Assuming no other FA signings, where do you think we'll finish this season?

[Dantés]

So instead of giving up 44 points to the Falcons in this year's playoffs we might only give up 35-40? lmao.

Sorry for answering your and Wimm's questions. Maybe if you're just looking to "lyao" you should keep them to yourself next time.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

The bottom line is that regression for elite units is normal. Then you consider that they lost maybe the best OC in the game and yeah, I totally expect significant regression.

Do you see the Packers offense progressing or regressing from 2016? I think most of us automatically assume it will stay right around the "same" with AR at QB. But as we saw in 2015 (23 pts/game-15th in NFL), that isn't always a guarantee. If the offense can continue to dominate and be a top 5 offense, the Packers can be a 8 wins or better team, but without a defense than can prevent the better teams from scoring 30+ points, I just don't see a Packers team that will go all that far.

 

[PackAttack12]

Sorry for answering your and Wimm's questions. Maybe if you're just looking to "lyao" you should keep them to yourself next time.

Just attempting to understand how we're going to magically be so much better, and the Falcons are suddenly going to regress to the point where it's going to be a fair fight. And like Wimm pointed out, that's failing to take into consideration the rest of the conference and the potential improvements they will make.

 

[C-Lee]

I can see the Falcons being very rattled from the Super Bowl still.

I also think Dak isn't that great next season. Cowboy's defense sucks too.

 

[XPack]

Either way all this only serves for philosophical discussions. We can't base a season on opponents regressing (at least more than us ).

All that matters is can we put more points in defence and let in less points on Defence?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Either way all this only serves for philosophical discussions. We can't base a season on opponents regressing (at least more than us ).

I NEVER rely on that, I am just counting on all the other teams suffering major injuries!

 

[Dantés]

Just attempting to understand how we're going to magically be so much better, and the Falcons are suddenly going to regress to the point where it's going to be a fair fight. And like Wimm pointed out, that's failing to take into consideration the rest of the conference and the potential improvements they will make.

1. I never even attempted to say that our primary means of improvement is just other team's regression. I was asked some questions about the Falcons and I answered them. It would be totally foolish to bank on other teams regressing as the way we take a step forward. I've said elsewhere that health and development are the primary ways the Packers defensive performance may improve in 2017. People are so damn sensitive to anyone saying anything about the Packers maybe improving under Thompson that you can't hardly say anything without an argument. I merely pointed out that even with a bad defense we made it to within a game of the SB. You then asked me my thoughts on ATL and I answered them.

2. We got blown out by ATL in the playoffs. Everything went wrong and they played fantastic. But it's a little silly to me that people say it can't be a "fair fight" or that being in Lambeau would make no difference. We played them in ATL in week 8 and lost by a single point.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

We got blown out by ATL in the playoffs. Everything went wrong and they played fantastic. But it's a little silly to me that people say it can't be a "fair fight" or that being in Lambeau would make no difference. We played them in ATL in week 8 and lost by a single point.

There's no doubt the Packers have a realistic shot at winning every single game against any given opponent as long as the offense performs at an elite level. An improved defense would increase those chances though.

 

[OldSchool101]

in AT&T Stadium

 

[Dantés]

Do you see the Packers offense progressing or regressing from 2016? I think most of us automatically assume it will stay right around the "same" with AR at QB. But as we saw in 2015 (23 pts/game-15th in NFL), that isn't always a guarantee. If the offense can continue to dominate and be a top 5 offense, the Packers can be a 8 wins or better team, but without a defense than can prevent the better teams from scoring 30+ points, I just don't see a Packers team that will go all that far.

I would not predict significant regression for the Packers and their 27 points per game. It's the outlier, historically high point totals that tend to see the regressions. From 2011-2016, GB failed to score 26 or more per game just once. That 26-28 range is demonstrably more sustainable.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I would not predict significant regression for the Packers and their 27 points per game. It's the outlier, historically high point totals that tend to see the regressions. From 2011-2016, GB failed to score 26 or more per game just once. That 26-28 range is demonstrably more sustainable.

While that's true, scoring an average of 26-28 points won't result in a lot of wins against top 15 offenses when giving up 36.9 per game against those teams.

 

[Dantés]

There's no doubt the Packers have a realistic shot at winning every single game against any given opponent as long as the offense performs at an elite level. An improved defense would increase those chances though.

Absolutely. I've said I wish they would have done more to address the defense. Seeing as how they haven't, I've pointed out that health (e.g. not losing corners 1, 2, and 3 for large swaths of the season) and development are the ways in which that could happen, if it happens, at this point. I can see how that could actually work to an extent, given how young the defense is with high draft picks on rookie deals. However, the mere suggestion that that's an avenue for improvement draws the ire of some posters who apparently just want me to say that we suck and will always suck and accuse me of banking on "Magic and pixie dust."

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Absolutely. I've said I wish they would have done more to address the defense. Seeing as how they haven't, I've pointed out that health (e.g. not losing corners 1, 2, and 3 for large swaths of the season) and development are the ways in which that could happen, if it happens, at this point. I can see how that could actually work to an extent, given how young the defense is with high draft picks on rookie deals. However, the mere suggestion that that's an avenue for improvement draws the ire of some posters who apparently just want me to say that we suck and will always suck and accuse me of banking on "Magic and pixie dust."

I agree that it's possible the defense improves because several young players on defense progress significantly this season. I'm not excited about Thompson seemingly relying on it though, especially as it hasn't worked at safety and inside linebacker in past seasons.

 

[Dantés]

While that's true, scoring an average of 26-28 points won't result in a lot of wins against top 15 offenses when giving up 36.9 per game against those teams.

Of course. That's why we're talking about the possibility of defensive improvement. I don't think we're bound to that terrible number. In 2015, including the playoffs, they played 8 games against top half scoring defenses and allowed an average of 24.6 points per contest. Obviously that's nothing to brag about, but it's dramatically better than 37.

 

[Dantés]

I agree that it's possible the defense improves because several young players on defense progress significantly this season. I'm not excited about Thompson seemingly relying on it though, especially as it hasn't worked at safety and inside linebacker in past seasons.

Safety improved big time actually he invested picks there. Burnett in the 3rd and Haha in the 1st. The reason is was bad for so long is because he wasn't making the investment. In 2015 and 2016, TT spent 7 picks in the top four rounds on defensive players. We will see what 2017 brings. So if he did his job, we will see those investments beginning to bring return soon. If he's lost his draft touch and the majority bust while he doesn't use FA heavily, then he has to go.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Of course. That's why we're talking about the possibility of defensive improvement. I don't think we're bound to that terrible number. In 2015, including the playoffs, they played 8 games against top half scoring defenses and allowed an average of 24.6 points per contest. Obviously that's nothing to brag about, but it's dramatically better than 37.

It's true the defense performed at a better level in 2015 but for sure benefitted from having a #1 cornerback in Shields for most of that season.

 

[PackAttack12]

Absolutely. I've said I wish they would have done more to address the defense. Seeing as how they haven't, I've pointed out that health (e.g. not losing corners 1, 2, and 3 for large swaths of the season) and development are the ways in which that could happen, if it happens, at this point. I can see how that could actually work to an extent, given how young the defense is with high draft picks on rookie deals. However, the mere suggestion that that's an avenue for improvement draws the ire of some posters who apparently just want me to say that we suck and will always suck and accuse me of banking on "Magic and pixie dust."

My only frustration is that Thompson is relying heavily on potential improvement from within as a means to improve the defense for this season. And I know that he is probably thinking "if only we can stay healthy". Blah.

I agree that it's possible for the team to improve simply due to inner development. But 1. I don't want to have to rely upon that and 2. Will it be enough to bridge the gap between atrocity and respectability?

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I would not predict significant regression for the Packers and their 27 points per game. It's the outlier, historically high point totals that tend to see the regressions. From 2011-2016, GB failed to score 26 or more per game just once. That 26-28 range is demonstrably more sustainable.

While I do agree with you, we "should be able to" expect something similar from the Packers offense, those numbers can also be a bit skewed as to what AR and the offense does when facing top 10 defenses. My other underlying worry with the offense is that with the amount of attention recent drafts have put on the Defense, our offense has gotten pretty thin at every position but TE.

Sadly, I am also expecting similar results from the defense we saw in 2016. A unit that can keep us in an entire game against average to below average offenses, but one that tends to fold up like a cheap tent against a solid offense or one that has a QB that has gotten into his groove that day. Also a unit that fared better for our "run the table" portion of the season, by the team having a pretty hefty margin in the turnover department.

As of today, my hope for the defense to improve rests on the front 7 improving, because I really don't see our secondary being that good (even healthy), unless they get a lot of help from the front lines. That means that Clay has to return to form, Perry has to stay healthy and be just as good, if not better as last year. Martinez, Ryan and Thomas have to play better and make some big plays. Daniels, the one player I don't worry about (except injury). Clark needs to continue to improve. Toss in growth by some of the second tier guys as well as a rookie or two and the defense has a chance to improve. The Packers front 7 is going to have to really disrupt the opposing QB and stop the run in the process, otherwise its going to be much of the same in 2017, our secondary is going to get lit up. All that said, this year is really going to put TT's draft and develop mentality front and center when it comes to the defense and I hope the offense doesn't get exposed by that mentality and the lack of attention to it (aside from TE) the past several years.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Safety improved big time actually he invested picks there. Burnett in the 3rd and Haha in the 1st. The reason is was bad for so long is because he wasn't making the investment.

It took Thompson three years to at least somehow adequately replace Collins by drafting Clinton-Dix. It seems that it takes him way too long to make the necessary investment to upgrade an obvious position of need, something that seems to currently happen at the cornerback position.

That has been and still is my main criticism of TT's overall body of work.

 

[PackAttack12]

While I do agree with you, we "should be able to" expect something similar from the Packers offense, those numbers can also be a bit skewed as to what AR and the offense does when facing top 10 defenses. My other underlying worry with the offense is that with the amount of attention recent drafts have put on the Defense, our offense has gotten pretty thin at every position but TE.

Sadly, I am also expecting similar results from the defense we saw in 2016. A unit that can keep us in an entire game against average to below average offenses, but one that tends to fold up like a cheap tent against a solid offense or one that has a QB that has gotten into his groove that day. Also a unit that fared better for our "run the table" portion of the season, by the team having a pretty hefty margin in the turnover department.

As of today, my hope for the defense to improve rests on the front 7 improving, because I really don't see our secondary being that good (even healthy), unless they get a lot of help from the front lines. That means that Clay has to return to form, Perry has to stay healthy and be just as good, if not better as last year. Martinez, Ryan and Thomas have to play better and make some big plays. Daniels, the one player I don't worry about (except injury). Clark needs to continue to improve. Toss in growth by some of the second tier guys as well as a rookie or two and the defense has a chance to improve. The Packers front 7 is going to have to really disrupt the opposing QB and stop the run in the process, otherwise its going to be much of the same in 2017, our secondary is going to get lit up. All that said, this year is really going to put TT's draft and develop mentality front and center when it comes to the defense and I hope the offense doesn't get exposed by that mentality and the lack of attention to it (aside from TE) the past several years.

To your point about the offense, just losing Jordy in 2015 led to the offense looking more discombobulated than at any other time in the Rodgers era. There were other factors that went into that, but that was the single most critical thing that happened. And what you saw was a lack of a guy to step in and stop the bleeding.

Essentially the same thing happened when Cook was out this past season. 10-3 I think with him, 2-4 without. What options did we have at running back when Lacy went down?

That's how vulnerable the offense is. Your concerns are not without foundation.

 

[brandon2348]

Thompson doesn't exhaust all options when it cones to addressing needs. He is not using an "all in" approach when it comes to winning right now. The whole thing is an endless cycle to snail around filling a need which by the time it has been addressed another need pops up. He is like a dog chasing his own tail over and over again. This whole thing is getting old and stale. He just doesn't get it and my patience has worn thin thinking he ever will.

I'm pretty pissed and the way it sits right now I'm not gonna go "all in" and pay ridiculous money to go watch the Packers when the fans are getting short changed. I'm gonna take a page from Thompson's book and be a tight *** to take my wife's daughter to Lambeau and just go to family night this year and that's it.

Thompson is ruining what really could be a good time.

 

[Dantés]

It's true the defense performed at a better level in 2015 but for sure benefitted from having a #1 cornerback in Shields for most of that season.

They were also pretty healthy overall. I'm still waiting on 2016 AGL.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

They were also pretty healthy overall. I'm still waiting on 2016 AGL.

Just posted it in another thread:

https://www.packerforum.com/threads/2016-adjusted-games-lost.72779/

 

[Dantés]

Just posted it in another thread:

https://www.packerforum.com/threads/2016-adjusted-games-lost.72779/

Thanks. Certainly more of an issue in 2016 than in 2015. But still only an average amount. It probably didn't help that many of them came all at one position, like at CB.

 

[Mondio]

Thompson doesn't exhaust all options when it cones to addressing needs. He is not using an "all in" approach when it comes to winning right now. The whole thing is an endless cycle to snail around filling a need which by the time it has been addressed another need pops up. He is like a dog chasing his own tail over and over again. This whole thing is getting old and stale. He just doesn't get it and my patience has worn thin thinking he ever will.

I'm pretty pissed and the way it sits right now I'm not gonna go "all in" and pay ridiculous money to go watch the Packers when the fans are getting short changed. I'm gonna take a page from Thompson's book and be a tight *** to take my wife's daughter to Lambeau and just go to family night this year and that's it.

Thompson is ruining what really could be a good time.

If you're not having fun, it's not Ted Thompsons fault.