Finally get to see Dallas freeze in Greenbay -- Official division game thread

[HardRightEdge]

Once again total yards allowed isn't a great way to measure a team's success.

The Cowboys are 13th in opposing passer rating allowed and 7th in interceptions. Their pass defense is better than yards allowed would indicate.

Yes, Dallas' decent passer rating is partially based on the 7th. ranking in INTs, but also on their tied-for-6th. ranking in fewest pass TDs surrendered (22). Their ranking in percent per attempt in both categories is probably about the same since they're right in the middle of the league in attempts against at 558. They fare much worse in completion % against (28th.) and yards per attempt against (tied for 20th.), the other two components in passer rating.

Looking deeper at the TDs surrendered, I figured they might be playing bend-don't-break with decent long pass play and red zone numbers. Here's how they rate:

fewest 20+ yd. pass plays against: 45, tied for 7th.
fewest 40+ yd. pass plays against: 14, tied for 27th.
red zone TDs against: 60.8, 27th.

This poses something of a quandary...how does a team that is porous in the red zone and vulnerable to the deep pass give up so few passing TDs? I think there's at least a partial answer.

Dallas surrendered 18 rushing TDs, 31st. in the league. At the same time, they surrendered only one 40+ rushing play, and 12 rushing plays for 20+ for a 24th. rank. The latter stat is little deceiving since it's only 3 more runs than the 12th. ranked teams.

A conclusion that can be drawn is that teams have had good success running the ball against Dallas in the red zone. And if you're running the ball for scores you're not passing the ball into the end zone from close range.

In other words, the low TD pass numbers may be a result of opponents frequently not having to throw from close range.

 

[OldSchool101]

I do believe this game could answer one of the remaining doubts that many folks have.. Can we have a COMPLETE game against a playoff caliber team (that has their starting QB, RB, TE, WR, etc..) with no excuses about one-sided officiating etc.. Can we get up a few scores and still play aggressive "play to win" ball rather than "play not to lose"? Personally, I think the only thing stopping our talented team from going all the way is our mindset.. will our players look around the locker room and see the greatness in each other and realize that it may be their fellow teammates and coaches life dream they are playing for..

 

[HardRightEdge]

It's important but no, it's not as important as the Super Bowl.

Like "they" say, nobody remembers who finishes second.

Or perhaps better put, runners up might be unfondly remembered as in the case of Peyton Manning's poor playoff record.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Yes, Dallas' decent passer rating is partially based on the 7th. ranking in INTs, but also on their tied-for-6th. ranking in fewest pass TDs surrendered (22). Their ranking in percent per attempt in both categories is probably about the same since they're right in the middle of the league in attempts against at 558. They fare much worse in completion % against (28th.) and yards per attempt against (tied for 20th.), the other two components in passer rating.

Looking deeper at the TDs surrendered, I figured they might be playing bend-don't-break with decent long pass play and red zone numbers. Here's how they rate:

fewest +20 yd. pass plays against: 45, tied for 7th.
fewest +40 yd. pass plays against: 14, tied for 27th.
red zone TDs against: 60.8, 27th.

This poses something of a quandary...how does a team that is porous in the red zone and vulnerable to the deep pass give up so few passing TDs? I think there's at least a partial answer.

Dallas surrendered 18 rushing TDs, 31st. in the league. At the same time, they surrendered only one 40+ rushing play, and 12 rushing plays for 20+ for a 24th. rank. The latter stat is little deceiving since it's only 3 more runs than the 12th. ranked teams.

A conclusion that can be drawn is that teams have had good success running the ball against Dallas in the red zone. And if you're running the ball for scores you're not passing the ball into the end zone from close range.

In other words, the low TD pass numbers may be a result of opponents frequently not having to throw from close range.

Here's an addendum to the above:

I went through Dallas' box scores to see the length of the 18 TD runs they surrendered this season. They were as follows:

4, 15, 1, 9, 5, 7, 1, 32, 1, 3, 2, 38, 1, 10, 5, 1, 1, 2

So, 16 of 18 rushing TDs surrendered were in the red zone. 14 were from inside the 10 yard line. 11 were from inside the 5.

I think my initial thesis has validity: Dallas' low pass TDs surrendered coupled with poor red zone defense is attributable to teams being able to run the ball successfully from in close.

Further, while many view Dallas' secondary as their key weakness, it might in fact be their red zone run D.

 

[Packerlifer]

It's important but no, it's not as important as the Super Bowl.

I did say "for now." If the Packers lose tomorrow I'm sure we'll feel like we did when they lost XXXII to Denver, lost at home to a Southern dome team with a rookie qb in '02 and to the Viqueens in '04 for the first times in club history. Gotta win this one, obviously to get to the Super Bowl and this round has been the obstacle for the Packers in recent history.

Cracking through in this one could be comparable to the Packers beating the then Super Bowl champion Niners in San Fran. back in '95; after two years of losing in the divisional round. While these Cowboys aren't those 49ers and the Pack then didn't get to the Super Bowl it was a strategic achievement that set them on the path to the Super Bowl the next season.

Whether it happens this season or next we'll see this playoff as a pivotal moment.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

The Cowboys have promoted DT Ken Bishop from their practice squad. This probably means DT Terrell McClain won't be able to play.

 

[Hincha]

The Cowboys have promoted DT Ken Bishop from their practice squad. This probably means DT Terrell McClain won't be able to play.

Thanks for that tidbit...

Here is their last injury report.... Hitchens, R. McClian, T. McClain and Mincey are all questionable on their defense. Free is Doubtful at RT.

Bruce Carter OLB Knee - Probable
Doug Free T Ankle - Doubtful
James Hanna TE Knee - Probable
Anthony Hitchens OLB Ankle - Questionable
Zack Martin G Ankle - Probable
Rolando McClain MLB Knee/Concussion - Questionable
Terrell McClain DT Ankle - Questionable
Jeremy Mincey DE Concussion - Questionable
DeMarco Murray RB Hand - Probable
Tony Romo QB Back - Probable
Nick Hayden DT Shoulder - Probable
Jeff Heath SS Thumb - Probable

 

[Packerlifer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UPDb96MOAFc

Wouldn't you love to see that "Look" on Jerry Jones at Lambeau tomorrow?

 

[LombardiChick]

Is Post-Season Traumatic Stress Disorder a thing? Because I think I have it, especially after watching the chatter on NFL Network tonight. Was feeling pretty good until I did that.

At least I don't hate Dallas. If they beat us, I'll survive it.

 

[Sky King]

Is Post-Season Traumatic Stress Disorder a thing? Because I think I have it, especially after watching the chatter on NFL Network tonight. Was feeling pretty good until I did that.

At least I don't hate Dallas. If they beat us, I'll survive it.

Of course you'll survive. BTW, if you never watch a pregame show again you'll be pleasantly surprised.

 

[Bridcarper]

What is the temp/weather like at Lambeau for game day? Freezing?

 

[Dr. Kenneth Noisewater]

What is the temp/weather like at Lambeau for game day? Freezing?

Feels like -2F apparently, which is about -20C. Sort of wish we had the evening slot but that's still pretty damn cold!

 

[Bridcarper]

Feels like -2F apparently, which is about -20C. Sort of wish we had the evening slot but that's still pretty damn cold!

Hell yeah - sure is cold. Kinda pleased I'm watching in front of a nice warm fire!

 

[Hincha]

Forecast in Green Bay for today is 20ºF, very little wind. That had been the forecast much of the week.

WBAY in Green Bay states high today of 21ºF.

 

[Hincha]

Feels like -2F apparently, which is about -20C. Sort of wish we had the evening slot but that's still pretty damn cold!

That is not Green Bay current conditions... as of 9am these are the conditions from WBAY website in Green Bay.

Temp 20ºF
Wind 0 North
Humidity 81%
Sunrise 7:26 am
Sunset 4:34 pm

 

[PackerDNA]

Hope the wind stays down.

 

[Dr. Kenneth Noisewater]

That is not Green Bay current conditions... as of 9am these are the conditions from WBAY website in Green Bay.

Temp 20ºF
Wind 0 North
Humidity 81%
Sunrise 7:26 am
Sunset 4:34 pm

Yeah, I posted the gametime conditions. It's forecast to be windier later on, which I guess doesn't help us

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Packers inactives:

26 RB DuJuan Harris
39 CB Demetri Goodson
54 LB Carl Bradford
72 C Garth Gerhart
80 TE Justin Perillo
83 WR Jeff Janis
99 DT Bruce Gaston

Not surprisingly, all three QBs active again.

 

[red4tribe]

Packers inactives:

26 RB DuJuan Harris
39 CB Demetri Goodson
54 LB Carl Bradford
72 C Garth Gerhart
80 TE Justin Perillo
83 WR Jeff Janis
99 DT Bruce Gaston

Not surprisingly, all three QBs active again.

I guess we will see Hyde returning kickoffs again.

 

[TJV]

On the radio pregame: Q: Which team has the better OL? Mark Tauscher: Green Bay and it's not close. Look at the Cowboys OL vs. Washington - that doesn't happen to the Packers OL and look at the Cowboys OL vs. Detroit last week vs. the Packers against the same team the week before. Of course OLs don't face each other but I thought that was an interesting comment by Tausch.

BTW, other than Tolzien being active which is understandable, I wonder who the "last" active player is. If the Packers emphasize the running game as I hope they do, I'd like to have DuJuan Harris available if Lacy or Starks go down. Obviously QB is more important but that's why I'd like to know who they think is the last active player. Perhaps Chris Banjo? He'll probably contribute more on STs than Harris would. Having Harris available as the 3rd RB is a luxury, but one I'd like them to have.

 

[Packerlifer]

I was thinking about the same thing about Harris. But if anybody besides Lacy and Starks get any touches out of the backfield today it would be Kuhn and Cobb.

On the radio pregame: Q: Which team has the better OL? Mark Tauscher: Green Bay and it's not close. Look at the Cowboys OL vs. Washington - that doesn't happen to the Packers OL and look at the Cowboys OL vs. Detroit last week vs. the Packers against the same team the week before. Of course OLs don't face each other but I thought that was an interesting comment by Tausch.

BTW, other than Tolzien being active which is understandable, I wonder who the "last" active player is. If the Packers emphasize the running game as I hope they do, I'd like to have DuJuan Harris available if Lacy or Starks go down. Obviously QB is more important but that's why I'd like to know who they think is the last active player. Perhaps Chris Banjo? He'll probably contribute more on STs than Harris would. Having Harris available as the 3rd RB is a luxury, but one I'd like them to have.

 

[Daryl Muellenberg]

BTW, other than Tolzien being active which is understandable, I wonder who the "last" active player is. If the Packers emphasize the running game as I hope they do, I'd like to have DuJuan Harris available if Lacy or Starks go down. Obviously QB is more important but that's why I'd like to know who they think is the last active player. Perhaps Chris Banjo? He'll probably contribute more on STs than Harris would. Having Harris available as the 3rd RB is a luxury, but one I'd like them to have.

I think Brady proved yesterday that you don't 'have' to have a running game to win. I think Brady ran a qb sneak for a 1st down and then 3 kneel downs at the end of the game for their only running plays in the 2nd half. Obviously having a good running game is a plus, but if Lacy and Starks go down I would rather see the ball in Rodgers' hands.

 

[Daryl Muellenberg]

What is the temp/weather like at Lambeau for game day? Freezing?

Watching the pregame show they show some shots of the teams warming up. I don't even see any vapor/steam coming from any players so it doesn't look like it's all that cold and very little wind. I don't think the weather will be much if any of a factor today.

 

[Legalizeit]

Watching the pregame show they show some shots of the teams warming up. I don't even see any vapor/steam coming from any players so it doesn't look like it's all that cold and very little wind. I don't think the weather will be much if any of a factor today.

You see how bundled up Romo is? He's feeling it! Might not matter all that much, but they definitely know there in Green Bay.

 

[Legalizeit]

Comon Packers! Make us all proud, Lombardi is watching!