Trade Watson?

[OldSchool101]

I don't think those two immediately impact each other. TEs are cheap by comparison, even though Kraft has an argument that he should be paid top 5 for the position.

All that said, if you had to chose, I'm not sure it's as easy as you think. We have those handy stats about how much better Watson is when he is on the field, even when not targeted. I'd need to see those same stats for Kraft before I pick.

I do know this much is factual. In the 7 games Kraft was healthy and finished across 2025 , he was pacing:
1,136 yards; 15 TD’s and 3.0 1st Downs per contest. All 3 figures would beat Christian Watson’s best career pace of 1,039 yards; 10 TD’s and 2.8 1st downs per contest (2025)


Kraft (2025) was pacing both a Probowl Nod and All Pro-2 or possibly All Pro-1 barely behind Trey McBride 1,236 yards and 11 TD’s. Does Watson’s presence on the field surpass the 5 additional TD’s across a season Kraft would give us? I don’t know that answer, yet I think that’s it’s hard to quantify Watson’s presence surpassing 5 TD’s and 100 yards of additional Offense.

Both logged identical 1 Rush for 3 yds.
Tucker had 15 Teams snaps to Christians 1 snap.

For me, the argument between Kraft and Watson is close enough it would have to factor cost $$ of the contract.

 

[El Guapo]

What Kraft was starting to do was figure out how to be consistently really good. He wasn't there yet, but was starting to do it more regularly. Watson is in that same category of being really good when available.

Both have availability issues.

 

[AKCheese]

Kraft had a great half a season. That doesnt make you a top 5 TE. Maybe top 12? likewise much as I like Watson He’s maybe somewhere around #20-25? Nothing you throw the checkbook at.

 

[tynimiller]

Kraft had a great half a season. That doesnt make you a top 5 TE. Maybe top 12? likewise much as I like Watson He’s maybe somewhere around #20-25? Nothing you throw the checkbook at.

You don't pay compared to the past market sets, you pay to the now. That's why Christian Kirk got what he did at the time or a guy like Lazard or MVS getting as much as they did they left. When Watson signs he likely will be "Paid top 10" that doesn't mean he is top 10 yet, that is just the market for his caliber of a guy. Kraft very well might set the TE market depending on other signings....nature of the contractual beast.

 

[milani]

Kraft had a great half a season. That doesnt make you a top 5 TE. Maybe top 12? likewise much as I like Watson He’s maybe somewhere around #20-25? Nothing you throw the checkbook at.

And a lot has to do with how and how often a team uses their TE.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Yes. As far as Marshawn, you hate to cut losses on a RD3 expenditure. Yet he’s nothing more than a bonus if he regains some health. As I’m sure you’d agree. we really can’t seriously plan on him to be anything past maybe a depth option at this point. IMO GB really has RB as their top 4 to 5 “needs”.
So in a perfect world you’d spend a RD5-6 pick there imo. We both know It won’t work that way though as each draft has segments of strength or weakness at each position. Then there’s just a luck factor of what positions go on a run and at what draft Round.
In a perfect world I’m going FA at CB as I don’t like the idea of relying on a Rookie CB just imo. That would also allow us to wait until Day 3 at CB or at least take some emphasis off the CB position and spotlight a DT or WR or RB etc.

Lloyd is a mystery. How can a guy who is not playing be injured for two seasons? i don't get it.

As for CB, if Gluten saw someone he liked he would have moved in the first wave of FA. As it is he picked up Juste, who looks like JAG.

So as of now, and depending on value, BPA considerations and on, I expect Gluten will take a CB at 352

All of Gute's lineman draft....you make it seem as if he went away from something for a while but really hasn't. I mean three players over 320 in all the years back the the Jaire draft...and one is Belton who settled in and started playing fairly solid guard play in his rookie season (way too soon to know what is there) and one of the others is a rookie as well just last year and a 7th. The only other guy over 320 is Sean Rhyan who is for sure not an elite guy but is an absolute starter in the NFL level...now he's gonna need to continue to grow or I hope is overcome by someone else, but still...I'm confused by at least how I'm taking your OL comments as not lining up with reality of who we have drafted.

Weights of the guys drafted:
336
322
311
308
317
321
304
313
310
310
312
306
303
313
310
313

Those numbers all look pretty consistent to me. It's hard - I think _ to find offensive linemen under 300 lbs in the NFL. I may be way off on that. It just seems that way to me.

It seems to me that Gluten has done well overall in the draft and FA obtaining OL guys. Banks might be an exception, but he'll be starting this year, and Guten isn't afraoid to cut his losses (see Hobbs).

I actually feel good that the starting OL is inn place already. Yeah Morgan has to prove he can play LT and I think he can. I'm looking for Belton to improve on a solid rookie year. And while Rhyan may not be Pro Bowl/All Pro material he does provide some much needed consistency at C.

Maybe it's just me but i like the starting OL. The challenge now is getting quality depth guys.

 

[Heyjoe4]

You don't pay compared to the past market sets, you pay to the now. That's why Christian Kirk got what he did at the time or a guy like Lazard or MVS getting as much as they did they left. When Watson signs he likely will be "Paid top 10" that doesn't mean he is top 10 yet, that is just the market for his caliber of a guy. Kraft very well might set the TE market depending on other signings....nature of the contractual beast.

Love is another example of a guy who got paid for what he would become, not what he accomplished up to that point. That said the Packers knew enough about him - over the course of four years with one year as the starter - to make that offer. When the time comes, I expect the same for Kraft and Watson.

 

[mradtke66]

I do know this much is factual. In the 7 games Kraft was healthy and finished across 2025 , he was pacing:
1,136 yards; 15 TD’s and 3.0 1st Downs per contest. All 3 figures would beat Christian Watson’s best career pace of 1,039 yards; 10 TD’s and 2.8 1st downs per contest (2025)

My point was less about stats and more about impact beyond catching the ball. We have stats demonstrating how much more efficient the offense is when Watson is on the field, regardless of being targeted. I was hoping someone had similar stats for Kraft.

For me, the argument between Kraft and Watson is close enough it would have to factor cost $$ of the contract.

Kind of a red herring. TEs are undervalued vs WRs. Kraft will be cheaper in almost ever reality.

Best play is still signing both, with the understanding that both are going to be very highly paid.

 

[Schultz]

So the offense is flat without watson .... But at the same time he is only worth a 3rd in trade???

He is a proven commodity. A #1wr on one of the best offenses in the NFL. 4.3, big tall fast strong..... You don't think a team would give their 1st for a plug in game changer wr like watson?

I mean if we are going to consider paying him $30m/yr, then obviously we value him that high.... Are we the only ones you're saying?

It only takes one team to believe he is worth it.

Miami is a good prospect. Hafley knows Watson is a star. Tyreek Hill turned his knee inside out last year.... They could use a bell cow wr that their new franchise QB is familiar with ... Even if they need that 1st rounder to rebuild. They'd still probably throw their caution to the wind and get willis his #1.

And Watson would be fantasy wr #1 I'd bet. Putting up huge numbers.

Even though I do not entirely share your opinion I do respect your opinion Mr. Watson.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

That's why Christian Kirk got what he did at the time or a guy like Lazard or MVS getting as much as they did they left.

I'll take "Who were 3 WR's that were totally overpaid due to over hopeful projections?" for $100 Alex.

 

[gopkrs]

My point was less about stats and more about impact beyond catching the ball. We have stats demonstrating how much more efficient the offense is when Watson is on the field, regardless of being targeted. I was hoping someone had similar stats for Kraft.

I don't think a TE can make DBs, corners, or linebackers adjust their play nearly as much as a guy like Watson. In fact, Watson probably does a lot for Kraft getting open while I doubt Kraft does much for getting Watson open. The defenders are already running with Watson.

 

[mradtke66]

I don't think a TE can make DBs, corners, or linebackers adjust their play nearly as much as a guy like Watson. In fact, Watson probably does a lot for Kraft getting open while I doubt Kraft does much for getting Watson open. The defenders are already running with Watson.

This is my suspicion, but I wasn't going to press it without evidence to back it up.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I don't think a TE can make DBs, corners, or linebackers adjust their play nearly as much as a guy like Watson. In fact, Watson probably does a lot for Kraft getting open while I doubt Kraft does much for getting Watson open. The defenders are already running with Watson.

While I agree with you as to who might be the better receiver of the 2, we have to look at the whole picture.

Kraft is a better asset in run blocking, as well as pass blocking (if needed). Which makes your offense much more rounded.

Finally, at least based on the conversations here, Kraft will probably cost the Packers a lot less money. Not to mention that currently, the Packers have no TE on the roster that comes even close to the level of play that Kraft offers.

 

[OldSchool101]

My point was less about stats and more about impact beyond catching the ball. We have stats demonstrating how much more efficient the offense is when Watson is on the field, regardless of being targeted. I was hoping someone had similar stats for Kraft.

For giggles though let’s explore that, is Watson more reliable than Kraft? No

Is Watson a better blocker than Kraft? Listen I’m the guy that lobbied for Watson and his blocking before he ever took an NFL snap. Yet a TE is used more often in blocking than an X Wideout. It’s just the way it is. Christian is great “for an X”. Yet if you needed to strengthen blocking on an NFL team you don’t go hire an X WR.

 

[gopkrs]

This is my suspicion, but I wasn't going to press it without evidence to back it up.

So everything has to have stats? I just don't believe that and neither do I believe that stats are really so straightforward

 

[mradtke66]

For giggles though let’s explore that, is Watson more reliable than Kraft? No

Is Watson a better blocker than Kraft? Listen I’m the guy that lobbied for Watson and his blocking before he ever took an NFL snap. Yet a TE is used more often in blocking than an X Wideout. It’s just the way it is.

Again though, that is not what I am saying.

Watson's presence on the field makes the offense more productive. Him being on the field increases our yard per carry. I doubt this is due to his run blocking, though it helps. It is more likely that he scares defenses more, so coverage is more often rolled his way. He "forces" more 2 deep shells. I have not seen equivalent evidence that Kraft has the same impact.

 

[gopkrs]

While I agree with you as to who might be the better receiver of the 2, we have to look at the whole picture.

Kraft is a better asset in run blocking, as well as pass blocking (if needed). Which makes your offense much more rounded.

Finally, at least based on the conversations here, Kraft will probably cost the Packers a lot less money. Not to mention that currently, the Packers have no TE on the roster that comes even close to the level of play that Kraft offers.

I wasn't saying anything about better or worse. I was just pointing out who opens up the defense more. But I do not agree with you that the less money you pay Kraft should be the deciding factor. I just don't pjace blocking high on the list. Especially because we are not a very good blocking team in general.

 

[mradtke66]

So everything has to have stats? I just don't believe that and neither do I believe that stats are really so straightforward

It doesn't have to be, but this is a fine case where we can have this evidence. We DO have stats that show the Packers offense is more better/efficient with Watson on the field. I'm curious if there are similar stats for Kraft. Things beyond his own catches/touchdowns, etc.

You and I seem to agree that Watson is valuable past his individual contributions. I'm reluctant to pound the table without evidence. I consider that basic debate responsibility/etiquette.

 

[OldSchool101]

Again though, that is not what I am saying.

Watson's presence on the field makes the offense more productive. Him being on the field increases our yard per carry. I doubt this is due to his run blocking, though it helps. It is more likely that he scares defenses more, so coverage is more often rolled his way. He "forces" more 2 deep shells. I have not seen equivalent evidence that Kraft has the same impact.

Show me the evidence. I showed you mine. Show us how much more yards per rush we picked up with Watson over Kraft. Show me how many more 2 high shells we got with Watson over a potential replacement? Use MVS or an equivalent X Wideout.

You are wanting to be “sold” but you really haven’t made any case for your opinion or argument. If we’re talking choosing 1 or the other, we lose Kraft. Show us why that’s a good move. I haven’t heard 1 concrete thing past “his presence alone” making him more reliable or valuable than Kraft. I gave you my argument but that’s not valuable because TD’s and yards are just “stats”.

I want proof of why you’d send an All Pro performing TE packing? I’m clearly not sold on 2-High jargon. Show me the evidence we get that much more 2-high. I’m not even sure that accurate at this point.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

I wasn't saying anything about better or worse. I was just pointing out who opens up the defense more. But I do not agree with you that the less money you pay Kraft should be the deciding factor. I just don't pjace blocking high on the list. Especially because we are not a very good blocking team in general.

It really isn't about "less money", but more about opportunity cost of of an investment in Watson. I have no doubt that it will cost a lot more cap money to sign Watson, than it will Kraft. Probably close to twice as much.

So for arguments sake, lets say you have $30M to spend and your choices are to give it all to Watson or give $15M to Kraft and the other $15M to another WR. Which package makes your offense better? While it could be better with just Watson, I'd bank on keeping Kraft and that $15M WR. That other $15M doesn't even have to be given to a WR, it could be on a CB, DE, etc.

Bottom line for me, that is a lot of cheddar to put into 1 player that is only being "projected" to be that valuable. Currently, I think Kraft is closer to being worth that $15M, while I don't view Watson as a $30M WR.

 

[mradtke66]

Show me the evidence. I showed you mine. Show us how much more yards per rush we picked up with Watson over Kraft. Show me how many more 2 high shells we got with Watson over a potential replacement? Use MVS or an equivalent X Wideout.

Once again, you are misinterpreting what I am saying. Or intentionally ignoring it.

When Watson is on the field, the offense is better. Evidence:

"Moreover, when Watson was on the field this year, the running game was 0.11 yards per play better and the passing game was 0.80 yards better." https://www.si.com/nfl/packers/onsi...t-card-grading-christian-watson-and-receivers
Random Short covering this:

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I am NOT saying Kraft does not have a similar impact, merely that I have not seen it. I would like to see it, should it exists.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

"Moreover, when Watson was on the field this year, the running game was 0.11 yards per play better and the passing game was 0.80 yards better."

How many games was that for? Opponents? Other variables including injury, conditions, etc.?

Sure, it is stats, but I would guess very limited and really not enough for me to let it sway me. Also, what would those stats look like with Kraft and a $15M/year WR playing?

 

[tynimiller]

I'll take "Who were 3 WR's that were totally overpaid due to over hopeful projections?" for $100 Alex.

Not really though, Kirk put up 1108 yards and 8 TDs that first year in Jax...averaged the same amount of yards per game before injury the next year and that injury slowed him down. He delivered for them, injuries stole it. He got paid top dollar and delivered in truth - which shocked the crap out of me.

I'd push back only on MVS...His structure was a one year and he and Ju-Ju were both brought in to serve as compliments to Kelce and they did. MVS put up 687 yards and Ju-Ju 933 yards that first year and it was never structured likely for longer.

Lazard did fail his contract 100%

 

[tynimiller]

Love is another example of a guy who got paid for what he would become, not what he accomplished up to that point. That said the Packers knew enough about him - over the course of four years with one year as the starter - to make that offer. When the time comes, I expect the same for Kraft and Watson.

I don't feel NFL does that a lot actualy. Love was a franchise QB whose contract was up - in this day and age if you are recognized as a Franchise QB and under 30 - you are going to be likley a top 3 paid QB when your contract's ink dries. I don't need to know anything other than that to say it.

 

[mradtke66]

How many games was that for?

Weeks 8-18 in 2025, 10 games, though the idea of rate stats is that it matters significantly less. His contribution here is obvious.

Opponents? Other variables including injury, conditions, etc.?

So here's the fun part--Watson didn't play 100% of the snaps on the games he did play in, fluctuating between 40 and 83 precent, depending on the week. This accounts for most/all of your concerns outside of down and distance

Sure, it is stats, but I would guess very limited and really not enough for me to let it sway me.

This sounds suspiciously like ignoring evidence because it is counter to your position.

Also, what would those stats look like with Kraft and a $15M/year WR playing?

Doubs signed for ~17M annually, thus it is easy to extrapolate. The offense would be about 0.11 yards per play worse in the running game and 0.80 yards worse in the passing game with a receiver of that quality.