2024 Salary Cap as related to Free Agency

Pokerbrat2000

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I respectfully disagree that those 13 win teams did not have holes. They obviously were not good enough to even get to a SB let alone win one. IMO they absolutely were deficient at both WR and TE as far as pass catching depth.

I disagree with your notion that not winning a SB as a 13 win team, means you weren't good enough to win one. Change the outcome of a play here or there in the 3 playoff losses and the Packers are SB Champs.

However, I agree that the Packers biggest weakness with those teams was their receiving room. I have to, I complained about it for years. :)
 

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I disagree with your notion that not winning a SB as a 13 win team, means you weren't good enough to win one. Change the outcome of a play here or there in the 3 playoff losses and the Packers are SB Champs.

However, I agree that the Packers biggest weakness with those teams was their receiving room. I have to, I complained about it for years. :)
Okay, by that logic this Packer team was good enough to win a SB. Make a FG and change another play or 2 and the Packers are SB Champs. So once again I can't help but wonder, why now and not then? Thanks for helping prove my point.
 

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I disagree with your notion that not winning a SB as a 13 win team, means you weren't good enough to win one. Change the outcome of a play here or there in the 3 playoff losses and the Packers are SB Champs.

However, I agree that the Packers biggest weakness with those teams was their receiving room. I have to, I complained about it for years. :)
Disagree. One of those 13 win teams (2021?) had the most efficient offense in the history of the modern NFL. Defense and Special Teams play held those 20 and 21 teams back. Not offense. No amount of all-pro wide receivers would have made a difference.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Okay, by that logic this Packer team was good enough to win a SB. Make a FG and change another play or 2 and the Packers are SB Champs. So once again I can't help but wonder, why now and not then? Thanks for helping prove my point.
Why now? I think it is pretty obvious that this very young team grew-up/developed faster than most expected. However they were still just a 9-8 team, with some obvious holes at certain positions (Safety, CB, ILB). Add losing a few guys this season and that they also need a backup RB, OL and maybe even kicker. So this is a team that Gute will be looking to improve upon with both Free Agents and the draft. I still feel that you improve your future teams with the draft, you plug your immediate holes through Free Agency.

Back to those three 13 win teams and how they differ from this 9-8 team. At a quick glance and as you imply, the 9-8 team made it just as far as the 2021 team that got knocked out after their first round bye by the same 49'ers. My guess is that Gute viewed those 3 teams (13 wins) as pretty complete and not missing a lot of parts, not to mention not a lot of present or short term cap space. So instead of adding high end free agents, he added bargain free agents and draft picks to try and get those teams over the hump and into Super Bowls.

I am sure we could dissect each and every season and say "they lost this guy in Free Agency and the replaced him with this, this guy didn't develop, so they replaced him with this, etc." Also, whether Gute was correct in doing what he did, is totally up for debate. Like I said, IMO he should have gone after 2-3 players that immediately improved the receiving room (TE's and WR's) and that should have done b4 and after Adams left.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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Disagree. One of those 13 win teams (2021?) had the most efficient offense in the history of the modern NFL. Defense and Special Teams play held those 20 and 21 teams back. Not offense. No amount of all-pro wide receivers would have made a difference.
We will have to agree to disagree on this. I don't disagree with you that the defense and special teams could have been better, but I strongly feel the offense could have been phenomenal. That offense only scored 10 points against the 49'ers in the Divisional game, the 49ers scored 13 to win. In that game only 3 players caught passes (for a gain). Aaron Jones: 9 for 129 yds. Adams: 9 for 80 yards and Lazard: 1 catch, 6 yds. How is that a proficient offense? The defense didn't lose that game.
 

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Why now? I think it is pretty obvious that this very young team that grew-up/developed faster than most expected. However they were still just a 9-8 team, with some obvious holes at certain positions (Safety, CB, ILB). Add losing a few guys this season and that they also need a backup RB, OL and maybe even kicker. So this is a team that Gute will be looking to improve upon with both Free Agents and the draft. I still feel that you improve your future teams with the draft, you plug your immediate holes through Free Agency.

Back to those three 13 win teams and how they differ from this 9-8 team. At a quick glance and as you imply, the 9-8 team made it just as far as the 2021 team that got knocked out after their first round bye by the same 49'ers. My guess is that Gute viewed those 3 teams (13 wins) as pretty complete and not missing a lot of parts, not to mention not a lot of present or short term cap space. So instead of adding high end free agents, he added bargain free agents and draft picks to try and get those teams over the hump and into Super Bowls.

I am sure we could dissect each and every season and say "they lost this guy in Free Agency and the replaced him with this, this guy didn't develop, so they replaced him with this, etc." Also, whether Gute was correct in doing what he did, is totally up for debate. Like I said, IMO he should have gone after 2-3 players that immediately improved the receiving room (TE's and WR's) and that should have done b4 and after Adams left.
I appreciate the discussion. This next couple of months should be fun.
 
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The more I research the depth at the RB position in this draft, the more I see a really good crop of RB’s in that late Day3-Priority, undrafted range. There’s also no shortage of heavyweight options IF Dillon isn’t very reasonable. There’s almost nothing at the top (call it Top40) which is strange. However there’s a thick group of RB’s that would've in the past been Jonathon Franklin types that are predicted to go Rounds6-priority undrafted. This ain’t no Dexter Williams 6th Round draft let me tell ya! God bless you Dexter!

I’d stock Hafley with 1 outside upper echelon FA on Defense, plus 3-4 of our 6 current top 125 types to give our D an injection for his schematic needs. I really see turning our weakness into a strength at Safety (that kid from Washington) Go after a $8-12Mil yearly area Stud FA anchor + 2nd Round selection… letting Ford, Owens, Johnston etc. fight for the depth.

Plugging a couple holes with FA upgrades on the level of those earlier Amos/Turner type veterans helps narrow our focus some.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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The more I research the depth at the RB position in this draft, the more I see a really good crop of RB’s in that late Day3-Priority, undrafted range. There’s also no shortage of heavyweight options IF Dillon isn’t very reasonable. There’s almost nothing at the top (call it Top40) which is strange. However there’s a thick group of RB’s that would've in the past been Jonathon Franklin types that are predicted to go Rounds6-priority undrafted. This ain’t no Dexter Williams 6th Round draft let me tell ya! God bless you Dexter!

I’d stock Hafley with 1 outside upper echelon FA on Defense, plus 3-4 of our 6 current top 125 types to give our D an injection for his schematic needs. I really see turning our weakness into a strength at Safety (that kid from Washington) Go after a $8-12Mil yearly area Stud FA anchor + 2nd Round selection… letting Ford, Owens, Johnston etc. fight for the depth.

Plugging a couple holes with FA upgrades on the level of those earlier Amos/Turner type veterans helps narrow our focus some.
One thing to also look ahead to is the Packers Free Agent situation in 2025. Fortunately, it looks a lot like this year's. Besides Kenny Clark and depending what they do with Love and Jones, there aren't any big names on it.

Josh Myers will be a FA in 2025, but I think they'll look to find his replacement this year in the draft.

 
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One thing to also look ahead to is the Packers Free Agent situation in 2025. Fortunately, it looks a lot like this year's. Besides Kenny Clark and depending what they do with Love and Jones, there aren't any big names on it.

Josh Myers will be a FA in 2025, but I think they'll look to find his replacement this year in the draft.

Gotcha covered from the other thread :) We’re pretty good in position versatility as it’s almost a prerequisite to play 2 positions these days. That OG should have Center experience etc in the meantime
Safety in FA
OG in FA

#25 OT
#44 Safety (Raiders #41+#206)
#58 CB
#88 LB
#91 iDL
#113 Edge (f/Raiders)
#127 RB
#168 TE
#216 OC
#243 RB
#251 PK
 

Thirteen Below

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Savage was in the top 15 safeties last year (400 snap minimum) grade wise per PFF and honestly anyone that thinks he wasn't top 20 at minimum just didn't watch football much...he doesn't need a comeback year, it would be sustaining his play into a second year. I don't think we bring back both he and Nixon, I sense we bring back one of them and Nixon will be cheaper so I'm leaning to Nixon.

Savage is going to make more than we will want to spend on him
I agree pretty much across the board. I've always liked Savage, and I've been very disappointed that he just didn't put it together longterm. He's a good guy, a truly terific teammate, and to me intangibles like that go a long way toward building a championship team. Reminds me of Aaron Kampnan a little bit in that respect; every good team needs people like that. I always pull hard for guys like that to play well enough to stay on the field, so that we can also keep them in the locker room and on the sideline.

I would have liked him back, but the team's decision not to extend his contract and cut the dead cap money looks discouraging. Same with Nixon. I'm still hoping that they don't get the open market offers they may be expecting to get and we can resign them at a reasonable rate, but it doesn't look promising.

But even if we had resigned one or both of them, neither of them was ever going to be the top dawg safety Hafley described here:

"I want a guy who can go from sideline to sideline and take the ball away," said Hafley, "I think that position has to be a guy with high ball production, meaning, he's gotta be able to intercept the ball. He's gotta be a guy that can communicate and he's gotta be a guy that can get guys lined up and make some calls back there—and I'd love a guy that can play man."

Which means that unless we sign someone else's upper-level free agent safety, we need to count on finding that man in the draft. So unless we're quite confident that we're going to come away with DeJean (or at the very least, Nubin or Kinchens) it looks like we're going into the season quite weak at the most critical position of our defense.

I'm reluctant to disagree with you on things like this, because you know more about most of this than I am even aware there is to be known. So maybe there's something I'm missing. But it just seems like a hell of a risk to take in a year where the Super Bowl is a very reasonable goal.
 
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The more I research the depth at the RB position in this draft, the more I see a really good crop of RB’s in that late Day3-Priority, undrafted range. There’s also no shortage of heavyweight options IF Dillon isn’t very reasonable. There’s almost nothing at the top (call it Top40) which is strange. However there’s a thick group of RB’s that would've in the past been Jonathon Franklin types that are predicted to go Rounds6-priority undrafted. This ain’t no Dexter Williams 6th Round draft let me tell ya! God bless you Dexter!
Oddly enough, this very fact is what makes me excited about this year's RB class. :laugh:

Running back is an important need in this year's draft, but we're not desperate for a Barry Sanders. We don't need the best RB on the board; don't even need the 4th, 6th, or 8th best. We just need to come away with a solid RB who's not a reach or a project, and that seems like a good description of the whole posiition group.

There seem to be about 8 - 10 guys who you have about 2 (maybe 3) who are at the top of most people's list oif Top 10, but even so, from what I'm seeing as a fan there's not a major dropoff between the top 2 or 3 and the 8th guy on the list. I'd be happy with any of them. I have no doubt that in reality, some of them do have some definite advantages over the others, or substantial flaws, but I'm in no position to spot those, and I trust our scouting department to figure that out. That's why god created the NFL Combine.

One thing with running backs is every year there seems to be at least one GM who goes temporarily insane and overpays for an RB. I don't think any of these guys are legitimate Day One picks in a draft that's so loaded in other key positions, so it seems very unlikely that any team is going to go 1st Round this year, but then again it always seems unlikely - and in quite a lot of years someone suddenly jumps up and does it anyway. There'll probably be someone who loses their senses and takes one of these RBs in Round 2, but when we get into Round 3 (and maybe even Rd. 4), we should find several to choose from who will probably fit the profile of what we want to add to our offense.





I’d stock Hafley with 1 outside upper echelon FA on Defense, plus 3-4 of our 6 current top 125 types to give our D an injection for his schematic needs. I really see turning our weakness into a strength at Safety (that kid from Washington) Go after a $8-12Mil yearly area Stud FA anchor + 2nd Round selection… letting Ford, Owens, Johnston etc. fight for the depth.
You mean Hicks? He's your top guy? Or are you just thinking he's the best one likely to fall to where we'd be confortable drafting him? Most people seem to rate him below several others; what is it you like about him? I don't have deeply held opinions on most of these guys, and I'm always looking to learn something someone else knows but I don't.
 

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I agree pretty much across the board. I've always liked Savage, and I've been very disappointed that he just didn't put it together longterm. He's a good guy, a truly terific teammate, and to me intangibles like that go a long way toward building a championship team. Reminds me of Aaron Kampnan a little bit in that respect; every good team needs people like that. I always pull hard for guys like that to play well enough to stay on the field, so that we can also keep them in the locker room and on the sideline.

I would have liked him back, but the team's decision not to extend his contract and cut the dead cap money looks discouraging. Same with Nixon. I'm still hoping that they don't get the open market offers they may be expecting to get and we can resign them at a reasonable rate, but it doesn't look promising.

But even if we had resigned one or both of them, neither of them was ever going to be the top dawg safety Hafley described here:



Which means that unless we sign someone else's upper-level free agent safety, we need to count on finding that man in the draft. So unless we're quite confident that we're going to come away with DeJean (or at the very least, Nubin or Kinchens) it looks like we're going into the season quite weak at the most critical position of our defense.

I'm reluctant to disagree with you on things like this, because you know more about most of this than I am even aware there is to be known. So maybe there's something I'm missing. But it just seems like a hell of a risk to take in a year where the Super Bowl is a very reasonable goal.
Why? Savage can't do any of those things that Hafley is looking for. I'm very glad to see that is what Hafley wants in his top of the defense safety. It's something we haven't had in many, many years
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Why? Savage can't do any of those things that Hafley is looking for. I'm very glad to see that is what Hafley wants in his top of the defense safety. It's something we haven't had in many, many years

Agree. I don't think Savage is a terrible Safety and someone will pay him more than they should, I just hope it isn't the Packers that do it. Savage was too inconsistent for my liking. Hafley seems to have a good handle on DB's and the role they need to fill on the defense. I am hoping that we can finally view that Packer secondary as a force and not one that is constantly playing on their heels and just hoping not to give up that big play, but allowing way too much underneath.
 

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Why? Savage can't do any of those things that Hafley is looking for. I'm very glad to see that is what Hafley wants in his top of the defense safety. It's something we haven't had in many, many years
We still need depth. Behind AJJ, we have basically none.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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We still need depth. Behind AJJ, we have basically none.
I think you are talking about the Secondary?

In general, I think this will be the area that Gute will concentrate the most resources on in both Free Agency and the Draft. Right now, the Packers have one "legit" starting DB, Jaire Alexander. Beyond that, they have some promising youth, but need starters for 2024. Stokes, Valentine and Johnson will be competing for starting spots, but in no way should any of them be penciled in as starters.
 
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You mean Hicks? He's your top guy? Or are you just thinking he's the best one likely to fall to where we'd be confortable drafting him?
No. Sorry I meant FA. Kamren Curl. Heck we were paying Savage $8mil fully guaranteed I’d step up and get a true upgrade

Although I wouldn’t mind Jaden Hicks one bit, he’s very scheme versatile.
Heck get both it’s very doable
 
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No. Sorry I meant FA. Kamren Curl. Heck we were paying Savage $8mil fully guaranteed I’d step up and get a true upgrade
Damned good point. If we're paying $8,000,000 for a safety, why not... oh... I dunno... get a safety who's worth $8,000,000?

Although I wouldn’t mind Jaden Hicks one bit, he’s very scheme versatile.
Heck get both it’s very doable
You wouldn't hear any complaints about it from me.

Thre are a couple of ways we could handle the safety issue, but IMO the best solutions involve adding at least 2 solid players, and there are a couple of ways we could go about that. Seems to me the best approach is exactly that - get a good free agent to make sure our ***** are covered, and then an early draft choice. If we get a good UFA, we probably won't draft S on Day One, but I'd be happy with Hicks on Day Two.

In fact, even if we don't hire a free agent, I'd like him on Day Two. I'd prefer him as our second safety; rather have someone like Nubin or Kinchens first. If we're relying entirely on the draft, I would hope we'd swing for the fences.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Add Kevin Byard to the list of Free Agent Safeties that the Packers might consider signing. Kind of a surprise release by the Eagles, the guy can still play, but it saved them ~$13M on their cap.

 

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Add Kevin Byard to the list of Free Agent Safeties that the Packers might consider signing. Kind of a surprise release by the Eagles, the guy can still play, but it saved them ~$13M on their cap.

The more that get cut the better. Flood the market. Maybe we can even get a decent starter the first week of April when the "stupid money" is done being thrown around and it becomes much more of a buyers market.
 

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The more that get cut the better. Flood the market. Maybe we can even get a decent starter the first week of April when the "stupid money" is done being thrown around and it becomes much more of a buyers market.
My fear is that with GB standing at the SB window as it opens that Gute will have FOMO...Fear Of Missing Out on THAT KEY Safety. I think he'll be part of the early frenzy & overpay for a high-end vet to build Hafley's D around.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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The more that get cut the better. Flood the market. Maybe we can even get a decent starter the first week of April when the "stupid money" is done being thrown around and it becomes much more of a buyers market.

My fear is that with GB standing at the SB window as it opens that Gute will have FOMO...Fear Of Missing Out on THAT KEY Safety. I think he'll be part of the early frenzy & overpay for a high-end vet to build Hafley's D around.
I see both of these situations happening and being good and bad. The Packers definitely need 1-2 starting level safeties. I sure as heck don't want to see Gute heading into the draft with that same need. So yes, I think there is a high probability one of the top 5 FA safeties is high on Gutes shopping list. Risking finding one that can immediately start and play well in the draft, might not be wise. I guess if I had my dithers, depending on how the Packers feel about their current group (Johnson, Sapp and Anderson), I would like to see them get 1 high level and 1 mid-level FA Safety, as well as use one of their first 3 picks on another promising rookie.

I haven't really broken down the FA's or the draft stock of safeties, but as far as free agents go, there are some big names on the list.


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There’s several ways to handle our hole at Safety. The good news (for me anyway) is that it won’t take much to get => play than Darnell imo. So there’s that. Imo we got $4mil in effort/production $8mil in pay

Ideally we go get 1 Higher echelon Safety that is 90% chance an upgrade over Darnell. That takes immense pressure off because we do have a few candidates we could resign one on a cheaper deal. Then that takes some pressure off this draft of having to use a Top selection there.

Put an established, upper-echelon, Veteran + and the best option between #88,#91 or #127 paired back there and it’s 75% likely we’re already improved. Again our Safety play has been pedestrian at best for a couple seasons and it’s almost like we’ve become complacent with it.

There’s also another way to help your DB room. Add another high end iDL or Edge who has regular success disrupting the Pocket. Heck do both.. sign a Vet DL + draft at DE/Edge inside that top #41, where we have a decent shot of gaining another difference maker (ala Chris Braswell)
 
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I'm a little surprised that nobody's mentioned safety Jeremy Chinn. Highly talented athlete, great college career; Panthers traded up in the 2nd to get him, and he was a rookie of the year candidate in 2020. Tailed off a bit in 21, then just went straight to sucking in 22 and 23. The general consensus in Charlotte was the team had no clue how to use him, and he never fit whatever scheme they were trying to run. At any rate, he's done there, and might be someone who could benefit a lot from a change in scene and a better organization.

Trouble is, part of the reason the Panthers couldn't figure out how to use him is probably because he's a tweener. At 220 lbs, he's awfully light for an NFL linebacker, and he doesn't have the coverage skills you look for in a free safety.

But he's a powerful, aggressive tackler who might make a good drop-down safety in Hafley's single-high system. I read somewhere (can't find it now) that in his stellar rookie season, he played 99% of the defensive snaps and 80% of those were in the box, and in his second-best year, 70%. Since then (IIRC), his two lousy years saw him playing only about half the snaps in the box. Sounds like there's a role he's really good at, and it's one that we could use.

We could probably get him pretty cheap, too. A one-year "prove it" for $3-4M, maybe?

What do y'all think?

 
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I'm a little surprised that nobody's mentioned safety Jeremy Chinn. Highly talented athlete, great college career; Panthers traded up in the 2nd to get him, and he was a rookie of the year candidate in 2020. Tailed off a bit in 21, then just went straight to sucking in 22 and 23. The general consensus in Charlotte was the team had no clue how to use him, and he never fit whatever scheme they were trying to run. At any rate, he's done there, and might be someone who could benefit a lot from a change in scene and a better organization.

Trouble is, part of the reason the Panthers couldn't figure out how to use him is probably because he's a tweener. At 220 lbs, he's awfully light for an NFL linebacker, and he doesn't have the coverage skills you look for in a free safety.

But he's a powerful, aggressive tackler who might make a good drop-down safety in Hafley's single-high system. I read somewhere (can't find it now) that in his stellar rookie season, he played 99% of the defensive snaps and 80% of those were in the box, and in his second-best year, 70%. Since then (IIRC), his two lousy years saw him playing only about half the snaps in the box. Sounds like there's a role he's really good at, and it's one that we could use.

We could probably get him pretty cheap, too. A one-year "prove it" for $3-4M, maybe?

What do y'all think?

Possibly yes. I’m ok with anything we think is a cost effective, designed role. In some ways Savage is similar in that when he’s asked to perform a more downhill “attacking” role he plays at least B grade. When asked to play a high shell type concept he’s literally afraid to tackle. I’m ok with Savage but no way does he stay for the ~$3.5Mil type $$$ I’d consider his worth $$

If we think we can get an older veteran on a cheaper $2-3mil plus incentives “prove it” deal fine. Although I don’t want that to be our primary plan. We need a Stud or as close as we can get to the Charles Woodson definitive “leader” role imo. Charles was the catalyst of our SB Defense (even though he missed out with a collar bone) and we are similar in talent but without a true leader from the players side. We’ve got lots of supporting actors but lack leadership (from a trusted Player)

I sincerely believe this D is a couple of upfrades from 2023 away from a true SB contender (along with getting better usage of our D Roster)
I wouldn’t sell us short trying to look for crumbs (no disrespect to Chinn) from the table. I’m thinking a move that reinvigorates all of us. Where we get excited type move.
 
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If we think we can get an older veteran on a cheaper $2-3mil plus incentives “prove it” deal fine. Although I don’t want that to be our primary plan. We need a Stud or as close as we can get to the Charles Woodson definitive “leader” role imo. Charles was the catalyst of our SB Defense (even though he missed out with a collar bone) and we are similar in talent but without a true leader from the players side. We’ve got lots of supporting actors but lack leadership (from a trusted Player)
I reckon that's the flip side of being the youngest team in the league since 1992. And one more reason we really, really need to bring in a good free agent or two this year. Veteran leadership is one problem you can not possibly fix in the draft. Time to bring a couple of big brothers into the family to take the kids under their wings.


I wouldn’t sell us short trying to look for crumbs (no disrespect to Chinn) from the table. I’m thinking a move that reinvigorates all of us. Where we get excited type move.
One way to look at it (IMO) is our safety problem is actually two problems - we don't have a strong safety capable of shutting down the run, and we don't have a coverage safety to control the passing game. These actually are two similar but separate problems, and they both have to be solved separately. Can't be solved with just one player; we need two.

As a lot of us have said, there are a number of ways to solve these problems. It seems like the most likely approach would be to get one of the safeties in free agency, and the other in the draft. This is such a weak safety class that it seems like we'd be taking a huge risk relying on the draft for both of them. I don't know; there are so many possible ways for it to work out, there's hardly any point in discussing every single one... but it does seem like Chinn would be a very good solution to the "strong safety" half of the problem.

Over the last couple of days, I've dropped in on several Panther message boards and asked their fans about Chinn. 2 or 3 guys warned that he's a tweener, hybrid between safety and linebacker, and has to be used just right to get the most out of him... but the vast majority of fans (well over 90%) have nothing but good things to say about him. The consensus is that when their staff used him properly, he was a pro bowl caliber player, but when you ask him to cover like a corner he's barely average - if that. They say he's an incredible athlete (which Gute loves), very good ball skills, and an absolute thumper in the box. Just can not cover wideouts.

They love him, wish the team knew how to use them, and wish him well, but they're glad he may get a chance with a better team. Lot of them say they hope he winds up with Green Bay so he can get a ring or two. Seems to me you can't ask for better references than that. Might be a steal for a $3-4 million "prove it" deal. I'm excited about the guy.
 

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