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What was the impact play of the game

Discussion in 'Packer Fan Forum' started by melvin dangerr, Nov 24, 2013.

  1. melvin dangerr

    melvin dangerr Cheesehead

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    My impact play, was Toby Gerhart, I thought A P was on the side lines, clearly their run game was a major factor in a Packer loss, I say this because this was clearly a game the packers could and should have WON...
     
  2. thisisnate

    thisisnate Cheesehead

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    Live it up tonight, Toby, that was probably the pinnacle of your career.
     
  3. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    The impact play of the game was MM foolishly going for 2. I hate the two point conversion. The only time the 2 point conversion should be used is VERY late in the game when you absolutely need it to tie, need 2 to give you a 3 or 7 point lead or need 2 to pull within in 3 or 7. Going for 2 because you need 2 TD's and 2 two point conversions is a horribly low percentage chance and you have a high chance of taking points off the board that that could have helped you win the game.

    2 point conversion percentage is generally around 50% throughout a year. It is not a good play unless you absolutely need it late in the game. Case in point, when Lacy scored the TD in 4th to pull within 10 I was pretty much talking to the TV begging for McCarthy to kick the extra point. The chances of scoring 2 TD's and converting 2 two point conversions to tie the game are slim to none and if you miss then you still need to kick a FG and score another TD just to tie the game.

    Those same 2 TD's and a field goal would have won the game, don't get me wrong, I completely understand the thought process of why he went for 2 but I completely disagree with the conclusion of the thought process. If you are pinning your hopes on 2 TD's and 2 two point conversions to tie a game, they you are pinning your hopes on a play that is coin toss at best.

    Had the Pack kicked the extra point, we win 24 to 23 in regulation.
     
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  4. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    I am okay with the 2pt and so were Wayne and Larry on Packers radio..

    You dont go for two, but make the xp score is 23-14..... 9 points behind with 10 mins to go? So its a 2 possession game Going for 2 and making it, score is 23-15 only one td and a 2 pt....One possession game, not two


    I didnt like the pass as Lacy was hot, would have liked to see him get it..

    At that time you had issues all game stopping them and scoring..so go for 2 to make it a one possession game..We make the 2pt we win with out over time
     
  5. weeds

    weeds Cheesehead

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    The PI or holding call on the kid covering Jordy that kept the tying drive going.
     
  6. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    What? We had absolutely 0% chance of winning without over time with a made 2 point conversion. They needed TWO 2 point conversions to tie the game which means they would have needed a FG as well to win the game without overtime, which is exactly what you need to win the game without overtime anyway.

    I don't care what Packer radio said, they are wrong, it was the wrong call based purely on percentages. Just read what I posted, had they simply kicked the extra point, we win 24-23 in regulation. Period.

    Edit: I apologize for sounding snotty here, I just really do not understand how anyone can think pinning your hopes on 2 TD's and 2 Two point conversions is the right call. The chances of that succeeding are incredibly minuscule?
     
  7. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    23-15 (with made 2 pt)

    Then the Boykin score makes it 23-22 (it was 23-20 with the missed 2 pt)


    Crosby fg with 1 min left 23-25 (if we made that 2 pt)

    We win...

    Or am I really missing something?
     
  8. 2411t

    2411t Cheesehead

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    I think I understand what you are trying to get at; win the game. However, when you are down by 16, your main objective should be to tie the game, and the quickest way (remember, time was not on our side) was two 8 point drives
     
  9. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    What you are saying is we win with the FG had we converted a 2 point conversion but the problem is we win the FG if we just kick the 2 extra points? We did not need the extra point a two point conversion would give. 24-23 wins you the game just as much as 25-23 wins you wins you the game.
     
  10. Pat4DaPack

    Pat4DaPack Cheesehead

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    When Flynn stepped on the field for the first time.
     
  11. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    I understand all of that as well, however I also understand the the chances of converting two 2 point conversions in the same game, in the 4th quarter are no greater than the chances of getting 2 TD's and FG.

    And I think I have pointed out the math pretty clearly:

    Lacy's TD with the xtra point = 23-14

    Boykin's TD with xtra point = 23-21

    FG = 24-23 pack wins

    compared to:

    Lacy's TD with 2 points (which is a coin toss at best) = 23-15

    Boykin's TD with 2 points (which is a huge if) = 23-23

    So you basing your game on A. a coin toss combined with a B. an astronomically low percentage of getting a 2nd 2 pt conversion just to tie.

    When you would have used the highest scoring percentage play in all of football at all opportunities, you win the game
     
  12. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    And just for the record, this conversation is precisely why I hate the 2 point conversion, it is over analyzed and so often improperly used or not used.
     
  13. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Kick the xp and score is 23-14 still need two possessions to take the lead...A td and a FG..At the time we couldnt score, and couldnt stop them..Go for 2 pt and make, and technically you only need one possession to tie the game

    That is how I was looking at it at the time and that is what Wayne and Larry said too..

    But it didnt matter as they missed it...

    Hindsight sucks because yeah, with only doing the xp they do win the game..But you cant play thinking that way..You need to think about what the situation was at the exact moment.
     
  14. 2411t

    2411t Cheesehead

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    What about time? Here, you seem to be really confident in our defense stopping MIN from running the clock. In hindsight, they obviously did, but they were absolutely rolling. 500 yards of total offense someone posted?

    And if MIN did get a few 1st downs, that FG that you propose to win the game doesn't even happen.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2013
  15. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    Okay, I understand everything you guys are pointing out about time and defense and all of that. I really do. What you guys and apparently the radio guys are not seeming to understand (or agree with) is that relying on multiple 2 point conversions in the same game is absolutely not better percentage chance than relying on 2 xtra points and a FG. So if all things are equal why would you not take the higher percentage chance of making an xtra point than 2 point conversion?

    The bottom line is if you cannot rely on your team to do what it has to do to win, than you are relying on the pure luck that you will be able to convert two 2 point conversions in one game.

    Again, this exact conversation is why I hate the 2 point conversion. People will just go round and round on it and I truly believe it is completely misunderstood.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2013
  16. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Yes making 2 , two pts is hard..Some may say impossible..

    but when you are in that situation you have to explore the options with least amount of possessions to win or tie..

    You cant go into thinking, well we will have the ball 2 more times to win or tie..Can you really do that?
     
  17. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    In my honest opinion, yes you can and you should. When Lacy scored there was 10:58 left on the clock. 10:58!!!!

    That is an eternity in the NFL and is kind of my key point here. With 8 or less minutes left in the game, my tune completely changes about going for 2 but with 11 freaking minutes left in the game that is more than enough time for a team to score another TD and a FG.

    Anyway, I do understand your points but at this point I think we will just have to chalk this up to a agree to disagree conversation as I don't believe either of us is going to chance the others mind! :cool:
     
  18. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    Im okay with your way too..Not trying to change your mind at all...

    I just wanted to make sure I clarified my thinking
     
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  19. Ogsponge

    Ogsponge Cheesehead

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    cool beans, I know we were actually just having a good debate about this which can be nearly as fun as watching the game. :D
     
  20. longtimefan

    longtimefan Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

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    And I will agree that the 2pt play could be the impact play of the game
     

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