The other crowd that has gone silent…

[Half Empty]

When I think of guys who Gute has taken in the top 100 picks that I would call developmental (I.e. bets more on talent than skill/production in college), I come up with:

-Lukas Van Ness (1)
-Quay Walker (1)
-Rashan Gary (1)
-Oren Burks (3)

I don’t see that it’s really the problem.

I'm a little confused. Are you saying that the rest of the choices in the top 100 were NOT selected for development but were picked to be of immediate help?

 

[BrokenArrow]

Gary isn't working?

Aren't you paying attention? He was a FIRST ROUND PICK!

 

[Poppa San]

I'm ready to see an end to drafting Georgia players.

I came to the conclusion a few years back that drafting players from top football factories like OSU or Alabama or Georgia is fine if you need a player now. The players have already been coached up to about their best and only physical development and tricks of the trade are left to raise their ceiling. Whereas players from we are students first schools have room to grow. Their floor is so much lower and they might not reach their ceiling for another season or three.

 

[Dantés]

I'm a little confused. Are you saying that the rest of the choices in the top 100 were NOT selected for development but were picked to be of immediate help?

All draft picks are developmental to one degree or another. But there is a spectrum that ranges from extremely raw to extremely pro-ready. The Packers famously favor raw athletes.

The original contention was that Gutekunst’s preference for prospects that are on the highly developmental side of the spectrum is a problem that’s holding the defense back.

I looked at his history of defensive draft picks in the top 100 to see who would fit that criteria in my opinion. Those were the names I came up with. Obviously the other picks were also prospects who needed to develop, but I would argue that they fall more towards the “pro ready” side of the spectrum.

 

[tynimiller]

Aren't you paying attention? He was a FIRST ROUND PICK!

Who played 160 less snaps than Van Ness did this year in his rookie year. Gary also had fewer sacks than LVN did, only measurable Gary was better his rookie year than LVN was percentage of pass rush snaps that got home as he was 1.5% better.

 

[BrokenArrow]

Who played 160 less snaps than Van Ness did this year in his rookie year. Gary also had fewer sacks than LVN did, only measurable Gary was better his rookie year than LVN was percentage of pass rush snaps that got home as he was 1.5% better.

I understand that. It was sarcasm. I was mimicking the people who get all up in a fuss over where guys were drafted.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Gary isn't working?

Gary was 28th in the league in sacks this year and has been incognito since the Detroit game. Most teams in the league have a better pass rusher than Gary. At pick #12 and paying him huge money, you need much more from him. Unfortunately, he's also mediocre against the run. Another problem is that he also didn't produce much his first two years in the league. Most other top half of the first round pass rushers lived up to their draft status much more than Gary. If he was a second or third round pick, he'd be OK but at pick#12, you need more production and he just hasn't risen above middling.

 

[Schultz]

I didn’t see him as an unrefined lump of clay like those others. He was fairly ready to play a big role as a as a rookie. But if one wanted to include him, I wouldn’t balk.

Thanks for your reply. He was kind of both to me.

 

[tynimiller]

Gary was 28th in the league in sacks this year and has been incognito since the Detroit game. Most teams in the league have a better pass rusher than Gary. At pick #12 and paying him huge money, you need much more from him. Unfortunately, he's also mediocre against the run. Another problem is that he also didn't produce much his first two years in the league. Most other top half of the first round pass rushers lived up to their draft status much more than Gary. If he was a second or third round pick, he'd be OK but at pick#12, you need more production and he just hasn't risen above middling.

Sorry but the majority of teams do not have a pass rusher who is a better rusher than Gary. By saying most teams, I'm assuming your implying at least 2/3s of all teams no?

 

[Dantés]

Thanks for your reply. He was kind of both to me.

So if you include him in the list, I don't think it really changes the conclusion because he has to be considered an "incomplete" due to injuries.

 

[Dantés]

Gary was 28th in the league in sacks this year and has been incognito since the Detroit game. Most teams in the league have a better pass rusher than Gary. At pick #12 and paying him huge money, you need much more from him. Unfortunately, he's also mediocre against the run. Another problem is that he also didn't produce much his first two years in the league. Most other top half of the first round pass rushers lived up to their draft status much more than Gary. If he was a second or third round pick, he'd be OK but at pick#12, you need more production and he just hasn't risen above middling.

Gary is in a tough stretch right now-- there's no doubt about it. I don't know if he's playing hurt, if he hit a wall coming back from injury, or what. But what I do know is that the Gary we saw during 2021, 2022, and during the first half of this season was/is a stud edge rusher, a hit as a draft pick for sure, and definitely not the problem with the defensive performance.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Sorry but the majority of teams do not have a pass rusher who is a better rusher than Gary. By saying most teams, I'm assuming your implying at least 2/3s of all teams no?

28th in sacks. A few teams have two pass rushers with more than 9 sacks but most don't. I think it's safe to say if you take the top pass rusher from every team, around 20 to 25 are going to have a better pass rusher. Look at his career numbers. In 5 seasons, Gary has 31 sacks. If that isn't middling what is? Even if you look at his best two full seasons, he's never gone above 10 sacks which shouldn't be too hard in a 17 game season. He is far from elite but is unfortunately taking up a big chunk of the salary cap. The chances of stopping a drive go way up with a sack as compared to a hit or pressure. They matter because they allow a defense to get off the field in a game that is tilted towards the offense.

 

[longtimefan]

28th in sacks. A few teams have two pass rushers with more than 9 sacks but most don't. I think it's safe to say if you take the top pass rusher from every team, around 20 to 25 are going to have a better pass rusher. Look at his career numbers. In 5 seasons, Gary has 31 sacks. If that isn't middling what is? Even if you look at his best two full seasons, he's never gone above 10 sacks which shouldn't be too hard in a 17 game season. He is far from elite but is unfortunately taking up a big chunk of the salary cap. The chances of stopping a drive go way up with a sack as compared to a hit or pressure. They matter because they allow a defense to get off the field in a game that is tilted towards the offense.

23 15 games 9 sacks
2022 9 games. 6 sacks
21 15 games 9.5 sacks
20 12 games 5 sacks
19 9 games 2 sacks

60 games 31.5

 

[longtimefan]

Green Bay Packers edge rusher Rashan Gary has 34 pressures on just 176 pass-rushing snaps and a pass-rush win rate of 25.6 — second best among edge rushers to only Myles Garrett — entering Week 11.Nov 17, 2023

 

[longtimefan]

This was start of this season

In 29 games as a starter, Gary has 87 tackles, 43 quarterback hits and 17 sacks. According to TruMedia, Gary ranks in the top 10 among NFL linebackers in QB hits per game (1.27, fifth), sacks per game (0.51, eighth) and Next Gen Stats pressures per game (2.77, tied for eighth) over the past three seasons.

 

[longtimefan]

@Sanguine camper it isn't just about sacks

As my previous posts reflect that.

 

[tynimiller]

Don’t waste time @longtimefan he literally doesn’t care or think anything matters other then the number of sacks solely.

 

[sschind]

Gary was 28th in the league in sacks this year and has been incognito since the Detroit game. Most teams in the league have a better pass rusher than Gary. At pick #12 and paying him huge money, you need much more from him. Unfortunately, he's also mediocre against the run. Another problem is that he also didn't produce much his first two years in the league. Most other top half of the first round pass rushers lived up to their draft status much more than Gary. If he was a second or third round pick, he'd be OK but at pick#12, you need more production and he just hasn't risen above middling.

The AJ Hawk syndrome.

Green Bay Packers edge rusher Rashan Gary has 34 pressures on just 176 pass-rushing snaps and a pass-rush win rate of 25.6 — second best among edge rushers to only Myles Garrett — entering Week 11.Nov 17, 2023

Im not arguing against you but pressures can be meaningless without knowing the results of the play. I seem to recall at 1 point Love was 4/4 and a TD against pressure vs the cowboys.

Still, I agree with you. Putting pressure on a QB is a good thing and the more you can do it the better your chances.

That said I think sacks can be highly over rated. You have a DL who sacks a QB 4 times on 1st and 2nd downs for a total of 10 Yards and another who stuffs a RB 4 times on 3rd down forcing a punt and who is going to get the accolades.

 

[Dantés]

This is just speculation, but I bet you we find out after the season that Gary is playing through an undisclosed injury.

That, or his body has hit a wall coming back from the ACL.

 

[Sanguine camper]

23 15 games 9 sacks
2022 9 games. 6 sacks
21 15 games 9.5 sacks
20 12 games 5 sacks
19 9 games 2 sacks

60 games 31.5

Basically that's 1/2 sack per game. I would say that's rather weak production from a pick #12. Another problem is he's not especially good against the run and he flashes a great game and then goes incognito. Where has Gary disappeared to the last 6 games?

 

[tynimiller]

Basically that's 1/2 sack per game. I would say that's rather weak production from a pick #12. Another problem is he's not especially good against the run and he flashes a great game and then goes incognito. Where has Gary disappeared to the last 6 games?

Oh my god….you do realize that is an incredible average per game especially considering he barely played much his first year….

If you average anymore than that you’re likely going to be an All Pro all the time.

He for sure has struggled at times growing in run defense, lot of us here especially Dantes has pointed out the struggles of Gary and how he isn’t looking fully healthy.

 

[Arod2gjdd]

Yesterday’s game saw the Packers use more under center offense than any team in any game this season.

People don’t want to hear it, but Rodgers exerted a lot of negative influence on the offense.

Love a QB under center, pun intended.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Oh my god….you do realize that is an incredible average per game especially considering he barely played much his first year….

If you average anymore than that you’re likely going to be an All Pro all the time.

He for sure has struggled at times growing in run defense, lot of us here especially Dantes has pointed out the struggles of Gary and how he isn’t looking fully healthy.

He was 28 th in sacks this year playing 15 games. Look at the sacks per game for the top 10 pass rushers. I would venture to say they are better. Gary is getting the big bucks but only put up 9 sacks. That's not good enough, especially for a pick#12.Some context is required. I would be thrilled if a lower round pick would get 9 sacks in a season. That doesn't excuse Gary from not living up to his draft position nor his big contract.

 

[longtimefan]

Basically that's 1/2 sack per game. I would say that's rather weak production from a pick #12. Another problem is he's not especially good against the run and he flashes a great game and then goes incognito. Where has Gary disappeared to the last 6 games?

Reggie White averaged .85 per game for his career

Bruce Smith? .71 per game

 

[gopkrs]

Now I remember why I was going to block Sanguine camper on the night we drafted Love.