Fixing the run Defense

[wist43]

Disclosure Note: I put this together after the game... was in a hurry and only looked at DL alignments - did not look at whether they were in Dime, or as the case happened to be a few times, as Bob McGinn pointed out in an article - they were actually in a 2-5 some of the time.

I assigned the 2-5 as a 2-4 without realizing one of the backend players was a LB, instead of another DB.

McGinn speculated that the 2-5 will be our new base defense this year... we'll see, but given that TT/MM booted all of our run stopping DL, and only had 4 DL active for the game, I suspect that might be the case.

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I blazed thru the tape, with the emphasis on blazed. Didn't study anything - why a given alignment failed or succeeded... except on a couple of occassions.

In the 1st half, they ran the 2-4 almost exclusively. I was surprised when I paused each presnap and realized they were actually in a 2-4. Watching the game live, some of what looked like Elephant, or even 3-4 was actually a 2-4 when I went thru the tape.

In the 1st half, they ran the 2-4 20 times out of 28 snaps.

They ran the 3-4 base only 3 times - one of the plays resulting in a Seattle holding call, so it was 'no play'.

They ran the Amoeba or Elephant 7 times, with 1 play (our only actual sack) being nullified by the brain surgeon, Brad Jones.

So in the first half, the results of the plays were (not in order, and with only scant observations):

2-4
Run +5 yds (on 1st and 10)
Pass +8
Run -1
Run +13
Pass - no gain (sack - run out of bounds, no sack really)
Run +5
Pass +4 (forced a 4th down)
Run +10 (on 1st and 20 after Seattle holding penalty)
Pass +9 (1st and 20 is now 3rd and 1)
Run +7 (on 3rd and 1, 3 wides split left, run right - too easy)
Pass -2
Pass +33 (next play was the other 33 yd gash for the TD against the Elephant)
Pass +22 (1st and 10, 2 wides)
Pass Incomplete
Run +21 (on 2nd and 5)
Run +9 (1st and goal from the 9, 3 wides, Hawk was laughable on this play, Touchdown)
Pass +2
Run +7
Run +5 (halftime)
Rushing yds allowed = 81 yds, and 1 TD
Passing yds allowed = 76 yds

3-4
Pass +4
Run (resulted in holding call that put the Seahawks at 1st and 20 from the own 10 yd line)
Run +2 (on 2nd and 1)
Rushing yds allowed = 2 yds
Passing yds allowed = 4 yds

Elephant/Amoeba
E-Run +4 (1st and 10)
E-Pass Incomplete
E-Pass +33 (laughable TD)
E-Run +9
E-Pass (Sack nullified by Jones holding)
E-Run +8
E-Pass Incomplete
Rushing yds allowed = 21 yds
Passing yds allowed = 33 yds, 1 TD

That was the first half.

 

[wist43]

The 2nd half, Capers actually played more base 3-4.

They ran the 2-4 less, 12 times out of 39 plays. Of those 39, 3 plays were negated by penalties, 1 by Seattle, 2 by us (Jones-holding and Shields-facemask). So the 2nd half saw us run the 2-4 exactly 33% of the time - a sharp drop off from the 1st half... so Capers did adjust.

They ran the 3-4 15 times out of the 36 plays.

They ran the Elephant or Amoeba 9 times.

2nd half results (not in order)

2-4
Run +13 yds (1st and 10, 2 TE's)
Pass +1 (forced FG)
Run +16
Run No Gain
Pass Incomplete
Pass +8 (resulted in 1st down)
Run +13 (QB scramble)
Pass +14
Run +4
Pass +5
Run +7 (QB run, Shields facemask)
Rushing yds allowed = 53 yds
Passing yds allowed = 28 yds

3-4
Run +9 (3 wides)
Run +4
Pass Incomplete (Got pressure)
Pass Incomplete (1st and goal)
Run +5 (2nd and goal)
Run +4
Run NG
Run +3 (Touchdown)
Pass +1
Run +2
Run +1
Run +7
Run +2
Pass +15 (Touchdown)
Rushing yds allowed = 35 yds, 1 TD
Passing yds allowed = 16 yds, 1 TD

Elephant/Amoeba
A-Pass Incomplete (blitz)
E-Pass +6 (forced punt)
A-Run +1
E-Pass +9
E-Run +4
Pass Incomplete (4-3, got pressure)
A-Pass +10 (first down)
E-Run +6
Rushing yds allowed = 11 yds
Passing yds allowed = 25 yds

So there it is... as complete a rundown as I could throw together on the fly. I think I might have missed a couple of plays, and I didn't count Wilson's kneel downs... small things. Close enough for government work

 

[wist43]

Fritz Shurmer dreamed up the 2-5 back in the 80's when he was with the Rams... they were shorthanded on the DL, and had a decent stable of LB's - so he drew up the 2-5 to take advantage of his personnel. It didn't work well, and was only a shortlived experiment - at least that is my first recollection of seeing the alignment.

It would seem, if you believe McGinn, that Capers and the Packers have decided that the 2-5 has a place with the Packers, and they intend on using it a lot this season in place of a base 3-4.

Given that they've booted all of their big 3-4 DL, and only had 4 DL active for the Seahawk game - that unfortunately might be the case.

The 2-5 is a niche, changeup subpackage that might be used to some effect on occassion - but to be used as a base?? We will get run over. Our starting LB's are very much below average (Hawk and Jones) - if they are the best we have, and they are presumably better than their backups... why in heavens name would this coaching staff commit to an alignment that is wholly dependent upon players that are below average??

Watching the 2-4 get run over repeatedly last year, to the tune of a 27th place finish in rushing yds allowed, why would MM and TT go along with Capers to only tweak that ineffective alignment by going with a below average LB instead of a heavier DL that can actually stymie an offensive lineman on the LOS??

It would seem that the 2-5 is what the Packers braintrust has been working on all offseason as the fix for their pathetic run defense - if that proves true throughout the season, we are going to be at the bottom of the league in run defense again this season.

We gave up 207 rushing yds against the Seahawks - not a promising start to Capers supposed fix.

 

[TJV]

Watching the 2-4 get run over repeatedly last year, to the tune of a 27th place finish in rushing yds allowed, why would MM and TT go along with Capers to only tweak that ineffective alignment by going with a below average LB instead of a heavier DL that can actually stymie an offensive lineman on the LOS?? It would seem that the 2-5 is what the Packers braintrust has been working on all offseason as the fix for their pathetic run defense - if that proves true throughout the season, we are going to be at the bottom of the league in run defense again this season.

Just a reminder: This is the poster whose first post on this board included name-calling Capers. He is also the one so obsessed with the 2-4 that he had to be reminded it is Thompson who is responsible for the talent on D, and that the 2-4 alignment was used to great success when the talent on D included Woodson, Collins, Jenkins, Raji at his best, etc. So it’s no surprise he’s back singing the same tired song.

As for the substance of his post: He’s advocating for heavier DL? Well Pickett was probably 350 pounds plus and Raji was about 340 last year. I guess he was hoping for the first 400 pound DL? And even with those behemoths, the Packers weren’t good vs. the run last year after a decent start. Also as captainWIMM pointed out:

It seems like weight doesn´t significantly affect a team´s run defense, it´s all about having talented players either on the line or at ILB. Two of the best run defenses (Arizona and San Francisco) boasted two of the lightest DL playing a 3-4 with both teams having above average ILBs

http://www.packerforum.com/threads/10-concerns-about-the-2014-packers.53394/page-2#post-561796

This poster was also obsessed with the 4-3. Well guess what? What Capers was working on "in secret" was mentioned in Silverstein's article:

It looked like Capers went with what looked like a 4-3 defense at times, pulling Clay Matthews from his outside linebacker position to an inside position and going with Mike Neal at one end spot, Peppers at the other and two defensive linemen. Matthews was essentially stacked next to Hawk and Jones behind the linemen.

It didn't work.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...-by-marshawn-lynch-b99344723z1-274057691.html

Like many posters here, I have previously posted I thought it was time to get a new DC and that certainly this year is ‘do or die’ for Capers. But misrepresenting reality and name calling don’t make that case.

 

[Mile High Packer Backer]

Tackling and not over pursuing would be a good place to start. I have no clue how many yards after contact the Seahawks had, and how many times the Packers put themselves out of position (for the love of God protect the backside). The DL needs to play north-south and work on fundamentals to eat up blocks for the LBs to come up and make the play.

Formation wise the 2-4 is nice on passing downs, but stick with the 3-4. With personnel, Peppers to DE to replace D Jones, place Pennel at NT, put B Jones back at OLB, and create a rotation (Hawk, Barrington, Lattimore) at ILB.

 

[TJV]

Formation wise the 2-4 is nice on passing downs, but stick with the 3-4. With personnel, Peppers to DE to replace D Jones, place Pennel at NT, put B Jones back at OLB, and create a rotation (Hawk, Barrington, Lattimore) at ILB.

Pennel at NT would be worth a look IMO but why put Brad Jones at OLB? He was moved to ILB because he wasn't good at OLB and the Packers have a lot of better options at OLB. IMO Brad should be benched. BTW, I think Mike Daniels had a worse game than Datone did, so if you're going to replace a DL based upon one game... But that's the point: I wouldn't replace either Daniels or Datone. IMO only Brad Jones earned a demotion and it's not based just on one game.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

If the Packers defense stinks again this year then capers need to go, but not because it's his fault, mainly because someone needs top be the fall guy. The packers were starting a NT that was a cheap free agent and they feature two of the least physical inside linebackers in the NFL. Please tell me what magical scheme will suddenly turn those three into a fearsome run stopping unit.

The onus is still on Thompson for not providing this defense with any front seven help. Matthews is a terrific back-side player in the run game (and good play-side) but not another player in the front seven is good against the run. Doesn't matter what scheme you run, those players aren't going to stop the run.

 

[wist43]

If the Packers defense stinks again this year then capers need to go, but not because it's his fault, mainly because someone needs top be the fall guy. The packers were starting a NT that was a cheap free agent and they feature two of the least physical inside linebackers in the NFL. Please tell me what magical scheme will suddenly turn those three into a fearsome run stopping unit.

The onus is still on Thompson for not providing this defense with any front seven help. Matthews is a terrific back-side player in the run game (and good play-side) but not another player in the front seven is good against the run. Doesn't matter what scheme you run, those players aren't going to stop the run.

I would agree with that to a point... but, and it is a big but, Capers had run stopping, 2-gapping DL last year, and he only used them sparingly; and it is Capers who is throwing those undermanned fronts out there, not TT. I'm sure it wasn't TT's decision to have only 4 DL active for the Seattle game - that was Capers.

Last year he ran the 2-4 nickel as his base most of the time, only running a 3-4 20% of the time... his commitment to stopping the run consisted of the "jumbo nickel", which was the worst of both worlds - clearly that didn't work against either the run or the pass.

Surely Capers had a lot of say in who to keep, and who to jettison... and he doesn't seem to be too panicked about Jones and Hawk as his ILB's.

TT shares a lot of the blame, but Capers could be making better use of the personnel he does have available to him, and that is why he needs to go.

 

[Sunshinepacker]

I would agree with that to a point... but, and it is a big but, Capers had run stopping, 2-gapping DL last year, and he only used them sparingly; and it is Capers who is throwing those undermanned fronts out there, not TT. I'm sure it wasn't TT's decision to have only 4 DL active for the Seattle game - that was Capers.

Last year he ran the 2-4 nickel as his base most of the time, only running a 3-4 20% of the time... his commitment to stopping the run consisted of the "jumbo nickel", which was the worst of both worlds - clearly that didn't work against either the run or the pass.

Surely Capers had a lot of say in who to keep, and who to jettison... and he doesn't seem to be too panicked about Jones and Hawk as his ILB's.

TT shares a lot of the blame, but Capers could be making better use of the personnel he does have available to him, and that is why he needs to go.

People complain about the 2-4 but ignore the fact that playing a 3-4 would have entailed taking a corner out of the game to replace that player with a sub-par dlineman.

Capers had Guion, Daniels, Hawk and Jones as the best players available to man the heart of or defense. Daniels was surprising in how poorly he played the run but none of the others are players that any rational person would have expected to be able to stop Seattle's run game. Scheme can only do so much when you have limited personnel.

 

[thisisnate]

Brandon Spikes is a FA next year and wouldn't be *that* expensive. Not great in coverage, but he's a monster against the run. OPTIMISM ALERT

Haha, was reading on bleacherreport ILB rankings... Spikes was at #5... but ours? Lattimore at 29, Jones at 30, Hawk at 31.

I think I have to use "lol" instead of "haha" now. Just confusing.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Tackling and not over pursuing would be a good place to start. I have no clue how many yards after contact the Seahawks had, and how many times the Packers put themselves out of position (for the love of God protect the backside). The DL needs to play north-south and work on fundamentals to eat up blocks for the LBs to come up and make the play.

Formation wise the 2-4 is nice on passing downs, but stick with the 3-4. With personnel, Peppers to DE to replace D Jones, place Pennel at NT, put B Jones back at OLB, and create a rotation (Hawk, Barrington, Lattimore) at ILB.

Seahawks had 79 rushing yards after contact (in comparison the Packers had 60 of their 80 after contact) so actually getting a hand on their rushers was a major problem as well. As TJV pointed out there´s no reason to move Brad Jones to OLB, just move him to the bench.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Brandon Spikes is a FA next year and wouldn't be *that* expensive. Not great in coverage, but he's a monster against the run. OPTIMISM ALERT

Haha, was reading on bleacherreport ILB rankings... Spikes was at #5... but ours? Lattimore at 29, Jones at 30, Hawk at 31.

I think I have to use "lol" instead of "haha" now. Just confusing.

Buffalo signed Spikes for 1 year, $3 million plus $250,000 in possible incentive pay. The guy is a 2-down middle-of-the-field enforcer...one of the best run stopper ILBs in the league. The Bills run defense looks significantly improved with him in there. They also made him a captain, unusual for a short-timer. We could use a guy like that.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Elephant/Amoeba
E-Run +4 (1st and 10)
E-Pass Incomplete
E-Pass +33 (laughable TD)
E-Run +9
E-Pass (Sack nullified by Jones holding)
E-Run +8
E-Pass Incomplete
Rushing yds allowed = 21 yds
Passing yds allowed = 33 yds, 1 TD

I'm not sure of your intent with this category. Elephant and amoeba are not the same thing.

 

[wist43]

I'm not sure of your intent with this category. Elephant and amoeba are not the same thing.

E-for Elephant, A-for Amoeba...

 

[rodell330]

elephant, rhino, buffalo who cares?! None of it worked against Seattle and the run d looks like last years run d...garbage! Maybe they need to put some run stoppers who can rush the passer and keep it simple?

Peppers d-end
Boyd NT
Daniels d-end
Olb Matthews
Ilb Lattimore
Ilb Barrington
Olb Mulumba

 

[JBlood]

We gave up 207 yds rushing last night - most of that against that nickel defense.
By playing the 2-4 on run downs, Capers is conceding control of the LOS - and that is what is resulting in continually getting gashed in the run game.

Correct--Whoever controls the LOS, wins most games. And contrast our defense to Seattle--who was putting 8 and 9 players in the box on 1st and 2nd downs--and we continued to run the ball. I guess it helps defenses to face offenses that play to your strengths, instead of exploiting your weaknesses. We were outcoached and outplayed in 1 game. 15 more to go, with lots of time to fix things.

 

[TJV]

Michael Rodney at Packer Update has the following suggestions to improve the defense. A couple are obvious and I disagree with one but IMO he makes some good points. Here’s his list:

1) Start Jamari Lattimore
2) Sign Ryan Pickett
3) Play Mike Daniels less
4) Bench Morgan Burnett
5) Give Nick Perry more snaps
6) Use Sean Richardson vs. the pass
7) Put Jayrone Elliott on 46
8) Bring down Dom
(Don’t get too excited about #8, he means bringing Dom down onto the sideline.)
http://packerupdate.net/?p=35854

Check the site for his explanation of each one, I want to focus in on one idea I think makes all kinds of sense. We’ve talked some about using 3 safeties but Rodney suggests using Richardson as an ILB vs. the pass. Of course Richardson isn’t as big as Jones and Hawk but, “He’s nearly as big as one and he probably hits a lot harder than Jones and Hawk. More importantly, he has the athleticism to challenge tight ends and receivers and the speed to keep yards after the catch to a minimum.”

The most we can probably hope for IMO is they’ll replace B. Jones. Lattimore is the obvious choice (Barrington backs up Hawk) but Richardson would offer better coverage skills and if the D suffers even more vs. the run (hard to imagine I know) have Barrington replace Hawk. One of the many problems the Packers had at Seattle was making personnel substitutions while the Seahawks were using a hurry up offense. (It’s a problem the Packers would like to cause defenses too). That’s why the new 4-3 uses the same personnel as the base 3-4 – no substitutions have to be made. Richardson’s versatility would help to alleviate the problem of substitutions vs. hurry-up offenses. Also, although it was only one game I think the sooner Clinton-Dix is on the field full time, the better. Yes he missed tackles but I think he'll adjust and become the best tackler at safety. That too would help the run D.

 

[OldSchool101]

After Marshawn Lynch gashed our defense for 110 yards on the ground it goes without saying that we have a problem here. Is this something that's fixable in the season or are we going to have to wait for the off season to address this issue?

Last night our problem stemmed primarily from a Nose Tackle who proved incapable of fighting off reach blocks and Brad Jones who seemed incapable of making a proper run fit, of course this is tough when LeTroy Guion spends the entire evening on your lap.

I think the quick fixes are as follows:

1) Move AJ Hawk to the Mack and play Lattimore at the Buck. Hawk has become a serviceable cover backer, and the increased physicality of both players together should help the defense. You play Jones because he's supposed to be the best cover linebacker not named Clay Matthews, but yesterday he was just brutal. Showed terrible feet, no backpedal and kept panic grabbing.

2) Either move Mike Daniels to Nose or start feeding him snaps at that position. Mike Daniels is not a prototype nose tackle but I think he'd be surprisingly good at the position, kinda like Jay Ratliff for the Cowboys. He's small but he plays with great power and leverage, I have to imagine that he'd be leaps and bounds better than what Guion showed. Work Pennell in as either Daniels' backup or as a contributor at the position.

3) Start Boyd as the RDE, no pass rush but a good run defender.

4) Play Peppers with his hand in the dirt more often, should help the team spell Jones and Boyd more often.

5) Guion should be relegated to backup/situational duty, he's not a starter.

6) Call up Ryan Picket, he doesn't have much but 10-15 snaps a game would be a positive. That and he could mentor the young guys.

I agree with much of what you propose. In particular I think we agree that Guion played poorly. With that said let's not forget its week 1 against a very difficult opponent on the road with a new D and he's coming off a hammy. I would supplement Pennel in the Middle due to size and physicality to groom him for the position. Id bring Peppers to A 3pt stance more subbing Elliot some to keep fresh legs. Id involve Lattimore and Barrington more and scale Brads reps to primarily passing downs. I'd find a way to sign Pickett or jolly. It's a bargain at this point

 

[Carl]

I'd like to see Neal and Perry playing at ends on passing downs. That would give us two passers coming from each side those plays.

 

[wingrider47]

Need to replace Jones, Hawk and Barnett with Barrington, Lattimore and Ha Ha.

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Need to replace Jones, Hawk and Barnett with Barrington, Lattimore and Ha Ha.

Interesting !! and who would we replace them with ????

 

[wingrider47]

Barrington, Lattimore and Ha Ha

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Barrington, Lattimore and Ha Ha

Sorry, my mistake. It read differently at first glance

 

[OldSchool101]

Sorry, my mistake. It read differently at first glance

Barrington, Lattimore and Ha Ha

We definitely need to make some changes. (I almost wrote defiantly but that works too!) I'm not ready to give up on back peddle... Cough.. I mean Hawk. He showed last year, how maturity and seasoning make up for lack of raw talent. I agree with Lattimore over Brad especially on running downs. haha just needs time. We can win with him playing mediocre get him in for live experience. I think he needs live action to gain seasoning. He's gonna be a starter by next year

 

[rodell330]

Why anyone would suggest to use Brad Jones primarily on passing downs is beyond me! He can't cover come on man! I do think that Jolly should be back, and if Pickett isn't 400lbs give him a look to. The problem can be solved as it's still early to get this turned around. Lattimore needs more snaps, Burnett needs less snaps, hawk needs less snaps, Perry needs to be a rush end on passing downs, Hyde needs to be at Fs on passing downs, Richardson needs more snaps and mike Daniels needs to be moved to left DE while Mike Neal starts at RE.