2020 Salary Cap Situation

[tynimiller]

Irvin is not a RB beyond #3 emergency duty. He isn't a safety net against the Jones/Williams pending free agency. Either of those losses at #1 or #2 would have to be addressed in 2021 free agency or the draft.

I in no way believe he can be a team's bell cow, nor did I make that seem the case. However, I would prefer to have more than just Dexter beyond this season as of now.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I in no way believe he can be a team's bell cow, nor did I make that seem the case. However, I would prefer to have more than just Dexter beyond this season as of now.

Preferring that Irvin be on a 2 year deal has to be limited to a perception of value in the return game and the gadget plays. He's no answer to the RB position beyond, "Oh, sh*t!"

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Irvin is not a RB beyond #3 emergency duty. He isn't a safety net against the Jones/Williams pending free agency. Either of those losses at #1 or #2 would have to be addressed in 2021 free agency or the draft.

The Packers should definitely use the draft to address the running back position next offseason if Jones and/or Williams leave on free agency.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Packers should definitely use the draft to address the running back position next offseason if Jones and/or Williams leave on free agency.

When it comes to #2 RBs, if that's what it comes to, I would not rule out free agency for a complimentary fit for Jones or a like speed back drafted in the interim.

The habit of second contract failure among RBs is chiefly a function of high volume piled on top of 4 years of high volume. A lower volume player over 4 years with a good medical record who would complement that speed back, Jones or otherwise, would not be expensive with a mitigated risk unless there's a reason he could be projected as a #1, say a guy stuck behind a Pro Bowler or All Pro who flashed in injury relief in a few games.

Whether that guy would or would not be available in free agency is a question mark, but I would not rule it out. Come to think of it, Williams is kinda that guy. So maybe, never mind.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

When it comes to #2 RBs, if that's what it comes to, I would not rule out free agency for a complimentary fit for Jones or a like speed back drafted in the interim.

The habit of second contract failure among RBs is chiefly a function of high volume piled on top of 4 years of high volume. A lower volume player over 4 years with a good medical record who would complement that speed back, Jones or otherwise, would not be expensive with a mitigated risk unless there's a reason he could be projected as a #1, say a guy stuck behind a Pro Bowler or All Pro who flashed in injury relief in a few games.

Whether that guy would or would not be available in free agency is a question mark, but I would not rule it out. Come to think of it, Williams is kinda that guy. So maybe, never mind.

Well, as long as that running back signs for close to the veteran minimum I would be fine with it.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Well, as long as that running back signs for close to the veteran minimum I would be fine with it.

Well, you're not going to get that with Williams or anybody else you'd want as a #2. On the other hand, a scenario where #1 and #2 are filled in the 2021 draft, you get a very inexpensive duo but their rookies who will likely lack some of the finer points of playing NFL running back. A rookie #1 speed guy combined with a complimentary Williams or some like player brings the RB budget cost down quite low.

I just want to make the point that disregarding all RBs in free agency under any scenario a year in advance of when it may happen seems overly strident.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Well, you're not going to get that with Williams or anybody else you'd want as a #2. On the other hand, a scenario where #1 and #2 are filled in the 2021 draft, you get a very inexpensive duo but their rookies who will likely lack some of the finer points of playing NFL running back. A rookie #1 speed guy combined with a complimentary Williams or some like player brings the RB budget cost down quite low.

That's why I would prefer the Packers to re-sign Jones to a reasonable deal and fill the spot behind him on the depth chart with a late round pick.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Lets recap (pun intended) how the cap has been spent so far this year along with required (or close to it) spending going forward:

When I started this on January 24, the Packers had 43 players under contract with an estimated cap cost of $174.5 mil for 2020. If the widely anticipated release of Graham was assumed at that time yielding $8 mil in additional cap, it would have been 42 players with a cap cost of $166.5 mil.

Today, the top 51 cap cost (including Graham's dead cap) is about $193 mil with 11 mil in remaining caps space. I don't think I've ever seen overthecap and spotrac be as close on these numbers as now.

Where have all the good times gone, some $27 mil worth of cap spend, without signing an impact player and losing Bulaga?

• Aaron Jones base salary increase under the NFL's Proven Performance Escalator program
• Jamaal Williams base salary increase under the NFL's Proven Performance Escalator program
• Crosby
• Kirksey
• Turner
• Lewis
• Funchess
• Ervin
• 5 ERFAs who land in the top 51
• $40,000 base salary increase under the new CBA for anybody on a minimum 2nd. year or greater salary
• Since that gets us to 53 players, so there's an add back to the cap of $1.3 mil for the current players 52 and 53 who roll off.

I think that's everything.

Then there's the "required" spend going forward.

• Draft Class: $2.3 mil guestimate

spotrac estimates the first year cap for the 10 draft picks at $7.6 mil. They have not update their table for the new salary scale. The rookie minimum is increasing $100,000 and there will be some rippling increases going up the line. Let's call the draft class $8.6 mil for yucks. If all 10 guys made the roster while going from the top 51 cap to the opening day 53 player cap, The current bottom 8 guys in the top 51 would roll off for an add back to the cap of $6.3 mil.

​

It should be noted that historically a 4th. round pick's first year cap cost was not much much more than the rookie minimum, so anybody in the draft class from that point down getting cut and replaced by some guy on a rookie minimum, a UDFA or a past PS guy who has not earned a accrued year, won't make much difference.

• Practice Squad: $2.1 mil

This year, 12 players x 17 weeks x $10,500 per week

That takes us to about $6.6 mil in usable cap space at this time which could be used for rollover. There's still the ever popular "cut Taylor" and "cut Linsley" for substantial cap savings back into the pot though I wouldn't bet on it until they see who they get in the draft.

 

[PikeBadger]

Lets recap (pun intended) how the cap has been spent so far this year along with required (or close to it) spending going forward:

When I started this on January 24, the Packers had 43 players under contract with an estimated cap cost of $174.5 mil for 2020. If the widely anticipated release of Graham was assumed at that time yielding $8 mil in additional cap, it would have been 42 players with a cap cost of $166.5 mil.

Today, the top 51 cap cost (including Graham's dead cap) is about $193 mil with 11 mil in remaining caps space. I don't think I've ever seen overthecap and spotrac be as close on these numbers as now.

Where have all the good times gone, some $27 mil worth of cap spend, without signing an impact player and losing Bulaga?

• Aaron Jones base salary increase under the NFL's Proven Performance Escalator program
• Jamaal Williams base salary increase under the NFL's Proven Performance Escalator program
• Crosby
• Kirksey
• Truner
• Lewis
• Funchess
• Ervin
• 5 ERFAs who land in the top 51
• $40,000 base salary increase under the new CBA for anybody on a minimum 2nd. year or greater salary
• Since that gets us to 53 players, so there's an add back to the cap of $1.3 mil for the current players 52 and 53 who roll off.

I think that's everything.

Then there's the "required" spend going forward.

• Draft Class: $2.3 mil guestimate

spotrac estimates the first year cap for the 10 draft picks at $7.6 mil. They have not update their table for the new salary scale. The rookie minimum is increasing $100,000 and there will be some rippling increases going up the line. Let's call the draft class $8.6 mil for yucks. If all 10 guys made the roster while going from the top 51 cap to the opening day 53 player cap, The current bottom 8 guys in the top 51 would roll off for an add back to the cap of $6.3 mil.

​

It should be noted that historically a 4th. round pick's first year cap cost was not much much more than the rookie minimum, so anybody in the draft class from that point down getting cut and replaced by some guy on a rookie minimum, a UDFA or a past PS guy who has not earned a accrued year, won't make much difference.

• Practice Squad: $2.1 mil

This year, 12 players x 17 weeks x $10,500 per week

That takes us to about $6.6 mil in usable cap space at this time which could be used for rollover. There's still the ever popular "cut Taylor" and "cut Linsley" for substantial cap savings back into the pot though I wouldn't bet on it until they see who they get in the draft.

The good cap news is that there will be cuts forthcoming that aren’t in the current bottom 8 which will increase the usable cap room even more.

I find it unlikely that both Linsely and Taylor will get cut. One of the two is the most likely scenario imo.

we could use a Don Barclay type again on this roster that can fill in at 4 OL positions

 

[HardRightEdge]

The good cap news is that there will be cuts forthcoming that aren’t in the current bottom 8 which will increase the usable cap room even more.

I find it unlikely that both Linsely and Taylor will get cut. One of the two is the most likely scenario imo.

we could use a Don Barclay type again on this roster that can fill in at 4 OL positions

I noted the Taylor/Linsley factor in the last pragraph.

 

[superdan]

Lets recap (pun intended) how the cap has been spent so far this year along with required (or close to it) spending going forward:

When I started this on January 24, the Packers had 43 players under contract with an estimated cap cost of $174.5 mil for 2020. If the widely anticipated release of Graham was assumed at that time yielding $8 mil in additional cap, it would have been 42 players with a cap cost of $166.5 mil.

Today, the top 51 cap cost (including Graham's dead cap) is about $193 mil with 11 mil in remaining caps space. I don't think I've ever seen overthecap and spotrac be as close on these numbers as now.

Where have all the good times gone, some $27 mil worth of cap spend, without signing an impact player and losing Bulaga?

• Aaron Jones base salary increase under the NFL's Proven Performance Escalator program
• Jamaal Williams base salary increase under the NFL's Proven Performance Escalator program
• Crosby
• Kirksey
• Truner
• Lewis
• Funchess
• Ervin
• 5 ERFAs who land in the top 51
• $40,000 base salary increase under the new CBA for anybody on a minimum 2nd. year or greater salary
• Since that gets us to 53 players, so there's an add back to the cap of $1.3 mil for the current players 52 and 53 who roll off.

I think that's everything.

Then there's the "required" spend going forward.

• Draft Class: $2.3 mil guestimate

spotrac estimates the first year cap for the 10 draft picks at $7.6 mil. They have not update their table for the new salary scale. The rookie minimum is increasing $100,000 and there will be some rippling increases going up the line. Let's call the draft class $8.6 mil for yucks. If all 10 guys made the roster while going from the top 51 cap to the opening day 53 player cap, The current bottom 8 guys in the top 51 would roll off for an add back to the cap of $6.3 mil.

​

It should be noted that historically a 4th. round pick's first year cap cost was not much much more than the rookie minimum, so anybody in the draft class from that point down getting cut and replaced by some guy on a rookie minimum, a UDFA or a past PS guy who has not earned a accrued year, won't make much difference.

• Practice Squad: $2.1 mil

This year, 12 players x 17 weeks x $10,500 per week

That takes us to about $6.6 mil in usable cap space at this time which could be used for rollover. There's still the ever popular "cut Taylor" and "cut Linsley" for substantial cap savings back into the pot though I wouldn't bet on it until they see who they get in the draft.

Thanks for the recap. All that being said, the packers already have less cap space than they normally carry into a season for emergencies. They normally keep 7.5 million, as you said they are already down to 6.6 million. I wouldn't necessarily call that "usable" at this point. Looking at where we stand now you can almost guarantee we will make some cap saving moves. Whether it is cutting taylor or linsley, or whether it is adjusting/extending some current players to push some money to later years. We've gotta be careful about kicking the can down the road though, as we all know next year already looks impossible.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The good cap news is that there will be cuts forthcoming that aren’t in the current bottom 8 which will increase the usable cap room even more.

I find it unlikely that both Linsely and Taylor will get cut. One of the two is the most likely scenario imo.

we could use a Don Barclay type again on this roster that can fill in at 4 OL positions

Also, I suggest you check out post #264 in this this thread which shows the 2021 depth chart using for the 30 players under contract at a cap cost of $164 mil in considering how any newly freed up cap might be spent.

The good news is there will be two drafts in the interim. That's assuming they are in fact good drafts.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Thanks for the recap. All that being said, the packers already have less cap space than they normally carry into a season for emergencies. They normally keep 7.5 million, as you said they are already down to 6.6 million. I wouldn't necessarily call that "usable" at this point. Looking at where we stand now you can almost guarantee we will make some cap saving moves. Whether it is cutting taylor or linsley, or whether it is adjusting/extending some current players to push some money to later years. We've gotta be careful about kicking the can down the road though, as we all know next year already looks impossible.

Yeah. But I would not call 2021 "impossible".

There are two drafts in the interim. If you get 3 good players out of each draft and Gary becomes a player, that's an inexpensive underpinning to the whole thing. Of course you won't know what the 2021 draft will yield until you put them on the field.

There's a tendency to look at this stuff backwards. Good draft picks don't supplement the roster. They are the high value players in the cost-performace calculation that allow releasing out-year vets for cap savings and refreshing with higher value free agent or extension talent.

Without those first contract players you're not likely going where you want to go.

 

[HardRightEdge]

If I was Gute and given the situation of ONLY Dexter signed past this season, I'd have tried to sign Tyler to a 2 year deal. Safety net with little dead cap if cut after 1 though.

Ervin and Funchess might have been offered two year deals, but if the offer was without a meaningful guarantee that results in 2021 dead cap or a meaningful bump in salary in year two, they may have prefered a one year deal.

If you look at from their side, if they ball out they'd be stuck with that cheap second year. If the don't they'd be cut with no dead cap, strictly a team option with no team downside.

"Prove it" can cut both ways.

Conversely, if you look at Begelton's contract, it's for 3 years with salaries at the minimums and miniscule dead cap in years 2 and 3. The Packers may have demanded that 3 year deal, with years 2 and 3 purely a team option at a tiny cost. Again, if he balls out he loses, if he doesn't he loses. We normally don't talk about "team friendly" deals at the bottom end of the pay scale, but this happens to be one. It's Begelton's cost for a shot at the show at age 27.

 

[gbgary]

anything in a bracket ( ) is a negative number.

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[mradtke66]

we could use a Don Barclay type again on this roster that can fill in at 4 OL positions

I suspect they view Taylor as that player. I kind of do.

 

[HardRightEdge]

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He's still carrying a $7.5 mil holdback for "in season transactions" which would be carried over if not used. His cap space is $5.9 mil after adding that holdback back into the pot.

I came up with $6.6 mil on the same terms (deducting for the draft, players 51 and 52, and the practice squad) a few posts above. Another number that's as good as any.

 

[gopkrs]

I wonder if there was one scout who was really high on Jenkins last year? If there was; I would say to listen to that guy again this year and draft another interior lineman and then we could let Linsley go and have some money.

 

[tynimiller]

I wonder if there was one scout who was really high on Jenkins last year? If there was; I would say to listen to that guy again this year and draft another interior lineman and then we could let Linsley go and have some money.

Patrick is NFL ready more than any iOL that will be there at #30, as I only have Ruiz pegged as the truest stud to play center in the NFL I'd say is plug and play better than Patrick at this moment in their career. That doesn't mean there are not others I love, because there is...but cutting Linsley has been something I've advocated for quite awhile...however until they need that saved cash for another move or two there is no reason to.

 

[Heyjoe4]

That's why I would prefer the Packers to re-sign Jones to a reasonable deal and fill the spot behind him on the depth chart with a late round pick.

That’s a workable solution, depending on what Jones expects his market value will be. Unfortunately, top RB contracts are now well over $10 mil/year (I’m specifically thinking of Zeke Elliott), and Christian McCaffrey will likely command around $15/16 mil year.

I still like the idea. I’d like it even better if Gluten could get it done before/if the season starts.

And just to complicate things, Gluten will still have to figure out a way to pay Clark (for sure) and Bak (maybe) in 2021. I know it may sound like heresy to say let Bak walk, but he’ll be 30 I think and his back problem looks chronic. I just hate the thought of GB playing w/o him and protecting ARod’s blind side.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

That doesn't mean there are not others I love, because there is...but cutting Linsley has been something I've advocated for quite awhile...however until they need that saved cash for another move or two there is no reason to.

The Packers could spend the money saved by releasing Linsley next offseason as well.

That’s a workable solution, depending on what Jones expects his market value will be. Unfortunately, top RB contracts are now well over $10 mil/year (I’m specifically thinking of Zeke Elliott), and Christian McCaffrey will likely command around $15/16 mil year.

I still like the idea. I’d like it even better if Gluten could get it done before/if the season starts.

Running backs aren't important enough to spend $10 million per season on any of them.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Running backs aren't important enough to spend $10 million per season on any of them.

It's not that RBs are not important enough. Jones, a player with a modest load for a starting RB, accounted for 37% of team touches in 2019, 285 of 767. It ranges up to McCaffrey accounting for 52% of his team's touches in 2019.

For second contracts, it's the injury risk and mileage that supresses value. RB low draft values has its own reasons besides injury/mileage risks, importance of the position notwithstanding, a discussion for another time.

Here are the RBs who had 1,000+ rushing yards in their 3rd. season with their 3rd. - 8th. year rushing yardages listed in order for the last 7 seasons where we have an 8 year player record so I could get up to 20 names. "DNP" indicates "did not play" which could mean injured for the entire season, officially retired, or nobody would sign them. Sub-1,000 yard seasons are in bold. Seasons with yardage exceeding the 3rd. year total are in red.

2008

DeAngelo Williams: 1515, 1117, 361, 836, 737, 843

2009

Adrian Peterson: 1383, 1298, 970, 2097, 1266, 75
Ryan Grant: 1253, 45, 559, 132, DNP, DNP
Fred Jackson: 1062, 927, 934, 437, 890, 525

2010

Jamall Charles: 1467, 83, 1509, 1287, 1033, 364
Chris Johnson: 1364, 1047, 1043, 1077, 663, 814
Rashard Mendenhall: 1273, 928, 182, 687, DNP, DNP
Ray Rice: 1220, 1364, 1143, 660, DNP, DNP
Peyton Hillis: 1177, 587, 309, 247, 115
Darren McFadden: 1157, 614, 707, 359, 534, 1089
Matt Forte: 1069, 997, 1094, 1339, 1038, 898
Green-Ellis: 1008, 667, 1094, 756, DNP, DNP

2011

LeSean McCoy: 1309, 840, 1607, 1319, 895, 1267
Arian Foster: 1224, 1424, 542, 1246, 163, 55
Shonn Green: 1054, 1063, 295, 392, DNP, DNP
Beanie Wells: 1047, 234, DNP, DNP, DNP, DNP

2012

C.J. Spiller: 1244, 933, 300, 112, 18, 0

2013

None

2014

Demarco Murray: 1121, 1845, 702, 1287, 659, DNP
Alfred Morris: 1074, 751, 243, 547, 428, 4
Lamar Miller: 1099, 872, 1073, 888, 973, DNP

In a four year second contract for a star RB, the odds are not good that you'll get your money's worth. In a backloaded contract you're not likely to see very manageable dead cap until year 4. If you look at the 2nd. to last number for these players, the player's 7th. years where some meaningful dead cap would be on the books if the contracts were generous, the numbers are not good.

14 of 20 did not break 800 yards rushing in their 7th. season. 6 of those were out of the league altogether while only 3 gained a 1,000 yards in their 7th. season. Only 3 of 20 improved on their their 3rd. year rushing yards in their 4th. season.

While this is hardly a scientific study of the matter, it does give indications of the risk involved in RB second deals. It suggests the moneyball approach is:

• Don't sign running backs to second contracts until after the 4th. season.
• Only do that if the guy is still productive, healthy and has not racked up excessive college + NFL touches. (That might be Jones given his touches to date.)
• Limit the extension offer to two years, in which case he will likely sign elsewhere and you will likely be thankful for that over time.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Packers could spend the money saved by releasing Linsley next offseason as well.



Running backs aren't important enough to spend $10 million per season on any of them.

I agree with that. I’d be ok with Jones in the $7 mil/year range. Just because the rest of the world is going nuts doesn’t mean we need to follow. My guess is that the Cowboys will ultimately regret the Zeke deal, same with McCaffrey when he is resigned (although McCaffrey can catch, so IMO he’s better than Zeke, just not $16 mil/year better).

Overpaying for a RB is the baseball equivalent of overpaying for a pitcher. The positions are very prone to injury and plain ol wear and tear - and now in the NFL, big contracts.

 

[tynimiller]

Anyone know the timing of Linsley's pay this year? I'm seeing more and more times folks saying Cesar Ruiz could be there at #30 and I'm sorry but I strongly believe him to be the best iOL we've seen in a while in the draft and would INSTANTLY save us some money and IMO be at WORST as good as Linsley (i think better).

 

[Heyjoe4]

Anyone know the timing of Linsley's pay this year? I'm seeing more and more times folks saying Cesar Ruiz could be there at #30 and I'm sorry but I strongly believe him to be the best iOL we've seen in a while in the draft and would INSTANTLY save us some money and IMO be at WORST as good as Linsley (i think better).

I don’t know the pay situation with Linsley

Anyone know the timing of Linsley's pay this year? I'm seeing more and more times folks saying Cesar Ruiz could be there at #30 and I'm sorry but I strongly believe him to be the best iOL we've seen in a while in the draft and would INSTANTLY save us some money and IMO be at WORST as good as Linsley (i think better).

I don’t know the pay situation with Linsley either. Regardless, if Ruiz is sitting there at #30 it would be hard to pass on him. WR and OL are the biggest needs, so a lot will depend on how many impact WRs are also available at #30. Personally, I’d take a WR at #30 and deal with OL in the 2nd round, but it would be an interesting dilemma for Gluten come draft night.