk at a pick on ILB even as high as the 1st round if the value was just head and shoulders better than everything else, but a middle round selection on depth would be sufficient I think, along with bringing another veteran into camp. Maybe Jake Ryan if there's no market for him?

 

[sschind]

The FA adds at TE (blocker) and WR (slot) would be the "solid and affordable" variety. At corner, I'm suggesting that they simply keep Tramon Williams OR release him and use the savings to retain Breeland if it's feasible to do that with at least somewhat comparable cap implications.

The additions at OLB and S would need to be more substantial to get what's needed.

To elucidate with projected examples:

• Nick Boyle, TE, Baltimore: 3 years, 12M, 6 GTD
• Adam Humphries, WR, Tampa Bay: 4 years, 28M, 12 GTD
• Za'Darius Smith, ED, Baltimore: 4 years, 45M, 22 GTD
• Adrian Amos, S, Chicago: 5 years, 50M, 25 GTD

So you're talking about ~30M in average salary on these free agents, which is easily doable given the space that the Packers are slated to have.

Just curious as to what you have seen in Amos? My BIL is a huge Bears fan and pays pretty close attention and say's he hopes someone does sign him away.

 

[Dantés]

Just curious as to what you have seen in Amos? My BIL is a huge Bears fan and pays pretty close attention and say's he hopes someone does sign him away.

A technically sound, athletically capable safety who can cover and play the run. He's free/strong versatile. Allowed one of the lowest yards per completion into his coverage this season.

 

[Dantés]

I understand that...but what I’m saying is with Martinez as the likely starter and the Packers playing Nickel 80% of the time....I think he could get quality reps as a pass rusher. Heck the knock on Clay coming out was he couldn’t get off blocks either and he is not the same athlete Burks is. He sucks now that he’s off the PEDS?? but you get my point.

Using him as a blitzer out of sub is a lot different than switching him to an edge rusher position. Josh Jones rushes a lot as a blitzer... doesn't make him an edge.

 

[Dantés]

Those last 3 bulletted names conform with the concept I advocate--second contract players who have shown progression through the rookie contract while also showing durability. Amos got beat up in 2017 with a hamstring and both ankles but has been no worse for wear this season. Those are also positions high on the needs list especially under a scenario where Williams is released or moved back to corner. There's the question of whether these players or their comparables will be highly valued by their incumbent teams for the same reasons and stay put.

The other thing I like about those 3 guys is they were not high picks, 4th. round on down, who had to build up their games to get their snaps. Chips on shoulders tend to last.

Discussions of Von Miller and Antonio Brown trades, at those costs, should be taken out back and shot.

I don't see any particular need to pay Boyle $4 mil per year. I think bringing back Kendricks at something like his last deal @ $2 mil per year would be the better move or draft a guy with blocking credentials. Kendricks is still a decent receiver who's been underutilized and he's a decent blocker. While that does not conform with the pay-for-youth concept, I'm not seeing where Boyle has much upside and Kendricks would be adequate in a 2 year time frame in that complementary role. A $4 mil difference in savings over two years strikes me as worth it. It's probably worth noting the run game was pretty effective this season with either guy out there despite Graham blocking or in the slot on a fair number of those runs. Getting the pass game in better sync can only help.

I've got a sneaking suspicion that the $4.75 mil in cap savings in cutting T. Williams is not going to cover Breeland's average salary amount. Maybe it would cover the first year cap with a decent signing bonus. I think he's gone a long to resurrecting his rep. He should get a lot of interest as a #2 corner perimeter-slot swing man. As mentioned earlier, NO should be kicking themselves in not taking the gamble and having to go get Eli Apple who is proving to be an Achilles heel. Of the 31 other teams, some number are going to be looking to plug a similar weakness without breaking the bank.

I agree with all of this, with the exception of Boyle obviously. I too think the best approach to FA is to find guys coming off of their rookie deals who can't quite fit under their teams' cap. The reason I pegged the guys I did is that it seems at least possible that their teams let them go. The Ravens (Smith) spent multiple picks on the position recently so I figured that could be part of their plan. The Bucs have minimal cap space and a wealth of wide receivers. The Bears spent a ton of money last offseason and should have around half as much space as the Packers. Plus Eddie Jackson figures to be the guy they'd want to keep if they were to pick one of their starters. But nothing is certain.

The reason I want Boyle is that the Packers need an in-line blocker who is still spry enough to at least provide a modicum of a receiving threat. The reason Lewis never saw the field, as I understand it, is that he's just too much of a plodder at his age to force defenses to account for him in the passing game. Kendricks is OK as an H back, but he's not a good in line blocker. Hence, Boyle.

I agree that it's unlikely Breeland could be kept for ~5M. But if they could cut Williams and keep Breeland for, say, 2-3M more than the savings? I think it would be warranted. But regardless, corner isn't a spot where the Packers need to go out and spend serious money.

 

[sschind]

Man I’m getting an Erie feeling that they go offensive linemen at 12. If Jonah Williams is there I wouldn’t be shocked to see them pass up on an edge rusher in order to revamp this line so that they can protect the Franchise QB. We are a mess at both guards and at right tackle with Bulaga not being able to stay healthy. If they take Williams and keep Bulaga? I’m almost willing to guarantee they move Bulaga inside to guard and put the rookie out on the edge.

Would them doing that be a good thing or a bad thing do you think?

Honestly I’m not a big fan of drafting offensive linemen in the first rd at all. I think it’d be bad in this case only because they have to find an edge rusher at #12...as for the 2nd pick? Safety or tackle/guard I’m ok with.

Judging from the lists I have seen if Williams is there at #12 we would be a fool not to take him. On the other hand it might be different if we were looking to replace our LT so procuring the "best" LT in the draft may not be as critical as the need for and edge rusher. Perhaps waiting until the second first rounder or the second round pick to address the need is a wiser mover.

Ideally I would like to see at least starting OG position addressed in FA leaving the other guard position and RT and an OL backup or even two to be addressed via the draft. I also think it would be wise to keep Bulaga even though he is all too often unavailable. I know it is probably a bit of a stretch to expect much more from him but he offers an above average starter at the position when he is healthy. The 5 million or so savings is tempting but IMO he is worth keeping around for the experience and the stability he could provide.

 

[rodell330]

Using him as a blitzer out of sub is a lot different than switching him to an edge rusher position. Josh Jones rushes a lot as a blitzer... doesn't make him an edge.

I mean no kidding, man haha. I’m saying make him an edge rusher.

 

[rodell330]

Then please, provide me an example of a 230# S/LB converting to edge rusher if it's so normal.

I’m saying the Packers Draft guys and change their positions all the time. I’m not saying it’s going to happen ...but don’t make it seem like it’s a crazy proposal.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I’m saying the Packers Draft guys and change their positions all the time. I’m not saying it’s going to happen ...but don’t make it seem like it’s a crazy proposal.

We should have kept Taysom Hill....guessing he could even rush the passer.

 

[Dantés]

I’m saying the Packers Draft guys and change their positions all the time. I’m not saying it’s going to happen ...but don’t make it seem like it’s a crazy proposal.

I'm giving you my opinion that it's a crazy proposal. But that's ok isn't it?

 

[McKnowledge]

This is a little bit crazy.

QB3? Kizer and Boyle aren't even sufficient to compete for the third string?

No. There is no progression with Kizer. Boyle is just a guy. Backup must have starter qualities.

Lucas Patrick is the backup center.

Meh

They don't need two RT's unless they cut Spriggs and Bulaga. It seems unlikely that they would do both.

Spriggs is multiple along the right side of the O-Line, he can play RG. Bulaga should go.

They would need to take a big cap hit to cut Graham.

Post June 1st cut @ $3.6 mil dead cap, or would you rather pay $12.66 mil for a broken down 33 year old TE?

They have at least three good candidates to compete for the outside spot opposite Adams. They need someone to replace Cobb in the slot.

The 3 candidates aren't ready and won't be next season. GB needs a WR2 that stretch the field vertically a la Brandin Cooks. Allison can work the slot.

They have Clark, Daniels, Lowry, Lancaster, and Adams coming back and you think they need six defensive linemen? Six??

Daniels is getting injured more frequently. Montravius Adams is not producing. Lowry is meh. Who is Lancaster? Lol.

Fackrell and Gilbert aren't even good enough to be backup OLB's?

Fackrell entering last year of deal. He'll want more money. Same with Reggie Gilbert. GB needs dynamic playmaker @ OLB...Clowney?

They drafted a talented WILL in Oren Burks who was always a developmental guy. They aren't going to replace him after one season.

When does development turn into production? When does potential become reality? I think he could become a hybrid LB/SS like Morgan Burnett a few years back. He is developing right?

They have Alexander, King, Jackson, Brown, and probably Breeland and/or Williams. How do they need a 3rd and 4th corner?

Breelund may leave. He's proven his worth. King is still suspect and always hurt.

Again, there aren't even backup caliber safeties on our roster? That's silliness.

No. I don't really see quality backups at both safety positions. I think the group needs an overhaul.

This is a tantrum.

This season gave me tantrums. But its over now.

 

[rodell330]

I'm giving you my opinion that it's a crazy proposal. But that's ok isn't it?

Sure it is, man.

 

[rodell330]

We should have kept Taysom Hill....guessing he could even rush the passer.

Oh goodness haha

 

[HardRightEdge]

I'm giving you my opinion that it's a crazy proposal. But that's ok isn't it?

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[HardRightEdge]

I doubt the Packers give up on Burks, but Morrison was the better option and with him still having one year on his contract, I see him only loosing snaps if Burks improves or they sign a better player in Free Agency. The big question has to be, is either player a bonafide starter in 2019? Right now, I would say "No". But Morrison is only 3 months older than Burks, so I think they both have room to improve.

With Martinez, Morrison and Burks, I am more optimistic about our ILB's than I was a few years ago, but still wouldn't mind seeing a 5th round or later used on someone to develop behind those 3.

Regarding Morrison, consider the following:

In his second season with Indy, he was a 2 and 3 down player with a 75% defensive snap count and he led the team in solo and total tackles. They traded him for Pipkins while he was on a contract paying peanuts. Why? Take a look at his Pro Day numbers:

http://www.draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=124464&draftyear=2016&genpos=ILB

While he doesn't look quite O-Lineman slow on the field as those numbers suggest, there is a point to be made. He's an old school thumper who does not run well making for a poor fit in today's game except in run sell-out base defense which is becoming increasing rare. While theoretically that kind of player is a better fit in a 3-4 than Indy's 4-3, it is very hard to hide that lack of speed especially coupled with Martinez who is not the speediest guy in the world. I can't say I'm all that impressed with his run game instincts either. There's a fair amount of faulty guesswork in hitting the wrong hole in his tape.

I think he is who Indy thought he was--just a guy.

The Packers surely were not unaware of his limitations and I'd find it hard to believe they viewed him as a developmental player in any meaningful sense. Recall that Burks dislocated his shoulder, McCarthy had already discounted Jones as a guy who could step back in at the position, saying "he'll compete at safety." When that trade was made the Packers were seriously short-handed at the position and needed a guy who could step in and play on short notice.

The Packers were on track with Jones and Burks in terms of athletic profile if not fit, though Burks will get a chance to step up. The Packers need to draft a guy and I don't mean some 7th. round flyer.

 

[Dantés]

No. There is no progression with Kizer. Boyle is just a guy. Backup must have starter qualities.

Post June 1st cut @ $3.6 mil dead cap, or would you rather pay $12.66 mil for a broken down 33 year old TE?

The 3 candidates aren't ready and won't be next season. GB needs a WR2 that stretch the field vertically a la Brandin Cooks. Allison can work the slot.

Daniels is getting injured more frequently. Montravius Adams is not producing. Lowry is meh. Who is Lancaster? Lol.

Fackrell entering last year of deal. He'll want more money. Same with Reggie Gilbert. GB needs dynamic playmaker @ OLB...Clowney?

When does development turn into production? When does potential become reality? I think he could become a hybrid LB/SS like Morgan Burnett a few years back. He is developing right?

Your QB3 needs to have starter qualities? There are teams in this league who have starters who don't have starter qualities.

I would rather give up 12M in cap space to have Graham than 7M to not have him. A post June 1st cut just allows them to spread the hit over two years, but the bill still comes due. They can get out of the deal much more easily after this season.

1) You don't know where the rookies will be in year two. 2) Allison is ready to be a solid #2 if the 2nd year guys aren't. 3) MVS is tailor made to be the vertical threat you described.

Lowry is good. Not knowing who Lancaster is just demonstrates that you don't have a clue about this roster. He's been really good down the stretch of the season.

Of course we need more dynamic play at OLB, but saying we need four guys suggests that we currently have zero which is obviously stupid.

Development turns into production when it happens. Every good player on the roster that the Packers drafted are the product of development. It's not as though every player makes good, but not to allow for it is asinine.

 

[Dantés]

Regarding Morrison, consider the following:

In his second season with Indy, he was a 2 and 3 down player with a 75% defensive snap count and he led the team in solo and total tackles. They traded him for Pipkins while he was on a contract paying peanuts. Why? Take a look at his Pro Day numbers:

http://www.draftscout.com/ratings/dsprofile.php?pyid=124464&draftyear=2016&genpos=ILB

While he doesn't look quite O-Lineman slow on the field as those numbers suggest, there is a point to be made. He's an old school thumper who does not run well making for a poor fit in today's game except in run sell-out base defense which is becoming increasing rare. While theoretically that kind of player is a better fit in a 3-4 than Indy's 4-3, it is very hard to hide that lack of speed especially coupled with Martinez who is not the speediest guy in the world. I can't say I'm all that impressed with his run game instincts either. There's a fair amount of faulty guesswork in hitting the wrong hole in his tape.

I think he is who Indy thought he was--just a guy.

The Packers surely were not unaware of his limitations and I'd find it hard to believe they viewed him as a developmental player in any meaningful sense. Recall that Burks dislocated his shoulder, McCarthy had already discounted Jones as a guy who could step back in at the position, saying "he'll compete at safety." When that trade was made the Packers were seriously short-handed at the position and needed a guy who could step in and play on short notice.

The packers were on track with Jones and Burks in terms of athletic profile if not fit, though Burks will get a chance to step up. The Packers do need draft a guy and I don't mean some 7th. round flyer.

Agree. Morrison was just a Ryan replacement so that they would have someone to play next to Martinez in base against run heavy looks/teams.