Finally get to see Dallas freeze in Greenbay -- Official division game thread

[AegonTheConqueror]

If you really want to see ignorance read the OP in the thread below

http://cowboyszone.com/threads/whats-the-big-deal-about-jordy-nelson.312128/

I post at that site sometimes........there are good poster there but also some of the worst I've seen

As to Matt Flynn, I played with him at Robert e Lee......Brandon Pettigrew also

 

[Vrill]

I think the Cowboys will be harder than the Patriots especially because of the running game, the Cowboys offense are hot, both parts of offense are producing very good numbers, the Patriots didn't have good numbers in the running game as the Cowboys have and the passing game have been producing good numbers for the Cowboys as well. I think they're a complete team, a team made for this part of the season. But if you compare pound per pound, Brady is better than Romo, there's no doubt about it, but if you look as a whole team, i think the Cowboys are tougher.

Patriots defense overall > Cowboys defense

 

[Sky King]

2004-2014 4th qtr comeback wins (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/comebacks_career.htm):
Eli Manning - 26
Ben Roethlisberger - 25
Tony Romo - 24

Peyton Manning - 21
Drew Brees - 20
Tom Brady - 18



For his career, Romo has 110 INTs on 4,210 attempts. That's 1 INT for every 38.3 pass attempts.

For comparison (same order as above):
Eli Manning - 185 on 5,609 - 1 every 30.3
Ben Roethlisberger - 131 on 4,954 - 1 every 37.8
Tony Romo - 110 on 4,210 - 1 every 38.3

Peyton Manning - 234 on 9,049 - 1 every 38.7
Drew Brees - 194 on 7,458 - 1 every 38.4
Tom Brady - 134 on 7,168 - 1 every 53.5

There seems to be a correlation between frequency of INTs and number of comeback wins.

A concern with having so many come from behind wins is that he and his team have had to come from behind so often. If he also had the best overall W-L record in the NFL during his time as a starter that would give him tremendous credibility. If he also had the best come from behind record in the playoffs during his career he would be headed to the HOF. Instead, he has choked at some very crucial times in pressure situations and he's fallen short time and again in the clutch. He's a very good stat QB. There's no denying that. But it's not just what he's capable of doing, it's when. To date, all he's got is a wedding ring. Lots of guys have wedding rings.

 

[Powarun]

Always thought the comeback wins stat is overrated. They are fun to watch, but its not purely the QB who orchestrates the win, its the defense that gives the team a chance. Three games solidify my belief with this.
Packers vs Cardinals playoff game in the Packers loss, Offenses were amazing, defenses were not, offense stumbled once and lost the game.
Packers vs Miami this year, Packers won, this game was a good game to say comeback wins are great.
Packers vs Dallas last year, Packers won, and how the **** they got their **** together to beat Dallas was amazing. Does Flynn get the credit even though it was Lacy's huge run that sparked the offense together? Also if it wasn't for our defense that game getting an interception we'd just mark it as a game we would of win with Rodgers but not Flynn.

Plus speaking of running backs, anyone else remember games before Lacy, where we'd get a lead, McCarthy would get conservative, run the ball 3 times and punt in the second half? Comebacks are not a stat that justifies a QB. Another great one is the argument Romo > Rodgers because of stats. How often was the Packers offense was so effective the first half, the second half would be garbage time? And the only time did that seem to bite the Pack in the butt was versus Atlanta who still lost to the Packers? Just want this game to happen, have the Packers win and let the Cowplops go back to the dome where the Packers got their last trophy. Bet J. Jones remembers that one pretty well.

 

[Carl]

A concern with having so many come from behind wins is that he and his team have had to come from behind so often. If he also had the best overall W-L record in the NFL during his time as a starter that would give him tremendous credibility. If he also had the best come from behind record in the playoffs during his career he would be headed to the HOF. Instead, he has choked at some very crucial times in pressure situations and he's fallen short time and again in the clutch. He's a very good stat QB. There's no denying that. But it's not just what he's capable of doing, it's when. To date, all he's got is a wedding ring. Lots of guys have wedding rings.

Always thought the comeback wins stat is overrated. They are fun to watch, but its not purely the QB who orchestrates the win, its the defense that gives the team a chance. Three games solidify my belief with this.
Packers vs Cardinals playoff game in the Packers loss, Offenses were amazing, defenses were not, offense stumbled once and lost the game.
Packers vs Miami this year, Packers won, this game was a good game to say comeback wins are great.
Packers vs Dallas last year, Packers won, and how the **** they got their **** together to beat Dallas was amazing. Does Flynn get the credit even though it was Lacy's huge run that sparked the offense together? Also if it wasn't for our defense that game getting an interception we'd just mark it as a game we would of win with Rodgers but not Flynn.

Plus speaking of running backs, anyone else remember games before Lacy, where we'd get a lead, McCarthy would get conservative, run the ball 3 times and punt in the second half? Comebacks are not a stat that justifies a QB. Another great one is the argument Romo > Rodgers because of stats. How often was the Packers offense was so effective the first half, the second half would be garbage time? And the only time did that seem to bite the Pack in the butt was versus Atlanta who still lost to the Packers? Just want this game to happen, have the Packers win and let the Cowplops go back to the dome where the Packers got their last trophy. Bet J. Jones remembers that one pretty well.

To elaborate on what you guys are saying about the comeback stat. Andrew Luck is a great example of how the stat can be misleading. He has led many comebacks for only being in the league a short time, but has also played terribly early in some of those games leading to the deficit in the first place. That crazy 2nd half comeback vs. the Chiefs in the playoffs is an example. He was awful early in that game.

 

[Packerlifer]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2322140-cowboys-vs-packers-updated-odds-latest-player-comments-and-predictions

 

[longtimefan]

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2322140-cowboys-vs-packers-updated-odds-latest-player-comments-and-predictions

Rodgers is 10-1 vs Marinelli's defenses in Detroit and Chicago

 

[longtimefan]

More from that bleacher report

Dallas is an abysmal 26th in the league against the pass and simply doesn't have the personnel in place in the secondary to deal with the aerial attack of Rodgers, JordyNelson and Randall Cobb.

 

[Carl]

Rodgers is 10-1 vs Marinelli's defenses in Detroit and Chicago

More from that bleacher report

Dallas is an abysmal 26th in the league against the pass and simply doesn't have the personnel in place in the secondary to deal with the aerial attack of Rodgers, JordyNelson and Randall Cobb.

Those two things jumped out at me also.

Dallas is going to have a tough time slowing down Rodgers.

 

[ExpatPacker]

Those two things jumped out at me also.

Dallas is going to have a tough time slowing down Rodgers.

I do worry about Rodgers injury however. It is as serious as many of us thought, meaning, he can play, he can probably pass just fine, but he can't scramble. That makes the play of our OL even more important. Dallas may try to blitz a little more knowing that Rodgers is going to stay in the pocket.

 

[Packerlifer]

The Packers and Cowboys played 5 common opponents this past season. Each played Philadelphia, New Orleans, Seattle, Chicago and Detroit. The Cowboys were 5-1 against those teams; the Packers were 4-3. At home Dallas was 2-1 in those games while Green Bay went 3-0 against those common opponents at Lambeau. On the road the Cowboys prevailed 3-0 while the Pack didn't fare quite so well going only 1-3.

Both had a home game against the Eagles and Lions. Dallas lost theirs to Philly 33-10 on Thanksgiving Day and defeated Detroit in their Wild Card playoff last weekend 24-20. The Packers crushed the Eagles 53-20 and beat the Lions 30-20.

The Packers lost their season opener at Seattle 36-16 and Dallas beat the Seahawks there 30-20.

The Packers beat the Bears at Soldier Field 38-17 and the Cowboys won there 41-28. Green Bay beat the Bears at Lambeau 55-14.

New Orleans was perhaps the biggest differential. Dallas defeated the Saints at home 38-17 while the Packers laid an egg in the Superdome 41-23.

In the two remaining road games the Packers lost at Detroit 19-7 and Dallas beat Philadelphia 38-27.

 

[grampi]

Think the Patriots were the hardest test. Think this will be up there, but I thought the Patriots were bringing their A game thinking its similar to a playoff game. I think the Cowplops can run the ball all they want, problem will be the Packers will have their typical offensive success at Lambeau and the 'plops will settle for more field goals than touchdowns.

I agree, the Pats are a much better team than Dallas...

 

[grampi]

A concern with having so many come from behind wins is that he and his team have had to come from behind so often. If he also had the best overall W-L record in the NFL during his time as a starter that would give him tremendous credibility. If he also had the best come from behind record in the playoffs during his career he would be headed to the HOF. Instead, he has choked at some very crucial times in pressure situations and he's fallen short time and again in the clutch. He's a very good stat QB. There's no denying that. But it's not just what he's capable of doing, it's when. To date, all he's got is a wedding ring. Lots of guys have wedding rings.

Dallas fans are lining up to spout Romo's stats, but until he wins a SB, all those stats mean nothing...

 

[Kimbo Blubbeus]

Cowboy fan here, looking forward to a good game Sunday. I will post a little more later when I have time but for now my objective prediction is

Packers 34 Cowboys 31

Assuming Rodgers is relatively healthy

Anyway, I've lurked this forum for a little while and you guys seem like a pretty knowledgeable bunch.

 

[MichiganSportsTalk]

What correlation are you seeing?

The data sample I used wasn't big enough to accurately show a trend, so I went full on nerd and did some research. Turns out I was wrong.

I took the stats for all active quarterbacks on the 4th qtr comeback list. I then omitted QBs who have played less than 64 games. I figured 4 solid years worth of NFL experience would eliminate a trend that leaned toward rookie mistakes/inexperience. That left me with 25 QBs.

I took the number of games played, and divided that by 4th qtr comeback wins to get a comeback win frequency (CW). The higher the number, the less frequent the comeback win.

I then took the number of pass attempts for their career and divided that by the number of career interceptions to get an INT frequency (INT). The lower the number, the higher the frequency of interceptions thrown.

Here is the graph created after entering all the data into an excel spreadsheet.

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

As the trend line for CW freq goes up (fewer comeback wins), the trend line for INT freq goes down (more interceptions).

So my initial assessment was wrong based on a small sample size. It would seem that taken as a whole, throwing fewer interceptions leads to more comeback wins. Which makes sense considering that the fewer mistakes you make when behind in the 4th qtr, the higher the chance you can get the comeback win.

And to answer the more pressing question, yes, I do get very bored and have too much free time.

 

[DoctorChicken]

Dallas fans are lining up to spout Romo's stats, but until he wins a SB, all those stats mean nothing...

Yeah, like Dan Marino.

 

[Mklangelo]

Cowboy fan here, looking forward to a good game Sunday. I will post a little more later when I have time but for now my objective prediction is

Packers 34 Cowboys 31

Assuming Rodgers is relatively healthy

Anyway, I've lurked this forum for a little while and you guys seem like a pretty knowledgeable bunch.

Welcome to the forum and I'm looking forward to a hard fought battle.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Packers list Rodgers as probable. In addition Boyd, House and Richardson probable as well.

 

[red4tribe]

Rodgers is 10-1 vs Marinelli's defenses in Detroit and Chicago

I saw an article on that for CBS Sports too. I think it's a little deceiving, however. Most of those wins were due to Jay Cutler throwing the game away, rather than Rodgers lighting up the scoreboard. The Packers averaged only 25 points in those wins. And if you look just at Rodgers vs. Marinelli when he was with the Bears, the Packers only averaged only 21.7 points against the Bears defense. Granted, the Bears had a lot more play makers than these Cowboys do, but it seems like the cover 2 scheme slows down the Packers offense. Even the crappy Bucs held the Packers to just 20 points this year and, as we all know, Lovie runs a cover 2 based defense.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I saw an article on that for CBS Sports too. I think it's a little deceiving, however. Most of those wins were due to Jay Cutler throwing the game away, rather than Rodgers lighting up the scoreboard. The Packers averaged only 25 points in those wins. And if you look just at Rodgers vs. Marinelli when he was with the Bears, the Packers only averaged only 21.7 points against the Bears defense. Granted, the Bears had a lot more play makers than these Cowboys do, but it seems like the cover 2 scheme slows down the Packers offense. Even the crappy Bucs held the Packers to just 20 points this year and, as we all know, Lovie runs a cover 2 based defense.

I agree that Marinelli's defenses have given Rodgers some pretty good fits. The Cowboys don't run cover 2 schemes exclusively though and I'm anxious to see if they will continue to line up in single high safety formations vs. the Packers as well.

 

[ExpatPacker]

Yeah, like Dan Marino.

Touché.

 

[THEHEREAFTER]

I agree, the Pats are a much better team than Dallas...

How can we say this definitively? Isn't it all about "matchups?" You can't only use this when it's convenient.

 

[HardRightEdge]

'Boys injury update:

http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/nfl/dallas-cowboys/cowboys-corner-blog/article5696133.html

 

[Vrill]

Yeah, like Dan Marino.

Stats are for losers.

 

[TJV]

'Boys injury update: http://www.star-telegram.com/sports/nfl/dallas-cowboys/cowboys-corner-blog/article5696133.html

I assume players who suffered concussions have to be cleared before returning to practice. If that's true Rolando McClain and Mincey both returned to practice and will play. According to the link, Hitchens played last week without practicing so he's likely to play. I don't know about Terrell McClain who didn't practice but you'd think if there's anyway a player can contribute he'll be on the field.