What is the word on BJ Raji?

[HardRightEdge]

Next fatty up!

Well, if it ends up being Pennel, either as a starter or spot player, he's no bag of donuts. For a 6'4", 330 lb. man there's not much gut on him.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/0ap2000000333645/2014-Combine-workout-Mike-Pennel

Sure, he's stiff in the hips compared to the athletic big men in the league, but he plays strong and with serious intent...he's got a motor and gets push. As one writer put it, he's been putting the 2nd. and 3rd. team centers on skates throughout the preseason. He'd keep a few first sting centers up at night.

Boyd's a mini-fatty at about 310 lbs., but he's the more athletic of the two, as is evident in this clip:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap2000000151751/2013-Combine-workout-Josh-Boyd

Boyd has looser hips and is more fluid than Pennel...more like a mini-Raji. That's why they put him at 5-tech last season.

I'd say this: If Capers wants a 0 gap guy to crash the center, Pennel looks like the better bet. For 1 gap play, which seems to be what he's preferred in the preseason, Boyd's athleticism would appear to be the better fit.

Hodkiewicz led his piece about the Raji injury with, "The Green Bay Packers' worst fears have been realized." Hardly.
I can think of at least a dozen players on this team I'd be more concerned about losing than Raji. And if it were not for the unproven youth at NT and strong depth in the defensive back field the count would be higher than a dozen. If it were not for Barrington, I'd even rate Hawk a bigger loss than Raji.

I see no reason to change my 10-5-1 projection for this team.

 

[HardRightEdge]

No, I'm not presuming that the surgery is like a brake job. Here is an article I read that says nothing but the injury being debilitating and everything about making a full recovery: http://handorthopedics.com/bicep-tendon-tear-or-rupture/

Also, I'm not basing my information on Raji solely based off 2011 and before. The article i gave about him being offered a big contract was from late December, 2013.

EDIT: Raji can play NT well, but what makes him special is his 1-gapping ability. Unfortunately, our genius of DC in Dom Capers has limited Raji's opportunities to rush the passer. Another team might not be so stupid.

And lets not compare Bishop to Raji. Two different players, two different positions, two different injuries, no comparison. If you want to play that game, as LTF pointed out Jennings got paid pretty well, but I don't use that, either, because two different players, tw different positions...you get the idea.

You keep talking about the contract he didn't sign while overlooking the one he did...his value went way down because he played horribly in 2013. It's one thing to be playing out of position...if that was actually the problem...and another to not put up much of an effort doing it. He didn't tackle anybody because he couldn't be bothered to get off blocks, work the backside, or pursue. Why do you think the league wasn't much interested?

I didn't understand the Jennings comparison the first time it was mentioned and you certainly didn't clarify things. He got a $10 mil per year contract and, playing 15 games, took a ton of snaps, scoring high on two of the three criteria for compensation. We got a third round pick for that.

Raji will not make the money to score high. So he'd have to take a ton of snaps and make the Pro Bowl to yield a 3rd. round pick. I don't see that happening.

Maybe it's not been made clear enough that what a FA did with his old team or what he got paid there doesn't count in calculating compensation...only what he does in that first year with the new team along with the terms of the new contract.

I would also note that for the past 2 seasons Raji has played mostly 5 tech in base and 3 tech in nickel. He did not play much o tech. He had plenty of gapping opportunities even if they were not in the 1 slot.

 

[brandon2348]

Well, if it ends up being Pennel, either as a starter or spot player, he's no bag of donuts. For a 6'4", 330 lb. man there's not much gut on him.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/0ap2000000333645/2014-Combine-workout-Mike-Pennel

Sure, he's stiff in the hips compared to the athletic big men in the league, but he plays strong and with serious intent...he's got a motor and gets push. As one writer put it, he's been putting the 2nd. and 3rd. team centers on skates throughout the preseason. He'd keep a few first sting centers up at night.

Boyd's a mini-fatty at about 310 lbs., but he's the more athletic of the two, as is evident in this clip:

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-videos/0ap2000000151751/2013-Combine-workout-Josh-Boyd

Boyd has looser hips and is more fluid than Pennel...more like a mini-Raji. That's why they put him at 5-tech last season.

I'd say this: If Capers wants a 0 gap guy to crash the center, Pennel looks like the better bet. For 1 gap play, which seems to be what he's preferred in the preseason, Boyd's athleticism would appear to be the better fit.

Hodkiewicz led his piece about the Raji injury with, "The Green Bay Packers' worst fears have been realized." Hardly.
I can think of at least a dozen players on this team I'd be more concerned about losing than Raji. And if it were not for the unproven youth at NT and strong depth in the defensive back field the count would be higher than a dozen. If it were not for Barrington, I'd even rate Hawk a bigger loss than Raji.

I see no reason to change my 10-5-1 projection for this team.

Maybe Thornton can 1 gap if he had too.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Maybe Thornton can 1 gap if he had too.

Possibly, but he's not jumped out at me in preseason.

 

[brandon2348]

Possibly, but he's not jumped out at me in preseason.

I know. Him and Bradford are getting out shined by UDFA's.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I know. Him and Bradford are getting out shined by UDFA's.

Yeah, that seems to be the case. Even Luther Robinson has had a couple good snaps. Nobody's been talking him up except for Dunne, but he looks like a PS guy anyway.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Didn't Terrell Suggs do the same thing too a few years ago?

Everybody remembers the guys who make it back from injury; the guys who don't are quickly forgotten.

 

[HardRightEdge]

The Comp pick formula is "a secret", but there are general guidelines in figuring out these picks. 3rd round picks are reserved for teams that lose a key player to a multi-year$40+Mil contract (i.e. $8Mil+/yr, Mike Wallace to Miami for 5yr/$60Mil). 4th rounders are generally multi-year $30-$39Mil contracts ($6-7.99Mil/yr, i.e. Connor Barwin 6yr/$36Mil), 5th roundes avg. $4.5-5.99Mil/yr. and so on.

TT signed Julius Peppers (3yr/$26Mil) and potentially lose Raji (1yr/$4Mil). The only '14 FA loses of note are James Jones (3yr/$10Mil), CJ Wilson (1yr/$795K) and EDS (4yr/$14Mil)... I doubt there will be any comp picks in '15, and Raji possibly leaving won't factor in at all.

I don't believe we owe any compensatory pick for Peppers because the Bears cut him.

 

[Einstein McFly]

Actually this might hurt our ability to get smaller and quicker on the DL. Tough to play a Datone Jones at 285 without Raji's bulk right next to him.

Yeah, that's exactly it. It's not how many snaps he'd play, it's how many snaps we'll need him that we won't have him. If we can't stop the run we're gonna have a ton of snaps where we wish we'd have had him. The best way to have to play a lot of base is to not be able to stop the run.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

TT signed Julius Peppers (3yr/$26Mil) and potentially lose Raji (1yr/$4Mil). The only '14 FA loses of note are James Jones (3yr/$10Mil), CJ Wilson (1yr/$795K) and EDS (4yr/$14Mil)... I doubt there will be any comp picks in '15, and Raji possibly leaving won't factor in at all.

The Packers will once again get two late round compensatory picks for losing EDS and Jones as Peppers doesn't factor into it because he was released by the Bears.

 

[Carl]

There is another way to go with this as well and that's to replace Raji by going to more 4-3 schemes. Daniels is a true 4-3 DT. I would feel comfortable with a Neal, Boyd, Daniels, Peppers DL and a Matthews, Hawk, B. Jones LB unit. You'd have Pennel to rotate in on running downs so he can stay fresh. Thornton could replace Boyd/Daniels on non-important downs. Perry can come in and provide help for Neal and Peppers. Lattimore could help fill in for Brad Jones if he's still injured or if he needs a breather. I feel like without Raji we are a much better suited for a 4-3 than 3-4. Heck, even with Raji we might be better suited for a 4-3.

Changing the entire scheme significantly is not the way to go because one guy went down. There's a lot to it. For example, D linemen in a 3-4 have different responsibilities than in a 4-3. Not a good idea to take our mostly young d linemen and give them different roles. Plus, we would be taking Clay away from what he does best in rushing the passer.

 

[Carl]

Boys and Pennell both played well according to this article.

http://m.jsonline.com/packers#/articles/272452181

 

[AKCheese]

Raji is a talented guy who was moving back to his more natural position. Losing him is a setback but the kind of thing all teams have to overcome at some point. Most likely Raji will be back in Green Bay next year on a one year deal. The only way GB would not resign him would be if his rehab were not going well.

 

[longtimefan]

I did the jennings compairison only because he got offered a nice deal by the pack and turned it down..just like bj



Then jennings got hurt but the eventual contract was no where near what he wanted..and that will be BJ's contract next year.. No where near what he wants

I dont know what the comp pick was for jennings, but my whole point was the comp pick for greg probably be a lot more than any comp pick BJ will net us

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Lets stop that crap

I am deleting posts, please dont continue this

Did I miss something there ???

 

[longtimefan]

Did I miss something there ???

Missed nothing

 

[I asked LT to delete my acct]

Missed nothing

I couldn`t follow the conversation was all. Nothing more !

 

[FrankRizzo]

Just remember this: there will be more injuries to our DL, sooner and late. There always are.
Just because we think we might have enough guy snow to patch it all up, there have to be more in the pipeline on the inactive gameday lists and the practice squad.

Unless you have Jolly or Pickett on call.
Where the GraveDigger at these days?

 

[easyk83]

It's not really changing the entire scheme. We are using 4-3 looks anyways. Do those players not know what to do when we line up in a 4-3? They would be just fine IMO.


They did, but there is a difference between playing well for a few snaps in a preseason game and playing well for 16 games as a starter.

EDIT: To the OP's question about other injuries, I re-watched the game today and Jamari Lattimore got hurt, but I haven't been able to find any details. It looked like maybe he popped his shoulder out. He dove over someone and landed ******* his shoulder. It happened with 9:10 left in the 3rd quarter if anybody is interested in looking it up. He did leave the field and I didn't see him come back on. K Jones replaced him.

EDIT: Tyler Dunn also Tweeted this:

I'm buying that this is true, and I'm expecting some sort of trade to go down. Keep your ears open over the new few days ladies and gents.

Pennell played pretty well against a solid vet starter last game. I think he'll be alright once the season starts.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I didn't clear the Jennings part up because I don't think either Jennings or Bishop are good players to compare Raji to. That was the point of my comment.

As far as I can see, we disagree on two main points: How much money Raji will command in FA if he goes elsewhere in FA, and how serious this bicep injury is.

On the money portion, would you feel Raji would command a 3rd or 4th round pick if he didn't get injured this year? I'm just trying to figure out if the injury is causing the money issue for you. On the injury portion, why do you think this is a debilitating injury? Have you heard it is or what? Everything I have read is that it is not debilitating, so I'd be interesting in reading something to the contrary. And if it's not debilitating, I think it's a lot harder to say that this injury will affect Raji's value that much.

As for Raji's contract, I already responded to why he got the $4 million contract. That was a discount he took because he thought he was worth more than $8 million per year. He valued having only 1 year on his contract at $4 million more than a longer contract at $8 million per year. (He could make that $4 million difference up if he had an off the charts year and commanded what the top DT's get which is around $12-$13 million per year.)

So IMO, it's not me that is ignoring a contract, it's you. You are completely throwing out the fact that the NFL actually offered Raji $8 million per year. You even go so far as to say that the NFL didn't show much interest. $8 million per year is not much interest to you? That's what the NFL showed he was worth. Also, I don't want this to come off too negatively. I respect your opinion, but I disagree with it, and I'm simply trying to explain my side.

On the 1-gapping comment, I didn't mean that Raji should be a 5-tech. I was referring to a 1-tech...a 1-gapping NT/DT or whatever you want to call it. Raji's real value is that he can 2-gap (0-technique) on obvious running downs, but he also can 1-gap (1-technique), and that is IMO his greatest strength, on obvious passing downs.


I haven't raved about Robinson, but I have talked about how much playing time he has gotten in the past. It's really hard to read exactly how much that really matters, though, as the team has really thrown players all around this year. He hasn't gotten embarrassed against anybody that I've seen, even against 1's, but I haven't seen him make many plays, either. So Robinson has thrown me for a loop all offseason/preseason.



Age is also a major factor in Comp picks. Players don't bring in Comp picks if they are too old, which seems to be around 30 or 31. And you are correct that if a player gets cut they do not count towards Comp picks, so that is a double whammy for Peppers. Trades also do not count for or against Comp picks, and neither do waiver claims. Neither do RFA pick-ups.

I'll try this one more time. I cannot make it simpler than this:

NFL players get discounted for uncertainties, be they performance or injury related.

Significant uncertainties were introduced between the Packers $8 million per year offer and the $4 million one year deal. Raji's 2013 season was one business decision snap after another. NFL GMs and coaches don't like that. I take that back...they hate it.

2014 was to be a "do over" of his contract year...a second chance to prove he could play up to the second contract.

That uncertainty persists. Nobody pays big money for practice snaps and a handful of preseason downs.

Now a second uncertainty has been introduced...a serious injury.

So, the next one year "prove it" contract goes down from $4 million. Multiple uncertainties compound. I'll give you this much...somebody might offer $2 million for one year with a small signing bonus to bring the guy to camp to see what he can do. If the young guys prove to be adequate to the task, that lower "prove it" offer will not come from the Packers; Thompson has not been shy about jettisoning players when some combination of age, injury, dead cap and bench strength argue for it. If the young guys prove to be decent, that's a 3-fer.

I believe that exhausts my current thoughts on the matter based on available information.

 

[TJV]

The reason Raji was drafted where he was is because he was a 330+ pound man with exceptional quickness. IMO this injury hurts for two reasons: First because there was a decent chance Raji would finally be motivated to use his size and quickness to cause havoc in the middle of the DL. Second because every injury to a starter strains depth. Everyone on the depth chart steps up a notch.

Regarding Raji’s contract: This is a quote from McGinn’s story last November about Raji’s contract offer:

An executive high up in personnel for an NFL team was asked, given the market forecast for 2014 and beyond, if Raji should take the $8 million. "Damn right he should," the scout said. "For $8 million he should be signing. Who is his agent?" Another high-ranking personnel chief thought it would be a no-brainer for Raji.

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/pack...him-long-term-deal-b99143128z1-232226061.html
I agree accepting that offer was a no brainer and Raji, through his agent made a serious miscalculation. Why? Because every team in the league can watch every snap Raji has played in the league. Every team could see how Raji’s effectiveness and IMO effort declined after the 2010 season. He can make the excuse he was playing DE instead of NT but he was also so ineffective rushing the passer from DT in the 2-man DL he lost his spot in the sub packages. Obviously if that’s the Raji that would have been playing this season, his injury doesn’t hurt but he was reportedly having a good TC.

 

[Carl]

It's not really changing the entire scheme. We are using 4-3 looks anyways. Do those players not know what to do when we line up in a 4-3? They would be just fine IMO.


They did, but there is a difference between playing well for a few snaps in a preseason game and playing well for 16 games as a starter.

EDIT: To the OP's question about other injuries, I re-watched the game today and Jamari Lattimore got hurt, but I haven't been able to find any details. It looked like maybe he popped his shoulder out. He dove over someone and landed ******* his shoulder. It happened with 9:10 left in the 3rd quarter if anybody is interested in looking it up. He did leave the field and I didn't see him come back on. K Jones replaced him.

EDIT: Tyler Dunn also Tweeted this:

I'm buying that this is true, and I'm expecting some sort of trade to go down. Keep your ears open over the new few days ladies and gents.

Yes, the guys would know what to do, but odds are they wouldn't be as good at it. The young guys will be the best at what they doody often.

Next man up seems like the much better solution to me.

 

[PackerFlatLander]

Let's be honest ... Pickett was simply not very good last season and at his age - they moved on. Jolly has the neck issue and we know how this team deals with those. If Jolly's neck wasn't a concern, there's no doubt in my mind that he'd be there this year. So, I think "next man up" is the best idea. Josh Boyd is a beast and he perfectly fits the mold of the direction they're going on the d-line - smaller, quicker, and younger. Not much to see here - it's pretty clear.

 

[brandon2348]

Yeah, that seems to be the case. Even Luther Robinson has had a couple good snaps. Nobody's been talking him up except for Dunne, but he looks like a PS guy anyway.

Well maybe the fact there not even talking up Robinson is a good sign as Pennel and Boyd appear capable to hold down the NT.

It's not really changing the entire scheme. We are using 4-3 looks anyways. Do those players not know what to do when we line up in a 4-3? They would be just fine IMO.


They did, but there is a difference between playing well for a few snaps in a preseason game and playing well for 16 games as a starter.

EDIT: To the OP's question about other injuries, I re-watched the game today and Jamari Lattimore got hurt, but I haven't been able to find any details. It looked like maybe he popped his shoulder out. He dove over someone and landed ******* his shoulder. It happened with 9:10 left in the 3rd quarter if anybody is interested in looking it up. He did leave the field and I didn't see him come back on. K Jones replaced him.

EDIT: Tyler Dunn also Tweeted this:

I'm buying that this is true, and I'm expecting some sort of trade to go down. Keep your ears open over the new few days ladies and gents.

Trade? I was thinking about that yesterday and the guy to shop is Perry.

 

[HardRightEdge]

A word about the preseason run defense:

One thing I've noticed is increased aggressiveness from the back 7 or 8 in coming up in run support. Hawk, Jones, the safeties...these guys have been crashing the line with more vigor than in recent seasons.

An extreme example is the run blitz against OAK's 8 man front on the Jones-Drew TD run. We had 4 down linemen, 6 guys on the line, and 9 in the box. By the time MJD crossed the LOS, we had 10 guys at or across the LOS. Hawk made a terrific recovery play but missed the shoe string tackle. That 3-step bounce-out-and-cut-back messed with the blitz attack lanes and Hyde and Williams were both playing for the outside bounce leaving the cutback open. Kind of a freaky set of events. The -1 goes to Hyde for overplaying the bounce out....Williams had outside contain with no wideout or slot guy on that side.

The first upshot being that with more gap play on the D-Line, more attacking from the LBs and DBs, and the switch to smaller and more athletic DEs, it all adds up to a more attacking D. Perhaps increased confidence in the secondary contributes to this shift (back) to a more attacking style.

Higher risk, higher reward. I like it.

The second upshot is that whatever Raji contributed to the apparently (it is preseason, after all) revitalized run defense is a small part of the overall picture.