2023 season finale vs the Bears: Win and in edition part deux

BrokenArrow

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Moving Turner to LT was a debacle as well as keeping Mo Drayton as the ST coach against the Niners. Rodgers could've played better but it's hard enough to win without your coach adding to the burden in a big way.
Rodgers could have played a LOT better. He's quite possibly the best regular season QB of all time. But in tight playoff games down the stretch, he would morph into Trent Dilfer.
 

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I hope the Bears keep Fields too. Like you said he sucks as a passer and a running QB will only get you so far until the league catches up to him. Many said similar things about Lamar Jackson but the biggest difference between Fields and Jackson is that Jackson always did show an ability to throw when he had to or wanted to.

Jackson has also shown an uncanny ability not to take direct hits when running the ball.
 

milani

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Jackson has also shown an uncanny ability not to take direct hits when running the ball.
Not the time to underrate Fields. I recall a 1st round playoff game in 2002 against Michael Vick. We were supposed to beat the indoor Falcons. Instead the guy went dashing through the snow in a one horse open field.
 

Voyageur

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Not the time to underrate Fields. I recall a 1st round playoff game in 2002 against Michael Vick. We were supposed to beat the indoor Falcons. Instead the guy went dashing through the snow in a one horse open field.
An apt description of what happened. Don't do that! I darned near spit my coffee all over the keyboard!
 

longtimefan

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The Bears biggest thrill each season is imagining beating the Packers. Can you imagine if our highest mark was imagining beating the Bears? What a miserable existence it would be. The Chicago version of Winning a SB is beating the Packers once in regular season :roflmao:
Flip teams in 70 and 80..that was our SB
 

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Packers history w running QBs, TEs and FBs is not good. I think Kaepernick still holds an NFL record for most rushing yards by a QB in a game. And, that was a playoff game versus the Pack. Ugh.
 

longtimefan

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Packers history w running QBs, TEs and FBs is not good. I think Kaepernick still holds an NFL record for most rushing yards by a QB in a game. And, that was a playoff game versus the Pack. Ugh.
And a diff Gm and a diff DC and a diff HC

Whats consistent
 
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Maybe Carlson goes 0-for-5 and we change strategy and score 5 2-pt conversions?
You may have said that tongue n cheek. That said, It’s interesting but I read somewhere that the league as a whole scores 2pt conversions at a 58% rate. Also recently read that the NFL floats around 95% XPM%. Couple this with.. I’m pretty sure GB is better in the Redzone than average ? We’re definitely worse than average at XPM this far.
I’d round each # a hair. But the statistical average for GB (or better)
60%X2pts = 1.2 average points per try
90%XPA = 0.9 Avg pts per try

Obviously we could vary this on conditions such as Opponent ST rankings, weather, road vs home or even in-game scores and time on clock etc.


As a rule, Wouldn’t it be better to apply your scenario of 2pts knowing that? At least in calculated games? Are we missing points?
 
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You may have said that tongue n cheek. That said, It’s interesting but I read somewhere that the league as a whole scores 2pt conversions at a 58% rate. Also recently read that the NFL floats around 95% XPM%. Couple this with.. I’m pretty sure GB is better in the Redzone than average ? We’re definitely worse than average at XPM this far.
I’d round each # a hair. But the statistical average for GB (or better)
60%X2pts = 1.2 average points per try
90%XPA = 0.9 Avg pts per try

Obviously we could vary this on conditions such as Opponent ST rankings, weather, road vs home or even in-game scores and time on clock etc.


As a rule, Wouldn’t it be better to apply your scenario of 2pts knowing that? At least in calculated games? Are we missing points?
In a vacuum, the simple math agrees with you. All else equal, go for two. But, that works long-term over several games. But, are coaches enough to put up with rough spots over time as the math "evens out?"

We all know tackles aren't made in a vacuum. Some teams defend 2-pts better than others. Some teams won't adopt a similar mindset, so if you score a touch and are down 7-6, you have to assess if the above as well as how many more swings are you going to get at TD if you don't convert. Also, how dinged up is your offense? How good is your kicker?
 
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In a vacuum, the simple math agrees with you. All else equal, go for two. But, that works long-term over several games. But, are coaches enough to put up with rough spots over time as the math "evens out?"

We all know tackles aren't made in a vacuum. Some teams defend 2-pts better than others. Some teams won't adopt a similar mindset, so if you score a touch and are down 7-6, you have to assess if the above as well as how many more swings are you going to get at TD if you don't convert. Also, how dinged up is your offense? How good is your kicker?
That’s kinda what I meant. I was surprised the 2pt was that successful. In a higher scoring game you have a decent shot at picking up m. About every 3 TD’s you’d pick up a point just statistically. It’s not huge, but it makes sense why a good Offense like Detroit went for it. They’re probably thinking they are above league average at getting 2 tough yards. So they’d be in that 60%+ area. Just being aggressive I liked it.
I don’t like Detroit fake punting in opponent FG range though. I’d never do that unless past about the 40-45 yardline. It’s basically lost points and there’s no guarantee even if you made the line to gain that you’d go 70 yards and score. It’s a desperation try unless you are losing be 3 scores with like 6 minutes game clock. Nothing to lose
 

milani

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Flip teams in 70 and 80..that was our SB
Good point. Go back to the season finale of 1968. We were already eliminated but the Bears needed to beat us for the division crown. Starr and Bratkowski were knocked out by the Bears and we had to go with 3rd stringer Don Horn. The kid delivered and thanks to a Ray Nitschke pick at the end we ended the Bears season 28-27.
 

Pkrjones

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Keys to today's game: keep Love comfortable in the pocket by neutralizing Sweat & interior DL pressure; & limiting Fields runs. Fields has 2 reads, the TE, then Moore before choosing to run. IF the front 5 can't gt to Fields they need to force the runs up the middle where there is help. Winner of turnovetswill be the winner of the game. GB 27, Bears 24.
 

milani

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Keys to today's game: keep Love comfortable in the pocket by neutralizing Sweat & interior DL pressure; & limiting Fields runs. Fields has 2 reads, the TE, then Moore before choosing to run. IF the front 5 can't gt to Fields they need to force the runs up the middle where there is help. Winner of turnovetswill be the winner of the game. GB 27, Bears 24.
Right about ball security. Our young guys have got to protect it whether on a punt return or in traffic. It looked easy in Minnesota. It won't be so easy today. Do not get in FG territory only to be pushed out of it by a 3rd down sack. Sometimes take what the D gives you.
 

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I feel about the Bears in this game the way the late Wayne Simmons felt when he reportedly said this about the Patriots before Super Bowl XXXI:

"I'm sick and tired of hearing about what a great team the Patriots are. I watched the film. They f---ing suck."

Green Bay 27
Chicago 13
 

PackerDNA

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A large part of winning this game will be attitude. Will they be tight nervous, or loose and on their game? Love's calm and poise will carry the day. Packers 27-20
 

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bad feeling all week. watson?
If one WR were to sit out, the money would be on Watson for not practicing Friday. However, I thought it might also be Wicks because of the vicious hit he took on his TD catch vs Panthers. He took a shot.

Or, did they elevate DuBose as a kind of reward for good work on the P squad? Maybe they consider him close in ability to Bo Melton and want to keep him "involved." Or, they want to give him some "Gameday" experience in case of another WR injury.

Also, it's possible the Bears will be short-handed at CB with Johnson doubtful, and another CB questionable. Maybe MLF going to go "air raid" with a lot of 4- and 5-wide sets where a 7th WR might be handy. (I'm not a fan of this, as I think they should run Aaron Jones more today. But, I'm on the couch with Cheetos stains on my beater, so what do I know...)
 

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I really liked Simmons, his attitude and the way he played. You got enough guys like that and you can play with anybody. Rest in peace big dog.
 

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