Minnesota Vikings

[El Guapo]

I've watched most of the Vikings games this season, including being at the Minnesota/Philthadelphia game a month ago. Here is my assessment:
- JJ McCarthy has the chutzpah to be a very good quarterback, but is still far from figuring it all out. However, when there's a few minutes left in the game he seems to put it all together and make the plays to put the Vikings in position to win.
- Kevin O'Connell (KOC) has been great at enhancing and resurrecting QB careers, but this is the first time that he's dealt with building up a rookie QB. KOC has struggled to find plays that fit McCarthy's style, and as KOC said this week, McCarthy is doing all of the right things in practice but isn't playing with the same consistency on game day.
- Jefferson, Addison, and Hockensen are still incredible threats. Addison seems to be connecting better with McCarthy right now.
- Aaron Jones is still running the ball as good as he can, but is not the same threat that he was 3yrs ago with the Packers
- The Vikings offensive line is a wreck. They brought in two new studs this year, but nearly everyone has been hurt. On the left side, Darrisaw is starting to get back into form after missing the first part of the season. McCarthy's struggles as well as Aaron Jones' can all be traced pretty easily to the bad offensive line play.

- The Vikings defense is still led by Brian Flores. The guy puts together fantastic defenses that confuse quarterbacks, young and old (but especially young). He's been working miracles with a team that isn't loaded with studs as in the past.
- Harrison Smith is old but savvy at safety. He still does a good job of patrolling the middle but can be taken advantage of if he has to match up in coverage.
- Andrew Van Ginkel just came back (and I believe Blake Cashman too) which has really helped their defense. I didn't get to watch the Chicago game this past week, but he seems to have injected life back into the entire defense since the Detroit game two weeks ago.
- Their secondary has dealt with a lot of injuries this season, so hopefully the Packers can finally have some luck with the downfield passing game on 1st and 2nd down instead of relying on 4th down prayer balls.

 

[gopkrs]

I've watched most of the Vikings games this season, including being at the Minnesota/Philthadelphia game a month ago. Here is my assessment:
- JJ McCarthy has the chutzpah to be a very good quarterback, but is still far from figuring it all out. However, when there's a few minutes left in the game he seems to put it all together and make the plays to put the Vikings in position to win.
- Kevin O'Connell (KOC) has been great at enhancing and resurrecting QB careers, but this is the first time that he's dealt with building up a rookie QB. KOC has struggled to find plays that fit McCarthy's style, and as KOC said this week, McCarthy is doing all of the right things in practice but isn't playing with the same consistency on game day.
- Jefferson, Addison, and Hockensen are still incredible threats. Addison seems to be connecting better with McCarthy right now.
- Aaron Jones is still running the ball as good as he can, but is not the same threat that he was 3yrs ago with the Packers
- The Vikings offensive line is a wreck. They brought in two new studs this year, but nearly everyone has been hurt. On the left side, Darrisaw is starting to get back into form after missing the first part of the season. McCarthy's struggles as well as Aaron Jones' can all be traced pretty easily to the bad offensive line play.

- The Vikings defense is still led by Brian Flores. The guy puts together fantastic defenses that confuse quarterbacks, young and old (but especially young). He's been working miracles with a team that isn't loaded with studs as in the past.
- Harrison Smith is old but savvy at safety. He still does a good job of patrolling the middle but can be taken advantage of if he has to match up in coverage.
- Andrew Van Ginkel just came back (and I believe Blake Cashman too) which has really helped their defense. I didn't get to watch the Chicago game this past week, but he seems to have injected life back into the entire defense since the Detroit game two weeks ago.
- Their secondary has dealt with a lot of injuries this season, so hopefully the Packers can finally have some luck with the downfield passing game on 1st and 2nd down instead of relying on 4th down prayer balls.

I hope we can keep McCarthy on edge early. But for sure he has some good receivers. And of course stop the run. If there are small holes; Jones can still get through them in a hurry.

 

[milani]

I've watched most of the Vikings games this season, including being at the Minnesota/Philthadelphia game a month ago. Here is my assessment:
- JJ McCarthy has the chutzpah to be a very good quarterback, but is still far from figuring it all out. However, when there's a few minutes left in the game he seems to put it all together and make the plays to put the Vikings in position to win.
- Kevin O'Connell (KOC) has been great at enhancing and resurrecting QB careers, but this is the first time that he's dealt with building up a rookie QB. KOC has struggled to find plays that fit McCarthy's style, and as KOC said this week, McCarthy is doing all of the right things in practice but isn't playing with the same consistency on game day.
- Jefferson, Addison, and Hockensen are still incredible threats. Addison seems to be connecting better with McCarthy right now.
- Aaron Jones is still running the ball as good as he can, but is not the same threat that he was 3yrs ago with the Packers
- The Vikings offensive line is a wreck. They brought in two new studs this year, but nearly everyone has been hurt. On the left side, Darrisaw is starting to get back into form after missing the first part of the season. McCarthy's struggles as well as Aaron Jones' can all be traced pretty easily to the bad offensive line play.

- The Vikings defense is still led by Brian Flores. The guy puts together fantastic defenses that confuse quarterbacks, young and old (but especially young). He's been working miracles with a team that isn't loaded with studs as in the past.
- Harrison Smith is old but savvy at safety. He still does a good job of patrolling the middle but can be taken advantage of if he has to match up in coverage.
- Andrew Van Ginkel just came back (and I believe Blake Cashman too) which has really helped their defense. I didn't get to watch the Chicago game this past week, but he seems to have injected life back into the entire defense since the Detroit game two weeks ago.
- Their secondary has dealt with a lot of injuries this season, so hopefully the Packers can finally have some luck with the downfield passing game on 1st and 2nd down instead of relying on 4th down prayer balls.

The Bears ran the ball well, which is the key. They had to settle for FGs but did enough defensively to control most of the game. Caleb can drive a defense like Minnesota crazy because he does not react like conventional QBs. The Bears use the TE and Caleb gets to the edge.
JJ is a year behind Caleb. If he does not get hurt he will be at the same level a year from now. He, too, can be unconventional. He will make a great play and then an ugly one. Expect the Vikings to blitz a lot. Brooks will probably get more PT since someone has to block for Jordan. With 2 games next week we really need Jacobs for some of it. And what will we get from our TEs.

 

[tynimiller]

Jordan Love vs Vikings

2022 Week 1 - 4 of 5 for 65 Yards / 0TD / 0INT
2022 Week 17 - 2 of 3 for 9 yards / 0TD / 0INT
2023 Week 8 - 24 of 41 for 229 / 1TD / 1 INT
2023 Week 17 - 24 of 33 for 256 Yards / 3 TDs / 0 INTs
2024 Week 4 - 32 of 54 for 389 Yards / 4 TDs / 3 INTs
2024 Week 17 - 19 of 30 for 185 Yards / 1 TD / 0 INTs

TOTALS - 105 of 166 for 1,133 Yards / 9 TDs / 4 INTs

Vikings have contributed 14.3% of Love's INTs in his career but against Flores in truth this is a pretty solid statline...and Love can cook this defense and has proven it in the past.

 

[tynimiller]

Minnesota's Defense however is not as strong as normal some say but still pretty dang good, BUT as noted some of that might be better with guys returning from injury...

- They are currently allowing 65% completion rate through the air
- They like us are barely taking the ball away...they have 9 total TOs, but one fewer INT
- They are a top 10 team however in yards per play allowed at 5.1 (good for being tied for 8th) *we are top3 at 4.7
- Pro Football Reference has them listed as the highest percentage blitzing team at 43.9% (THEY LIVE FEAST OR FAMINE MENTALITY) - more than twice the rate given to the Packers
- Top pressure team despite not getting home alot for sacks.

 

[Heyjoe4]

Minnesota's Defense however is not as strong as normal some say but still pretty dang good, BUT as noted some of that might be better with guys returning from injury...

- They are currently allowing 65% completion rate through the air
- They like us are barely taking the ball away...they have 9 total TOs, but one fewer INT
- They are a top 10 team however in yards per play allowed at 5.1 (good for being tied for 8th) *we are top3 at 4.7
- Pro Football Reference has them listed as the highest percentage blitzing team at 43.9% (THEY LIVE FEAST OR FAMINE MENTALITY) - more than twice the rate given to the Packers
- Top pressure team despite not getting home alot for sacks.

Interesting factoids, thanks.

At this point, I don't know what to expect from week to week from the Packers. A popular hypothesis is that they play up or down to their level of competition. Not sure I buy that. IMO the game plan needs to be "dumbed down" a bit. Too any cute plays for me.

Love is a very good QB, even if that isn't always obvious from watching him. And even with Kraft, Reed, and Jenkins out, the team has the talent to compete on offense. Certainly the run defense is hit or miss. My only complaint about Love is that he still plays "too fast" and in the process missed open WRs who are a second or third option.

I'm frustrated with the team, we all are. Wish I had better ideas on how to fix. That job falls to MLF. Now is the time to start building momentum for the playoffs. The Queens present a solid challenge for the Packers. I'd like to see a complete game and improvement in pass defense. The CBs have played surprisingly well over the last few weeks.

Bring on the Queens. Let's get that "get well" game that looks like week 1 against Detroit.

 

[Heyjoe4]

The Bears ran the ball well, which is the key. They had to settle for FGs but did enough defensively to control most of the game. Caleb can drive a defense like Minnesota crazy because he does not react like conventional QBs. The Bears use the TE and Caleb gets to the edge.
JJ is a year behind Caleb. If he does not get hurt he will be at the same level a year from now. He, too, can be unconventional. He will make a great play and then an ugly one. Expect the Vikings to blitz a lot. Brooks will probably get more PT since someone has to block for Jordan. With 2 games next week we really need Jacobs for some of it. And what will we get from our TEs.

It might be a good idea to rest Jacobs this week. Wilson has done well and represents a change of pace. The team will definitely need Jacobs for the rest of the season. A little rest could help a lot.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I hope we can keep McCarthy on edge early. But for sure he has some good receivers. And of course stop the run. If there are small holes; Jones can still get through them in a hurry.

Agree gopkrs. Stopping or slowing the run seems to be the biggest thing in need of improvement. They allowed Dowdle and the Giants' RB to carve the defense into pieces.

Jones is dangerous every time he gets the ball, but he's also a step slower, and always an injury risk.

Whatever. Stop the run, win the game. Not quite that simple, but close enough.

 

[Heyjoe4]

I've watched most of the Vikings games this season, including being at the Minnesota/Philthadelphia game a month ago. Here is my assessment:
- JJ McCarthy has the chutzpah to be a very good quarterback, but is still far from figuring it all out. However, when there's a few minutes left in the game he seems to put it all together and make the plays to put the Vikings in position to win.
- Kevin O'Connell (KOC) has been great at enhancing and resurrecting QB careers, but this is the first time that he's dealt with building up a rookie QB. KOC has struggled to find plays that fit McCarthy's style, and as KOC said this week, McCarthy is doing all of the right things in practice but isn't playing with the same consistency on game day.
- Jefferson, Addison, and Hockensen are still incredible threats. Addison seems to be connecting better with McCarthy right now.
- Aaron Jones is still running the ball as good as he can, but is not the same threat that he was 3yrs ago with the Packers
- The Vikings offensive line is a wreck. They brought in two new studs this year, but nearly everyone has been hurt. On the left side, Darrisaw is starting to get back into form after missing the first part of the season. McCarthy's struggles as well as Aaron Jones' can all be traced pretty easily to the bad offensive line play.

- The Vikings defense is still led by Brian Flores. The guy puts together fantastic defenses that confuse quarterbacks, young and old (but especially young). He's been working miracles with a team that isn't loaded with studs as in the past.
- Harrison Smith is old but savvy at safety. He still does a good job of patrolling the middle but can be taken advantage of if he has to match up in coverage.
- Andrew Van Ginkel just came back (and I believe Blake Cashman too) which has really helped their defense. I didn't get to watch the Chicago game this past week, but he seems to have injected life back into the entire defense since the Detroit game two weeks ago.
- Their secondary has dealt with a lot of injuries this season, so hopefully the Packers can finally have some luck with the downfield passing game on 1st and 2nd down instead of relying on 4th down prayer balls.

Nice summary EG, thanks.

Other than Barkley, the run defense has been horrible in losses to Carolina and a narrow win against the Giants. Did Hafley or MLF not see this as a big part of the Giants' game plan and fail to address. I mean these teams ran all day against the Packers, controlling TOP.

Stop the run against the Queens and all else should fall in place. Catching passes is also a good thing........

 

[chemist]

Interesting factoids, thanks.

At this point, I don't know what to expect from week to week from the Packers. A popular hypothesis is that they play up or down to their level of competition. Not sure I buy that. IMO the game plan needs to be "dumbed down" a bit. Too any cute plays for me.

Love is a very good QB, even if that isn't always obvious from watching him. And even with Kraft, Reed, and Jenkins out, the team has the talent to compete on offense. Certainly the run defense is hit or miss. My only complaint about Love is that he still plays "too fast" and in the process missed open WRs who are a second or third option.

I'm frustrated with the team, we all are. Wish I had better ideas on how to fix. That job falls to MLF. Now is the time to start building momentum for the playoffs. The Queens present a solid challenge for the Packers. I'd like to see a complete game and improvement in pass defense. The CBs have played surprisingly well over the last few weeks.

Bring on the Queens. Let's get that "get well" game that looks like week 1 against Detroit.

MLF has been struggling for quite a while. Its like he was lost in a fog of ideas not knowing which to choose and which to leave out. I believe the giants game has cleared that fog and provided us a way forward.
I feel we now have a good idea of what style of offense would work for us with the current lineup of players we have available on offense.
That would be:
Love under center, play-action, RPO, with a few trick plays sprinkled in to keep the opponents honest. That setup should yield us approx 27 ppg. We need our D to keep the opponent under that number. Certainly doable from what I have seen

We have several division games coming up. This is our chance to show our stuff and take back the top of the division.

Furthermore We have the lions on thanksgiving. Recently the eagles Def held the lions to just 9 pts. I feel our Def is on a par with the eagles Def so if we follow the plan the opportunity is there for us to take down the lions a 2nd time this season.

 

[Schultz]

Just like I felt last week's Giants game was the most winnable game left on the schedule, I feel the same about this week's game. A must win IMO.

 

[milani]

Interesting factoids, thanks.

At this point, I don't know what to expect from week to week from the Packers. A popular hypothesis is that they play up or down to their level of competition. Not sure I buy that. IMO the game plan needs to be "dumbed down" a bit. Too any cute plays for me.

Love is a very good QB, even if that isn't always obvious from watching him. And even with Kraft, Reed, and Jenkins out, the team has the talent to compete on offense. Certainly the run defense is hit or miss. My only complaint about Love is that he still plays "too fast" and in the process missed open WRs who are a second or third option.

I'm frustrated with the team, we all are. Wish I had better ideas on how to fix. That job falls to MLF. Now is the time to start building momentum for the playoffs. The Queens present a solid challenge for the Packers. I'd like to see a complete game and improvement in pass defense. The CBs have played surprisingly well over the last few weeks.

Bring on the Queens. Let's get that "get well" game that looks like week 1 against Detroit.

For the Vikings this is a must game. If they lose the chances of making the postseason diminish tremendously. So the Packers have to ignore the records because their tough put of the schedule is now.

 

[milani]

Just like I felt last week's Giants game was the most winnable game left on the schedule, I feel the same about this week's game. A must win IMO.

This week not so much. The Vikings are a better team than the Giants. The Vikings are playing for all the marbles. The Giants were playing for no marbles. And home field is not such a plus in this series.

 

[Magooch]

JJ McCarthy is currently by FAR the least efficient QB in the league this season.

-35th out of 35 qualified QBs in Adjusted EPA/play

-35th in standard EPA/play

-34th in passing success rate (defined as plays with an EPA of greater than zero. Roughly 39% of his passing plays have a positive EPA while 61% are zero or negative EPA)

- 35th in completion percentage

- 35th in expected completion percentage

- 35th in CPOE (Yes....he has the lowest expected completion percentage in the league, and he has the lowest *actual* completion percentage, AND is performing below expectation to a degree that is worse than everyone else too. In other words, he has the lowest "bar" of expectation in the league and is still the worst-performing relative to that bar. It is really kind of remarkable honestly)

But interestingly is also 1st out of 35 qualified QBs in ADOT/air yards

PFF additionally has him as 43rd out of 43 eligible passers for overall "accuracy rate," and is tied with Bryce Young for the most "catchable but inaccurate" throws.
He is 35th out of 35 in AY/A, 32nd in Y/A, 35th in passer rating, 34th in QBR, 31st in NY/A, and 35th in ANY/A, 35th in "bad throw" percentage (and similarly 35th in "on target" throw percentage)

For a little context, Justin Fields - who just got benched and is pretty universally regarded as not-very-good QB this year - is ranked 31/35 in EPA....yet his EPA/play is roughly 5x more effective than McCarthy this year. Even guys like Dillon Gabriel (~2x), Geno Smith (~3x), and Spencer Rattler (~22x!) have been appreciably more effective

 

[milani]

JJ McCarthy is currently by FAR the least efficient QB in the league this season.

-35th out of 35 qualified QBs in Adjusted EPA/play

-35th in standard EPA/play

-34th in passing success rate (defined as plays with an EPA of greater than zero. Roughly 39% of his passing plays have a positive EPA while 61% are zero or negative EPA)

- 35th in completion percentage

- 35th in expected completion percentage

- 35th in CPOE (Yes....he has the lowest expected completion percentage in the league, and he has the lowest *actual* completion percentage, AND is performing below expectation to a degree that is worse than everyone else too. In other words, he has the lowest "bar" of expectation in the league and is still the worst-performing relative to that bar. It is really kind of remarkable honestly)

But interestingly is also 1st out of 35 qualified QBs in ADOT/air yards

PFF additionally has him as 43rd out of 43 eligible passers for overall "accuracy rate," and is tied with Bryce Young for the most "catchable but inaccurate" throws.
He is 35th out of 35 in AY/A, 32nd in Y/A, 35th in passer rating, 34th in QBR, 31st in NY/A, and 35th in ANY/A, 35th in "bad throw" percentage (and similarly 35th in "on target" throw percentage)

For a little context, Justin Fields - who just got benched and is pretty universally regarded as not-very-good QB this year - is ranked 31/35 in EPA....yet his EPA/play is roughly 5x more effective than McCarthy this year. Even guys like Dillon Gabriel (~2x), Geno Smith (~3x), and Spencer Rattler (~22x!) have been appreciably more effective

JJ has not been on the field continuously enough yet. Like Caleb last year the Vikings need to ride with him in 2025. Then see if he has made progress next year. The challenge for the Vikings is keeping him from running himself into injury and putting in a game plan suited to his style. He is capable of torching a defense with his darts. But against smarter, disguised defenses he can be baited into mistakes.

 

[Poppa San]

The Vikings offensive line is a wreck. They brought in two new studs this year, but nearly everyone has been hurt. On the left side, Darrisaw is starting to get back into form after missing the first part of the season. McCarthy's struggles as well as Aaron Jones' can all be traced pretty easily to the bad offensive line play.

Just listened to a radio discussion with "voice of the Vikings" Paul Allen. If I heard correctly he says this years O-line is the best Vikings O-line the Packers will have seen since the Favre era.

 

[milani]

Just listened to a radio discussion with "voice of the Vikings" Paul Allen. If I heard correctly he says this years O-line is the best Vikings O-line the Packers will have seen since the Favre era.

Well, that is good to know. But do the results say that? The line was good in the AP days. And I would say it was better when Dalvin Cook was there. If this line is so good why did Carson Wentz get smashed? And why does JJ have to take off and run so much? The lowly Atlanta Falcons spent a lot of time in the Vikings backfield early this season. They are 4-6. Last year at this time they only had like 2 losses.

 

[Guacamole]

On paper, this should be a 35-13 game. But the way MLF is calling plays, it'll be a nail biter

 

[El Guapo]

Just listened to a radio discussion with "voice of the Vikings" Paul Allen. If I heard correctly he says this years O-line is the best Vikings O-line the Packers will have seen since the Favre era.

I actually like listening to Paul Allen discuss football. He's very intelligent. I hate listening to him call a game. It's like listening to pestilent 13yr old get too emotionally high and low.

That said, one needs to factor in whom Paul Allen is talking to, because he freely spews garbage and says things to get rises out of people. Part of it is an act, but if PA said this is the best O-line then you can't believe it. Ask ANYBODY who is a Vikings fan (where's Raptorman??), this O-line has had a lot of trouble in pass protection.

 

[milani]

I actually like listening to Paul Allen discuss football. He's very intelligent. I hate listening to him call a game. It's like listening to pestilent 13yr old get too emotionally high and low.

That said, one needs to factor in whom Paul Allen is talking to, because he freely spews garbage and says things to get rises out of people. Part of it is an act, but if PA said this is the best O-line then you can't believe it. Ask ANYBODY who is a Vikings fan (where's Raptorman??), this O-line has had a lot of trouble in pass protection.

2003! " McCown steps up. He's all alone. He fires into the end zone! Caught! No! Touchdown! No! No! The Cardinals just knocked the Vikings out of the playoffs! "

 

[gopkrs]

I'm going to try and watch Morgan a bit. I've been seeing him get pushed into the backfield with not too much effort. On his heels. If that happens again; I'd say he isn't strong enough to play guard.

 

[Sanguine camper]

Vikings fans need to be warned that a career day by McCarthy doesn't mean much in the long term. The Packers just have a way of making struggling QB's look great. Bryce Young as an example. I expect McCarthy to look like a completely different QB that has had trouble with accuracy so far.

Inexperienced QB's struggle with pressure even more so than veterans. Putting pressure on McCarthy is the ticket to a Packers win. The Packers pass rush, however, has been so anemic the past three weeks that McCarthy should have all day to throw.

 

[milani]

Vikings fans need to be warned that a career day by McCarthy doesn't mean much in the long term. The Packers just have a way of making struggling QB's look great. Bryce Young as an example. I expect McCarthy to look like a completely different QB that has had trouble with accuracy so far.

Inexperienced QB's struggle with pressure even more so than veterans. Putting pressure on McCarthy is the ticket to a Packers win. The Packers pass rush, however, has been so anemic the past three weeks that McCarthy should have all day to throw.

Even if he does not have time he will take off in any direction.

 

[Magooch]

The thing is though that time to throw hasn't really mattered for McCarthy. In fact he has had the 3rd highest time to throw in the league amongst qualifying players (Caleb Williams 3.12s, Brock Purdy 2.95s, JJ McCarthy 2.89s) and he is still by far the least accurate and least efficient passer in the league right now, as above.
Moreover, he is 18th in scramble percentage and 21st in QB rush EPA, so not exactly a lethal weapon with his legs either.

I do not expect the Packers are going to provide him with dramatically more time than the already-generous time he's been allotted, and even if they do I am not sure it is going to make a fundamental difference. McCarthy's issues are not really pressure-generated, if that makes sense.

For some points of comparison,
Love is 12th in time to throw at 2.7 seconds, 21st in scramble percentage, and 10th in QB rush EPA

But, of course, caveat is that you can produce a few statistical measures for why we "should" have dominated just about every game thus far; obviously it has not always played out like that in reality.

 

[Heyjoe4]

MLF has been struggling for quite a while. Its like he was lost in a fog of ideas not knowing which to choose and which to leave out. I believe the giants game has cleared that fog and provided us a way forward.
I feel we now have a good idea of what style of offense would work for us with the current lineup of players we have available on offense.
That would be:
Love under center, play-action, RPO, with a few trick plays sprinkled in to keep the opponents honest. That setup should yield us approx 27 ppg. We need our D to keep the opponent under that number. Certainly doable from what I have seen

We have several division games coming up. This is our chance to show our stuff and take back the top of the division.

Furthermore We have the lions on thanksgiving. Recently the eagles Def held the lions to just 9 pts. I feel our Def is on a par with the eagles Def so if we follow the plan the opportunity is there for us to take down the lions a 2nd time this season.

You are correct about MLF - he has been lost in a "fog of ideas". I think that makes the case for having an OC who calls then plays, and a HC who oversees everything. MLF has been little more than an OC with an HC title. I don't think it works for him.

I hope your right and the Giants' game was a "get right" game. I didn't see as many downfield throws - I don't mind them, but it they need to be opportunity based, like no single-high safety on Golden or Watson. Take that match up all day. It just doesn't present itself often.

There are 5 games left in the conference, with the Vikings and Lions up next. Beating the Vikings at home is critical (well, I said the same about the Panthers.....).

We are at a boom or bust point. The team can probably stay relevant with a W against the Queens and a L against the Lions - but I think you're right, the Lions are beatable.