Where Are You Taking Crazy Pills?

[Dantés]

Inevitably with each draft class there are consensus opinions or takes that I just cannot understand and it makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

That doesn't mean I'm always right about it, but I think all of us have players where we just can't get our minds around the way other people see them.

Here are mine:

1. How is Jordan Addison 4+ rounds better than Charlie Jones? I realize that Addison is significantly younger-- that makes sense. But otherwise, these guys have extremely similar profiles in terms of size, athleticism, and production (in 2022). I would totally stamp taking the young player earlier, but the chasm between these two players makes no sense to me.

2. Why do people think they can land Jonathan Mingo on day 3? He's big, he's truly an elite athlete, he has SEC production, he isn't over-aged, he likes to block, he can play all over the formation. I go on Twitter and I see random fans hyping him up like crazy and then say "He's my sleeper in the 5th round!" WHY DO YOU THINK THAT KIND OF PROSPECT GOES 5TH ROUND??

3. Why do people think Tank Dell is draftable? We did this already with Tutu Atwell.

4. Why do people think Michael Mayer is big? This is the one that really drives me nuts, because there's no debate here. It's all just factual. I keep hearing him comp'd to Jason Witten. Witten was Darnell Washington sized! I was listening to a podcast where they were talking about Mayer and LaPorta and how much bigger Mayer is. At the combine, Mayer was ONE INCH and THREE POUNDS bigger than LaPorta with SHORTER ARMS, SMALLER HANDS, and a SMALLER WINGSPAN. And yet everyone and their mom is like "Oh yeah, Mayer-- he's your prototypical Y tight end." Weight-- 33rd%, Hands-- 24th%, Arms-- 7th%, Wing-- 9th%.

5. Why do people think Calijah Kancey should go round 1? He's barely 6'0" 280# and his arms are 30.5" long, which is the 1st% for iDL. Even the most optimistic comps of tiny iDL (Donald, Oliver, Jarrett, Atkins) had much longer arms. Where do you play a DT that can't handle a block because his arms can't reach the offensive lineman?

6. Why is Devon Witherspoon considered a slam dunk top 10 prospect? Tape is good and people love his feistiness-- I get that. But he's nearly 6'0" and 180# and clearly not a high level athlete as he chose not to test other than the forty. You only do that if you know your numbers will hurt you. But if your game is based on physicality and you're 180 lbs, I am nervous! If you look at the list of 180# or lighter cornerbacks, there aren't many successful ones. The ones that exist were typically shorter (i.e. denser) and high end testers who won with athleticism not physicality. To me, Witherspoon and Cam Smith should be considered in exactly the same range.

 

[tynimiller]

Love this...I'll just add a few additional ones I have on top of yours:

Skoronski is an elite Tackle prospect? I'm sorry I just don't see it. He isn't just an outlier low on length, or just below that 34 threshold that typically successful elite Tackles have in the NFL...he is nearly two inches shorter and is closer to 32 than he even is to 32.75 inches.... I'm sorry if I am a GM and I'm wanting to draft a guy I can envision with the most likelihood of success for my team at tackle...there are about 7 or 8 guys I'm drafting well before Skoronski without even thinking. Now if I picture him being a starting guard out the gate or a possible test at tackle I get it, but I just cannot wrap my head around folks thinking he is a definitive elite tackle.

Folks pretending Kraft is clear better prospect than Schoonmaker? From every angle I see a better TE prospect and current player in Schoonmaker than exists in Tucker Kraft. He is actually taller, faster both at forty and ten split, essentially same vertical, broad jump is better, better shuttle and his 3 cone is a lot better than Kraft. Bigger school prospect, successfully laid down solid blocking tape against higher level athletes than Kraft has ever faced. The only knock slightly could be argued he doesn't offer the same receiving ability...but the that's a team scheme IMO. The only true knock I see is age perhaps as Schoonmaker will be a 25 year old rookie in 2023....but outside that Luke Schoonmaker is a CLEAR better prospect in every way you slice it essentially.

Felix Anudike-Uzomah not getting first round buzz like Will McDonald is? FAU in every facet on film, in measurables and production I just see the same type player as I do in Will....except unlike Will, Felix is not an old prospect. Will is essentially two and a half years older than Felix.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Inevitably with each draft class there are consensus opinions or takes that I just cannot understand and it makes me feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

That doesn't mean I'm always right about it, but I think all of us have players where we just can't get our minds around the way other people see them.

Here are mine:

1. How is Jordan Addison 4+ rounds better than Charlie Jones? I realize that Addison is significantly younger-- that makes sense. But otherwise, these guys have extremely similar profiles in terms of size, athleticism, and production (in 2022). I would totally stamp taking the young player earlier, but the chasm between these two players makes no sense to me.

2. Why do people think they can land Jonathan Mingo on day 3? He's big, he's truly an elite athlete, he has SEC production, he isn't over-aged, he likes to block, he can play all over the formation. I go on Twitter and I see random fans hyping him up like crazy and then say "He's my sleeper in the 5th round!" WHY DO YOU THINK THAT KIND OF PROSPECT GOES 5TH ROUND??

3. Why do people think Tank Dell is draftable? We did this already with Tutu Atwell.

4. Why do people think Michael Mayer is big? This is the one that really drives me nuts, because there's no debate here. It's all just factual. I keep hearing him comp'd to Jason Witten. Witten was Darnell Washington sized! I was listening to a podcast where they were talking about Mayer and LaPorta and how much bigger Mayer is. At the combine, Mayer was ONE INCH and THREE POUNDS bigger than LaPorta with SHORTER ARMS, SMALLER HANDS, and a SMALLER WINGSPAN. And yet everyone and their mom is like "Oh yeah, Mayer-- he's your prototypical Y tight end." Weight-- 33rd%, Hands-- 24th%, Arms-- 7th%, Wing-- 9th%.

5. Why do people think Calijah Kancey should go round 1? He's barely 6'0" 280# and his arms are 30.5" long, which is the 1st% for iDL. Even the most optimistic comps of tiny iDL (Donald, Oliver, Jarrett, Atkins) had much longer arms. Where do you play a DT that can't handle a block because his arms can't reach the offensive lineman?

6. Why is Devon Witherspoon considered a slam dunk top 10 prospect? Tape is good and people love his feistiness-- I get that. But he's nearly 6'0" and 180# and clearly not a high level athlete as he chose not to test other than the forty. You only do that if you know your numbers will hurt you. But if your game is based on physicality and you're 180 lbs, I am nervous! If you look at the list of 180# or lighter cornerbacks, there aren't many successful ones. The ones that exist were typically shorter (i.e. denser) and high end testers who won with athleticism not physicality. To me, Witherspoon and Cam Smith should be considered in exactly the same range.

#4 blew my mind. I haven't looked up Witten's size in a long time and I was just thinking he was 6'5" 250-255lbs. That dude was way bigger than I thought. I also think LaPorta is a better TE prospect than Mayer and I loved Mayer last year. LaPorta just had a terrible offense, but he still stood out on tape and after his testing, I'm sold.

Agree with #3 & #4 as well. Haven't watched Charlie tbh, I'll put that on the list.

The one I slightly disagree with is #6. I know that secondary was stacked, but Witherspoon seemed like a very smart player on tape that could overcome the the testing numbers/athleticism critiques and I think that's why he's standing by the film. I do think Cam Smith though and I heard somewhere that teams would consider moving him to safety which I don't understand.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Love this...I'll just add a few additional ones I have on top of yours:

Skoronski is an elite Tackle prospect? I'm sorry I just don't see it. He isn't just an outlier low on length, or just below that 34 threshold that typically successful elite Tackles have in the NFL...he is nearly two inches shorter and is closer to 32 than he even is to 32.75 inches.... I'm sorry if I am a GM and I'm wanting to draft a guy I can envision with the most likelihood of success for my team at tackle...there are about 7 or 8 guys I'm drafting well before Skoronski without even thinking. Now if I picture him being a starting guard out the gate or a possible test at tackle I get it, but I just cannot wrap my head around folks thinking he is a definitive elite tackle.

Folks pretending Kraft is clear better prospect than Schoonmaker? From every angle I see a better TE prospect and current player in Schoonmaker than exists in Tucker Kraft. He is actually taller, faster both at forty and ten split, essentially same vertical, broad jump is better, better shuttle and his 3 cone is a lot better than Kraft. Bigger school prospect, successfully laid down solid blocking tape against higher level athletes than Kraft has ever faced. The only knock slightly could be argued he doesn't offer the same receiving ability...but the that's a team scheme IMO. The only true knock I see is age perhaps as Schoonmaker will be a 25 year old rookie in 2023....but outside that Luke Schoonmaker is a CLEAR better prospect in every way you slice it essentially.

Felix Anudike-Uzomah not getting first round buzz like Will McDonald is? FAU in every facet on film, in measurables and production I just see the same type player as I do in Will....except unlike Will, Felix is not an old prospect. Will is essentially two and a half years older than Felix.

I honestly want either FAU or McDonald for an edge rush, but you make a valid point, why not go with the younger player with the higher ceiling here.

 

[Dantés]

#4 blew my mind. I haven't looked up Witten's size in a long time and I was just thinking he was 6'5" 250-255lbs. That dude was way bigger than I thought. I also think LaPorta is a better TE prospect than Mayer and I loved Mayer last year. LaPorta just had a terrible offense, but he still stood out on tape and after his testing, I'm sold.

Agree with #3 & #4 as well. Haven't watched Charlie tbh, I'll put that on the list.

The one I slightly disagree with is #6. I know that secondary was stacked, but Witherspoon seemed like a very smart player on tape that could overcome the the testing numbers/athleticism critiques and I think that's why he's standing by the film. I do think Cam Smith though and I heard somewhere that teams would consider moving him to safety which I don't understand.

To be clear-- I think Witherspoon is a great prospect. But I see the draft as a game of percentages. The way to be successful is to find the overlap of 1) guys you like on tape and 2) guys who fit the mold of what has succeeded in the NFL.

Most people love Witherspoon on tape, but the success rate of a 6'0" 180# corner is tiny. That doesn't mean he can't succeed-- of course he can. But history says his odds are terrible.

It's the same logic with Skoronski. Everyone loves his tape at tackle. OL with sub 33" arms that are good at tackle virtually don't exist. So given that the hit rate in the draft isn't super high to begin with, is it wise to bet on an outlier?

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

To be clear-- I think Witherspoon is a great prospect. But I see the draft as a game of percentages. The way to be successful is to find the overlap of 1) guys you like on tape and 2) guys who fit the mold of what has succeeded in the NFL.

Most people love Witherspoon on tape, but the success rate of a 6'0" 180# corner is tiny. That doesn't mean he can't succeed-- of course he can. But history says his odds are terrible.

It's the same logic with Skoronski. Everyone loves his tape at tackle. OL with sub 33" arms that are good at tackle virtually don't exist. So given that the hit rate in the draft isn't super high to begin with, is it wise to bet on an outlier?

Ya, I’ve been in the camp that Skoronski should be moved inside and would probably be a stud guard at the next level in doing so. He could succeed outside, but I don’t like that length really. Maybe at RT, but not even really then.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

I was going to do one for fun, but I just listened to the ringer on the way home and it’ll be like I’m copying them. They basically had why Carter when you can have Benton later.

I’m a Georgia homer so this isn’t a Wisconsin homer take, but I’ve really like Benton for awhile now and was hoping he’d be a sneaky 2nd or 3rd rounder. It seems everyone is warming up on him.

 

[tynimiller]

I was going to do one for fun, but I just listened to the ringer on the way home and it’ll be like I’m copying them. They basically had why Carter when you can have Benton later.

I’m a Georgia homer so this isn’t a Wisconsin homer take, but I’ve really like Benton for awhile now and was hoping he’d be a sneaky 2nd or 3rd rounder. It seems everyone is warming up on him.

I’d Benton makes it to the third that is steal of draft likely.

 

[PackFan2]

I love Bijan Robinson he's RB1 this year but to say he's the next generational RB? Im not so sure about that. Especially stating Robinson can play in the slot and that he's McCaffrey level. PUMP THE BREAKS.

I really liked Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker last year. Walker was my RB1 last year and Hall was my RB2. No one was talking about Hall and Walker as "generational talent." Walker was my RB1 because of his home run ability, he literally made something out of nothing at Michigan State. Hall was VERY close in my ranking. I have Walker and Hall rated higher than Robinson.

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

Another one brought up on the Ringer that I agree with is why take Calijah Kancey when you can take Ade Ade. Similar size, both inside pass rush specialists, but you get elite athleticism and longer arms with Ade.

 

[tynimiller]

You know what I got another:

Rashee Rice is getting utterly disrespected....yet Jalin Hyatt is heralded as a first round potentially? To me film, measurables, productions...everything is even between these two...Hyatt gets slight edge for age and Rice gets slight edge for actually having a man's body profile LOL.

Sorry I just don't see it....here's the two compared below, I won't say who is who but I kept the order the same throughout:

Height: 6005 vs 6001
Weight: 204 vs 176
Forty Time: 4.51 vs 4.4
20 Split: 2.54 vs 2.54
10 split: 1.5 vs 1.5
Vertical: 41 vs 40
Broad: 1008 vs 1103
Shuttle: 4.23 vs 4.33
3Cone: 7.02 vs 7.06

Yardage Production:
Last year: 1,355 vs 1,267
Last 2 Years: 2,025 vs 1,493
Last 3 Years: 2,708 vs 1,771

Last Year TDs: 10 vs 15
Last 2 Years: 19 vs 17
Last 3 Years: 24 vs 19

Last Year YPC: 14.1 vs 18.9
2021 Year YPC: 10.5 vs 10.8
2020 Year YPC: 14.2 vs 13.8

100 Yard Games Last Year: 6 vs 5
Receptions Last Year: 96 vs 67
2021 Receptions: 64 vs 18
2020 Receptions: 48 vs 20

2022 Slot Snaps: 81 vs 371
2021 Slot Snaps: 317 vs 177

2022 Pass Snaps: 469 vs 425
2021 Pass Snaps: 340 vs 184

2022 PFF Overall Grade: 85.6 vs 77.4
2021 PFF Overall Grade: 79.9 vs 56.9
2022 PFF Yards Per Route Run: 3.05 vs 3.27
Contested Catch Rate: 48.5% vs 60%
Grade vs Man Coverage: 62.1 vs 76.4%
Drop Rate: 8.6% vs 6.9%

 

[Dantés]

You know what I got another:

Rashee Rice is getting utterly disrespected....yet Jalin Hyatt is heralded as a first round potentially? To me film, measurables, productions...everything is even between these two...Hyatt gets slight edge for age and Rice gets slight edge for actually having a man's body profile LOL.

Sorry I just don't see it....here's the two compared below, I won't say who is who but I kept the order the same throughout:

Height: 6005 vs 6001
Weight: 204 vs 176
Forty Time: 4.51 vs 4.4
20 Split: 2.54 vs 2.54
10 split: 1.5 vs 1.5
Vertical: 41 vs 40
Broad: 1008 vs 1103
Shuttle: 4.23 vs 4.33
3Cone: 7.02 vs 7.06

Yardage Production:
Last year: 1,355 vs 1,267
Last 2 Years: 2,025 vs 1,493
Last 3 Years: 2,708 vs 1,771

Last Year TDs: 10 vs 15
Last 2 Years: 19 vs 17
Last 3 Years: 24 vs 19

Last Year YPC: 14.1 vs 18.9
2021 Year YPC: 10.5 vs 10.8
2020 Year YPC: 14.2 vs 13.8

100 Yard Games Last Year: 6 vs 5
Receptions Last Year: 96 vs 67
2021 Receptions: 64 vs 18
2020 Receptions: 48 vs 20

2022 Slot Snaps: 81 vs 371
2021 Slot Snaps: 317 vs 177

2022 Pass Snaps: 469 vs 425
2021 Pass Snaps: 340 vs 184

2022 PFF Overall Grade: 85.6 vs 77.4
2021 PFF Overall Grade: 79.9 vs 56.9
2022 PFF Yards Per Route Run: 3.05 vs 3.27
Contested Catch Rate: 48.5% vs 60%
Grade vs Man Coverage: 62.1 vs 76.4%
Drop Rate: 8.6% vs 6.9%

Reading between the lines of several comments, I think that Rice is kind of immature and a head case and so there’s a discount on his draft stock. What I’ve read is that it was bad when he was younger and got better this last year but teams need to figure out if it will stick.

The Raiders spent a round one pick on Damon Arnette because it seemed like he had grown up and then he reverted right back to being an idiot and washed out of the league.

 

[tynimiller]

Reading between the lines of several comments, I think that Rice is kind of immature and a head case and so there’s a discount on his draft stock. What I’ve read is that it was bad when he was younger and got better this last year but teams need to figure out if it will stick.

The Raiders spent a round one pick on Damon Arnette because it seemed like he had grown up and then he reverted right back to being an idiot and washed out of the league.

FTR I don't think either is 1st round worthy, but it boggles my mind he isn't talked about in the second but guys like Hyatt, Dell, Boutte and few others are getting second round chatter. Rice I think has a LOT to offer and his slot experience in the past and then dominating out wide this last year just added to what he has done. Don't get me wrong if you told me we were getting either him or a guy like Mingo or a guy like Tillman in the second I'm probably going that route...but his slot versatility along with actual size is just something I think I'd rather have long term....albeit homerun Hyatt is good too, not discrediting him - just think folks are bypassing Rice unnecessarily.

 

[OldSchool101]

Folks pretending Kraft is clear better prospect than Schoonmaker? From every angle I see a better TE prospect and current player in Schoonmaker than exists in Tucker Kraft. He is actually taller, faster both at forty and ten split, essentially same vertical, broad jump is better, better shuttle and his 3 cone is a lot better than Kraft. Bigger school prospect, successfully laid down solid blocking tape against higher level athletes than Kraft has ever faced. The only knock slightly could be argued he doesn't offer the same receiving ability...but the that's a team scheme IMO. The only true knock I see is age perhaps as Schoonmaker will be a 25 year old rookie in 2023....but outside that Luke Schoonmaker is a CLEAR better prospect in every way you slice it essentially.

I’m going to come to Tucker’s Defense a little.
Kraft is unrealized potential. He Redshirted his Freshman season and had the next year hampered by CoVid. When he the shackles came off he lit up the field. He’s really a less realized version of Dallas Goedert. Those 2 are splitting hairs in athleticism and Kraft broke Goederts weight lifting records at College. Goedert came in as a 6.30 rated prospect verses Krafts 6.28, again splitting hairs.

One thing that transitions is speed and strength and At 6’4 1/2” 254lb Kraft has got both. 23 reps same as Dallas. Tucker is arguable the 4th-5th best TE in a strong TE class. Had he not injured he’d be a top 50 selection, brought low because of a lower class competition. He’s do it all, but excels in play action. He’ll need minor work inline blocking, but he’s strong as a mule and GB would be an ideal fit. He moves deceptively fluid. He looks like he’s lumbering as he’s punishing you down the field.

That said, I do believe it will take Kraft a year to ramp up (another perfect alignment with the Pack) as he declared limping in as a Junior verses Goedert being a 5th year Senior. He’s a Round behind Goedert because he lacks playing time. Goedert went the pick before the Cowboys wouldve selected him there at 50. We could tell that by Cowboys board room throwing papers in the air. GB should pull a Philly and get him around pick 70-75 if he’s there. Leap frog The Patriots.

 

[tynimiller]

I’ll say another that I know many are not gonna agree with….Zay Flowers is an outlier frame, he knew he had to weigh up and still is lower percentile fatted up - I love what he may be, and is….but just like Skoronski is just a freaking atypical outlier I cannot justify a first and struggle even with a second for Zay.

That said I can easily justify a second on Zay more than a first on Skoronski

 

[ThePerfectBeard]

I’ll say another that I know many are not gonna agree with….Zay Flowers is an outlier frame, he knew he had to weigh up and still is lower percentile fatted up - I love what he may be, and is….but just like Skoronski is just a freaking atypical outlier I cannot justify a first and struggle even with a second for Zay.

That said I can easily justify a second on Zay more than a first on Skoronski

Oh man, Zay is my boy and I see a lot of Tyler Lockett in his game with the potential upside of an AB, but that's a lot of draft capital to find out. I'd much rather take a swing at Marvin Mims a little later even though I think he's going to go sooner than people think.

 

[tynimiller]

Oh man, Zay is my boy and I see a lot of Tyler Lockett in his game with the potential upside of an AB, but that's a lot of draft capital to find out. I'd much rather take a swing at Marvin Mims a little later even though I think he's going to go sooner than people think.

I’ll put it this way I see Mims or Rice as those slot options that should be a six out of ten (minimum) and can be for years…

Zay I think is either a nine or never can stay healthy. He can be very special but his outlier status also means he could be precisely what history tells us most are his size.