tynimiller
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Well well well....only two more predictive mocks from me before the draft are left. Incase it's your first time with me, I do mocks a bit different....it's not just me doing a mock, but I try especially as we get closer to April predict what Gute may actually do. Here's February...
1.25 - The part that sucks is likelihood of a QB still be here that someone might want to come up and grab I think will be low...most of that shuffling is done by 15, 20 at the worst I think this draft given prospects and teams looking one would assume. So a strong trade back due to QB prospect is low....the only other option could be if a WR someone has high on their board manages to slide back and through. I strongly think Gute would trade back if right offer but let's say no suitors.
Gute looks at his board and he has a guy according to the War Room's board checks tons of boxes...a very much physical freak for his positional placement, HIGH RAS, elite level competition, not a crazy older prospect and in a position defenses can never have enough of......he calls in the name and Goodell walks to the mic...
".....Darius Robinson, Missouri." I can see the heads exploding now...keyboards melting....screams recording and played back on youtube and tik tok...Gute again "flips the script" and picks a guy according to his board and script not ours. Yes Safety is of immense need, yes OL stud would be monumental....shoot a LB to finally be a clear stud at that position all are possible...but an edge?!?!?!
Built in the mold of a Karl Brooks and somewhat lesser Van Ness - Robinson is that BIGGER bodied athletic beast along the edge that can reduce inside. The man's measurables outside of weight (only 20 pounds light) are honestly everything you look for in a elite movement level tackle prospect for your OL. 6'5' 286lbs (slender frame could hold more even if needed or asked) with arms stretching 34.75 inches and a wingspan at 84.5.
That wingspan and arm length made essentially everyone not named Patrick Paul at the senior bowl look small. Kid is a freak and his experience with alignment diversity along the outside and inside is that diverse offering and body size that Hefley will need should we see more 4-3 front types. Enagbare is right on the edge body size make up for this new role style possibly, throw in his injury and outside need is there but Gute throws everybody into a whirlwhind with a Gary and LVN type drafting.
2.41 - Kamren Kinchens Miami - S. Due to being a safety in a class with no CLEAR head and shoulders Kyle Hamilton type, it is hard to predict who the first true safety (DeJean could be the best safety drafted...) off the board and when. The perfect world scenario is Gute doesn't push or force the Kinchens pick at 25, and instead is rewarded with him still there at 41. The other option would be if Nubin is on the board. Both have the ability IMO to be that one high type guy, Kinchens is pronounced Nick Collins in my house and yes I understand that level of expectations. I've broken Kinchens elsewhere and will just paste:
- Closing Ability - The first thing that pops to me is this mans downhill or jump ball closing explosion seems quicker than at any other time he closes on the field. It's almost like his body can produce a higher gear when he sees a ballcarrier break through the line or the ball is in the air more so than even if a receiver slips behind a corner and he has over the top help and has to close. Kinchens plays the ball, and does so with an anger almost that I always saw in Nick - until the ball is possessed by the offense, Kinchens 100% feels that ball is his.
-Body for hitting - While he is highly athletic and has excellent speed and acceleration (not elite but very good) none of that comes at a cost of body structure or hitting ability. He unlike say Bullock out of USC is not a pencil thin pool noodle trying to shoulder or ankle tackle everything (I'm exxagerating folks but Bullock is much more slender). At 5'11' 205lbs (Miami site claims 6 foot)
- Fluidity and Flexibility throughout movements - While his long speed isn't quite elite, meaning unlike say stokes who could make up for misstep or delayed reactions with his speed, Kinchens makes up for in his anticipation but also his body control. His hips are fluid and this allows hip to keep exceptional leverage typically when in coverage....his backpedal is IMO the best out of the safeties on this list and it is all of this that gives me that true center field of the future vibe from him.
- Ball hawking can cost him - His aggression and belief he can get the ball costs him at times and his growth in the knowledge and in game ability to know when to go for it and when to go for the receiver instead or just not overcommit will be the biggest hurdle IMO of him being just a starter vs potentially an all pro type safety in a few years.
If you want to see him in at his best IMO check out the film from this years' Texas A&M game...all phases he showed out. Both this year and last year Clemson games he was awesome, and last year's film that got me pumped for him even last year was Georgia Tech and the before mentioned Clemson game. That GTech game of 2022 Kamren scored guys a 96.8 overall PFF grade...but a 77.6 in Run defense, 73.6 Tackling grade and a 96.2 Coverage grade...just ludacris good day. He took over 400 snaps (57.2%) at FS vs 174 box and 117 slot in 2022 and this past year saw him again majority at FS with 379 (59.4%) FS vs 110 box and 113 slot.
2.57 Junior Colson Michigan Linebacker - I just cannot get over how much I like Junior as a prospect...and in a LB cluster of guys like Cooper/Trotter/Wilson Junior is the guy I keep going back feeling like there is still so much untapped there for him ceiling wise. He isn't the best rusher when sent on a blitz, but this man is a tackling beast - who isn't a one trick pony, match him up in coverage and he can hold his own and do it quite well. Even more impressive is how amazing he is once he gets his hands on you - he tackles you. There are many guys Michigan can thank for their dominance of late, but Junior's name better be among them when you speak on it.
Campbell is aging out...Quay needs someone to come in and either wake him up or let him be our second best LB not our best. Either way, Junior checks a TON of boxes for Gute, arguably I bet every box he cares about (age, high level college play, RAS...all of it).
3.88 Christian Jones, Texas OT - lot of guys I like...but here I could see Gute grab a guy that may be unknown to some. Relatively quiet college career when Texas had him at LT, then in 2022 they moved him to RT and something clicked. From 2022 and through this year - PFF claims Jones only gave up 4 sacks in that time and as we all know Texas has faced both those year some elite rushers in matchups. He checks the boxes GB seems to like coming in at 6'5' 318lbs / 34 7/8 arms and 83 7/8 wingspan he has better length than Tom did coming out. Jones has the athleticism and the tenacity I bet to play all but center spots along our front so picking him would be essentially IMO mean between him, walker and Tom the LT, RG and RT would shake out to the best grouping. A guy to many that has been "rising" but he's never been less or more, and those that have watched tape knew they saw a top 100 or so level guy.
3.91 Max Melton, Rutgers CB - I had this to say dating clear back to September and while Rutgers just was down all year, he showed out at the Senior Bowl and showed a lot of what I saw then:
He is traditionally a sticky outside corner, however did fair well in limited slot snaps this year in 2023. I'll say the one thing I love about Melton is he is fearless...he will turn himself into a missile in run support and he will likely sacrifice his own health before letting a play go by him.
4.125 - Javon Foster, Missouri OT - I won't bore you with a ton more...look I love this guy and have since last year. Slightly older prospect but tremendous experience in the SEC with immense success to boot. Size and length and play illustrates he can play anywhere but center for us and honestly I wouldn't be shocked if he is a lot like Tom for us. With Runyan likely gone, Nijman too and Newman proving just not progressing at all...taking a second diverse tackle prospect before the fourth is done is quite Gute-esq in nature.
5.177c - Keith Randolph Jr, Illinois iDL - If you've watched film Randolph is a guy that Illinois predominately used in B Gap or Over Tackle but tossed in some outside Tackle even. That ability to slide around is by far one of his most attractive traits, but to see him in Mobile be one of the most consistent bigguns in 1v1 reps with the OL changed my view some on him and showed me there absolutely is that 2022 level guy in him still. 2022 this cat produced 30 or so pressures depending on data source...and that plummeted to around a dozen in 2023. But I feel like part of that was how they used him and I question if there wasn't somekind of injury. However, whatever it was he showed up in Mobile and balled out. He's a hard one to predict, I could see him there in the sixth or gone in the late fourth...so picking him here is not crazy and too much to pass for a team again trying to give Hefley everything he needs with an offense that isn't crazy in need.
6.203 - Isaac Guerendo, Louisville RB - Here's one I'll let out of the bag I have held close to my chest. I have shared how much I liked Braelen Allen from Wisconsin...but to be fair as I dug into his film, as much as I love the kid I don't see a diverse gamechange potential. I see a guy that plods for yards almost and has a TON of usage on his wheels. Enter the other back from "wisconsin". The Wisconsin transfer, just simply had no avenue to playing time behind Allen so went to serve as the change of pace back with Jawhar Johnson and nearly put up more yards than Johnson. He is a BIG back, but has juice in his legs... 6'1' 225lbs. I love the patience he shows, but also if he sees the chance for yards collapsing he lowers his shoulders and plows.....with immense body control to roll and spin even out of contact at times like the old thundering Lacy (albeit not as bowling ball esq). The bonus with Isaac is low use on the tires despite having been a 6th year Covid guy...in his years at Wisconsin he totaled only 99 rushing attempts and this last year rushed for 810 yards on 132 attempts good for 6.1 YPC...PLUS he produced 10.6 yards per catch on 22 for 234 yards. 11 touchdowns as well. Take - Guerendo not Allen I think will be the "Wisconsin" running back with a longer NFL career. *Also I think we bring Dillon back on a small contract...
6.217c - Andrew Raym, Oklahoma OC - Josh Myers hasn't lit the world unfire....but he hasn't been terrible either. After the 2024 season Green Bay will be facing yet again the quandry of what to do with a center and their expiring rookie contract. Do we do to Myers like we did Linsley and say see ya, thanks but no thanks for the future? I think that chance is high and while a late Day3 pick shouldn't be relied on for the replacement you also don't dislike the idea of taking a cheap swing at something potentially. Senior Bowl prospect who had some of his best reps vs T'Vondre Sweat, not something that should go unnoticed, had glimpses in Mobile as to why many feel the best of Raym's game is well ahead of him. His hands are so quick they can make up for his footwork sometimes not being quick enough off the snap...if his technique can build some without any pressure his rookie year - there might be something there. High level competition type guy who will get his chance in the NFL...why not make it be in GB, hopefully in 2025.
7.246 - Hayden Hatten, Idaho WR - Day3 and Gute takes a late round flyer on a guy that knows one thing - production. 2022 Hatten put up 1,209 yards / 16 TDs on 83 receptions. In 2023 he put up 1,231 yards / 9 TDs on 93 receptions. He averaged over 14 yards per catch in his college career and shined at the Hula bowl this year doing what he just does - put up points. He's got size 6'2' 205lbs and from what interviews I could find and intel I could gather (have a friend whose son plays FCS football and has faced Idaho) he is a guy that is very willing to run block too though. In a position group that doesn't need anything arguably....if nothing worse he is your PS replacement of Toure or DuBose.
7.256c - Marshel Martin, Sacramento State FB/TE/H-Back - I've mentioned him in passing before but this is a small school crush Deguara replacement if Ben Sinnot isn't able to be drafted. Marshel showed in 2022 when Sac State threw the ball more that he can be a versatile weapon out of the backfield, split out or inline... putting up 879 yards receiving on 65 receptions kicking in 12 TDs. I mean folks this young man in his freshman campaign put up 550 yards / 39 receptions / 7 TDs. His senior year his stat lines dropped but the team had a lot more spread it scheme and no one on the roster had more than 693 yards...so Marshel's 315 yards (8.8 average) was still very strong for a guy that was sent out in routes far less. A competent, compact physic blocker - who has amassed nearly 2,400 receiving yards and 27 TDs has every bit of a chance to be that small school replacement for Deguara departing.
1.25 - The part that sucks is likelihood of a QB still be here that someone might want to come up and grab I think will be low...most of that shuffling is done by 15, 20 at the worst I think this draft given prospects and teams looking one would assume. So a strong trade back due to QB prospect is low....the only other option could be if a WR someone has high on their board manages to slide back and through. I strongly think Gute would trade back if right offer but let's say no suitors.
Gute looks at his board and he has a guy according to the War Room's board checks tons of boxes...a very much physical freak for his positional placement, HIGH RAS, elite level competition, not a crazy older prospect and in a position defenses can never have enough of......he calls in the name and Goodell walks to the mic...
".....Darius Robinson, Missouri." I can see the heads exploding now...keyboards melting....screams recording and played back on youtube and tik tok...Gute again "flips the script" and picks a guy according to his board and script not ours. Yes Safety is of immense need, yes OL stud would be monumental....shoot a LB to finally be a clear stud at that position all are possible...but an edge?!?!?!
Built in the mold of a Karl Brooks and somewhat lesser Van Ness - Robinson is that BIGGER bodied athletic beast along the edge that can reduce inside. The man's measurables outside of weight (only 20 pounds light) are honestly everything you look for in a elite movement level tackle prospect for your OL. 6'5' 286lbs (slender frame could hold more even if needed or asked) with arms stretching 34.75 inches and a wingspan at 84.5.
That wingspan and arm length made essentially everyone not named Patrick Paul at the senior bowl look small. Kid is a freak and his experience with alignment diversity along the outside and inside is that diverse offering and body size that Hefley will need should we see more 4-3 front types. Enagbare is right on the edge body size make up for this new role style possibly, throw in his injury and outside need is there but Gute throws everybody into a whirlwhind with a Gary and LVN type drafting.
2.41 - Kamren Kinchens Miami - S. Due to being a safety in a class with no CLEAR head and shoulders Kyle Hamilton type, it is hard to predict who the first true safety (DeJean could be the best safety drafted...) off the board and when. The perfect world scenario is Gute doesn't push or force the Kinchens pick at 25, and instead is rewarded with him still there at 41. The other option would be if Nubin is on the board. Both have the ability IMO to be that one high type guy, Kinchens is pronounced Nick Collins in my house and yes I understand that level of expectations. I've broken Kinchens elsewhere and will just paste:
- Closing Ability - The first thing that pops to me is this mans downhill or jump ball closing explosion seems quicker than at any other time he closes on the field. It's almost like his body can produce a higher gear when he sees a ballcarrier break through the line or the ball is in the air more so than even if a receiver slips behind a corner and he has over the top help and has to close. Kinchens plays the ball, and does so with an anger almost that I always saw in Nick - until the ball is possessed by the offense, Kinchens 100% feels that ball is his.
-Body for hitting - While he is highly athletic and has excellent speed and acceleration (not elite but very good) none of that comes at a cost of body structure or hitting ability. He unlike say Bullock out of USC is not a pencil thin pool noodle trying to shoulder or ankle tackle everything (I'm exxagerating folks but Bullock is much more slender). At 5'11' 205lbs (Miami site claims 6 foot)
- Fluidity and Flexibility throughout movements - While his long speed isn't quite elite, meaning unlike say stokes who could make up for misstep or delayed reactions with his speed, Kinchens makes up for in his anticipation but also his body control. His hips are fluid and this allows hip to keep exceptional leverage typically when in coverage....his backpedal is IMO the best out of the safeties on this list and it is all of this that gives me that true center field of the future vibe from him.
- Ball hawking can cost him - His aggression and belief he can get the ball costs him at times and his growth in the knowledge and in game ability to know when to go for it and when to go for the receiver instead or just not overcommit will be the biggest hurdle IMO of him being just a starter vs potentially an all pro type safety in a few years.
If you want to see him in at his best IMO check out the film from this years' Texas A&M game...all phases he showed out. Both this year and last year Clemson games he was awesome, and last year's film that got me pumped for him even last year was Georgia Tech and the before mentioned Clemson game. That GTech game of 2022 Kamren scored guys a 96.8 overall PFF grade...but a 77.6 in Run defense, 73.6 Tackling grade and a 96.2 Coverage grade...just ludacris good day. He took over 400 snaps (57.2%) at FS vs 174 box and 117 slot in 2022 and this past year saw him again majority at FS with 379 (59.4%) FS vs 110 box and 113 slot.
2.57 Junior Colson Michigan Linebacker - I just cannot get over how much I like Junior as a prospect...and in a LB cluster of guys like Cooper/Trotter/Wilson Junior is the guy I keep going back feeling like there is still so much untapped there for him ceiling wise. He isn't the best rusher when sent on a blitz, but this man is a tackling beast - who isn't a one trick pony, match him up in coverage and he can hold his own and do it quite well. Even more impressive is how amazing he is once he gets his hands on you - he tackles you. There are many guys Michigan can thank for their dominance of late, but Junior's name better be among them when you speak on it.
Campbell is aging out...Quay needs someone to come in and either wake him up or let him be our second best LB not our best. Either way, Junior checks a TON of boxes for Gute, arguably I bet every box he cares about (age, high level college play, RAS...all of it).
3.88 Christian Jones, Texas OT - lot of guys I like...but here I could see Gute grab a guy that may be unknown to some. Relatively quiet college career when Texas had him at LT, then in 2022 they moved him to RT and something clicked. From 2022 and through this year - PFF claims Jones only gave up 4 sacks in that time and as we all know Texas has faced both those year some elite rushers in matchups. He checks the boxes GB seems to like coming in at 6'5' 318lbs / 34 7/8 arms and 83 7/8 wingspan he has better length than Tom did coming out. Jones has the athleticism and the tenacity I bet to play all but center spots along our front so picking him would be essentially IMO mean between him, walker and Tom the LT, RG and RT would shake out to the best grouping. A guy to many that has been "rising" but he's never been less or more, and those that have watched tape knew they saw a top 100 or so level guy.
3.91 Max Melton, Rutgers CB - I had this to say dating clear back to September and while Rutgers just was down all year, he showed out at the Senior Bowl and showed a lot of what I saw then:
He is traditionally a sticky outside corner, however did fair well in limited slot snaps this year in 2023. I'll say the one thing I love about Melton is he is fearless...he will turn himself into a missile in run support and he will likely sacrifice his own health before letting a play go by him.
4.125 - Javon Foster, Missouri OT - I won't bore you with a ton more...look I love this guy and have since last year. Slightly older prospect but tremendous experience in the SEC with immense success to boot. Size and length and play illustrates he can play anywhere but center for us and honestly I wouldn't be shocked if he is a lot like Tom for us. With Runyan likely gone, Nijman too and Newman proving just not progressing at all...taking a second diverse tackle prospect before the fourth is done is quite Gute-esq in nature.
5.177c - Keith Randolph Jr, Illinois iDL - If you've watched film Randolph is a guy that Illinois predominately used in B Gap or Over Tackle but tossed in some outside Tackle even. That ability to slide around is by far one of his most attractive traits, but to see him in Mobile be one of the most consistent bigguns in 1v1 reps with the OL changed my view some on him and showed me there absolutely is that 2022 level guy in him still. 2022 this cat produced 30 or so pressures depending on data source...and that plummeted to around a dozen in 2023. But I feel like part of that was how they used him and I question if there wasn't somekind of injury. However, whatever it was he showed up in Mobile and balled out. He's a hard one to predict, I could see him there in the sixth or gone in the late fourth...so picking him here is not crazy and too much to pass for a team again trying to give Hefley everything he needs with an offense that isn't crazy in need.
6.203 - Isaac Guerendo, Louisville RB - Here's one I'll let out of the bag I have held close to my chest. I have shared how much I liked Braelen Allen from Wisconsin...but to be fair as I dug into his film, as much as I love the kid I don't see a diverse gamechange potential. I see a guy that plods for yards almost and has a TON of usage on his wheels. Enter the other back from "wisconsin". The Wisconsin transfer, just simply had no avenue to playing time behind Allen so went to serve as the change of pace back with Jawhar Johnson and nearly put up more yards than Johnson. He is a BIG back, but has juice in his legs... 6'1' 225lbs. I love the patience he shows, but also if he sees the chance for yards collapsing he lowers his shoulders and plows.....with immense body control to roll and spin even out of contact at times like the old thundering Lacy (albeit not as bowling ball esq). The bonus with Isaac is low use on the tires despite having been a 6th year Covid guy...in his years at Wisconsin he totaled only 99 rushing attempts and this last year rushed for 810 yards on 132 attempts good for 6.1 YPC...PLUS he produced 10.6 yards per catch on 22 for 234 yards. 11 touchdowns as well. Take - Guerendo not Allen I think will be the "Wisconsin" running back with a longer NFL career. *Also I think we bring Dillon back on a small contract...
6.217c - Andrew Raym, Oklahoma OC - Josh Myers hasn't lit the world unfire....but he hasn't been terrible either. After the 2024 season Green Bay will be facing yet again the quandry of what to do with a center and their expiring rookie contract. Do we do to Myers like we did Linsley and say see ya, thanks but no thanks for the future? I think that chance is high and while a late Day3 pick shouldn't be relied on for the replacement you also don't dislike the idea of taking a cheap swing at something potentially. Senior Bowl prospect who had some of his best reps vs T'Vondre Sweat, not something that should go unnoticed, had glimpses in Mobile as to why many feel the best of Raym's game is well ahead of him. His hands are so quick they can make up for his footwork sometimes not being quick enough off the snap...if his technique can build some without any pressure his rookie year - there might be something there. High level competition type guy who will get his chance in the NFL...why not make it be in GB, hopefully in 2025.
7.246 - Hayden Hatten, Idaho WR - Day3 and Gute takes a late round flyer on a guy that knows one thing - production. 2022 Hatten put up 1,209 yards / 16 TDs on 83 receptions. In 2023 he put up 1,231 yards / 9 TDs on 93 receptions. He averaged over 14 yards per catch in his college career and shined at the Hula bowl this year doing what he just does - put up points. He's got size 6'2' 205lbs and from what interviews I could find and intel I could gather (have a friend whose son plays FCS football and has faced Idaho) he is a guy that is very willing to run block too though. In a position group that doesn't need anything arguably....if nothing worse he is your PS replacement of Toure or DuBose.
7.256c - Marshel Martin, Sacramento State FB/TE/H-Back - I've mentioned him in passing before but this is a small school crush Deguara replacement if Ben Sinnot isn't able to be drafted. Marshel showed in 2022 when Sac State threw the ball more that he can be a versatile weapon out of the backfield, split out or inline... putting up 879 yards receiving on 65 receptions kicking in 12 TDs. I mean folks this young man in his freshman campaign put up 550 yards / 39 receptions / 7 TDs. His senior year his stat lines dropped but the team had a lot more spread it scheme and no one on the roster had more than 693 yards...so Marshel's 315 yards (8.8 average) was still very strong for a guy that was sent out in routes far less. A competent, compact physic blocker - who has amassed nearly 2,400 receiving yards and 27 TDs has every bit of a chance to be that small school replacement for Deguara departing.
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. Change to 'If they aren't convinced on Health'. My overall point (like yours) was that Gute does weird things in the draft. WR is one of those consistent 'write it off, they shouldn't or aren't doing that' then draft night he does it and everyone is left scratching their head as to why.
