2024 Salary Cap as related to Free Agency

Pokerbrat2000

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Lol, New Orleans has officially hooked their wagon to Derek Carr. Good luck with that!
I think they hitched that wagon to Carr last season when they gave him a 4 year, $150M contract, $100M guaranteed and then structured it so that it would only count as $7.2 M against the Cap in 2023. They doubled down on that philosophy last week by restructuring it so that it would only be a $12.668 M cap hit in 2024. The net result of all this number shifting is that unless they restructure it again, Carr will be a $51.48 M cap hit in 2025 and a $61.458 M in 2026. Both seasons, his dead cap will be far less than his actual cap hit, making him tradeable or even cutable.

This isn't much different than what the Packers did with Rodgers. I think the 2022 season was an awakening for Gute, Ball and Murphy. When 1 player is eating up most of the cap and only playing a bit above average, you aren't going to go far. I hope they remember that when they structure Love's new deal.
 
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I think they hitched that wagon to Carr last season when they gave him a 4 year, $150M contract, $100M guaranteed and then structured it so that it would only count as $7.2 M against the Cap in 2023. They doubled down on that philosophy last week by restructuring it so that it would only be a $12.668 M cap hit in 2024. The net result of all this number shifting is that unless they restructure it again, Carr will be a $51.48 M cap hit in 2025 and a $61.458 M in 2026. Both seasons, his dead cap will be far less than his actual cap hit, making him tradeable or even cutable.

This isn't much different than what the Packers did with Rodgers. I think the 2022 season was an awakening for Gute, Ball and Murphy. When 1 player is eating up most of the cap and only playing a bit above average, you aren't going to go far. I hope they remember that when they structure Love's new deal.
Yes. We’ve seen this countless times and another notable was for an injury riddled player such as “Z Smith” and now Bak. The worse case scenario is this $ combined with a player who can’t produce.
 
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Just going to mention I’ve seen some articles pointing to how bad our Cap situation is, but it’s surface level stuff

Our top 51 look like this by year in comparison to the league. Mostly what really matters is “comparison to peers” imo.

2024: 24th ($251M)
2025: 20th ($103M)
2026: 24th ($142M)
2027: 18th ($42M)

The second point is that we have just 9 players over $3Mil yearly on our salary cap. The #1 is Bakhtiari and he’s gone. That puts us immediately at 17-18th this season($230Mil) and we haven’t even discussed potential restructured for less $$, such as A Jones. All teams have that though, so I’m trying to compare apples and leave those small ones alone. The point is, all teams can NOT save $21Mil instantly and never lose an ounce of production (Bak). I noticed these experts conveniently missed that in almost hopes of bringing unfounded fear into the equation.

The third point is that time value diminishes the relative impact of Cap from a % standpoint. By 2026 our current “24th most cap leaguewide” will then be just a fraction of the total Cap allowance. So yes, co parable it’s still 24th but the gross $margin$ is waning by year. The 2026 ($141M) and the committed $$ against what may be $300Mil Cap ceiling is not nearly as significant as the $251M on $255mil commitment today. Let’s just say it holds less weight

Now the issue of extending Jordan is a valid point they make. However we’re not the only ones making QB decisions between 2025-2027 AND I’d rather have the Cap problem of signing what might be a Top 10 QB to a long extension. I’ll take that problem 1 on 1 any day and twice Sunday. Nothing great happens to saving team cap (except on rare exception) without possession great level QB play. There will absolutely be a handful of teams in the NFC with better cap because of a QB rookie deal. But very few will be able to argue BOTH possessing as good or better a QB AND a significantly better Cap situation.

We’ll be fine going out and grabbing a good FA or 2 if the scenario allows, plus keeping several key, incumbent FA players.
 
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PikeBadger

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True, but I have difficulty comparing Derek Carr to Aaron Rodgers.

Meant to respond to Pokerbrat.
 

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Restructured Gary’s contract freeing up 4.7 or so in cap space. Odd move for a rather small piece…my hunch is this and the message Bakh put on twitter is a sign we won’t be releasing Bakh and they’re gonna get creative in cutting as much of that cut move would have done + Bakh is gonna do a new contract.

Now that prediction I have only 50/50 confidence in tho lol
 
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Restructured Gary’s contract freeing up 4.7 or so in cap space. Odd move for a rather small piece…my hunch is this and the message Bakh put on twitter is a sign we won’t be releasing Bakh and they’re gonna get creative in cutting as much of that cut move would have done + Bakh is gonna do a new contract.

Now that prediction I have only 50/50 confidence in tho lol
Exactly. After catching up on some trinkets in the media, I was just thinking that very same thing.
Early on I was thinking adding up to ~$5Mil additional guaranteed for him along with several $Mil in total per game (reg/post) games played. One last 1yr prove it deal (or contract out). While I fully understand he’s very risky.. we could be paying that (or more) in an injury settlement.

Then factor in he is a good dude. From everything I’ve seen he loves this team. He also has to be motivated after watching Jordan, it’s hard not to be. I understand the hesitation by fans though also. Just keep his guaranteed low.
 
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I just can’t see them paying that $9M to find out if he’s sound. Lets say they COULD somehow convert his $19M for this year to $24M over 2 years. I don’t see it happening. Better places for that $12M/year.
 

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I just can’t see them paying that $9M to find out if he’s sound. Lets say they COULD somehow convert his $19M for this year to $24M over 2 years. I don’t see it happening. Better places for that $12M/year.

There is easily a world where an extension could make his hit this year be around 25M...costing us an additional 6M roughly over his dead cap hit if we cut him...would take an extension in all likelihood if your Bakh, but easily could be done and still have an out after this year or he proves he's healthy and you could see him hold down LT for Love a couple years.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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True, but I have difficulty comparing Derek Carr to Aaron Rodgers.

Meant to respond to Pokerbrat.
I wasn't comparing the players, more than I was comparing how the Packers and Saints approached their contracts in regards to the cap.
 

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There is easily a world where an extension could make his hit this year be around 25M...costing us an additional 6M roughly over his dead cap hit if we cut him...would take an extension in all likelihood if your Bakh, but easily could be done and still have an out after this year or he proves he's healthy and you could see him hold down LT for Love a couple years.
Or he could risk being out of a job totally with no salary at all living off his bonus money and wait for some team to call. Bakhtiari has options, so do the Packers after seeing the way Walker performed in the back half of the season. I don't think the Packers are at a point that they need to extend Bakhtiari or offer up any more bonuses. Restructure or release are essentially the options for Bakhtiari in Green Bay imo.
 

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How do you restructure the last year of a deal? Green Bay HAS to pony up $9Mil by Friday to keep him on their roster. If he’s been at ALL intelligent with his money he’s not worried about that. Might depend on how butt hurt he is about GB pulling out of the $9M roster bonus due Saturday. Only other place I can see him going after his release is the Jets IF A-rod can make that happen.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Or he could risk being out of a job totally with no salary at all living off his bonus money and wait for some team to call. Bakhtiari has options, so do the Packers after seeing the way Walker performed in the back half of the season. I don't think the Packers are at a point that they need to extend Bakhtiari or offer up any more bonuses. Restructure or release are essentially the options for Bakhtiari in Green Bay imo.
I doubt unemployment is even on Bahk's "1000 concerns" list. Unless of course he spent all his money on beer and hair conditioner.

I don't have a problem with the Packers keeping Bahk, if they were 100% sure that the only thing keeping him off the field in 2024 is a players strike or a completely unrelated injury. The problem with that, they have to commit $9.5M to him on 3/15/24, which is his guaranteed roster bonus for being on the team as of that date. If that wasn't on the table, I think they keep him, see how he is progressing and either trade, release or roster him before Sept. Eventually, he would also collect a $700K workout bonus, if he fulfilled the obligations of that.

Now if he is on the Packer roster in Sept. that will cost the Packers another $10.7M + about a $30K Per Game Active Bonus.

Really it boils down to whether the Packers think Bahk is worth $21M this year, a decision they will have to make in about 2 weeks. If he isn't or if they don't know whether he will be, then if they can't find a trade partner, cut him loose.
 

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Ahhhhh I thought the roster bonus was March 1st. 15th gives more time. The other issue(s) I’m not understanding are the dead cap hits we take for Jones, Savage, Campbell. If we take that hit anyway how does it save us any money in 2024? To me it’s not so much the total cap hit - it’s about the cap hit you can actually CHANGE by letting them go (or extending them). I’m unclear exactly how that works with those 3 guys.
 

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I doubt unemployment is even on Bahk's "1000 concerns" list. Unless of course he spent all his money on beer and hair conditioner.

I don't have a problem with the Packers keeping Bahk, if they were 100% sure that the only thing keeping him off the field in 2024 is a players strike or a completely unrelated injury. The problem with that, they have to commit $9.5M to him on 3/15/24, which is his guaranteed roster bonus for being on the team as of that date. If that wasn't on the table, I think they keep him, see how he is progressing and either trade, release or roster him before Sept. Eventually, he would also collect a $700K workout bonus, if he fulfilled the obligations of that.

Now if he is on the Packer roster in Sept. that will cost the Packers another $10.7M + about a $30K Per Game Active Bonus.

Really it boils down to whether the Packers think Bahk is worth $21M this year, a decision they will have to make in about 2 weeks. If he isn't or if they don't know whether he will be, then if they can't find a trade partner, cut him loose.
He's a long way removed from his last all-pro season. I'm not sure other teams would be willing to risk much financially given his injury track. If the Packers release him, I don't think he commands much of a salary until he proves himself again.
 

Thirteen Below

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They need to decide before the 15th if they are going to be players in the initial wave of FA signings. If it is the 15th, by the 10th is more likely.
If they're smart, they'll have the framework of their free agent plan in place long, long before the 10th.

The official free agency signing period begins on 3/13, and clubs can officially begin negotiating with FAs on the 11th - the "legal tampering period". But the reality is, the free agent negotiations will begin this week at the combine - the "illegal tampering period". This is when agents and GMs smile and wink at one another, and the agents get a sense of who might be interested in their clients while the GMs get a sense of how badly some FAs want to move and what the price may be. By the time the legal negotiations actually begin on the 11th, most teams have idenitified their top FA targets and have some numbers in mind. In some cases, I think it's probable that there's been a lot more discussed than those superficial details, but it's unlikely anyone is ever going to admit to it.

The 13th is going to be a very exciting day, because we may begin to see already on that day how aggressive a run the Packers are going to make this year.

Gute, Murphy, and Lafleur have spent I'd say the last 2 years focused on building a team ready to take advantage of a Super Bowl window beginning in probably 2025, and ready for at least a brief playoff run in 2024. But I strongly believe they've dranatically accelerated that timeline. Gute hitting a grand slam in the 2023 draft, and the incredible growth Love and the rest of the team showed when they exploded in November, probably changed everything. I think the second half of the 2023 season moved the plan forward a full year, and that those 3 months basically represent the "2024" part of the plan. I think the triumverate (Murphy, Gutekunst, and Lafleur) have decided that our Lombardi window is right now - that we're already in it, and we need to take maximum advantage.

If that's the case, then I think early UFA decisions and trades will be our first indicator. Green Bay has not been a big player in free agency, and have focused more on drafting and devleopment than trading for players that other teams have developed. If Gutekunst breaks that pattern early on with trades or signings that are more aggressive than what we're used to seeing, I think it will be our confirnation that they do think the hole is there right now, and they're going to hit it hard, put the pedal to the metal, and go all in. If they think (for example) that there's a Charles Woodson safety out there who may be the one piece we need to get us the rest of the way, we may see a suprise signing early on.

So some early FA signings or significant trades could mean we're in for a hell of a ride this season.

That's my deep thought of the day, anyway. As always, I'm curious if anyone agrees or disagrees. Always eager to learn where I might have hold of the wrong end of something.
 
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Pokerbrat2000

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He's a long way removed from his last all-pro season. I'm not sure other teams would be willing to risk much financially given his injury track. If the Packers release him, I don't think he commands much of a salary until he proves himself again.
I fully agree. I think he has had 5 surgical procedures since he signed his new contract in 2020. He is still a few months from "recovery" from his last procedure. He's played in 13 games in the last 3 seasons and has barely practiced during that time. Any team that would agree to a trade for him, would be picking up the final year of his contract, which would call for them paying him $21,499,363. That isn't happening, not even for a 7th round pick.

My hunch is that he and Aaron have already figured things out, he is waiting to be cut and will sign with the Jets. He will be willing to take a minimal contract, packed with all sorts of playing incentives and be reunited with his buddy to finish both of their NFL careers in NY.
 

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I fully agree. I think he has had 5 surgical procedures since he signed his new contract in 2020. He is still a few months from "recovery" from his last procedure. He's played in 13 games in the last 3 seasons and has barely practiced during that time. Any team that would agree to a trade for him, would be picking up the final year of his contract, which would call for them paying him $21,499,363. That isn't happening, not even for a 7th round pick.

My hunch is that he and Aaron have already figured things out, he is waiting to be cut and will sign with the Jets. He will be willing to take a minimal contract, packed with all sorts of playing incentives and be reunited with his buddy to finish both of their NFL careers in NY.

Here's the crazy thing, Pass Blocking grades:

Week 1 2023 - 78.3 overall grade / 89.9 PassBlk (highest passblk grade on team)

2022 (numerous of these were best on team each week)
Week 3 - 78.6
Week 4 - 61.6
Week 5 - 80.0
Week 6 - 89.0
Week 8 - 82.5
Week 9 - 70.1
Week 10 - 88.4
Week 11 - 77.8
Week 12 - 80.4
Week 17 - 83.4
Week 18 - 80.2

2021 Week 18 - 72.7


Folks that isn't just good, great or excellent. Dude has been an all pro.....availability is his only issue. His play has not dropped throughout all this.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Here's the crazy thing, Pass Blocking grades:

Week 1 2023 - 78.3 overall grade / 89.9 PassBlk (highest passblk grade on team)

2022 (numerous of these were best on team each week)
Week 3 - 78.6
Week 4 - 61.6
Week 5 - 80.0
Week 6 - 89.0
Week 8 - 82.5
Week 9 - 70.1
Week 10 - 88.4
Week 11 - 77.8
Week 12 - 80.4
Week 17 - 83.4
Week 18 - 80.2

2021 Week 18 - 72.7


Folks that isn't just good, great or excellent. Dude has been an all pro.....availability is his only issue. His play has not dropped throughout all this.
I don't think many of us, if any, are questioning Bahk's abilities when fully healthy, at least I'm not. I just can't behind committing more money ($21.5M) to see if he can play and stay on the field. From what I have read, he is a few months away from being "recovered", the Packers need to make this decision in the next 2 weeks.

The only way I want to see him in Green Bay is if he agrees to tearing up his current contract and plays on a 2 year, vet minimum, fully incentive based deal. The Packers would still be on the hook for $19M+ of his dead cap money, but at least a new deal would allow them to stretch that out over another season and greatly reduce the risk of him not getting back on the field.

If there was ever a player and a time that someone owes his team a "friendly team deal", this is it.
 

Schultz

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If they're smart, they'll have the framework of their free agent plan in place long, long before the 10th.

The official free agency signing period begins on 3/13, and clubs can officially begin negotiating with FAs on the 11th - the "legal tampering period". But the reality is, the free agent negotiations will begin this week at the combine - the "illegal tampering period". This is when agents and GMs smile and wink at one another, and the agents get a sense of who might be interested in their clients while the GMs get a sense of how badly some FAs want to move and what the price may be. By the time the legal negotiations actually begin on the 11th, most teams have idenitified their top FA targets and have some numbers in mind. In some cases, I think it's probable that there's been a lot more discussed than those superficial details, but it's unlikely anyone is ever going to admit to it.

The 13th is going to be a very exciting day, because we may begin to see already on that day how aggressive a run the Packers are going to make this year.

Gute, Murphy, and Lafleur have spent I'd say the last 2 years focused on building a team ready to take advantage of a Super Bowl window beginning in probably 2025, and ready for at least a brief playoff run in 2024. But I strongly believe they've dranatically accelerated that timeline. Gute hitting a grand slam in the 2023 draft, and the incredible growth Love and the rest of the team showed when they exploded in November, probably changed everything. I think the second half of the 2023 season moved the plan forward a full year, and that those 3 months basically represent the "2024" part of the plan. I think the triumverate (Murphy, Gutekunst, and Lafleur) have decided that our Lombardi window is right now - that we're already in it, and we need to take maximum advantage.

If that's the case, then I think early UFA decisions and trades will be our first indicator. Green Bay has not been a big player in free agency, and have focused more on drafting and devleopment than trading for players that other teams have developed. If Gutekunst breaks that pattern early on with trades or signings that are more aggressive than what we're used to seeing, I think it will be our confirnation that they do think the hole is there right now, and they're going to hit it hard, put the pedal to the metal, and go all in. If they think (for example) that there's a Charles Woodson safety out there who may be the one piece we need to get us the rest of the way, we may see a suprise signing early on.

So some early FA signings or significant trades could mean we're in for a hell of a ride this season.

That's my deep thought of the day, anyway. As always, I'm curious if anyone agrees or disagrees. Always eager to learn where I might have hold of the wrong end of something.
Let me start by saying I agree with you. Your post has got me thinking a bit. This would be a major change in philosophy. When the Pack finished with consecutive 13 win seasons, one might think that was a SB window. Yet, they did not make any splash trades or significant FA signings. They did not draft for need, they stayed with BPA. I have to wonder, what makes this time different? Does Gute have the Jerry Krause syndrome? "Players don't win championships, organizations do". Is Jordan Love, Gute's Tony Kukoc and Aaron Rodgers his Michael Jordan? Is the difference now that he can win the SB with his guy and not that Diva, spoiled brat that disrespected him? It just makes me wonder a bit.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Let me start by saying I agree with you. Your post has got me thinking a bit. This would be a major change in philosophy. When the Pack finished with consecutive 13 win seasons, one might think that was a SB window. Yet, they did not make any splash trades or significant FA signings. They did not draft for need, they stayed with BPA. I have to wonder, what makes this time different? Does Gute have the Jerry Krause syndrome? "Players don't win championships, organizations do". Is Jordan Love, Gute's Tony Kukoc and Aaron Rodgers his Michael Jordan? Is the difference now that he can win the SB with his guy and not that Diva, spoiled brat that disrespected him? It just makes me wonder a bit.
I think you answered your own question with "Pack finished with consecutive 13 win seasons" and by doing so, they didn't see the need to go crazy in Free Agency or trades. Basically, they had a solid team and could concentrate on slight tweaks and drafting for the future and some for the present.

What they have now is a young team, that appears to be on a quick development path, created by a lot of young players, to being a very solid team. However, they lack in a few key starting positions, Safety, CB and possibly ILB. They shouldn't try and fill the holes in the secondary with rookies, no matter how high they are drafted.

The other thing going on is/was their cap situation. In 2021, 22, and 23, they were a team headed for cap-tastrophy. They saw it, knew they couldn't lock up any new money in high end free agents or starters obtained in trades. So they sat on their 13 win roster, grabbed some low end FA bargains, drafted for the future and got cap healthy.

So far, it looks like their plan took wings and is working. The team is young, developing and they are getting cap healthy. Time to spend some money and plug the holes with 1-2 high level starting Free agents.
 

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If they're smart, they'll have the framework of their free agent plan in place long, long before the 10th.

The official free agency signing period begins on 3/13, and clubs can officially begin negotiating with FAs on the 11th - the "legal tampering period". But the reality is, the free agent negotiations will begin this week at the combine - the "illegal tampering period". This is when agents and GMs smile and wink at one another, and the agents get a sense of who might be interested in their clients while the GMs get a sense of how badly some FAs want to move and what the price may be. By the time the legal negotiations actually begin on the 11th, most teams have idenitified their top FA targets and have some numbers in mind. In some cases, I think it's probable that there's been a lot more discussed than those superficial details, but it's unlikely anyone is ever going to admit to it.

The 13th is going to be a very exciting day, because we may begin to see already on that day how aggressive a run the Packers are going to make this year.

Gute, Murphy, and Lafleur have spent I'd say the last 2 years focused on building a team ready to take advantage of a Super Bowl window beginning in probably 2025, and ready for at least a brief playoff run in 2024. But I strongly believe they've dranatically accelerated that timeline. Gute hitting a grand slam in the 2023 draft, and the incredible growth Love and the rest of the team showed when they exploded in November, probably changed everything. I think the second half of the 2023 season moved the plan forward a full year, and that those 3 months basically represent the "2024" part of the plan. I think the triumverate (Murphy, Gutekunst, and Lafleur) have decided that our Lombardi window is right now - that we're already in it, and we need to take maximum advantage.

If that's the case, then I think early UFA decisions and trades will be our first indicator. Green Bay has not been a big player in free agency, and have focused more on drafting and devleopment than trading for players that other teams have developed. If Gutekunst breaks that pattern early on with trades or signings that are more aggressive than what we're used to seeing, I think it will be our confirnation that they do think the hole is there right now, and they're going to hit it hard, put the pedal to the metal, and go all in. If they think (for example) that there's a Charles Woodson safety out there who may be the one piece we need to get us the rest of the way, we may see a suprise signing early on.

So some early FA signings or significant trades could mean we're in for a hell of a ride this season.

That's my deep thought of the day, anyway. As always, I'm curious if anyone agrees or disagrees. Always eager to learn where I might have hold of the wrong end of something.
I'm inclined to agree that they window for getting to the big one has been moved up to this coming season, given the success they've had from the last two drafts. The key now is to bring in an experienced safety, who can act as a leader on the field, and dig deep in the draft, to bring in an additional safety who will be able to step in and be productive, and additional help at other defensive positions. Also, getting an interior offensive lineman, and try to swing a pick for a decent RB who can eat up some yardage is important.

The three areas I consider in good shape is TE, and WR, which two years ago at this time was a total disaster.

Despite what people think, the Packers do have enough wiggle room within the cap, to get that DB who can, as you referred to, be another Woodson. We need that to solidify the defense.

I think people are going to be pleasantly surprised at how well our CBs are going to do in the new defensive schemes. They're going to spend a lot less time in zone coverage, and doing some press man at the LOS. Also, having two end pieces at LB means that you can swap back and forth, as you see fit, or how the offense dictates, as to which man is down. Van Ness and Gary both are more than capable of doing both. It makes me wonder if they might, just might, move Smith to an ILB spot, and flip flop him, to facilitate him being out OLB on the strong side? Just curious as to how Hafely is going to deploy his troops.

On the trade scene, I don't think the Packers are going to do much of that to be honest. I think they're going to enjoy have those 3 day one picks.
 

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I'd be fine with the Packers spending some money on 2 FA's to make their secondary very Fuller. Go after Jordan and Kendall Fuller. I don't think Jordan would break the bank, but give the Packers a solid vet Safety, that they could team with a 1st or 2nd round rookie. Kendall and Jaire, could provide the Packers with 2 very solid bookend CB's. Kendall was a Captain during his 4 years in Washington, veteran leadership on the Packer defense would be welcomed. I also don't think the Packers have to break the bank on Kendall, maybe a 3 year $42M contract, with $12M guaranteed.
 

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I don't think many of us, if any, are questioning Bahk's abilities when fully healthy, at least I'm not. I just can't behind committing more money ($21.5M) to see if he can play and stay on the field. From what I have read, he is a few months away from being "recovered", the Packers need to make this decision in the next 2 weeks.

The only way I want to see him in Green Bay is if he agrees to tearing up his current contract and plays on a 2 year, vet minimum, fully incentive based deal. The Packers would still be on the hook for $19M+ of his dead cap money, but at least a new deal would allow them to stretch that out over another season and greatly reduce the risk of him not getting back on the field.

If there was ever a player and a time that someone owes his team a "friendly team deal", this is it.

The bolded part I'm sorry is just lunacy...IF he is healthy and able to play he has proven is more likely to play all pro level than below average....placing a contract so crazy low on the books but throwing that many incentives can WRECK cap wise the way those are applied to the years depending.

I agree a rip up of existing is necessary...but to go that crazy is just unfair to a dude who on one healthy leg still managed to put forth out of 13 games like 12 of our best pass blocking games by any lineman in those. I'd love to see him willing to essentially make his say cap hit this year be 25M or less (19M is dead money anyways) and no guaranteed (or very little) money in 2025 or little (maybe a strong roster bonus)...because if he is healthy we won't want him to leave.
 

tynimiller

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With the recent plans of Gute being load up positions with a plethora of young motivated (albeit raw) guys and let the hunger drive the growth....he eluded they could do something similar at Safety even....

Gute is many things but a man cornered into a thought is not one of them, and I think we may be heading for a double safety, double LB in the first two days type draft or close to that...stock up on motivated hungry youth and see if you can hit again, cuz you've now got numerous other spots set with now experienced youth that have proven capable.
 

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