The Point of the Draft Picks

[gopkrs]

Either it was a colossal mistake to extend Rodgers (what's the point if there's no desire to tailor the offense to his strengths) or it was a terrible decision to hire MLF as head coach.

Signing Rodgers was of course not a mistake. We want the best QB we can have. Because you think it is not tailored to his strengths, does not make it so. His scrambling abilities seemed to take a sharp hit last year. He will play best off of play action going forward. We had no idea we would be selecting a QB this draft and anyway, this new QB will benefit from sitting on the bench two or three years. Hopefully ARod can stay healthy.

 

[HardRightEdge]

It's all about Love. If he hits, it will have been a great draft almost regardless of everything else. If he flops, it will have been a terrible draft almost regardless of everything else.

All three of these guys are reaches and that means poor value.

Just looking at Dillon. When you talk about a 2nd. round running back needing to drop weight for better explosion (I see it more as quickness to the hole which might be the same thing), it's hard to see value. As for big play potential, he's a straight line, tunnel vision guy into the 3rd. level.

As a 2nd. round running back he should be ready-made to carry the rock within the system. Does this look like an outside zone runner to you? Not me. Maybe LaFleur reckons that's too hard to run with this O-Line. Whereas you might expect some clean-up on the receiving and pass blocking end of things ordinarily, I actually don't have a problem with his receiving. His few catches on tape shows a pretty natural catcher of the football.

Here's his game log from last season. See who he feasted on and who he didn't:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aj-dillon-1/gamelog/2019/

Now, might he make more hay than Williams in short yardage with our 3rd. round blocking H-back in front of him? I wouldn't doubt it. But you don't need a 2nd. round pick for that.

I have no problem taking a QB, a between the tackles power back or an H-back. Just not at these spots, and not these guys at these spots.

 

[Dantés]

1. All three of these guys are reaches and that means poor value.

Just looking at Dillon, when you talk about a 2nd. round running back needing to drop weight for better explosion (I see it more as quickness to the hole which might be the same thing), it's hard to see value. As for big play potential, he's a straight line, tunnel vision guy into the 3rd. level.

As a 2nd. round running back he should be ready-made to carry the rock within the system. 2. Does this look like an outside zone runner to you? Not me. Maybe LaFleur reckons that's too hard to run with this O-Line. Whereas you might expect some clean-up on the receiving and pass blocking end of things ordinarily, I actually don't have a problem with his receiving. His few catches on tape shows a pretty natural catcher of the football.

Here's his game log from last season. See who he feasted on and who he didn't:

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aj-dillon-1/gamelog/2019/

Now, might he make more hay than Williams in short yardage with our 3rd. round blocking H-back in front of him? I wouldn't doubt it. But you don't need a 2nd. round pick for that.

I have no problem taking a QB, a between the tackles power back or an H-back. Just not at these spots, and not these guys at these spots.

Based on what?

Uh... yeah. That's exactly what he is-- an inside/outside zone runner.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

How was Gute to know Rodgers level of play was going to drop off so quickly? Typically a QB of his level lasts another few years.
AR was one of the best of all times. We can argue about the degree, but I r hink all fans realize Rodgers' play has been dropping the last few years.


His draft so far is very Belichick like. Belichick is always looking for players that have a special trait. He will design even a few plays for a player to maximize that trait. All 3 of our picks have some very interesting traits.
Man, as I was reading all the posts above I was composing a comprehensive post. Your post is almost identical with all the same points. Well done!

Gute is garbage. Rodgers has fallen off for a simple reason- he has been terrible at talent acquisition

 

[elcid]

Gute is garbage. Rodgers has fallen off for a simple reason- he has been terrible at talent acquisition

I too am pissed on how this draft went, but you got to shoot straight man. Gute did excellent in the draft and FA last year. the year before was less successful, but at least he started taking chances, something that TT refused to do.

 

[HardRightEdge]

How was Gute to know Rodgers level of play was going to drop off so quickly? Typically a QB of his level lasts another few years.

Like many others, you're seeing only what you want to see.

Gutekunst converted $11 million of Rodgers roster bonus to signing bonus at the end of last December.

You don't pile dead cap on top of dead cap if you believe the QB is "dropping off quickly."

There is no plausible scenario where this team will turn the page on Rodgers until at least past 2022, a season where Rodgers is still sitting on $17 mil dead cap.

So, start over and think a little harder about the possible rationale. Here's a clue. For it to work out as planned Love will have to develop a lot faster than 3 years on the bench.

 

[HardRightEdge]

Uh... yeah. That's exactly what he is-- an inside/outside zone runner.

There is nothing to suggest that. But like I said earlier, I'm OK with it because I have no choice.

 

[Mondio]

Like many others, you're seeing only what you want to see.

Gutekunst converted $11 million of Rodgers roster bonus to signing bonus at the end of last December.

You don't pile dead cap on top of dead cap if you believe the QB is "dropping off quickly."

I've tried to make that point a couple times, but for some reason, this is only going to drive another offseason of talking heads trying to create a story of how Rodgers wants to do his own thing and GB is trying to replace him.

and I think they do, 3 years from now if they must, later if they don't have to. I think it's more likely they saw a QB they really liked and had an opportunity to get. It is the most important position on the field, It's not hard for me to see the logic in taking him. If he's not good, it's a waste, if he is, it's a good pick

 

[AmishMafia]

Gute is garbage. Rodgers has fallen off for a simple reason- he has been terrible at talent acquisition

No. Rodgers has fallen off because his skill set has fallen off. Actually watch a Packer game without your "AR is perfect" goggles on.

 

[Dantés]

There is nothing to suggest that. But like I said earlier, I'm OK with it because I have no choice.

His entire draft profile and his film shouts it loud and clear... he's a one cut runner who made hay in college on inside/outside zone.

 

[HardRightEdge]

I've tried to make that point a couple times, but for some reason, this is only going to drive another offseason of talking heads trying to create a story of how Rodgers wants to do his own thing and GB is trying to replace him.

and I think they do, 3 years from now if they must, later if they don't have to. I think it's more likely they saw a QB they really liked and had an opportunity to get. It is the most important position on the field, It's not hard for me to see the logic in taking him. If he's not good, it's a waste, if he is, it's a good pick

Like I always say, people like more than one reason to do what they do.

It's fairly obvious at this juncture that while some of may have perceived his bargain free agent pickups and bringing back all those restricted free agents (which can be cut of course) as stop-gaps, with some obvious need to juice up the receiving corp, Gutekunst sees those pick-ups as sufficient to win and proceded to back and fill secondary concerns.

So, if you think you've got your ducks in a row already you might want to think about an injury back-up for your franchise QB. He may not be ready in 2020 to carry the team for a few games, expecially with what is likely to be a shortended camp, but he d*mn well better be ready by 2021. Whether that's the primary reason or secondary to long-term upside, I could not say. Those things tend to get melded in the decision process.

 

[Mondio]

No. Rodgers has fallen off because his skill set has fallen off. Actually watch a Packer game without your "AR is perfect" goggles on.

I think it's part of it, but a smaller part. There is some decreased mobility, though I'd say he slides around in the pocket to set up blockers while keeping eyes downfield is still very good. I think the larger part is some not being able to just see and operate because there were moving parts that couldn't operate. So he'd see, then 2nd guess and that makes things look poor and function very haphazardly overall. He showed me he can still make all the throws and function at a very high level for me to believe it's eroding skills that are the main culprit in all of this.

 

[HardRightEdge]

His entire draft profile and his film shouts it loud and clear... he's a one cut runner who made hay in college on inside/outside zone.

He made hay between the tackles.

 

[Dantés]

He made hay between the tackles.

He's a one cut runner who ran inside zone, outside zone, split zone in college. What are you even talking about?

 

[AmishMafia]

Like many others, you're seeing only what you want to see.

Gutekunst converted $11 million of Rodgers roster bonus to signing bonus at the end of last December.

You don't pile dead cap on top of dead cap if you believe the QB is "dropping off quickly."

There is no plausible scenario where this team will turn the page on Rodgers until at least past 2022, a season where Rodgers is still sitting on $17 mil dead cap.

So, start over and think a little harder about the possible rationale. Here's a clue. For it to work out as planned Love will have to develop a lot faster than 3 years on the bench.

Fair point.

 

[Deleted member 6794]

1. I'm going to need you to explain that.

It should be pretty easy to understand. It doesn't make any sense for Gutekunst to extent Rodgers contract, paying him more than $30 million a season and then turn around and hire a head coach who has no interest in tailoring his offense to the quarterback's strenghts.

2. If (and please note that word-- I'm not saying this is a foregone conclusion) Dillon and Deguara allow LaFleur to more efficiently run the offense that he was hired to run, then they will have improved their chances. As I've said many times, the biggest issues on offense last year were not personnel related, but were a result of the scheme not being operated correctly.

It would be absolutely foolish for the Packers to run the same offensive scheme as the Titans did in 2018 while starting Mariota at quarterback while having a future HOFer in Rodgers playing the position.

3. And based on what exactly? There were a number of backs that the media projected to go later that went on day 2. Forget about making it to #175, Ke'Shawn Vaughn and Darrynton Evans were both gone before the Packers even picked in the 3rd round. Nine running backs went on day 2. The league liked these guys more than the media's projections. The Patriots also traded up into the 3rd to take Dalton Keene, who was the most comparable player to Deguara and was projected to go in the same range. Did no one tell BB that these guys "most like would have been available today?"

Let's be honest about it here for a moment. If the Bears would have been in the exact same situation than the Packers entering the draft and they did what Gutekunst did over the past two days we would be laughing our ***** off because of their incompetence. Unfortunately the joke is on us this time.

 

[Curly Calhoun]

I'm going to suggest a thought at to what Gutekunst is doing in this draft, and people can decide for themselves if they think I'm right. But right up front, this isn't a defense, it's a stab at an explanation. You could agree with what I think here and still think that this was a bad approach.

Gute is collecting the pieces that LaFleur wants/needs to run his offense

Greg Cosell was on with Ross Tucker today talking about the first round. He said that he believes Jordan Love to be an ideal fit (stylistically-- obviously we don't know yet if he will be good) for LaFleur's offense. He suggested that perhaps LaFleur was asking for an heir apparent who would do a more faithful job to run the offense as it was called, rather than ad lib or go off-script. I think that's a good guess at the motivation, as well as just the realities that Rodgers turns 37 this year and they must really like Love.

Before coming to Green Bay, LaFleur's offense really started to click in Tennessee when they got Derrick Henry rolling in the running game. The presence of a hulking, one cut runner with breakaway speed provided the foundation for the heavy play action offense that he wants to run. In terms of style, size, and athleticism, A.J. Dillon is as close to Henry as you will find anywhere. I am not saying he's as good-- I don't know that. But he is a shockingly close facsimile, who we can guess he wants to use in the same way.

One of LaFleur's "cousins" in his coaching family tree is Kyle Shanahan. Shanahan uses a fullback far more than normal in today's NFL. One of the ways he's so effective with it is by employing a guy, Kyle Juszczyk, who is a legitimate threat as a receiver, but who can also block the run. This allows him to run or pass effectively out of the same personnel, without subbing out and telegraphing run/pass to the defense. LaFleur tried to turn Vitale into that guy last year and it didn't work. He wasn't that good of a blocker and he didn't excel in his opportunities to win in the passing game. Josiah Deguara profiles to that role.

So again, I'm not telling anyone this is a great draft, a terrible draft, one they should be excited for, or one they should quit the Packers over. But it went off script early and has stayed that way and I think I know why they've made the decisions that they've made.

It seems to me the offense is being transformed into something most of us are not used to...A run-first offense. It seems strange.


That said, this of-season thus far:

The defensive line has not been upgraded.

The offensive line is likely a little worse (Wagner for Bulaga).

Inside linebacker has not really been addressed (Kirksley signing notwithstanding).

In a receiver-rich draft, that position has been ignored.

No new cornerbacks.



It's a head-scratcher.

 

[rdawsoniii]

My first 3 picks (all of whom were available when GB was on the clock):

1. Patrick Queen, ILB
2. Josh Jones, OT
3. Tyler Johnson, WR

All 3 address current, pressing needs. But what do I know?

 

[HardRightEdge]

He's a one cut runner who ran inside zone, outside zone, split zone in college. What are you even talking about?

Where are the outside zone runs where he turns the corner? I see eveything cut up inside. Maybe there's one against Richmond. The whole point of outside zone is to give the runner the option.

 

[Pokerbrat2000]

While I totally get the thought process that the Packers are presenting for all 3 picks thus far, I am confused at the message(s) that they are sending to their players, fans and media. This is a team coming off a 13-3 season and a trip to the NFCC game. The draft thus far feels like 1 of 2 things to me and I am hoping its the 2nd.

1. Gute and MLF have decided that they will not win it all with Rodgers at QB or at minimum, MLF needs different pieces to run the offense he wants to run and that doesn't include Rodgers running it or a heavy passing attack. So they have resigned themselves to begin building for the "post Rodgers era" and slowly work in the pieces they acquire between now and then and if that works for Rodgers, great, if it doesn't, they have a new QB.
2. The Roster we had before the draft was viewed as a solid complete roster, ready to compete for the Super Bowl. Relying on a few tweaks, the FA's signed and development as a whole. Because of this, the draft was viewed as a way to address 2021 needs and beyond.

Again, I would really like to believe #2, but it it was the case, Gute and MLF have a lot more confidence in the growth of the roster than I do.

 

[sjb12681]

Even if any of that is true Gutekunst committed a cardinal sin for a general manager no matter what.

Either it was a colossal mistake to extend Rodgers (what's the point if there's no desire to tailor the offense to his strengths) or it was a terrible decision to hire MLF as head coach.

In addition it seems like he forgot that the Packers were within one game of making it to the Super Bowl by not selecting any prospect to improve their chances for next year.

On top of that, both Dillon and Deguara most likely would have been available today.

I think that your last sentence should be where the angry posters stick:

The players themselves are not bad. They fit a vision of MLF offense he is attempting to create.

The value is my biggest issue at this point. Many of these players were much much lower grades than their draft pick.

If they liked these guys, they could have collected some additional picks and still got them. What I think we have seen is a GM/coach who has locked into their board, and now is drafting that board, regardless of the flow of the draft.

 

[Patriotplayer90]

It should be pretty easy to understand. It doesn't make any sense for Gutekunst to extent Rodgers contract, paying him more than $30 million a season and then turn around and hire a head coach who has no interest in tailoring his offense to the quarterback's strenghts.



It would be absolutely foolish for the Packers to run the same offensive scheme as the Titans did in 2018 while starting Mariota at quarterback while having a future HOFer in Rodgers playing the position.



Let's be honest about it here for a moment. If the Bears would have been in the exact same situation than the Packers entering the draft and they did what Gutekunst did over the past two days we would be laughing our ***** off because of their incompetence. Unfortunately the joke is on us this time.

Bingo

 

[HardRightEdge]

Fair point.

Thanks. How many times has this been repeated in these pages? File it away. Following the money, here and elsewhere, can be a strong antidote to confirmation bias.

 

[Pugger]

I liked the Love pick and can understand the Dillon pick. Not nearly the guy I would've went with even if RB was the choice to go but ok I get it. A Jones is set to make big money and thats best avoided.

But I will forever condem drafting what is effectively a "FB that can catch" in the 3rd round. Like are you ******* kidding me?

They must feel Sternberger is their pass catching TE and want a better blocking TE in Deguara. Now we can run 2 TE sets with younger guys than Lewis.

 

[Pugger]

Signing Rodgers was of course not a mistake. We want the best QB we can have. Because you think it is not tailored to his strengths, does not make it so. His scrambling abilities seemed to take a sharp hit last year. He will play best off of play action going forward. We had no idea we would be selecting a QB this draft and anyway, this new QB will benefit from sitting on the bench two or three years. Hopefully ARod can stay healthy.

I think that your last sentence should be where the angry posters stick:

The players themselves are not bad. They fit a vision of MLF offense he is attempting to create.

The value is my biggest issue at this point. Many of these players were much much lower grades than their draft pick.

If they liked these guys, they could have collected some additional picks and still got them. What I think we have seen is a GM/coach who has locked into their board, and now is drafting that board, regardless of the flow of the draft.

I get that a lot of us get upset because we feel a draft pick is a bad value if he is taken too early but after the draft is over and the games begin does it really matter where a guy is taken as long as we find the player and he produces?