2024 Salary Cap as related to Free Agency

Thirteen Below

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Personally, I’d like to retain him as long as he’s reasonable. I’m thinking $3-4Mil yearly. Probably not going to lose him over $250k etc though. The last thing we need is to go back into the dark ages at Return guy.

The good news is, with Barry gone we'll be returning a hell of a lot fewer kickoffs.

But then again, a lot more punts, so maybe they just cancel out.
 

sschind

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If you were happy with starting every drive at the 25 you could basically ignore the kick return position and just put your surest handed guy back there and have him fair catch every kick. You could put your #1 WR back there and not really risk injury. That way you could simply get the best position player at whatever position you need. You wouldn't have to have a guy who is maybe a slight liability at say your 5th DB just because he was the best KR in the league.

I'd rather have a returner try to return kicks and only get it to the 20 rather than fair catch every one just because of the chance it gives to break one. Not return every one of course, they need to be smart about it.
 

Pkrjones

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I'd rather have a returner try to return kicks and only get it to the 20 rather than fair catch every one just because of the chance it gives to break one. Not return every one of course, they need to be smart about it.
Nfl kickoffs returned for touchdowns:
2023 - 4
2022 - 2
2021 - 2
2020 - 7
2019 - 7
2018 - 5
2017 - 7
2016 - 7
2015 - 2
2014 - 6
2013 - 2
2012 - 2
2011 - 9
Last Packer KO TD was Cobb in 2011... imho I'd go the fair catch route. The odds aren't in our favor of a TD anytime soon. Nixon was a good KO returner, but not worth spending $4mil/yr on.
 
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If you were happy with starting every drive at the 25 you could basically ignore the kick return position and just put your surest handed guy back there and have him fair catch every kick. You could put your #1 WR back there and not really risk injury. That way you could simply get the best position player at whatever position you need. You wouldn't have to have a guy who is maybe a slight liability at say your 5th DB just because he was the best KR in the league.

I'd rather have a returner try to return kicks and only get it to the 20 rather than fair catch every one just because of the chance it gives to break one. Not return every one of course, they need to be smart about it.

According to Lafleur, that's exactly why he likes Nixon back there - he wants him to feel the green light every time there's even a chance at a return, because every now and then, he might bust one. And every single kick, that's inside the other team's heads, because they'll be wondering if this one is going to be the one. The coverage team can't ever take it for granted, can't ever just phone it in; you're forcing them to be perfect every sigle time. If they make one mistake, Nixon is a threat to exploit it.
 

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Nfl kickoffs returned for touchdowns: 2023 - 4 2022 - 2 2021 - 2 2020 - 7 2019 - 7 2018 - 5 2017 - 7 2016 - 7 2015 - 2 2014 - 6 2013 - 2 2012 - 2 2011 - 9 Last Packer KO TD was Cobb in 2011... imho I'd go the fair catch route. The odds aren't in our favor of a TD anytime soon. Nixon was a good KO returner, but not worth spending $4mil/yr on.

Didn't Nixon return one against the vikings at the end of the 2022 season?
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Nfl kickoffs returned for touchdowns: 2023 - 4 2022 - 2 2021 - 2 2020 - 7 2019 - 7 2018 - 5 2017 - 7 2016 - 7 2015 - 2 2014 - 6 2013 - 2 2012 - 2 2011 - 9 Last Packer KO TD was Cobb in 2011... imho I'd go the fair catch route. The odds aren't in our favor of a TD anytime soon. Nixon was a good KO returner, but not worth spending $4mil/yr on.

Didn't Nixon return one against the vikings at the end of the 2022 season?

Nixon doesn't have to return kickoffs for TD's to be considered successful. He just needs to consistently make good decisions, not fumble and get it past the 25 yd. line. Hes pretty good at all 3 things.

Yes, he returned one 105 yards in 2022 against the Queens. (Video below).

While he didn't run any back for TD's in 2023, he did have a 51 yarder to open the 2nd half against the Rams.


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Pkrjones

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Nfl kickoffs returned for touchdowns: 2023 - 4 2022 - 2 2021 - 2 2020 - 7 2019 - 7 2018 - 5 2017 - 7 2016 - 7 2015 - 2 2014 - 6 2013 - 2 2012 - 2 2011 - 9 Last Packer KO TD was Cobb in 2011... imho I'd go the fair catch route. The odds aren't in our favor of a TD anytime soon. Nixon was a good KO returner, but not worth spending $4mil/yr on.

Didn't Nixon return one against the vikings at the end of the 2022 season?
I went by these stats, sorry if in error. Damn, I was AT thatVikes game with Nixon running straight at me (N end zone seat) & I forgot about it. :(
 

Pokerbrat2000

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I went by these stats, sorry if in error. Damn, I was AT thatVikes game with Nixon running straight at me (N end zone seat) & I forgot about it. :(
Those are just career leaders.

Again, I don't think you can solely grade a returner on TD's. Better to look at average, fumbles and of course, quality of the KO return unit.
 

Thirteen Below

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Those are just career leaders.

Again, I don't think you can solely grade a returner on TD's. Better to look at average, fumbles and of course, quality of the KO return unit.

Yeah, TDs make the highlight reels and fire up the "ooohs!" and "ahhs!", but average field position is (IMO) much more important - just an extra 5-8 yards starting field position on a substantial number of drives is more important tactically. Which honestly I'm not sure Nixon achieved this season (think he fell a little short), but I believe he did give us that in 22. Frequently got us out to somewhere in the 30s, sometimes better.

But there's also an intangible factor at work. You won't see this on any stat sheet, but Lafleur has said many times that he loves the way Nixon gets his teammates fired up on the sideline between possessions while waiting to get back out on the field. They're just electrified, can't wait to see what he's going to do with this one.

Other Packers talk about how exciting it is to see him scanning the field for his crease, and the way he cuts and hits it so smoothly.... every Packer on the sideline is maximum pumped to watch Nixon explode upfield, and when the whistle blows and the ball is being spotted, they're running out on the field fired up because one of their teammates just made a big play before we actually even got the ball back. His teammates love the guy, for how hard he works to put them in a position to succeed and paying the price every time. Returning kicks is just a brutal way to make a living.

It's obvious Lafleur thinks very, very highly of Nixon, and thinks he adds a lot to the team on many levels. I think Matt really likes having Nixon on the team, and wants him back if the math works.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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But there's also an intangible factor at work.
Agree

Intangibles exist for every player, some good, some bad. Traits that we as fans often don't know about or are possibly even misinformed about. I will list the ones I can think of, jump in and add as many as you can thing of.

- Practices: How does a player practice?

- Coachable: Does this player listen and learn from coaches?

- Game Film: How much effort does a player put into watching and learning?

- Personality: What kind of personality does the player have and how does that fit or not fit with others? What is his attitude like and how does that effect him and others?

- Intelligence: Does the player understand things well?

- Football IQ: Something different than intelligence. I have seen "dumb as a rock" people be star players and very intelligent people suck at football.

- Health: Underlying issues with staying healthy or nagging injuries?

- Locker room: We hear this thrown out a lot "He's a great locker room guy." What is a bad locker room guy? Where does said player fall?

- Veteran Presence: How does this player help younger players?

- Dedication: This is kind of a catch all of most of the above. Is the player devoted to his job? What does he do in the offseason to improve, during the season? On the field and off the field?

I am guessing that at the end of the season coaches sit down and gather all this information on each player. The information, along with tangibles (stats, snaps, etc) are used to decide the future of this player. When it comes to Free Agency and drafting, intangibles are very important and may decide whether the Packers are interested in a player or not. The problem is, these are all guys that never played for the Packers, so some of it is hearsay and limited sourced.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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An interesting read. This authors opinion of the top 10 most important players on the 2024 roster. I mostly agree with it, but would definitely flip Love (#3) with Aaron Jones (#1). I don't see this team going anywhere in 2024 without Love, but without AJ? Might be tough, but doable.

I might also knock either Nixon, Doubs or Tom out and insert Anders Carlson or at least "Place Kicker" in at #5.

 

tynimiller

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An interesting read. This authors opinion of the top 10 most important players on the 2024 roster. I mostly agree with it, but would definitely flip Love (#3) with Aaron Jones (#1). I don't see this team going anywhere in 2024 without Love, but without AJ? Might be tough, but doable.

I might also knock either Nixon, Doubs or Tom out and insert Anders Carlson or at least "Place Kicker" in at #5.


Without reading my list is as it sits now....ten most important guys for success this year:

1 - Jordan Love
2 - Rashan Gary
3 - Kenny Clark
4 - Aaron Jones
5 - Jaire Alexander
6 - Zach Tom
7 - Romeo Doubs
8 - Jayden Reed
9 - Quay Walker
10 - Luke Musgrave
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Without reading my list is as it sits now....ten most important guys for success this year:

1 - Jordan Love
2 - Rashan Gary
3 - Kenny Clark
4 - Aaron Jones
5 - Jaire Alexander
6 - Zach Tom
7 - Romeo Doubs
8 - Jayden Reed
9 - Quay Walker
10 - Luke Musgrave
You are pretty close to what he had. I always view "value" to the team as that of what the team loses without that player. I guess with how young many of those Packer players are, you have to factor in expected development too.

While I like Doubs, his stats could be made up for by Wicks or Watson. Really just your top 5 are guys I feel are head and shoulders above their immediate backup. After those 5 you get into "if he or his replacement plays at a higher level.....this happens".

I would remove Doubs and add: (Name of FA Safety here).
 
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IMO both Ty and Amari would have been better off fair catching. IMO they were run out of town because of fumbles.
When you signal a fair catch and fumble it it’s still a fumble. Maybe you guys are right, we should pay players to fair catch or just run away from the ball :roflmao: Heck I’ll do that for Vet minimum + my very own locker… and free soda pop.. and my own parking spot
 
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Nfl kickoffs returned for touchdowns:
2023 - 4
2022 - 2
2021 - 2
2020 - 7
2019 - 7
2018 - 5
2017 - 7
2016 - 7
2015 - 2
2014 - 6
2013 - 2
2012 - 2
2011 - 9
Last Packer KO TD was Cobb in 2011... imho I'd go the fair catch route. The odds aren't in our favor of a TD anytime soon. Nixon was a good KO returner, but not worth spending $4mil/yr on.
I think you guys are confusing value of compensation for a particular role by saying guys should only fair catch. Either that or you just claimed all 32 teams are doing it wrong which would be silly. You do realize many teams have statistical genius’ and actuaries that look at that stuff (Risk). It’s not that I don’t think you’re a sharp guy, but I’d personally need more than an opinion that all teams have been, are and will he incorrectly returning Kicks. But go ahead I’m all ears.
If you prove we had a net loss per return I’ll willfully and gladly submit that you guys are right and all NFL teams are wrong. Until then I’ll think you’re REALLY BORED! :roflmao:

I will offer that we just let Nixons $1.1Mil contractual money hit the books recently. I totally forgot we rolled some of his compensation into the future. While it’s not 100% Indicative of our answer, I do always like to say it’s $1.1M reasons we won’t want to add another $4Mil either (I agree on the $$ part)
I’ll also submit that had he had $0 void Monies?? it would similarly helped his cause at getting another contract probably in that 2yrX$6/7Mil area, where we could spread the cap hit. Now we might’ve priced him out of GB.
 
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Technically you just indicated that you think the BEST Returner should not do anything but fair catch?
I’d like to see the evidence of the best returners hurting their team by not fair catching ALL kicks. I haven’t seen one shred of evidence that supports that, but I’m open ears.
I think the NFL is trying to eliminate kickoffs entirely, they're not sure how to do so without ticking-off the football purists. I'm advocating not paying a player $4+mill/yr to be a returner, but to put a sure-handed WR or RB back to fair catch every kickoff. Why risk a fumble, holding, block in the back or other penalty? Take it at the 25 & let Love go to work.
 
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I think the NFL is trying to eliminate kickoffs entirely, they're not sure how to do so without ticking-off the football purists. I'm advocating not paying a player $4+mill/yr to be a returner, but to put a sure-handed WR or RB back to fair catch every kickoff. Why risk a fumble, holding, block in the back or other penalty? Take it at the 25 & let Love go to work.
I understand that part. I was just going to mention Safety (see Khylin Hill)
I’m also a HUGE proponent of avoiding self inflicted penalties that cause a -22 yard penalty.
 
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Either way. If Nixon signed at 2YrX$5mil he’d already have his first check in the mail. It’s about $$ and term flexibility for me, not so much arguing the entire league is wrong on returning kicks

I’d be much more worried about overpaying <$Savage$> He’s very average and I’m being nice today.
 

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Nfl kickoffs returned for touchdowns:
2023 - 4
2022 - 2
2021 - 2
2020 - 7
2019 - 7
2018 - 5
2017 - 7
2016 - 7
2015 - 2
2014 - 6
2013 - 2
2012 - 2
2011 - 9
Last Packer KO TD was Cobb in 2011... imho I'd go the fair catch route. The odds aren't in our favor of a TD anytime soon. Nixon was a good KO returner, but not worth spending $4mil/yr on.
Break one doesn't have to be a TD. Getting it out beyond the 30/35 would make me happy.
 

Thirteen Below

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Well, holy crap.

I saw something yesterday where Florio said he was told by a source who is typically very reliable about these issues that the $242M cap was going up a lot more than the ~$20M most people were expecting, and possibly even as high as $250.

Number just came in today, and it's $255. :eek:

Obviously, it's going to get spent fast, but it definitely gives us breathing room on some of our free agents like Jones, Nixon, and Savage, while possibly making it easier to bring in an outsider. Maybe even allow us to frontload more of Jordan's contract to give us more flexibility in future years.

 

Pokerbrat2000

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Well, holy crap.

I saw something yesterday where Florio said he was told by a source who is typically very reliable about these issues that the $242M cap was going up a lot more than the ~$20M most people were expecting, and possibly even as high as $250.

Number just came in today, and it's $255. :eek:

Obviously, it's going to get spent fast, but it definitely gives us breathing room on some of our free agents like Jones, Nixon, and Savage, while possibly making it easier to bring in an outsider. Maybe even allow us to frontload more of Jordan's contract to give us more flexibility in future years.

The cap is just an accounting number to me. It could be 155 or 455 and I could care less. All it really means is the NFL made a bigger boatload of money then they projected. With every team getting more money, it just means players will get more money. So that $8M/year FA Safety that the Packers were hoping to sign, might now get $12M from another team.
 

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The cap is just an accounting number to me. It could be 155 or 455 and I could care less. All it really means is the NFL made a bigger boatload of money then they projected. With every team getting more money, it just means players will get more money. So that $8M/year FA Safety that the Packers were hoping to sign, might now get $12M from another team.
Disagree to a point. I doubt if anyone gets a 50% jump because of a 4% unexpected increase in the cap. However, we all should never underestimate the absolute stupidity we see in the middle of March every year. The knucklehead GM's that are on their last inch of rope are capable of anything.
 

Pokerbrat2000

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Disagree to a point. I doubt if anyone gets a 50% jump because of a 4% unexpected increase in the cap. However, we all should never underestimate the absolute stupidity we see in the middle of March every year. The knucklehead GM's that are on their last inch of rope are capable of anything.
Keep in mind that all the players under contract, won't immediately profit from the increased cap. My point was that an increase in the cap, just allows teams to spend more on the new contracts that they are offering to current Free Agents (their own and others). Not much different than allowing teams to shove cap hits out into the future, so that they can spend more in the present.
 

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Packers Cap: For arguments purposes let's say that Newman and Toure are released. That would free up another 2.4M immediately, prior to reworking/releasing Bakhtiari,Campbell, Smith and Jones.

All in all, I'd say we are getting into much better cap health than we've seen in some time. We've got 17 of our top 51 now that have no dead money on the books. Our total dead money for '24 sits at 16M which is ok imo.

There are numerous other teams that aren't looking as good as us now.

Lol, New Orleans has officially hooked their wagon to Derek Carr. Good luck with that!
 

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