The Last Drive vs. Miami

[Oski]

The way I look at it is this-

We fail on 4th down, even if we hold the Dolphins and get the ball back, best we can do is tie and hope to win in OT, which is a crapshoot.

We kick the FG and can potentially win the game if our D holds.

It worked out, I think it was the right call.

I'd argue it's a hell of a lot easier to score on 4th down then it is to expect to both hold the dolphins and get the ball back, drive the length of the field AGAIN, and score. btw. going for it on 4th down doesn't preclude kicking a game winning kick later in the 4th quarter. the whole premise of kicking it is the ASSUMPTION you don't get it. Pure McCarthy conservatism again.

 

[Bensalama21]

Also said he didn't tell any of the other players. I'm glad that worked out, but that's a dumb call if no one else knew... All the props in the world to Adams to realize what happened and still get OB without knowing ahead of time. If he manages to make the catch but not get OB, the game is probably over.

How is it a dumb call? If Adams wasn't paying attention, it's not like there was a rush coming at Rodgers... Rodgers could have just thrown it straight over Adams head if nobody was ready.

 

[ls1bob]

I thought at the time the FG was a good call. Offense hasn't done much in the 4th quarter and if we had went down on a sustained drive like we did and came away with zero points it would have sucked the life out of an already fatigued team. We make the FG and don't turn it over on downs and it is plus for us and we have just a smidge of hope instead of big let down if we don't score a TD

 

[Oski]

I thought at the time the FG was a good call. Offense hasn't done much in the 4th quarter and if we had went down on a sustained drive like we did and came away with zero points it would have sucked the life out of an already fatigued team. We make the FG and don't turn it over on downs and it is plus for us and we have just a smidge of hope instead of big let down if we don't score a TD

The offense having not done much is a reason to go for it. The reason being that it's a lot easier to score from the red zone than it is to drive the length of the field to score. it worked out because of Rodgers brilliance, but it was absolutely lowered the chances of us winning that game.

 

[Ceodore]

How is it a dumb call? If Adams wasn't paying attention, it's not like there was a rush coming at Rodgers... Rodgers could have just thrown it straight over Adams head if nobody was ready.

like i said, if he catches the ball and gets tackled in bounds, the game is over. And for what? a first down?

here's an article that explores it a bit more:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/aaron-rodgers-spike-play-actually-162300466.html

again, obviously happy it worked out, but it could have ended very poorly.

 

[Darth Garfunkel]

LOL you people couldn't see the Miami players just completely lay down on the last drive.

that's all that happened. It was so Miami could cover the spread and nothing more

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[Shawnsta3]

IMO this thread is just baiting for an argument.

I'm thrilled that they won, and thrilled that the decision worked out. I would have went for it, with the way the D was playing at the time. I want to credit the D with a great stop on 3rd down to give us the ball back, but I can't disregard the fact that it wasn't so much about that as the fact that the Dolphins simply conceded 3rd down to kill some clock. Had they passed and converted, the perception would be that Mike conceded the game with the FG and never gave the offense a chance to try it. That's the difference between one outcome and another, so I would think it would be nice to just all enjoy the victory and be appreciative of the team of what went into it, rather than rubbing it in the faces of everyone who didn't agree with the decision.

None of us agree with every decision that is made. It doesn't mean we were wrong when it works out the other way, and it certainly doesn't mean we are more qualified than the coaching staff when it works out our way.

My intention wasn't to bait for an argument. A thread would have most likely been made either way being how crucial the decision to make was. The thread's original post favors McCarthy's decision because it worked, as I think it should. This is after all, a results driven business.

You are mostly correct in the fact that the Dolphins conceded third down by running, though they did pass on second down so time wise there is really no difference between run-pass-run and run-run-pass as many teams would have done. And not to say running is always conceding as once the Packers got the ball back, with even less time they managed to run and gain over 10 yards.

And as you can see in the screenshots someone clearly did say, "mark my words".

 

[adambr2]

My intention wasn't to bait for an argument. A thread would have most likely been made either way being how crucial the decision to make was. The thread's original post favors McCarthy's decision because it worked, as I think it should. This is after all, a results driven business.

You are mostly correct in the fact that the Dolphins conceded third down by running, though they did pass on second down so time wise there is really no difference between run-pass-run and run-run-pass as many teams would have done. And not to say running is always conceding as once the Packers got the ball back, with even less time they managed to run and gain over 10 yards.

And as you can see in the screenshots someone clearly did say, "mark my words".

Might have been me. I'm not surprised. In situations like the last half hour of the game yesterday, emotion tends to rule the moment for some. I definitely fall into that category.

 

[Terre Haute Cheesehead]

Amazing how Adams somehow managed to keep his body moving forwards while going out of bounds on that fake spike play. A lot of times even if you make it out of bounds the refs will keep the clock moving if they think the defender stopped your forward progress.

That kid is money.....as good as advertised. You're right, he doesn't get out of bounds and the clock runs out.

A lot of very good things happened for us on that last drive, no doubt.

The play call to run it on first down with Starks making a good cutback for 18 yards.

Langs huge fumble recovery.

Miami calling the timeout with a minute left.

The clutch pass to Nelson on 4th & 10.

Starks run after the catch on 3rd & 10 to get to the sticks for a big first down.

The "non-spike" decision and as you mentioned, Adams ability to get out of bounds. HUGE!

Then we have Quarless, who at times on this board has taken a beating (but haven't they all at some point),
no sooner turns around and hauls in that bullet pass for the TD. Looked easy, but I've seen players drop them
when the game is on the line.

And let's not forget Hyde's nice 18 yard punt return to get the ball out to the 40 to start the drive.

Yeah, there was some rolling of the dice on a couple of decisions, but it all worked out in the end. And I have to agree that the decision to kick the FG was a no-brainer. Points on the scoreboard. I've just seen it done too many times by HC's. MM made the decision at the time to play to win the game and it worked. We'll continue to be armchair Monday morning QB's 'till Hell freezes over and we'll continue to argue decisions as it's our human nature to do so.

 

[easyk83]

I'd argue it's a hell of a lot easier to score on 4th down then it is to expect to both hold the dolphins and get the ball back, drive the length of the field AGAIN, and score. btw. going for it on 4th down doesn't preclude kicking a game winning kick later in the 4th quarter. the whole premise of kicking it is the ASSUMPTION you don't get it. Pure McCarthy conservatism again.

I disagree, as Saint Vince always said Battles are won and lost in the hearts of men. If Green Bay goes for it on fourth and 6 and gets stopped what happens to our defense from a mental standpoint. Would they have the fire to go out and shut the Dolphins down if Green Bay turns it over on 4th and 6?

 

[Oski]

I disagree, as Saint Vince always said Battles are won and lost in the hearts of men. If Green Bay goes for it on fourth and 6 and gets stopped what happens to our defense from a mental standpoint. Would they have the fire to go out and shut the Dolphins down if Green Bay turns it over on 4th and 6?

well for one thing the d would have gotten the ball with better field position. and why would they lose their mental edge? I'm not following that logic. Either way they know they have to stop Miami.

 

[easyk83]

well for one thing the d would have gotten the ball with better field position. and why would they lose their mental edge? I'm not following that logic. Either way they know they have to stop Miami.

You've never noticed how momentum can shift in a game?

 

[Oski]

You've never noticed how momentum can shift in a game?

You could easily argue that by going the more ball less way of kicking the field goal that could kill momentum. and btw there is no statistical evidence that momentum makes a difference in the nfl.

http://grantland.com/features/bill-barnwell-theory-momentum-football/

btw this article specifically talks about going for it and not getting it.

 

[Forget Favre]

Maybe I'm being biased or just seeing it through green and yellow glasses and even though we have yet to get through MNF tonight, for now I really think this was the best drive and final score of all the games in all of the NFL.
I've pretty much watched all the other highlights but this was just soooooo freakin incredible and amazing.
TJ Lang falling on the fumble.
The faked spike.
The last few seconds TD for the win.
Does anything else in any other games this weekend come close to this or surpass it?

 

[El Guapo]

Does anything else in any other games this weekend come close to this or surpass it?

The sound of the home crowd booing at the Vikings game?

 

[weeds]

Also said he didn't tell any of the other players. I'm glad that worked out, but that's a dumb call if no one else knew... All the props in the world to Adams to realize what happened and still get OB without knowing ahead of time. If he manages to make the catch but not get OB, the game is probably over.

Not dumb at all. Matter of fact, if you're going to pull something like that, you don't want your blockers telegraphing anything but a spike... if Rodgers had told anyone, that element of total surprise would have been compromised. These guys scour film looking for any tendencies. Took balls to make that call. Did you see McCarthy's expression when Rodgers came off the field? It was priceless.

 

[adambr2]

The sound of the home crowd booing at the Vikings game?

No doubt they were quite disappointed, considering that many of them had convinced themselves that once they got All-Pro Big Nuts Teddy Bridgewater back, they were going to take over this division.

 

[longtimefan]

and why would they lose their mental edge? I'm not following that logic. Either way they know they have to stop Miami.

If the off doesnt score anything, our def might have had some wind taken out of their sails

With at least 3 points our def might have had some life injected into them.

It sucks that as pros they might need that but sometimes all it takes is a FG to get them motivated

 

[Oski]

If the off doesnt score anything, our def might have had some wind taken out of their sails

With at least 3 points our def might have had some life injected into them.

It sucks that as pros they might need that but sometimes all it takes is a FG to get them motivated

I'm not seeing it.

 

[Forget Favre]

It is the way it went and I'm glad it went that way and wouldn't have wanted anything to change.

 

[JBlood]

http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/tools/4th-down-calculator

Fill in the blanks on the 4th down decision: down 7 with 4 minutes to go, on the opponent's 12; 4th and 6. The probability of winning was .15 if we make the 4th down; .22 if we make the field goal.

If you believe this calculator, MM made the right decision. But it took a miracle drive for it to work.

 

[El Guapo]

You must be logged in to see this image or video!

 

[PackCrazed4]

Just got back from the Miami game, it was my first road game ever and man did we pick a great one to attend! We even had endzone seats where the final drive culminated. I've never perspired so much in my life... mostly because of the stress of the final drive, but there was also this near 100-degree heat index that was killer as well (haha). It felt just like the Bears game last year despite there not being any playoff repercussions on the line, and yet there was just as much intensity and excitement (nearly lost an earring when my entire family jumped up and down and ripped it off my ear. I'm fine, I promise )

The Miami fans were also very cordial and easy going. A few tried to talk "trash" but it was almost difficult for them to find things to even say. There was an incredible Packer fan turn out, we felt like we were maybe 40% of the crowd and managed to lead at least 5 "Go Pack Go" chants. Overall, great game, or at least a great ending

 

[El Guapo]

It's always great to get the first-hand reports

 

[OldSchool101]

The def did an awesome job getting two turnovers and the offense only got 3 points....Didnt the Def stop them 4 times inside the 5 and gave the ball back to the offense?

yet people are ridiculing the def...

I think "ridiculing". Might be a strong word here.. It's more like when you're outside and your buddy pees in your direction