Will The Packers Get To 13-3 In 2016?

[Deleted member 6794]

One good win against Detroit and everyone will be singing a much different tune next week.

Actually I'm afraid of that if the offense performs on a high level vs. a well below average defense like the Lions. The loss to the Vikings should serve as evidence that the unit needs a lot of improvement to be effective against a top notch defense.

 

[Mondio]

I said it during that game, that offense will bury lesser teams, and struggle mightily against the better teams. They need to be able to play that smaller game. 3-4 first downs, consistency, even if you punt, it's moves the chains. It changes field position, it gets the ball in everyone's hands, it makes everyone on offense better, you can set up plays by running plays.

Sure we might score in 5 plays on our first drive going big every play, we also get yards on 1 play zero on the rest and punt a lot too it seems. That works against teams that don't score much or have a defense that wont pressure you like a good team, but it makes it awfully tough against the good teams. Just think if we didn't start every drive on the 10 yard line (it seemed like anyway) last Sunday night? It's tough to win always backed up and the other team always starting near midfield, even without the rest of the stuff going on.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

Actually I'm afraid of that if the offense performs on a high level vs. a well below average defense like the Lions. The loss to the Vikings should serve as evidence that the unit needs a lot of improvement to be effective against a top notch defense.

I'm not thinking their D is all that much worse than last year's, at least in the secondary most the players there are back from last year, although their linebacking corp beatup might be an issue in TE coverage. I'd look at factors in this next game though such as are we getting fluid offensive drives instead of penalty-aided ones? Is Rodgers settling in or getting more happy feet? Those questions regardless of whether we win by a lot or by a few will be important going forward.

 

[PackAttack12]

Actually I'm afraid of that if the offense performs on a high level vs. a well below average defense like the Lions. The loss to the Vikings should serve as evidence that the unit needs a lot of improvement to be effective against a top notch defense.

Could have went for a field goal to tie the game in the 3rd, elected not to. Rodgers committed two turnovers on the last two possessions of the game, both in which we drove into Minnesota territory.

The overreaction to the Vikings game has just been comical. We should have won the football game. Uncharacteristic turnovers from Rodgers cost us an opportunity to score the go ahead TD. Or if McCarthy would have elected to kick the field goal, we would have been in position to kick the game winner.

I'm not going to expect us to hang 40 on every potent defense in the NFL.

 

[Half Empty]

Could have went for a field goal to tie the game in the 3rd, elected not to. Rodgers committed two turnovers on the last two possessions of the game, both in which we drove into Minnesota territory.

The overreaction to the Vikings game has just been comical. We should have won the football game. Uncharacteristic turnovers from Rodgers cost us an opportunity to score the go ahead TD. Or if McCarthy would have elected to kick the field goal, we would have been in position to kick the game winner.

I'm not going to expect us to hang 40 on every potent defense in the NFL.

Exactly, as in most of the playoffs losses. That's why some of us react badly - not that they'll miss the playoffs (possible, of course) but that they'll get there and lay another egg.

 

[Donjanfan59]

I'm thinking yes, we pull this off contingent on the following factors being true, which thus far at least a couple of them seem to be:

1. Jordy is running full speed by wk 1 with 0 setbacks at all to his injury, and from what I've heard there've been none.

2. Bryan Bulaga never misses a game in 2016 ... this might be more of a stretch to hope for but hey even he's due a bit of luck once in a while right?

3. Eddie Lacy comes into the season 100% in shape

All of these factors of course playing into a much better pre-2015 return of Aaron Rodgers to the Rodgers we all know, plus hopeful contributions to that cause being adding Jared Cook, Adams hopefully losing his dropsies, and hopefully a more front-running role for Jeff Janis this next year with James Jones having moved on. And of course the defense's improvement over last year being real.

I also feel our opponents this year are mostly easy enough for us to get those wins.

I think division-wise we can go 5-1 there because Detroit and Chicago are both in trouble with Megatron retired, Matt Forte and Martellus Bennet gone, and the Bears also having to deal with an inexperienced offensive coordinator trying to keep Cutler's ship from crashing. Minny's still our toughest competition to win the division as far as I'd say, I think we'll end up splitting the series with them.

We should be able to sweep the AFC South, we got Indy here at home and match up well against them, and everyone below them is just a mess the way it's looking.

Obviously as far as the rest go, Seattle as usual, will not be easy, but they may be forced to rely more on the passing game with Lynch gone, and they've also now lost LB Bruce Irvin and T Russell Okung, and it's in Lambeau again. Dallas gets Romo back, but coming off of breaking a collar bone 2x in one season and going to be 36 once this season gets underway, it's not just going to be all good in D-town just because he's back, plus the Cowboys got some other fish they gotta fry by the time this season gets underway. And for the Redskins, while history doesn't decide the NFL's future, very little within it suggests that they're going to win the NFC East again this year. Now of course after last year the way things shaped up, anything could happen between us and these opponents, but all 3 of these to me are the devils we all know and in my opinion, the most likely games we win in the non-divisional conference.

The biggest unknowns and probably the biggest challenges we got are Atlanta, New York, and Philly. Wouldn't surprise me if one or 2 of our losses came at the hands of these 3, but I don't think we'll lose to all 3 of them.

No my packers will not get to 13-3 and will not get to the super bowl as long as McCarthy is coaching STOP pointing the finger at the players it's COACHING not the players LOOK at the play calling, he is holding back one of the best quarter back with conservative plays.

 

[Donjanfan59]

McCarthy is a poor coach just because of 1 super bowl win that was the pass this is now let the pass GO.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Not sure if the stat is available, but would love to know what percent of the time a team scores a TD on a drive that at some point they opted to go for it on 4th down while in FG range. Not blaming the loss on MM going for it and not making it on 4th down, but seems to me when you are in a tight defensive game, you take the points (assuming the FG is made) when you can. Even if you do make the first down, this by no means guarantees a TD and could be followed by a turnover or.....a FG attempt. Obviously, in the situation against the Vikings MM was confident they could pick up the yardage, but I still would like to know the success rate of a TD being scored on the continued drive after such a decision is made.

As some have alluded to, the Packers pick up that first down, score a TD and win by 4, MM is now a "gutsy great coach" in some peoples minds.

 

[PackAttack12]

McCarthy is a poor coach just because of 1 super bowl win that was the pass this is now let the pass GO.

I'll say this.

If the Packers are able to lock down the #1 seed in the NFC, with Seattle, Arizona, and Carolina all looking like their teams have lost a step, and isn't able to at least GET to the Super Bowl, it might be time to explore other options. Losing another home game in the playoffs with the best quarterback in football, with the way our defense is looking right now, would simply be inexcusable.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

McCarthy is a poor coach just because of 1 super bowl win that was the pass this is now let the pass GO.

LOL....Players win games, coaches lose them? Is this what you are saying? Last I checked, there are 53 (ok, 52 on Sunday) players and lots of coaches, trainers, a GM, etc. that all can have some sort of impact on a game that is won or lost.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'll say this.

If the Packers are able to lock down the #1 seed in the NFC, with Seattle, Arizona, and Carolina all looking like their teams have lost a step, and isn't able to at least GET to the Super Bowl, it might be time to explore other options. Losing another home game in the playoffs with the best quarterback in football, with the way our defense is looking right now, would simply be inexcusable.

My guess is that after 2 weeks of the season, all those teams and their fan base are saying the same thing about the Packers. Don't get too far ahead, its a long season.

 

[PackerfaninCarolina]

LOL....Players win games, coaches lose them? Is this what you are saying? Last I checked, there are 53 (ok, 52 on Sunday) players and lots of coaches, trainers, a GM, etc. that all can have some sort of impact on a game that is won or lost.

I kinda find it funny that people bagged on Mike McCarthy for not going for 2 in the playoff game at AZ, yet now they're on his case because he went for it on 4th.

 

[Carl]

No my packers will not get to 13-3 and will not get to the super bowl as long as McCarthy is coaching STOP pointing the finger at the players it's COACHING not the players LOOK at the play calling, he is holding back one of the best quarter back with conservative plays.

Any examples of the poor plays you're talking about?

And I assume you didn't watch the game if you think the players did not have a role in the loss (looking at Rodgers and Randall specifically).

 

[Croak]

oh lol shut up with your circular crap. Fine, I committed to an answer and you wussy'd into making no decision for fear of being wrong.your like that kid on the playground who cant admit he lost.
relying on Rodgers lucky deep balls this year wont help the team.

Let's keep it civil.

 

[PackAttack12]

My guess is that after 2 weeks of the season, all those teams and their fan base are saying the same thing about the Packers. Don't get too far ahead, its a long season.

Just saying that if we get the #1 seed and only have to win 2 games to get to the Super Bowl, the expectation is going to be to get there. Period. We almost got there last year with a patchwork offense. No excuse this year if teams have to travel to Lambeau. And obviously assuming reasonable health.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I'm going to wait until this offense figures things out before I get too excited about a SB run in 2016, as well as that run going through Green Bay. For almost a year now, we have seen an offense that isn't even close to being scary or elite. During that time, we also saw a team that lost 2 home games to pretty weak teams (Bears and Lions) and then another one against the Vikings. Maybe what is wrong with this offense is thinking that they are "almost there" when in reality, they are not and won't be until they dig deep, and admit that they have a lot of work to do to actually live up to all of this potential that everyone has been talking about for over a year. The way they treated the preseason and the past 2 games, leads me to believe that the Packers are just a little too over confident of the idea that their "elite" offense will be stepping back on the field....next Sunday.

 

[Jmurray]

I don't put any stock in the schedule. It's based on winning percentages from the year before. Every season there will be teams expected to contend who flop and teams not much was expected fro who surprise.

totally agree with this. The Giants look much better this year. Don't be surprised if Dallas gives the Packers a tough game or Lord forbid - a home loss to another NFC team.

 

[Wynnebeck]

totally agree with this. The Giants look much better this year. Don't be surprised if Dallas gives the Packers a tough game or Lord forbid - a home loss to another NFC team.

I don't think my heart could take another early exit from home.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

I'm not thinking their D is all that much worse than last year's, at least in the secondary most the players there are back from last year, although their linebacking corp beatup might be an issue in TE coverage.

The Lions defense has struggled over the first two games both defending the pass and run. The Packers offense performing on a high level against Detroit won't make me believe the unit is past its struggles against good defenses.

The overreaction to the Vikings game has just been comical.

It seems like you haven't been following the Packers closely over the last year. The offense has been struggling for most of 14 consecutive games with the team going 6-8 over that span.

If it would have only been the Vikings game nobody should be overly concerned.

LOOK at the play calling, he is holding back one of the best quarter back with conservative plays.

Rodgers actually has to play more conservatively for the offense to get back on track.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

Not sure if the stat is available, but would love to know what percent of the time a team scores a TD on a drive that at some point they opted to go for it on 4th down while in FG range. Even if you do make the first down, this by no means guarantees a TD and could be followed by a turnover or.....a FG attempt. Obviously, in the situation against the Vikings MM was confident they could pick up the yardage, but I still would like to know the success rate of a TD being scored on the continued drive after such a decision is made.

NFL teams have gone for it on fourth down in field goal range (ball on opponent's 32 or closer to the end zone) a total of 208 times since the start of last season. 101 of those plays resulted in a first down (48.6%) with 71 of those drives ending with a touchdown (34.1%).

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

NFL teams have gone for it on fourth down in field goal range (ball on opponent's 32 or closer to the end zone) a total of 208 times since the start of last season. 101 of those plays resulted in a first down (48.6%) with 71 of those drives ending with a touchdown (34.1%).

Thanks for looking that up Captain and I am only on my first cup of coffee, so I could be thinking the stats through wrong, but if you only score a TD on an ave. of 34% of the time in that situation, wouldn't it make more sense to kick a field goal? I realize the entire calculation is lot more complicated then just that one number and probably increases as your position on the field on 4th down is closer to the end zone. While the results Sunday night could have gone either way and MM could have looked like a gutsy genius had the Packers converted and eventually scored the game winning touchdown, I'm trotting Crosby in and hopefully tying a close defensive game on the road in that situation.

 

[PackAttack12]

It seems like you haven't been following the Packers closely over the last year. The offense has been struggling for most of 14 consecutive games with the team going 6-8 over that span.

If it would have only been the Vikings game nobody should be overly concerned.

LOL. I have followed them very closely, and there is a difference in the struggles we are seeing right now and the struggles that we saw last season. Most of the problem right now is that Rodgers only got 2 preseason series before starting the regular season. He and Jordy aren't on the same page, communication as a whole isn't there (see the first game on multiple occasions against Jacksonville). And what I would consider a sub-standard running game partly due to play calling.

I'm telling you. All of this is going to look silly very soon once the team builds its cohesiveness. It's all about fine tuning right now. Again, we are going to be fine. It's Week 3 and we are 1-1 in 2 road games.

Relaaaaaax.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

LOL. I have followed them very closely, and there is a difference in the struggles we are seeing right now and the struggles that we saw last season. Most of the problem right now is that Rodgers only got 2 preseason series before starting the regular season. He and Jordy aren't on the same page, communication as a whole isn't there (see the first game on multiple occasions against Jacksonville). And what I would consider a sub-standard running game partly due to play calling.

I'm telling you. All of this is going to look silly very soon once the team builds its cohesiveness. It's all about fine tuning right now. Again, we are going to be fine. It's Week 3 and we are 1-1 in 2 road games.

Relaaaaaax.

Besides some injuries to the WR group last year, I really don't see how the offensive struggles we are seeing this year are much different then the ones we saw last year for a good portion of week 5 and on. Last year, we at least had the excuse of no Jordy, AR hurting and assorted injuries to various WR's. This year, 6 of 7 WR's are healthy, AR claims to be healthy and coming off of one of his best off season training regiments and they still have a dysfunctional passing attack. I truly hope its just rust, but seems to go deeper then that with a group that has been playing together long enough not to use that as an excuse.

 

[PackAttack12]

Besides some injuries to the WR group last year, I really don't see how the offensive struggles we are seeing this year are much different then the ones we saw last year for a good portion of week 5 and on. Last year, we at least had the excuse of no Jordy, AR hurting and assorted injuries to various WR's. This year, 6 of 7 WR's are healthy, AR claims to be healthy and coming off of one of his best off season training regiments and they still have a dysfunctional passing attack. I truly hope its just rust, but seems to go deeper then that with a group that has been playing together long enough not to use that as an excuse.

Yeah I mean in theory, things should be clicking right now. And I know these guys have played together for a long time, but the miscommunications on the field from the offensive line picking up Rodgers' calls wrong (or vice versa) cannot be ignored. Rodgers and Jordy clearly aren't on the same page, we have seen several instances of that in the first two games, and I know that some have tried arguing with me about this, but I still maintain that the running game is not providing enough production to take the pressure off of Rodgers and the passing game.

There was one poster who told me that in order to have a good running game, you have to keep running and not abandon it. And I will agree that we have to have a much better mix of pass and run. And McCarthy acknowledged as much this week.

Hell you have Jared Cook catching a ball that should have been a first down, and ran back behind the marker. Drive stalled. It's little things like this that will be cleaned up, but are making a huge difference right now.

Rodgers only getting two series with the starters (and not Jordy) in the preseason is a big problem. They are pretty much getting some preseason snaps right now.

And then to top it all off, Rodgers turned the ball over two possessions in a row to close the game against the Vikings. How many times have you ever seen him do that?

Everything with this team right now is fixable. Last season, it wasn't.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Everything with this team right now is fixable. Last season, it wasn't.

You had me until this. Last season it was fixable too, it just never was fixed. The things you ran down as mistakes are pretty much the same things that were being said last year about the offense. That is what worries me. This isn't one or two games with a few mental mistakes here and there, its game after game of inconsistent play by AR and the receiving corp. and is even more pronounced against quality defenses. Sure, it would be nice to have a running attack to open the passing game up, but that isn't how this offense is designed. The passing game is suppose to open up the running game.