Will The Packers Making the Playoffs?

[mradtke66]

Because the offense isn't getting better, it's going to go backwards,

I never said that. I will say it seems likely that the passing offense gets worse with a first year starter, but it is hardly a given.

and the Defense will remain the same.

Probably, but defensive rankings tend to be highly variable season by season. Wouldn't surprise me if they played better than 2024 but are worse on paper.

JJ will be average. Because we all know that a new Vikings QB can't possibly be above average. The Vikings have averaged 31 TDs a year in passing under O'Connell. And in 2023, that was 30 with 4 different QB's. So it only makes sense that JJ will be average in that offense.

I specifically outlined what individual quarterbacks did in 2024. Average and top 10. 30 TD passes would have been 6th overall in 2024.

The best defense gave up 17.7. Not sure where you are getting your numbers from.

I cited my sources in my comment specifically prevent this response. Entirely possible they are inaccurate, but 18.1 vs. 17.7 is not drastic. Less than 1 TD over the whole season.

But let's assume that the Vikings defense isn't getting any better in their third year with Flores.

I'm saying they are unlikely to "get better" because they are already very good.

Even at that, 19.5, they still only need 6-7 ppg to make it to the playoffs. The average NFL score is around 22.9 ppg. So, an average offense with a good defense should still get you in the playoffs.

I was focusing on just the one player, Darnold to JJ. Darnold had a great year and replicating it is going to be difficult, no matter who replaced him.

Also, the average of the top 32 QBs was 22 TD's per game.

Arithmetic mean, sure. Seems to me the top 3 were doing a lot of heavy lifting. The median of the top 32 is 20.

And the average of QBs who played 17 games was 29. But then you throw in guys like Daniel Jones in New York, who was the 34th QB on the list of TDS's thrown. He didn't even finish the year out with the Giants. He spent the last 6 games on the Vikings Practice squad. The average passing TD's per team last year was 25.

Again, I'm focusing on the player, not the offense. I picked 16th and 10th as that strikes me as the most likely range he'll end up in.

 

[OldSchool101]

I never said that. I will say it seems likely that the passing offense gets worse with a first year starter, but it is hardly a given.



Probably, but defensive rankings tend to be highly variable season by season. Wouldn't surprise me if they played better than 2024 but are worse on paper.



I specifically outlined what individual quarterbacks did in 2024. Average and top 10. 30 TD passes would have been 6th overall in 2024.


I cited my sources in my comment specifically prevent this response. Entirely possible they are inaccurate, but 18.1 vs. 17.7 is not drastic. Less than 1 TD over the whole season.



I'm saying they are unlikely to "get better" because they are already very good.



I was focusing on just the one player, Darnold to JJ. Darnold had a great year and replicating it is going to be difficult, no matter who replaced him.



Arithmetic mean, sure. Seems to me the top 3 were doing a lot of heavy lifting. The median of the top 32 is 20.



Again, I'm focusing on the player, not the offense. I picked 16th and 10th as that strikes me as the most likely range he'll end up in.

This.

Totally agree. It’s very unrealistic to think a first year starter will match Darnold numbers. Not impossible but highly unlikely. Now the Vikings at least have some nice weapons and that certainly helps the cause.

The other point about MN is that their Defense played really well in 2024. I want to say #7 or #8 scoring. It’s really difficult to hold that position year in and year out. Again, not impossible but it has to do with personnel changes. The Vikes went leaning heavy at Offense like GB, but the Vikes had much more significant losses on Defense. Not earth shattering but they lost like 3-4 Starter level guys and 1-2 heavy rotational (40%-50% snaps). They signed Jonathan Allen, so there’s 1 Starter offsetting. Past that it’s not giving me warm and fuzzies.

It would amaze me if the Vikings even stayed even on Defense. On paper they are a Top 8-12 scoring Defense. That’s good enough IF the Offense is firing on all cylinders (Top 5 etc)

 

[Raptorman]

The other point about MN is that their Defense played really well in 2024. I want to say #7 or #8 scoring. It’s really difficult to hold that position year in and year out.

And yet, in New England, Brady had a top 10 defense for 16 of his 19 years there.

Again, I'm focusing on the player, not the offense. I picked 16th and 10th as that strikes me as the most likely range he'll end up in.

So, when Love started, did you use similar numbers? Just wondering. Or did you assume he would be better than average?

 

[OldSchool101]

And yet, in New England, Brady had a top 10 defense for 16 of his 19 years there.

Patriots? The Vikings are definitely NOT the Patriots.

Vikings last 5 seasons Defense ranking
5th,13th,28th,24th,29th
Ranked 20th average across 5 seasons. Now you’re going to replicate the Patriots? Please Stop! Lol

The Vikings are closer to how NOT to handle consistency on Defense. You’re D ranking bouncing around more than a porpoise on a bad acid trip. I’m having Jim Morrison flashbacks

 

[Raptorman]

Patriots? The Vikings are definitely NOT the Patriots.

Vikings last 5 seasons Defense ranking
5th,13th,28th,24th,29th
Ranked 20th average across 5 seasons. Now you’re going to replicate the Patriots? Please Stop! Lol

The Vikings are closer to how NOT to handle consistency on Defense. You’re bouncing around more than a porpoise on Acid

Nope. All I said is that the Patriots had a good defense for 19 years. Is it not possible? He said it was difficult. Sure it is. But it's easier when your DC doesn't change every year. Green Bay had one for 11 years and won 3 championships and two Super Bowls. San Fran had one for 16 years and won the 4 Super Bowls. Pittsburgh 8 years, 4 Super Bowls. But I'm supposed to believe being able to maintain a top defense isn't possible? That's right, it's the Vikings, maintaining a top defense for 3 years in a row isn't possible.

But tell us, who was the DC for those 5th and 13th rankings and who was the DC for the 28, 24 and 29? It's like claiming that Green Bay couldn't do it in 1959 because of the previous 4 years. After all, their defense sucked for the three years prior. Literally the bottom of the NFL for 4 years prior ot 59. Using a 5-year average that has two different DCs in charge is a BS argument.

I will definitely revisit this thread at the end of the year.

 

[mradtke66]

And yet, in New England, Brady had a top 10 defense for 16 of his 19 years there.

That’s still a potential wide range. Limiting it to points, I’m pretty sure I saw every ranking from 1st to 12th and a handful of 17s during Brady’s tenure.

I said variability, not bouncing from extremes.

So, when Love started, did you use similar numbers? Just wondering. Or did you assume he would be better than average?

As a first year starter? I was hoping for average.

 

[Raptorman]

That’s still a potential wide range. Limiting it to points, I’m pretty sure I saw every ranking from 1st to 12th and a handful of 17s during Brady’s tenure.

I said variability, not bouncing from extremes.


As a first year starter? I was hoping for average.

2nd year average QB TD's for all QB since 2010 is 24 per year on average.

 

[mradtke66]

2nd year average QB TD's for all QB since 2010 is 24 per year on average.

And in my range that I laid out and computed, I estimated between 16th and 10th, or 20-25TDs in 2024.

 

[OldSchool101]

Nope. All I said is that the Patriots had a good defense for 19 years. Is it not possible? He said it was difficult. Sure it is. But it's easier when your DC doesn't change every year. Green Bay had one for 11 years and won 3 championships and two Super Bowls. San Fran had one for 16 years and won the 4 Super Bowls. Pittsburgh 8 years, 4 Super Bowls. But I'm supposed to believe being able to maintain a top defense isn't possible? That's right, it's the Vikings, maintaining a top defense for 3 years in a row isn't possible.

But tell us, who was the DC for those 5th and 13th rankings and who was the DC for the 28, 24 and 29? It's like claiming that Green Bay couldn't do it in 1959 because of the previous 4 years. After all, their defense sucked for the three years prior. Literally the bottom of the NFL for 4 years prior ot 59. Using a 5-year average that has two different DCs in charge is a BS argument.

I will definitely revisit this thread at the end of the year.

Ok. I’ll play along.

Let’s use your example. You just dominate in Defense in 2025, heck it’s more likely than JJ surpassing Sam Darnold. But you never answered my earlier question. What makes the Vikings Defense so much better than 2024?? Did I miss something or something? Maybe you’ll improve to #1, #3 scoring etc. I’m just asking why ?

 

[Raptorman]

Ok. I’ll play along.

Let’s use your example. You just dominate in Defense in 2025, heck it’s more likely than JJ surpassing Sam Darnold. But you never answered my earlier question. What makes the Vikings Defense so much better than 2024?? Did I miss something or something? Maybe you’ll improve to #1, #3 scoring etc. I’m just asking why ?

Really? What makes you think the Packers' defense won't suck? They were one spot below MN. Why would they go backwards? And MN doesn't have to be much better. That's the whole point. They just have to be a little better or the same. They haven't lost any major players on Defense that would hurt them. They are in their third year with the same DC, who appears to be very good at his job. Wait, where did he learn defense from? Nah, he was in New England for 14 years; he has to suck.

 

[Heyjoe4]

There's much more to it than what you stated. Here's an article about it that mentions briefly a couple of things but doesn't give full details. It's a little more in depth than the media reports because they will never be told the full scope and details of the investigation. There are more than likely witness statements that would indicate things that have not been divulged and wouldn't be except in a court room. The names of witnesses and their statements is not offered to the public for fear of reprisals against them by those who disagree with what they say, even if it's only because of personal bias. Those details will probably never come to light. But you can rest assured the prosecutors have copies of them and it had an effect on their decision.

People who are against the stand your ground law are up in arms about it while those who believe in it are supporting Mr. Santori's right to defend himself.

In neither of these cases is their opinion unbiased. What was unbiased was the decision of the prosecutors that they did not have a solid enough case to pursue a manslaughter charge because of extenuation circumstances and the Florida stand your ground law which says he did not have to retreat to avoid the confrontation.

No charges filed for accused gunman in Vero Beach road rage killing

No charges will be filed against the man who shot and killed a 38-year-old man last November.The existing evidence does not support a probable cause finding for the offense of manslaughter, Assistant State Attorney Steve Gosnell said in a memo toState At

cw34.com

This is America. Along with legalizing the right of citizens to own guns (actually the 2nd amendment says no such thing, but we've passed the point of no return), it's now almost a requirement to own a gun to defend against others who carry guns. It's non-sensical.

If neither of these guys had their handy guns, no one would have likely died. In this respect, America is an uncivilized nation. There are just too many guns, including weapons meant for war. Too many guns, too many unnecessary deaths. This is a uniquely American phenomenon.

 

[Raptorman]

This is America. Along with legalizing the right of citizens to own guns (actually the 2nd amendment says no such thing, but we've passed the point of no return), it's now almost a requirement to own a gun to defend against others who carry guns. It's non-sensical.

If neither of these guys had their handy guns, no one would have likely died. In this respect, America is an uncivilized nation. There are just too many guns, including weapons meant for war. Too many guns, too many unnecessary deaths. This is a uniquely American phenomenon.

The 2nd says what it says. The problem is that people read it today using the language of today, not understanding that the language has changed over the years. The term "militia" means one thing today, but back then, it had a totally different meaning to those who wrote the words. This is why we have the Supreme Court to interpret what the Founding Fathers meant.
I wonder, since vehicle deaths are twice the number of gun deaths in the US. Shouldn't we be doing something to slow them down so people don't die in accidents? No one has the right to own a car.

 

[rmontro]

I wonder, since vehicle deaths are twice the number of gun deaths in the US. Shouldn't we be doing something to slow them down so people don't die in accidents? No one has the right to own a car.

People don't follow the speed limit now.

 

[Raptorman]

People don't follow the speed limit now.

Imagine that. People who drive cars don't follow the law. Just like some people with guns. Here's the thing: we can limit a car's speed easily. And think about it. You get your driver's license at age 16. And never have to test or prove yourself again. No matter how bad of a driver you are.

 

[OldSchool101]

Really? What makes you think the Packers' defense won't suck? They were one spot below MN. Why would they go backwards? And MN doesn't have to be much better. That's the whole point. They just have to be a little better or the same. They haven't lost any major players on Defense that would hurt them. They are in their third year with the same DC, who appears to be very good at his job. Wait, where did he learn defense from? Nah, he was in New England for 14 years; he has to suck.

You still avoided the question. 3rd try

Why is the Vikings Defense better than 2024?

 

[OldSchool101]

I wonder, since vehicle deaths are twice the number of gun deaths in the US. Shouldn't we be doing something to slow them down so people don't die in accidents? No one has the right to own a car.

I agree with you on much of that. Except I need to correct you on that last part.
Owning a vehicle and driving it are 2 separated things in our Law. As a matter of fact many people own vehicles they don’t drive. I’ve sold a vehicle to a blind person and it’s completely legal. You don’t even need to have a Drivers License to purchase a vehicle. Now don’t assume that because I’ve stated this that somehow implied that I agree with it. I’m just stating how the Law works in that department

It’s the Driving a vehicle part is what’s called “Privilege” or that meets your definition above. You don’t have a “Right to Drive”.

 

[Raptorman]

You still avoided the question. 3rd try

Why is the Vikings Defense better than 2024?

3rd year with the same DC. Will they be better? I don't know, but tell me, why would they be worse?

 

[OldSchool101]

3rd year with the same DC. Will they be better? I don't know, but tell me, why would they be worse?

Thank you. I just wanted to know your thoughts overall wasn’t a setup at all. 3rd year DC makes some sense. Thought maybe I missed a player add or rising star etc,,

My thoughts were you guys appeared to bring in a good DT from Washington. Past that you went with more inexperience over players that had substantial playing time (on D). While young guys can offer Cap savings, it’s rare they outplay the loss of established veterans.

 

[Raptorman]

Thank you. I just wanted to know your thoughts overall wasn’t a setup at all. 3rd year DC makes some sense. Thought maybe I missed a player add or rising star etc,,

My thoughts were you guys appeared to bring in a good DT from Washington. Past that you went with more inexperience over players that had substantial playing time (on D). While young guys can offer Cap savings, it’s rare they outplay the loss of established veterans.

We shall see how Dallas Turner does. That may make a big difference in the defense. I don't make projections of how players will do for the year until those first few games are done. A lot of Vikings fans think we are short on good CB's. We shall see.

 

[milani]

The 2nd says what it says. The problem is that people read it today using the language of today, not understanding that the language has changed over the years. The term "militia" means one thing today, but back then, it had a totally different meaning to those who wrote the words. This is why we have the Supreme Court to interpret what the Founding Fathers meant.
I wonder, since vehicle deaths are twice the number of gun deaths in the US. Shouldn't we be doing something to slow them down so people don't die in accidents? No one has the right to own a

3rd year with the same DC. Will they be better? I don't know, but tell me, why would they be worse?

A lot of what will play into this is if the Viking offense will continue to push the ball up the field and put up points or will it leave their defense on the field more than last season.

 

[Raptorman]

A lot of what will play into this is if the Viking offense will continue to push the ball up the field and put up points or will it leave their defense on the field more than last season.

I always love it when people say stuff like this. See, it's never put the other way, the defense stopping the other team, giving the offense more chances with the ball. It's always the offense helping the defense, not the other way around.

 

[milani]

I always love it when people say stuff like this. See, it's never put the other way, the defense stopping the other team, giving the offense more chances with the ball. It's always the offense helping the defense, not the other way around.

Even a good or great defense can get worn down by having to play too much defense. It happens to many teams and it gets frustrating. Now forcing turnovers can put points on the board. But to beat the upper echelon like Philly, Buffalo, Baltimore, and KC you have to score points. Your D cannot do it entirely. I think of those 2006 Bears with a great D and special teams only to see Urlacher on the field most of the game while Grossman was on his headphone on the sideline.

 

[OldSchool101]

We shall see how Dallas Turner does. That may make a big difference in the defense. I don't make projections of how players will do for the year until those first few games are done. A lot of Vikings fans think we are short on good CB's. We shall see.

I see. Good CB’s are definitely in short supply, us Packer fans can attest to that.

 

[rmontro]

I always love it when people say stuff like this. See, it's never put the other way, the defense stopping the other team, giving the offense more chances with the ball. It's always the offense helping the defense, not the other way around.

I just talked about good defenses helping the offense, post #205 this thread.

 

[Rickusn]

Playoffs? With these roster additions from 2024 and the injuries it doesnt look like this roster is as good as last season. What do you think?

Now that we are closer to a final roster there are 15 new faces(compared to the 2024 initial 53 man roster). I took the Liberty of updating with the Neiman signing.
Is this roster an upgrade over 2024?
The 15 new faces and the players they replaced or nominally replaced:
RB Brooks - Lloyd inj
TE Fitzpatrick - OL Telfort
WR Golden- Watson inj
Williams inj- Melton
OL Banks inj- Myers
Belton- Dillard
Kinnard-Glover inj
Jennings- Monk inj
DT- Brinson- Slaton
Stackhouse- DE Mosby
DE- Sorrel inj- Smith
LB - Neiman- Wilson
CB-Hobbs inj- Alexander
Melton-Stokes
Hadden- Ballentine
K- McManus- Joseph
Of course Melton is a wash faces wise.
Also injured:
Reed
Wicks
Jenkins
Alexander
Mckinney
Love