H
HardRightEdge
Guest
It's time again to make the donuts I suppose.
The NFL has advised teams that the 2020 cap will be in the range of $196.8 - $201.2 mil.
Last season in came in at the lower end of the estimated range, $188.2 mil against the estimated range of $187.0 - $191.1 mil. TV ratings were better this year. Let's use the mid-range of the estimate, $199.0 mil cap for 2020.
Various sources have the Packer cap carryover in the $5 - $6 mil range. Taking the midpoint of $5.5 mil, that gives the Packers working available cap of $204.5 mil.
The Packers currently have 43 players under contract for 2020 with a cap cost of about $174.5 mil after some minor dead cap. Lets assume Graham will be cut which takes us to 42 players with a cap cost of 166.5 mil.
That gets us to available cap space of $38 mil.
If we assume Clark will be signed to a 4 year backloaded deal, we can reckon that's a wash relative to his $7.7 mil 5th. year option. On the subject of backloading, it's hard to see Gutekunst going as extreme as last year with those 4 primary free agents. As contracts stand now, the difference between 2019 and 2021 cap costs for Rodgers, Adams, the Smiths, Amos and Turner is an increase of $41 mil. With Clark on a backloaded deal, that increase would go to over $50 mil. It's hard to think the new CBA in 2021 will make up that 2 year difference. 2021 also has a more difficult free agency class than 2020's: Bakhtiari, Jones, King and Linsley. Replicating last year's free agency haul is not likely short of a "2021 be damned" approach.
Anyway, lets work with that $38 mil as baseline. The draft class will come in somewhere around $7.5 mil for the 10 picks assuming the conditional pick for Reggie Gilbert comes through. Then subtract another $500,000 for an undrafted rookie filling out the 53 man roster. Knock off another $3 - $4 mil for practice squad and the injury replacement reserve.
So, what you have to work with is a draft class plus $26.5 mil in free cap space.
To "stay even", you have to re-sign or replace in kind the following starters: Bulaga, Graham, Martinez and Tramon Williams, with no clear up-and-comer replacements on the roster, along with Crosby and Ervin on special teams. I did not include Allison in that list as expendable or Lazard as an inexpensive exclusive rights free agent. Then there are rotational players like Lewis and Fackrel who have some value, though I think to make this all work you have to count on Gary to make the step up next season.
There's some discussion of releasing Linsley and Taylor in addition to Graham to pick up an additional $13 mil in cap which would bump available cap to $39.5
mil. That would take the current roster of OLs down to Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Turner and Patrick the presumtive center, with the remainder being Light, Madison, Nijman and Leglue. Given that collection of bench players, just guys barring some surprise I would not expect, you'd be looking at finding a starting RT and two bench players who can play if need be. Given other needs, I don't think you can get rid of both Linsley and Taylor without acquiring a backup of some value.
Patrick showed enough that I would not have a problem picking up the $8.5 mil in releasing Linsley to get the free space up to the $35 mil range. If not retaining Taylor then acquiring a similarly priced vet who can swing G/T or at least play both OT positions would be needed. I find Veldheer something of a mystery. Given the demand and prices for OTs and given how well he played in relief, it's somewhat hard to explain the weak demand for his services on the waiver wire. At 33 years old, but with most of a year's worth of R&R, and experience at both OT positions and even some OG, a Taylor-out-Veldheer-in move on a one year deal would be a net add if he has no market as a starter.
All in all, given the number of key players with heavy cap backloads going into 2021 along with the free agents coming up after 2020, I don't think you're going to see four name free agents this go round. Maybe 2, with something more than this season's $5 or $6 mil carryover going into 2021.
The toughest job will probably be an getting the ILB position where it needs to be.
I think we'll need to get 3 starters out of this draft to go with a couple of decent free agents and Gary having some impact in year 2. In the end, you have to stack drafts to get where you want to go regardless. It gets harder after 2020.
The NFL has advised teams that the 2020 cap will be in the range of $196.8 - $201.2 mil.
Last season in came in at the lower end of the estimated range, $188.2 mil against the estimated range of $187.0 - $191.1 mil. TV ratings were better this year. Let's use the mid-range of the estimate, $199.0 mil cap for 2020.
Various sources have the Packer cap carryover in the $5 - $6 mil range. Taking the midpoint of $5.5 mil, that gives the Packers working available cap of $204.5 mil.
The Packers currently have 43 players under contract for 2020 with a cap cost of about $174.5 mil after some minor dead cap. Lets assume Graham will be cut which takes us to 42 players with a cap cost of 166.5 mil.
That gets us to available cap space of $38 mil.
If we assume Clark will be signed to a 4 year backloaded deal, we can reckon that's a wash relative to his $7.7 mil 5th. year option. On the subject of backloading, it's hard to see Gutekunst going as extreme as last year with those 4 primary free agents. As contracts stand now, the difference between 2019 and 2021 cap costs for Rodgers, Adams, the Smiths, Amos and Turner is an increase of $41 mil. With Clark on a backloaded deal, that increase would go to over $50 mil. It's hard to think the new CBA in 2021 will make up that 2 year difference. 2021 also has a more difficult free agency class than 2020's: Bakhtiari, Jones, King and Linsley. Replicating last year's free agency haul is not likely short of a "2021 be damned" approach.
Anyway, lets work with that $38 mil as baseline. The draft class will come in somewhere around $7.5 mil for the 10 picks assuming the conditional pick for Reggie Gilbert comes through. Then subtract another $500,000 for an undrafted rookie filling out the 53 man roster. Knock off another $3 - $4 mil for practice squad and the injury replacement reserve.
So, what you have to work with is a draft class plus $26.5 mil in free cap space.
To "stay even", you have to re-sign or replace in kind the following starters: Bulaga, Graham, Martinez and Tramon Williams, with no clear up-and-comer replacements on the roster, along with Crosby and Ervin on special teams. I did not include Allison in that list as expendable or Lazard as an inexpensive exclusive rights free agent. Then there are rotational players like Lewis and Fackrel who have some value, though I think to make this all work you have to count on Gary to make the step up next season.
There's some discussion of releasing Linsley and Taylor in addition to Graham to pick up an additional $13 mil in cap which would bump available cap to $39.5
mil. That would take the current roster of OLs down to Bakhtiari, Jenkins, Turner and Patrick the presumtive center, with the remainder being Light, Madison, Nijman and Leglue. Given that collection of bench players, just guys barring some surprise I would not expect, you'd be looking at finding a starting RT and two bench players who can play if need be. Given other needs, I don't think you can get rid of both Linsley and Taylor without acquiring a backup of some value.
Patrick showed enough that I would not have a problem picking up the $8.5 mil in releasing Linsley to get the free space up to the $35 mil range. If not retaining Taylor then acquiring a similarly priced vet who can swing G/T or at least play both OT positions would be needed. I find Veldheer something of a mystery. Given the demand and prices for OTs and given how well he played in relief, it's somewhat hard to explain the weak demand for his services on the waiver wire. At 33 years old, but with most of a year's worth of R&R, and experience at both OT positions and even some OG, a Taylor-out-Veldheer-in move on a one year deal would be a net add if he has no market as a starter.
All in all, given the number of key players with heavy cap backloads going into 2021 along with the free agents coming up after 2020, I don't think you're going to see four name free agents this go round. Maybe 2, with something more than this season's $5 or $6 mil carryover going into 2021.
The toughest job will probably be an getting the ILB position where it needs to be.
I think we'll need to get 3 starters out of this draft to go with a couple of decent free agents and Gary having some impact in year 2. In the end, you have to stack drafts to get where you want to go regardless. It gets harder after 2020.
Last edited by a moderator:
.
