Trade Watson?

[OldSchool101]

I’m actually looking at our WR Room and pretty’s stoked. Good chance Brian uses that RD5 #153 on a different position altogether. We’ve been pretty successful signing players in that #150 overall area and getting nice production on the cheap. Kinda makes up for some RD3 misses along the way.

We might not even use #153 at WR. In my interactive Mocks I’ve been toying with moving into RD4 by packaging that pair of Draft selections and getting a Penn State RB. Several times I’ve had a True Center like Brailsford fall to us. I sure would like to know we are not relying Jacob Monk as our backup.

Watson is a near Lock to get a contract now. I’d LOVE to nab someone like Bryce Lance and pair those guys. Don’t count out Brian to be thinking MAJOR upgrade at WR

 

[OldSchool101]

The other idea would be if we were able to land Ted Hurst anywhere in that top #45-#52 area? (Reasonable trade up) What would Watson bring in trade before deadline?

 

[milani]

The other idea would be if we were able to land Ted Hurst anywhere in that top #45-#52 area? (Reasonable trade up) What would Watson bring in trade before deadline?

Lot of scenarios. If they extend him soon his price is less than later. If they do nothing and he gets hurt again 4 games into the season his trade value goes down. Tough one for Gute. You do not want to turn over an entire receiving corps in one year. That would be a step backward and the chemistry achieved over the last 3 years is gone. It would take another 2-3 years to develop a new receiving corps. At the same time Watson gets hurt consistently. What reason is there to believe he can make it through another season unscathed.
I still believe Gute has no intention of trading him now or later unless the Packers fall out of the race by mid-season and start a rebuild.

 

[OldSchool101]

Lot of scenarios. If they extend him soon his price is less than later. If they do nothing and he gets hurt again 4 games into the season his trade value goes down. Tough one for Gute. You do not want to turn over an entire receiving corps in one year. That would be a step backward and the chemistry achieved over the last 3 years is gone. It would take another 2-3 years to develop a new receiving corps. At the same time Watson gets hurt consistently. What reason is there to believe he can make it through another season unscathed.
I still believe Gute has no intention of trading him now or later unless the Packers fall out of the race by mid-season and start a rebuild.

Well I think that makes sense after walking Doubs and trading Wicks.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Wicks just extended on a one year deal for over 10 million. If he'd of had a productive 2026, a bigger deal would've been likely in free agency getting him in the fifth round comp pick range.

With Philly, you're probably looking at a late 5th round pick. Not a lot of value there and similar to a fifth round comp. Basically, the Packers forego a season of Wicks being a very valuable depth player and get very little in return. Maybe he doesn't attract a higher pick but they lose a season from him and get peanuts.

Late picks aren't that much different than an udfa. The chances that you pick up a valuable player is slim. You can throw late picks and udfa in the same hopper. The Packers have done a great job in finding some useful players as undrafted free agents. That makes those late round picks less necessary.

You still don't seem to understand the terms of the trade, as well as how Compensatory picks are calculated and given. I've tried to explain it, but you just keep repeating the same thing....in your opinion... "The Packers decisions suck." Seems to be your narrative for most Packer decisions, but hey, whatever gets you through the day.

 

[Magooch]

I liked Wicks, but at the same time the bottom line is that he isn't a needle-mover for me.

By this time next year I very, very, VERY much doubt any of us will be discussing how the 26/27 season would've gone differently if we'd just kept Wicks for an extra year. Maybe there is a case to be made that trading Wicks is a marginal downgrade at the moment but I seriously doubt it will end up having any kind of significant/appreciable negative impact when it comes to our bottom line and overall season-long goals

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I liked Wicks, but at the same time the bottom line is that he isn't a needle-mover for me.

By this time next year I very, very, VERY much doubt any of us will be discussing how the 26/27 season would've gone differently if we'd just kept Wicks for an extra year. Maybe there is a case to be made that trading Wicks is a marginal downgrade at the moment but I seriously doubt it will end up having any kind of significant/appreciable negative impact when it comes to our bottom line and overall season-long goals

Agree. It isn't often that you pick up a 5th and a 7th rounder for a guy that is 4th or 5th on your depth chart and only has 1 year left on his rookie contract. Philly must really like Wicks potential to give up that much draft capital and to immediately extend Wicks with a $12.5M deal 1 year prove it deal.

Given the Packers depth chart and Wicks only being under contract for 1 year, I think Gute did well in the trade. I would even go as far to say that the pick(s) that we obtained from Philly for Wicks, have a higher potential to be more impactful in the long run, than keeping Wicks would have.

 

[gopkrs]

I liked Wicks, but at the same time the bottom line is that he isn't a needle-mover for me.

By this time next year I very, very, VERY much doubt any of us will be discussing how the 26/27 season would've gone differently if we'd just kept Wicks for an extra year. Maybe there is a case to be made that trading Wicks is a marginal downgrade at the moment but I seriously doubt it will end up having any kind of significant/appreciable negative impact when it comes to our bottom line and overall season-long goals

Yeah. I agree with you. We just won't KNOW if it was a good trade until after the season imho.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

Yeah. I agree with you. We just won't KNOW if it was a good trade until after the season imho.

Even then we won't really know, but we will have more information. That information is what the Packers did with the 5th round pick and what Wicks did with the Eagles. Also, keep in mind that we really won't know what Wicks would have done as a Packer in 2026. He could have been injured and a non-factor or he could have had a breakout Pro Bowl career or something in-between.

I have to think that Gute and the coaches didn't see starting potential in Wicks. Had they, with Watson, Reed and Moore all having expiring contracts, they would have done more to keep him in GB.

Another wildcard in this whole thing is this and one we may never know the answer to. MLF mentioned in a recent presser that some guys weren't happy in their roles on the team in 2025. Maybe Wicks was one of those guys? Maybe he was unhappy at not seeing more playing time? Maybe he requested a trade and the Packers fulfilled his request.

 

[El Guapo]

I think the key is to separate the evaluation of the deal from how it ultimately ends up. The evaluation of the deal is that we traded a former 5th round pick who wasn't providing much, and in return got a 2026 5th round pick, a 2027 6th round pick, and cleared over $3M of cap space. To me that's a solid B+ to A- move. You don't get a lot of "do over" opportunities in the NFL but Gutekunst engineered it.

How Wicks does with the Eagles and what we do with those picks is a separate but related issue.

 

[milani]

I liked Wicks, but at the same time the bottom line is that he isn't a needle-mover for me.

By this time next year I very, very, VERY much doubt any of us will be discussing how the 26/27 season would've gone differently if we'd just kept Wicks for an extra year. Maybe there is a case to be made that trading Wicks is a marginal downgrade at the moment but I seriously doubt it will end up having any kind of significant/appreciable negative impact when it comes to our bottom line and overall season-long goals

Among Wicks, Reed, Doubs, Watson, and Golden, none of them were used as Go To Guys like Davante or Jordy or Sterling Sharpe. Had Rodgers been a Packer the last 3 seasons he likely tests them and chooses his main aorta. But the current offense is by committee. Had one of those 5 been a heavy target any of them could have had the opportunity to be a franchise player similar to a Justin Jefferson, a Kupp, or a Nacua.

 

[OldSchool101]

I think the key is to separate the evaluation of the deal from how it ultimately ends up. The evaluation of the deal is that we traded a former 5th round pick who wasn't providing much, and in return got a 2026 5th round pick, a 2027 6th round pick, and cleared over $3M of cap space. To me that's a solid B+ to A- move. You don't get a lot of "do over" opportunities in the NFL but Gutekunst engineered it.

How Wicks does with the Eagles and what we do with those picks is a separate but related issue.

That’s another good point.

We silently picked up around $3Mil over what that top 51 player would make (<$900K). So we could technicslly apply that $$ saved. He basically just paid Benjamin Juste’s guaranteed.

So in 2026 you’d really have to compare Wicks against BOTH Juste
+ #153 overall

Then past 2026 to make future comparisons it’s not only another 6th Round draft player. It’s both 153 + a 2027, 6th Rounder + Juste (or whichever player we retain the equals Wicks Cap hit off that $12.5Mil extension )

 

[El Guapo]

That’s another good point.

Happy to help

 

[Sanguine camper]

It's pick #153 in the 5th Rd, the 13th pick in Rd 5, which is better than our own #160. They got #153 from Atlanta.

Between 2020 and 2024 the Packers hsd 24 5th round picks. I would say 6 of those guys were good to great players that include Micah Hyde, Aaron Jones, MVS and Corey Lindsley. It appears thst TT was an even better drafter in the fifth round that Gute who has Wicks and Enagbar to his credit. Judging from that longer term draft history, the Packers have about a 1 in 4 chance in drafting a good player in the fifth round.

Is that chance worth dumping Wicks to a team that recently owns the Packers?

 

[Sanguine camper]

You still don't seem to understand the terms of the trade, as well as how Compensatory picks are calculated and given. I've tried to explain it, but you just keep repeating the same thing....in your opinion... "The Packers decisions suck." Seems to be your narrative for most Packer decisions, but hey, whatever gets you through the day.

I understand comp picks depend on whether the Packers pick up free agents. I'm assuming they won't go hog wild in free agency because they have big contract extensions coming up. Both TT and Gute have a proven history of coveting comp picks and not passing up many opportunities with excessive free agent signings.

 

[gopkrs]

I understand comp picks depend on whether the Packers pick up free agents. I'm assuming they won't go hog wild in free agency because they have big contract extensions coming up. Both TT and Gute have a proven history of coveting comp picks and not passing up many opportunities with excessive free agent signings.

I hope I'm not wrong. But signing players after this year's draft won't affect next year's comp picks.

 

[DoURant]

I hope I'm not wrong. But signing players after this year's draft won't affect next year's comp picks.

That is correct

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I understand comp picks depend on whether the Packers pick up free agents. I'm assuming they won't go hog wild in free agency because they have big contract extensions coming up. Both TT and Gute have a proven history of coveting comp picks and not passing up many opportunities with excessive free agent signings.

I would disagree on comparing Gute and TT in regards to the signing of big free agents. TT was more of a bargain hunter, Gute isn't afraid to spend big bucks on high end free agents.

Gute does an excellent job of juggling his resigns and signing of big contracted free agents, while keeping an eye on the cap, needs and future compensatory picks.

In 2027 the Packers are predicted to have quite a bit of cap space. So if they decide to resign their 4 biggest potential free agents, Kraft, Watson, Reed and Wyatt, they can do so, and the cap hits will probably be pretty low in the first 1-2 years of their contracts. If that is the strategy Gute uses, that will leave him cap space for the signing of a few "big" free agents and he won't need to worry about 2028 comp picks, since the Packers won't be loosing any "large contracted players" to free agency.

 

[Sanguine camper]

I hope I'm not wrong. But signing players after this year's draft won't affect next year's comp picks.

That's true. Comp picks are canceled out by signing free agents of a similar salary in the same season.

 

[tynimiller]

That's true. Comp picks are canceled out by signing free agents of a similar salary in the same season.

No, he is commenting on the fact that as of the first Tuesday after the conclusion of the draft all sigend Free Agents are no longer factored into the compensatory picks formula.

 

[gopkrs]

No, he is commenting on the fact that as of the first Tuesday after the conclusion of the draft all sigend Free Agents are no longer factored into the compensatory picks formula.

Of that coming year

 

[OldSchool101]

Between 2020 and 2024 the Packers hsd 24 5th round picks. I would say 6 of those guys were good to great players that include Micah Hyde, Aaron Jones, MVS and Corey Lindsley. It appears thst TT was an even better drafter in the fifth round that Gute who has Wicks and Enagbar to his credit. Judging from that longer term draft history, the Packers have about a 1 in 4 chance in drafting a good player in the fifth round.

Is that chance worth dumping Wicks to a team that recently owns the Packers?

Obviously we didn’t have 24 RD5 players in 5 drafts. I’ll assume you meant since our last SB or something like that?
Anyway, I’ve got arguably 5 out of the last 13 that BRIAN drafted (not including 2025).
Enagbare 4 years
JK Scott 3 yrs
Kingsley Keke 3 Yrs
Dontavion Wicks 3yrs
MVS 4yrs
That’s a 38.5% hit rate under this GM.

The other thing we’re ignoring here is GB is not required to replace Wicks using a #153. The draft gives flexibility to draft according to NEED. As of this minute? Our WR6 is Bo Melton. So technically? We don’t even need to draft a WR.

The other major point you’re not accounting for? Wicks wanted a contract because he saw what was next. Call it assurances. He received a $12.5Mil extension and he guarantees his 2026 $3.6Mil in doing so. He had like $75k? Guaranteed going into Camp. So technically we’re going to pay someone on Roster. We got $2.6Mil+ added to cap + #153 + RD6 2027. Instead of a $3.75Mil to $16.3MIL commitment for 2yrs.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

No, he is commenting on the fact that as of the first Tuesday after the conclusion of the draft all sigend Free Agents are no longer factored into the compensatory picks formula.

Yup and its a pretty "simple" rule on the time period, not sure why folks don't understand it.

Compensatory picks are calculated off of the free agents (CFA's) you lose (don't resign) after the start of the new league year and those free agents (CFA's) other teams lost (not cut), that you sign, up until the first Monday after the NFL Draft.

So any free agents that the Packers sign on 4/28 or after, don't count against any potential 2027 comp. picks for the Packers.

 

[Sanguine camper]

No, he is commenting on the fact that as of the first Tuesday after the conclusion of the draft all sigend Free Agents are no longer factored into the compensatory picks formula.

By that time, the free agent pool isn't empty but it does resemble the kiddie pool. Most of the higher priced guys are gone before the draft. Gute has signed a few late guys but most of the action is in March.

 

[tynimiller]

By that time, the free agent pool isn't empty but it does resemble the kiddie pool. Most of the higher priced guys are gone before the draft. Gute has signed a few late guys but most of the action is in March.

Most of the FA signings stall and are done few weeks before the draft, teams look to see what happens there before moving on to again a few UFAs they like but not quite enough to comitt to prior to the draft.